Russia v Ukraine

[Bruce Spanner]

1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

 

The Italians are pro Putin and possibly the French will be soon too. 

 

You have to take your hats off to the Russians, they've used our own weaknesses against us and completely dismantled our political and social way of life in less than 20 years. 

 

It's impossible to watch the Republican convention and not think that's a beaten country. 

 

Listen to yesterdays ‘Newsagents’ podcast and Maitlis is at an absolute loss.

 

They’re utterly lost, not even in just an ideological and political way, they’ve lost logic and reason and their grasp on reality is gone.

 

How, and even if, we come back from this I have no idea. 

[Section_31]

10 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

 

Listen to yesterdays ‘Newsagents’ podcast and Maitlis is at an absolute loss.

 

They’re utterly lost, not even in just an ideological and political way, they’ve lost logic and reason and their grasp on reality is gone.

 

How, and even if, we come back from this I have no idea. 

 

Yeah I saw that, she looked flummoxed - we're in full blown Louis Theroux territory. 

[M_B]

4 hours ago, HazelyCosmicJove said:

 If Trump withdraws from NATO does the clock start clicking towards the day when Russia has re-armed/re-equipped and has a pop at a NATO country? 

 

If Trump withdraws from NATO then he really is Putin's man and we can say goodbye to Moldova and the Baltics.

[Section_31]

You'll end up with three spheres of influence, US, China or Russia and everyone will be in one or the other. The UK not being in the EU will make things a bit extra shit. 

[JagSquared]

5 hours ago, M_B said:

 

If Trump withdraws from NATO then he really is Putin's man and we can say goodbye to Moldova and the Baltics.

I’m a novice but I just can’t see it. Their military is absolutely knackered it will take a decade or More to recover and that’s while they will likely have a large military occupation sapping them dry.

I’d assume they would fully annexe the territory they hold now but any further would be a quagmire of insurgency. all the while Europe would be rearming making any further attacks risky (especially the polish).
 

Their border with the remnants of a US less NATO is still massive leaving them very vulnerable particularly at the Suwalki gap and Kaliningrad.
 

They could force a full formal breakaway of Transnistria or just about regime change in Moldova but does that actually get them much more than they have now?
 

 

5 hours ago, Section_31 said:

You'll end up with three spheres of influence, US, China or Russia and everyone will be in one or the other. The UK not being in the EU will make things a bit extra shit. 

The UK will continue to be americas bestie and will follow what they do. putins best option is to continue to divide the EU and the US.

[Gnasher]

 

Why anyone would listen to people such as Emily Maitlis on Europe is beyond me. She'd be better off sticking to interviewing Prince Andrew.

 

 

[SasaS]

1 hour ago, JagSquared said:

I’m a novice but I just can’t see it. Their military is absolutely knackered it will take a decade or More to recover and that’s while they will likely have a large military occupation sapping them dry.

I’d assume they would fully annexe the territory they hold now but any further would be a quagmire of insurgency. all the while Europe would be rearming making any further attacks risky (especially the polish).
 

Their border with the remnants of a US less NATO is still massive leaving them very vulnerable particularly at the Suwalki gap and Kaliningrad.
 

They could force a full formal breakaway of Transnistria or just about regime change in Moldova but does that actually get them much more than they have now?
 

 

The UK will continue to be americas bestie and will follow what they do. putins best option is to continue to divide the EU and the US.

 

If Putin comes away with a victory in Ukraine, this will usher an era of even greater instability in the region, it will also boost all his ideological allies in Europe. Putin's Russia will definitely try to test NATO's resolve if Trump comes in and work on destabilizing both NATO and the EU. Russia doesn't need to invade the Baltics or Moldova to do a lot of damage. Trump on the other hand would immediately engage in political pressure and blackmailing of all countries relying on the US for security and defense.

[TheHowieLama]

Maybe not blackmail but definitely pay by the hour.

[JagSquared]

But what are the Russians gonna do? They are already resorting to using kit that’s decades past its use by date. Idealogical allies aren’t going to help him militarily but instead push their own agenda.
 

