Summer 2013 Transfer Thread

[Whelan]

I think it is fair for the club to expect £30m to buy a world class star, not potential. You can make an argument for the players value plus the value of making statement - that would make it easier to attract other players in future.

 

But - if the manager states we need first team players and we don't - then someone has to answer for the criticism. The scouting teams job is to bring in players, not to work hard. I'd work hard - but all i'd be saying is Tello, Tello, Tello, Tello!

[spider-neil]

If you are paying 30m then you can and should expect a world class player who is the finished article rather than potential. You can spin it anyway you like but potential is just that, potential.

 

Go down the English league and look how many times 30m was paid to a player who was potential. I think the only time it happened was with us and look how that turned out.

[Major Tom]

Personally, I don't believe you can overpay for players who significantly strengthen your team. The problem with Kenny/Commolli's signings wasn't the fees paid, it was that they were fucking shit. Carroll at £25m would have still been a terrible signing, just as Coutinho for that amount would have been a great one. At the end of the day, the worth of Willian or any other signing will be determined entirely by his performances on the pitch. In a year's time either we will have been proven wrong not to have not paid the £30m, or wrong to have wanted him for slightly less than that amount, it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which he looks good value at £28m and poor value at £30m.

 

Bang on, that.

[Whelan]

If you are paying 30m then you can and should expect a world class player who is the finished article rather than potential. You can spin it anyway you like but potential is just that, potential.

 

Go down the English league and look how many times 30m was paid to a player who was potential. I think the only time it happened was with us and look how that turned out.

 

I agree - I can't blame the club if they don't feel Lamela, or Willian are worth £30m - you should be expecting the finished article for that.

 

But - I think the club will be to blame if someone isn't brought in. If you can't bring in a wide player then bring in Eriksen and keep Coutinho out wide.

[billypilgrimnz]

Is it really?.

 

Yes.

[spider-neil]

30m should be buying you the finished article.

 

50m should be buying you one of the top 10 footballers in world football.

 

That's what I think anyway.

[Innova]

If you are paying 30m then you can and should expect a world class player who is the finished article rather than potential. You can spin it anyway you like but potential is just that' date=' potential.

 

Go down the English league and look how many times 30m was paid to a player who was potential. I think the only time it happened was with us and look how that turned out.[/quote']

 

Pretty much sums up how we messed up last summer. Good post.

 

I really don't think spending 30m on a forward is a wise decision now, especially since our back line is leaky and could use a new experienced defender & a DM rather than splashing it on a forward.

 

I really do think Ryan shawcross would be a good addition to our back lines. Powerful in the air and tackles hard.

[Horus]

I agree - I can't blame the club if they don't feel Lamela, or Willian are worth £30m - you should be expecting the finished article for that.

 

But - I think the club will be to blame if someone isn't brought in. If you can't bring in a wide player then bring in Eriksen and keep Coutinho out wide.

 

When every other club you're competing with suddenly has a fuckload more money because of our TV deal, then price a club is willing to pay, doesn't reflect the true value anymore. The previous example of buying the finished article for £30m is now redundant, because loads of cunts have £30m to spend on a single player. The old £30m has now become a minimum of £50m.

[spider-neil]

Pretty much sums up how we messed up last summer. Good post.

 

I really don't think spending 30m on a forward is a wise decision now, especially since our back line is leaky and could use a new experienced defender & a DM rather than splashing it on a forward.

 

I really do think Ryan shawcross would be a good addition to our back lines. Powerful in the air and tackles hard.

 

I think our plan is to move for Papa in Jan. Obviously if 'somehow' we get Sakho than forget about Papa.

[Innova]

 

I think our plan is to move for Papa in Jan. Obviously if 'somehow' we get Sakho than forget about Papa.

 

How much was papa supposed to cost that time? 18m?

[Major Tom]

When every other club you're competing with suddenly has a fuckload more money because of our TV deal, then price a club is willing to pay, doesn't reflect the true value anymore. The previous example of buying the finished article for £30m is now redundant, because loads of cunts have £30m to spend on a single player. The old £30m has now become a minimum of £50m.

 

Transfer fees are arbitrary - and with lots of variables - anyway. I know people know this, but to say 'x' amount should get you 'y' is a little too simplistic!

