Russia v Ukraine

[Creator Supreme]

16 minutes ago, cochyn said:

Would he though, and against who? Using nukes would surely bring global condemnation and likely spur China into at least a response that would have to align them with the West against Russia. It'd be suicide for Russia.  

Does he give a shit though? If he's taken leave of his senses or if he is terminally ill, maybe he just doesn't care anymore!

[stringvest]

I'm waiting for one of his own men to shoot the fucker dead.  

[cochyn]

1 minute ago, dockers_strike said:

Well, depending on your view, he's threatened nuclear, biological or chemical response when he said intervene and you'll see a response like you've never had in your history. Plus, his newscast saying he's ordered nuclear assets to high alert.

 

Problem is, when you play brinkmanship it is a dangerous game. There's no going back and saying 'oh sorry Vlad' if he does. Who would he use them against? Id summise NATO targets but he could go the full gammut and launch ICBMs all over the shop.

 

Who is prepared to take that risk?

Can't see it myself mate. That would be an escalation waaaay beyond his ability to control. It's control he's after - and return to a bygone state of affairs that the rest of the world has long moved on from. Reinventing Russia in a soviet image relies on maintaining a strong Russia at its core. Going nuclear would green light the rest of the world closing in on them and tearing Russia apart from all directions. There'd be plenty of takers, not least the numerous regions far from Moscow who'd gladly see the back of Putin and set up their own republics.    

[cochyn]

9 minutes ago, Creator Supreme said:

Does he give a shit though? If he's taken leave of his senses or if he is terminally ill, maybe he just doesn't care anymore!

Who'd follow his orders? How would he know they had? He's got where he is by being canny enough to placate the military yet never place it in a situation it can't handle- see going after Chechnya, Georgia - it's all  quelling 'internal strife'. Crimea is essentially Russian so he know he could go in there basically unopposed. It's emboldened him to expand on the plan, but with a military that's had eight years to prepare for going at Ukraine. 

 

He may be despotic, vainglorious and all that. But his military know their limits. And if reports form Ukraine are to be believed, maybe he now knows it too.

[dockers_strike]

3 minutes ago, cochyn said:

Can't see it myself mate. That would be an escalation waaaay beyond his ability to control. It's control he's after - and return to a bygone state of affairs that the rest of the world has long moved on from. Reinventing Russia in a soviet image relies on maintaining a strong Russia at its core. Going nuclear would green light the rest of the world closing in on them and tearing Russia apart from all directions. There'd be plenty of takers, not least the numerous regions far from Moscow who'd gladly see the back of Putin and set up their own republics.    

I hope not to see it, mate. Im just an old fart sat on a comfy chair 1000's of miles from this tragedy but Im very, very nervy how this is going to end up. There'll be no 2nd bite of the cherry if a wrong assumption or decision is made.

 

I keep seeing people posting NATO would absolutely batter the Russian forces yet reports Ive read of war games suggests NATO would have to go nuclear first to push back against Russian forces. The German Defence Minister said their forced were pretty much fucked after decades of underfunding.

[magicrat]

9 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

I hope not to see it, mate. Im just an old fart sat on a comfy chair 1000's of miles from this tragedy but Im very, very nervy how this is going to end up. There'll be no 2nd bite of the cherry if a wrong assumption or decision is made.

 

I keep seeing people posting NATO would absolutely batter the Russian forces yet reports Ive read of war games suggests NATO would have to go nuclear first to push back against Russian forces. The German Defence Minister said their forced were pretty much fucked after decades of underfunding.

Agree.  I would like to see the rhetoric dialled back and some serious efforts made to get a cease fire.  Johnson and Truss make me sick with their ridiculous posturing , The Tory cunts trying desperately to be relevant on the world stage to divert attention from their domestic shite fest. Oldest trick in the political book. 

[cochyn]

19 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

I hope not to see it, mate. Im just an old fart sat on a comfy chair 1000's of miles from this tragedy but Im very, very nervy how this is going to end up. There'll be no 2nd bite of the cherry if a wrong assumption or decision is made.

 

I keep seeing people posting NATO would absolutely batter the Russian forces yet reports Ive read of war games suggests NATO would have to go nuclear first to push back against Russian forces. The German Defence Minister said their forced were pretty much fucked after decades of underfunding.

Same here mate. Easy from over here isn't it? 

 

My reading of the situation is that Putin has banged the drum for a neutralization of the Ukraine for years. His generals have come up with a plan which basically sees them a) Cut off the head of the snake by taking Kiev b) Advance from the east to bolster their presence in the separatist regions c) Take control of the Black Sea ports via Crimea d) strangle the Ukraine into being a vassal state. All in time for tea and blinis. He sees the west in a perceived moment of weakness and division and goes for it.

 

It's terrible to witness, but it's a weak plan to begin with and it smells like he's sold it to the Russian military as being well within their capabilities akin to the interventions in Georgia and Chechnya. The real danger is whether he doubles down on the plan and truly escalates. Or, his military turn around and tell him to seek a political resolution to avoid a wider escalation and to keep his seat. Which he will have to do at some point (hence - negotiations). 

 

My guess would be he'd settle at Ukraine ceding Crimea to Russia and the Donbass being given semi autonomy under UN monitoring. This way ethnic Russians are 'protected', he gets some degree of a result out of it. The Ukraine however would go for broke for both EU and NATO membership... Putin would seek anon-aggression pact with NATO (which is superfluous as NATO is a defensive alliance, not an offensive one). And on we go.