Moldova I agree is easy pickings as their military is about a few thousand lightly armed troops but they aren’t going to get much more than a friendly regime change.
 

The Baltics are a much more modernised and countries like France and Poland will see that as a red line (if you take what they say as fact) with or without the US and I think Russia would get hammered. 
 

Maybe I’m vastly wrong but Russia is screwed in the short term as they have no capability to expand their war. Medium term they need to rebuild and outpace their rivals in doing so and long term they are screwed from the financial and man power drain this has caused them plus Putin prob isn’t going to be around by then.l and who knows what the next guy will want.
 

There is no scenario that I can imagine where they come out with anything other than a phyrric victory where they force Ukraine to finally negotiate a peace and end up controlling decimated territory that will be a huge money pit that they have to rebuild.

[SasaS]

You may be thinking too much in terms of outright military confrontations such as this one in Ukraine, it was preceded by decades of slow Ukrainian emancipation from Russia, ever since 1991, a tango if you will, with two steps forward one step back. This gets repeated elsewhere. If we look at Putin's history, one war made him (Checnia2) every other strengthened his grip on power and increased his international ambitions, because he has mostly been successful. I don't recall any historic examples that an imperialist autocrat / dictator (which he now is) has been pacified through appeasement or partial success.

 

Now, what can Russia do, well, it cannot invade Poland and Germany, obviously, but it can use sizeable ethnic Russian communities in two of the three Baltic republic to try and destabilize them, it can try to put pressure on the third asking for concessions to better linked Kaliningrad. It has already unilaterally  changed some border markings. It is already trying to find allies in Moldova to get rid of the current government, without going in with their army. If Belarus tried to move away from Russia, which is a realistic scenario in some post-Lukashenko situation, they will probably invade. They are already stirring shit further away, in Bosnia, they now have two important allies in power in the EU, and a number of political assets elsewhere. It doesn't mean they will be successful, but creating a Europe-wide political shitstorm would be very expensive and very dangerous. Once the current structures are removed or made irrelevant, who knows. People tend to take too many things for granted.

 

If Ukraine is forced into a peace agreement that would basically be equal to capitulation, this will not be the end, only the beginning. It needs to be put into position that it can make continuation of this war too expensive for Russia, in blood, money and internal political stability, so it can negotiate a just settlement and use its own strong military as a security guarantee, no one will go there to fight the Russians in the future for them, of which which they are well aware.

 

And I am pretty sure no one will go anywhere to fight the Russians, one possible scenario is the one from that Norwegian TV series Occupied, where NATO is too divided and indecisive to act and Russians just creep in.

[JagSquared]

48 minutes ago, SasaS said:

You may be thinking too much in terms of outright military confrontations such as this one in Ukraine, it was preceded by decades of slow Ukrainian emancipation from Russia, ever since 1991, a tango if you will, with two steps forward one step back. This gets repeated elsewhere. If we look at Putin's history, one war made him (Checnia2) every other strengthened his grip on power and increased his international ambitions, because he has mostly been successful. I don't recall any historic examples that an imperialist autocrat / dictator (which he now is) has been pacified through appeasement or partial success.

 

Now, what can Russia do, well, it cannot invade Poland and Germany, obviously, but it can use sizeable ethnic Russian communities in two of the three Baltic republic to try and destabilize them, it can try to put pressure on the third asking for concessions to better linked Kaliningrad. It has already unilaterally  changed some border markings. It is already trying to find allies in Moldova to get rid of the current government, without going in with their army. If Belarus tried to move away from Russia, which is a realistic scenario in some post-Lukashenko situation, they will probably invade. They are already stirring shit further away, in Bosnia, they now have two important allies in power in the EU, and a number of political assets elsewhere. It doesn't mean they will be successful, but creating a Europe-wide political shitstorm would be very expensive and very dangerous. Once the current structures are removed or made irrelevant, who knows. People tend to take too many things for granted.