[spider-neil]

How much was papa supposed to cost that time? 18m?

 

Yep, maybe even more. We'd essentially be paying a premium to see if Papa properly heals from his injury. We of course could gamble and get him in now for a lot cheaper but it would be a big gamble.

[Innova]

 

Yep' date=' maybe even more. We'd essentially be paying a premium to see if Papa properly heals from his injury. We of course could gamble and get him in now for a lot cheaper but it would be a big gamble.[/quote']

 

I'll rather gamble on papa than on willian seeing how we need a strong center back now rather than a forward.

[Major Tom]

I'll rather gamble on papa than on willian seeing how we need a strong center back now rather than a forward.

 

I'm comfortable with Toure and Agger. And a rejuvenated Skrtel.

[spider-neil]

I'm comfortable with Toure and Agger. And a rejuvenated Skrtel.

 

Agger is injury prone and the manager doesn't seem to trust Skrtel.

[Innova]

 

I'm comfortable with Toure and Agger. And a rejuvenated Skrtel.

 

I'm really hoping toure can keep up his good start for many more matches but at his age I can't help but have doubts, and there's got to be a reason why city let him go on a free even when they themselves are currently weak in defense.

 

If skrtel stays and plays like how he used to play at his best then that'll be great, and we still have Kelly and wisdom on the bench to rotate.

 

Can papa play as a dm?

[spider-neil]

I think if we and when we get a CB Touré will be used as he was originally intended, as cover. Just now though Touré has been excellent but I don't think his fine start to the season should stop us from carrying out our original plan of securing a quality centre back.

[Red Phoenix]

How much longer can football sustain itself with these transfer fees? Surely it's a bubble like you'd see anywhere else? Or maybe it doesn't apply here because it's just the richest of the rich that are competing for the best players, and higher fees are the equivalent of a dick waving contest between that minority?

 

If this carries on, how long before we start turning away and supporting newer clubs with similar names that are coming up from the lower leagues? That idea will probably start becoming a lot more popular soon because it's becoming hard to identify with football as it is now.

[Red Phoenix]

This might be more like it in the future : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.F.C._Liverpool

[Gym Beglin]

The thing is, we clearly believe Willian is a very good player who would significantly strengthen our team, or we wouldn't have been willing to pay £27/28m for him in the first place. In the end we've lost out on someone who we thought would add real quality to the first team because we were offering £2/3m below his market value and not prepared to go any higher.

 

Personally, I don't believe you can overpay for players who significantly strengthen your team. The problem with Kenny/Commolli's signings wasn't the fees paid, it was that they were fucking shit. Carroll at £25m would have still been a terrible signing, just as Coutinho for that amount would have been a great one. At the end of the day, the worth of Willian or any other signing will be determined entirely by his performances on the pitch. In a year's time either we will have been proven wrong not to have not paid the £30m, or wrong to have wanted him for slightly less than that amount, it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which he looks good value at £28m and poor value at £30m.

.

 

 

Good points, but bear in mind that I suspect not only the fee has increased but the terms of the player increased in line with the offer from Spurs.

I think paying £28m and getting him on good terms might have been just palatable to us. Of course we'd be overpaying by £8m in all likelihood, but maybe the wages he was asking for were quite reasonable and we saw that it all balanced out.

 

But once the bidding went over £30m (and I've heard it's closer to £33m), and his wages go up by £10-20k a week, then you're massively overpaying for a player and I think that Spurs tipped the balance too far and we saw that the deal was fast becoming a monstrous one for a player who, despite our scouts liking him, is still a bit of a gamble at the highest level. We can write off, say, £5m-£7m through slightly overpaying for fee and wages, just. But I don't think we can turn a blind eye to something more like a £15m risk over 4 years, which is closer to what it had become.

 

At his very, very best, Willian isn't going to be as good as Coutinho, for example. The lad is 25, he's not suddenly going to bloom into a World Class player, he is what he is, a very good player who is easy on the eye and has good creativity.

 

We weren;t offering £2/3 m below his market value, we were offering £8m above his market value, and we refused to go above that whereas Spurs were hell bent on securing a player and kept on climbing. The risk is on Spurs now because there's no way that Willian, if unsuccessful, can be shifted for anything close to the same amount, and there's no way that he's worth £30m (in the traditional sense of being a World Class player) in the first place.