[J-V]

50 minutes ago, Strontium said:

I've seen the damage those Turkish-made Bayraktar drones have been doing to Russian convoys. They are way cheaper and simpler than the US Reaper drones, but seem to deliver more bang for your buck.

They seem brilliant.  If anything that EU weapons money should be buying as many of them that are available especially considering the Ukrainians have been in Turkey training on the system 

 

 

[Colonel Bumcunt]

7 hours ago, YorkshireRed said:

Diane Abbot’s just mistakenly referred to Ukraine as Croatia on The Politics Show.

 

I wonder if this will just be seen as ‘one of those things’ that we all just move on from. 

Word for word, politicians make silly gaffes every time they are interviewed.  But it's obviously deeply thrilling for some to highlight the failings of a fat, lispy woman of colour, and I can't for the life of me figure out why.  

[Bjornebye]

 

 

 

 

 

[Colonel Bumcunt]

Bumcunt on nukes:

 

"Part of me wants nukes, though this could be the end of nukes.  Putin says he can defend Russia with them, but the reality is that all he can do is guarantee Russia's complete annaihalation by launching against NATO.  This being the case, what's the point in ever threatening to use them, it's just the suicide note of a complete idiot, one who doesn't actually value the existence of his own country. To that end, they do only truly exist as a deterrent against using them".

[Section_31]

He's really screwed the pooch on this Putin hasn't he, I haven't seen anyone misjudge something this badly since I cracked that disability joke at the BBC recruitment fair.

[Gnasher]

36 minutes ago, Colonel Bumcunt said:

Word for word, politicians make silly gaffes every time they are interviewed.  But it's obviously deeply thrilling for some to highlight the failings of a fat, lispy woman of colour, and I can't for the life of me figure out why.  

Agree.

[dockers_strike]

25 minutes ago, Colonel Bumcunt said:

Bumcunt on nukes:

 

"Part of me wants nukes, though this could be the end of nukes.  Putin says he can defend Russia with them, but the reality is that all he can do is guarantee Russia's complete annaihalation by launching against NATO.  This being the case, what's the point in ever threatening to use them, it's just the suicide note of a complete idiot, one who doesn't actually value the existence of his own country. To that end, they do only truly exist as a deterrent against using them".

Mutual Assured Destruction was always said to be the ultimate deterrent. That kind of becomes a little moot if one of the parties has lost all common sense or thinks their 'side' would survive, in whatever state, while the other was annihilated.

 

Me? No, I never want to see nukes used. The 2 to end WW2 were enough and they were piss weak compared to today's nukes and even some non nuclear weapons.

[3 Stacks]

Can anyone honestly say he wouldn't use nukes? People are trying to pretend the guy is rational.

 

This is someone who doesn't think certain states should exist, who is hungry for territory, and who has potentially lost his mind/was very callous to begin with.

[magicrat]

26 minutes ago, Colonel Bumcunt said:

Bumcunt on nukes:

 

"Part of me wants nukes, though this could be the end of nukes.  Putin says he can defend Russia with them, but the reality is that all he can do is guarantee Russia's complete annaihalation by launching against NATO.  This being the case, what's the point in ever threatening to use them, it's just the suicide note of a complete idiot, one who doesn't actually value the existence of his own country. To that end, they do only truly exist as a deterrent against using them".

If he used nuclear warheads against NATO countries then the mutually assured destruction rationale kicks in. However what if he used battlefield or tactical nukes against Ukrainian targets , Of course the adverse reaction would be immense but i see no way NATO would retaliate in kind.   

[magicrat]

39 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

 

 

 

 

 

Nice bunch aren't they .  The sad thing is it's totally predictable and what's more this repugnant piece of excrement is getting a pay rise next month

[SasaS]

Well, he is winning so far. He wouldn't use nukes if he is winning.

[Bjornebye]

Isn’t he supposed to be ill? 

[Section_31]

Patel is what would happen if you put everyone who's ever worked in a call centre with the job title 'team coach' or ''supervisor' in a blender with a pair of old slippers and a self published book called 'will your way to success' written by someone who has no money.

[Anubis]

1 hour ago, stringvest said:

I'm waiting for one of his own men to shoot the fucker dead.  

The most elegant solution for everyone. Including the Russians.

[Clem H Fandango]

Early contender for the word of 2022, thermobaric.

[Section_31]

1 minute ago, Anubis said:

The most elegant solution for everyone. Including the Russians.

 

Imagine if they shot him and he fell over, cracked in half and a slightly smaller Putin climbed out.

[Creator Supreme]

2 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Patel is what would happen if you put everyone who's ever worked in a call centre with the job title 'team coach' or ''supervisor' in a blender with a pair of old slippers and a self published book called 'will your way to success' written by someone who has no money.

I've worked for people like her in the past. My manager in the job I left last year was like her!

 

If thoughts could kill my old manager would have been nuked to bollocks and beyond by now the evil Scottish twat that she is!

 

Apologies to all Scots on the forum, you're all sound, my old manager is a cunt, she just happens to be from your country!

[Creator Supreme]

2 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

 

Imagine if they shot him and he fell over, cracked in half and a slightly smaller Putin climbed out.

Fucking hell, that's boss, cheers for that!