 

If Ukraine is forced into a peace agreement that would basically be equal to capitulation, this will not be the end, only the beginning. It needs to be put into position that it can make continuation of this war too expensive for Russia, in blood, money and internal political stability, so it can negotiate a just settlement and use its own strong military as a security guarantee, no one will go there to fight the Russians in the future for them, of which which they are well aware.

 

And I am pretty sure no one will go anywhere to fight the Russians, one possible scenario is the one from that Norwegian TV series Occupied, where NATO is too divided and indecisive to act and Russians just creep in.

 

It’s certainly interesting. what they have left as you say is causing political instability which doesn’t achieve much other than letting them find a marketable victory scenario in Ukraine for their populace.

 

they can’t try anything other than a coup in Moldova as they already have been down the political instability route via Transnistria, an invasion is off the table I reckon as their forces would be cut off and they don’t have enough “peacekeepers” there to make a gamble worth it.

 

with the Baltics they can certainly try with their Russian populations but any attempt has to be backed up with a credible military threat which isn’t possible when all they have left is actual sabres to rattle. They also will be mindful these are actual NATO members and I would believe after their actions in Ukraine, enough countries would step up without the US and UK directly being involved.

[M_B]

4 hours ago, JagSquared said:

The Baltics are a much more modernised and countries like France and Poland will see that as a red line (if you take what they say as fact) with or without the US and I think Russia would get hammered.

I don't think any NATO member would rush to save the Baltics, particularly without US support. Poland would be the red line, because it's a buffer to Germany, but the Baltics? Not a chance.

[JagSquared]

Incidentally I reckon it would be the Poles themselves who would go for it assuming they could get support from another tough talking nation like France. 
 

however I have got to say I doubt this escalates further than Ukraine.

[TheHowieLama]

1 hour ago, JagSquared said:

this escalates further than Ukraine.

 

Whats left of it:

 

Germany plans to halve its military aid to Ukraine next year, despite concerns that US support for Kyiv could potentially diminish if Republican candidate Donald Trump returns to the White House.

German aid to Ukraine will be cut to €4 billion ($4.35 billion) in 2025 from around €8 billion in 2024, according to a draft of the 2025 budget seen by Reuters.

[SasaS]

3 hours ago, JagSquared said:

 

It’s certainly interesting. what they have left as you say is causing political instability which doesn’t achieve much other than letting them find a marketable victory scenario in Ukraine for their populace.

 

they can’t try anything other than a coup in Moldova as they already have been down the political instability route via Transnistria, an invasion is off the table I reckon as their forces would be cut off and they don’t have enough “peacekeepers” there to make a gamble worth it.

 

with the Baltics they can certainly try with their Russian populations but any attempt has to be backed up with a credible military threat which isn’t possible when all they have left is actual sabres to rattle. They also will be mindful these are actual NATO members and I would believe after their actions in Ukraine, enough countries would step up without the US and UK directly being involved.

 

Russia will continue with its currently military spending for several years, it will probably spend it on restructuring and reconstructing its military. If Ukraine has fallen in that period, they will not just march that military up the hill and down the hill again. Once global security structure such as it existed is no more, and it will be as good as gone if Russia is allowed to simply invade and annex territory of its neighbour , or completely destroy it as an independent entity  - who knows what they may decide to do next. And what any other country may then decide it is now allowed.

 

Russia's strategic goal is not destabilizing Moldova, it's destabilizing  and then if possible, breaking up NATO and the EU.

[SasaS]

Mediazona Russian casualties update, + 1518 for the past two weeks to 59,725. Again on the high side, in line with Russian offensive, but less than some other counts saying there was a bigger recent uptick. Mediazona still think the actual number of KIA is double their confirmed names count.

 

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

 

Ukrainian obituaries count at 50,813 as of 15 July.

 

https://ualosses.org/soldiers/

 

Another report saying Ukrainian marines and TD have lost the total of 262 KIA + 878 MIA in Krynky operation across the river, which they relatively recently had to abandon.

 

(In Ukrainian, via Rob Lee's Twitter account).