 

Ideally, as a club, we want to pay the market value for a player. Of course we do, we want value. But from time to time, we're going to be tempted to pay slightly over the market value in order to get someone in who we feel is vital or of such potential that it would be valuable to us in the medium term. We obviously felt that Willian was worth a gamble at just over market value, but not once the bidding got silly. I think that's fair enough from the club. There'll always be some club, somewhere, with cash to spend following a big sale. If we always come up against them and pay the inflated price then you'll go broke very quickly. YOu have to have some sort of guiding philosophy and stick to it.

 

As you say, just because Spurs are willing to pay £33m for him does not make him a £33m player. We learnt this through Carroll, and now it's time for Spurs to learn the same lesson.

[fowler9]

well it seems we're not good enough for the already proven and won't pay inflated fees for potential

 

The solution? Chuck 15million Chelsea's way when they get Rooney, tell the evil imposter his work is done and unrustle the real Fernando Torres from John Henry's cellar

[Ne Moe Imya]

Good points, but bear in mind that I suspect not only the fee has increased but the terms of the player increased in line with the offer from Spurs.

I think paying £28m and getting him on good terms might have been just palatable to us. Of course we'd be overpaying by £8m in all likelihood, but maybe the wages he was asking for were quite reasonable and we saw that it all balanced out.

 

But once the bidding went over £30m (and I've heard it's closer to £33m), and his wages go up by £10-20k a week, then you're massively overpaying for a player and I think that Spurs tipped the balance too far and we saw that the deal was fast becoming a monstrous one for a player who, despite our scouts liking him, is still a bit of a gamble at the highest level. We can write off, say, £5m-£7m through slightly overpaying for fee and wages, just. But I don't think we can turn a blind eye to something more like a £15m risk over 4 years, which is closer to what it had become.

 

...

 

Great post.

 

I'm a huge fan of Lamela, and if Spurs manage to get him I think they would be out of reach for us for at least a season or two (in fact, if they end up with a forward line of Soldado, Lamela, and Willian in front of that midfield I would back them to easily end up above United and possibly pushing City and Chelsea for the title). However, the Willian deal was getting out of hand price-wise and I'm glad we walked away.

 

I think we had our targets, he plopped into our laps as an unexpected option and we took a punt. Then the price got inflated, all of a sudden it didn't look like nearly as much of a windfall as it had at first and we simply went back to our list.

 

Now, granted, we're now on option C from the list, but still, I'm more than happy to see us avoid paying 33 million for Willian. Lamela at that price - I'd be happy to see us overpay a bit, as I really like him. A player who has a long history of a goal every 7 or 8 games? Nah.

[fowler9]

Great post.

 

I'm a huge fan of Lamela, and if Spurs manage to get him I think they would be out of reach for us for at least a season or two (in fact, if they end up with a forward line of Soldado, Lamela, and Willian in front of that midfield I would back them to easily end up above United and possibly pushing City and Chelsea for the title). However, the Willian deal was getting out of hand price-wise and I'm glad we walked away.

 

I think we had our targets, he plopped into our laps as an unexpected option and we took a punt. Then the price got inflated, all of a sudden it didn't look like nearly as much of a windfall as it had at first and we simply went back to our list.

 

Now, granted, we're now on option C from the list, but still, I'm more than happy to see us avoid paying 33 million for Willian. Lamela at that price - I'd be happy to see us overpay a bit, as I really like him. A player who has a long history of a goal every 7 or 8 games? Nah.

 

 

I agree with the general jist of this post however what I would say is everyone seems to automatically assuming all these Spurs signings are going to work out, I'd expect Lamela to if they got him (don't think they will) and I think Soldado will too providing he gets the service, the rest of them are far from guaranteed to be a success imo, Paulinho probably will be but it could be argued with Dembele and Sandro was he really necessary and wouldn't they have been best off going for a number 10? Willian and Chadil the jury's out on both obviously talented, one only really done it in the dutch and belgian league which aren't exactly great, the other doesn't really have the goal record of a 30million winger (although I assume ours and spurs staff have seen the potential in him to do so), can't see that Capoue fella making too much impact with the players ahead of him.

 

Questions remain over how good AVB actually is as well, he was certainly Baled out (get it?!) last season and with him going this time out he could be relying all the signings to come good just to match what he did last season, people seem to think they are getting Coentrao as part of the Bale deal (I've seen nothing concrete just a couple of tweets) but as things stand they are extremely weak in the full back department imo

[cuppatea]

Good points, but bear in mind that I suspect not only the fee has increased but the terms of the player increased in line with the offer from Spurs.

I think paying £28m and getting him on good terms might have been just palatable to us. Of course we'd be overpaying by £8m in all likelihood, but maybe the wages he was asking for were quite reasonable and we saw that it all balanced out.

 

But once the bidding went over £30m (and I've heard it's closer to £33m), and his wages go up by £10-20k a week, then you're massively overpaying for a player and I think that Spurs tipped the balance too far and we saw that the deal was fast becoming a monstrous one for a player who, despite our scouts liking him, is still a bit of a gamble at the highest level. We can write off, say, £5m-£7m through slightly overpaying for fee and wages, just. But I don't think we can turn a blind eye to something more like a £15m risk over 4 years, which is closer to what it had become.

 

At his very, very best, Willian isn't going to be as good as Coutinho, for example. The lad is 25, he's not suddenly going to bloom into a World Class player, he is what he is, a very good player who is easy on the eye and has good creativity.

 

We weren;t offering £2/3 m below his market value, we were offering £8m above his market value, and we refused to go above that whereas Spurs were hell bent on securing a player and kept on climbing. The risk is on Spurs now because there's no way that Willian, if unsuccessful, can be shifted for anything close to the same amount, and there's no way that he's worth £30m (in the traditional sense of being a World Class player) in the first place.

 

Ideally, as a club, we want to pay the market value for a player. Of course we do, we want value. But from time to time, we're going to be tempted to pay slightly over the market value in order to get someone in who we feel is vital or of such potential that it would be valuable to us in the medium term. We obviously felt that Willian was worth a gamble at just over market value, but not once the bidding got silly. I think that's fair enough from the club. There'll always be some club, somewhere, with cash to spend following a big sale. If we always come up against them and pay the inflated price then you'll go broke very quickly. YOu have to have some sort of guiding philosophy and stick to it.

 

As you say, just because Spurs are willing to pay £33m for him does not make him a £33m player. We learnt this through Carroll, and now it's time for Spurs to learn the same lesson.

 

Market value is what a club is prepared to pay, not what we think they're worth. Willian's market value is £30m, 2 clubs have paid that for him in the last 6 months and there were reportedly others willing to do the same. To say his value is £20m is meaningless, especially when we were willing to go way above that ourselves. Clearly if we thought there were players of equivalent quality available at £20m we wouldn't have been offering £28m for him at all.

 

Also, who are all of these established world class players, in their mid-20's, available for £30m? In today's market that sort of money gets you a very good but not great player like Willian, Fernandinho, Illamarendi (a whopping 7 international caps between them, at a combined cost of over £90m) or an extremely talented youngster like Hazard or Marquinhos, it doesn't get you a ready made, completely proven, undisputed world class player at the peak of his career and if it did we'd be at the back of a long queue to sign them.

 

I'll say again, the problem with Andy Carroll wasn't the fee, it's that he was shit. If you could have advised the board with the benefit of hindsight you wouldn't have told them to try and get Carroll for less, you'd have begged them not to sign him at all. By the same token, you'd be telling them to get Coutinho whatever the cost, when the likelihood is that if another club had come in and offered £2m more than us we'd have pulled out of the running and missed out on a fantastic player.

 

It's just disappointing that we obviously identified Willian as that quality first team addition in attack that Rodgers has been asking for all summer but then lost out because of financial reasons to a team we're hoping to rival for 4th. The scale of that disappointment will only become clear in 2 weeks time but if the window closes without us making a quality signing in attack (clearly the manager's priority), it won't be because we couldn't find players we felt would strengthen us, it'll be because we weren't prepared to pay the going rate for them when we did.

[Anubis]

City made a bid of £34m earlier in the window, before Anzi's owner got pissed off and decided to sell.