 

https://www.slidstvo.info/warnews/ya-bachyv-peklo-i-nazva-yomu-krynky-biytsi-iaki-utrymuvaly-selo-na-livomu-berezi-i-znykly-tam-bezvisty/

 

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

A Russian court has sentenced American journalist Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison for espionage, in the most high-profile case against a Western journalist since the Cold War. 

Prosecutors had asked for 18 years in a high-security penal colony, just two years below the maximum penalty for espionage. 

“The 16-year prison sentence against [Gershkovich] is the antithesis of justice,” European Parliament chief Roberta Metsola said, “A politically motivated and sham trial. Journalism is not a crime. Evan must be released immediately.”

Gershkovich was arrested in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg in March last year on a reporting assignment for his employer, the Wall Street Journal.

[Gnasher]

Awful. Locking up journalists for any amount of time is bad but 16 years on a trumped up spying charge is beyond ridiculous. 

 

[TheHowieLama]

A number of European countries halted mandatory conscription after the end of the Cold War, but several nations – particularly in Scandanavia and the Baltics – have reintroduced it in recent years, largely because of the Russian threat. Failure to enlist can result in fines or even jail time in some countries.

Latvia is the latest to implement conscription. Compulsory military service  was reintroduced on January 1 this year, after being abolished in 2006. Male citizens will be put up for the draft within 12 months of reaching the age of 18, or graduation for those still in the education system.

 

“There wasn’t really an option where we can stand by and think things will go on as they were before because of the unprovoked aggression in Ukraine.”

 

 

In April, Norway presented an ambitious long-term plan that will nearly double the country’s defense budget and add more than 20,000 conscripted soldiers, employees, and reservists to the armed forces.

“We need a defense that is fit for purpose in the emerging security environment,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said.

Conscription in Norway is mandatory and in 2015 it became the first member of the NATO defensive alliance to conscript both men and women on equal terms.

[SasaS]

Kuleba is in China today, that may be important.

 

Hope he is not just buying some cheap drone spare parts.

 

[TheHowieLama]

Putin realising The Wee Don may not be riding into save the day.

 

Authorities in the city of Moscow are offering a record signing-on bonus for new recruits to fight in Ukraine, in the latest sign of a scramble to boost Russian troop numbers.

The financial sweetener comes as President Vladimir Putin struggles to recruit soldiers for his army as Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine grinds on in its third year.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin introduced the one-time signing bonus of 1.9 million rubles (about $22,000) for city residents who join the military, according to a statement on Tuesday.

Anyone taking up the offer would earn as much as 5.2 million rubles ($59,600) in their first year of service, the statement added.

Those willing to join the fight in Ukraine can also receive one-time cash payments of about $5,690-$11,390 for injuries, “depending on the severity,” and the family of a soldier killed in action could be paid $34,150.

While Russia’s casualty numbers remain shrouded in secrecy, estimates say the death toll among troops is high. More than 70,000 soldiers were likely killed or wounded in May and June alone, the UK defense ministry said.

It is estimated that Russia has lost 87% of the active duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks.

The conscription campaign led to fierce demonstrations – particularly in Russia’s ethnic minority regions where mobilization efforts were concentrated – and has sparked an exodus of military-age men fleeing the country to avoid the war.

[Section_31]

Le shits!!!

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jul/24/russian-chef-arrested-in-paris-over-alleged-large-scale-olympic-games-plot-paris-2024

 

 

A Russian chef who has lived in France for 14 years has been arrested on suspicion of plotting with a foreign power to stage “large scale” acts of “destabilisation” during the Olympic Games in Paris.

[Bjornebye]

11 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Le shits!!!

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jul/24/russian-chef-arrested-in-paris-over-alleged-large-scale-olympic-games-plot-paris-2024

 

 

A Russian chef who has lived in France for 14 years has been arrested on suspicion of plotting with a foreign power to stage “large scale” acts of “destabilisation” during the Olympic Games in Paris.

I hope he hasn’t been preparing Tuna Tartar!!! 

[Red Phoenix]

Gershkovich is free :

 

 

[SasaS]

9 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

Gershkovich is free :

 

 

 

Someone should wake WSJ up and tell them the news.