Aintree Thursday Trends

[bobhorse]

For anyone who wants to have a go at trying to pick the winners here are some pointers

 

Aintree Thursday

 

14:00

Race has been run 4 times and all 4 winners where in the 1st 3 in the betting

All had ran at Cheltenham LTO

All had Placed at the National meeting before

All finished in the first 3 last time out

3 of the last 4 winners finished 1 2 or 3 in the World Hurdle @ Cheltenham

This that should narrow down the field

 

 

14:35

9 out of 10 ran at Cheltenham LTO would have been 10 but for foot and mouth

18 of the last 24 ran in the Gold Cup LTO (7 of last 9 )

6 out of 11 where 1 2 or 3 in the King George that year

Only 3 -10 favs have won and none priced over 14/1 have won in the last 10 years

 

 

15:10

9 out of 10 had won at least 1 of there last 3 starts

7 of the last 8 ran in the Triumph Hurdle including the last 6

15out of 18 had won at least 2 hurdle races that year

So that will narrow the field down will have to see who decides to take on Celestial Halo again

 

15:45

The last 6 winners of this where not brought through Pointing Hunting ranks

14 of the last 15 where placed at worse last time out

14 of the last 15 where from the first 4 in the betting 9of 10 priced under 8/1

Horses aged 8 or under are 0 from 24

Horses aged 13 or older are 0 form 28

Horses that ran at Cheltenham have a poor record in this

Irish trained horses have won 1 of the last 25 running’s

 

 

16:20

10 out of 10 where aged 7-9y old 18 or 19 where 9 or younger

5 of the last 6 carried under 11st

All 10 had run no more than 5 times that season

Horse priced 16/1 + are 0 from 44

7 of last 10 where priced under 7/1

9 of last 10 were in the fist 5 in the betting not a race for outsiders

5 of the last 9 ran in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham

Paul Nicholls has had 13 runners without a winner in this race

 

16:55

4y olds are 0 from 26

No winner older than 6 for 20 years

8 of the last 11 finished in the top 6 at Cheltenham Festival

7 out of 10 had won at least 2 races that season already

9 of the last 10 had ran at least 4 times that season

Irish bred horses have won 7 of the last 10

8 of last 10 where in the first 2 in the betting

P Nicholls is 2 from 2 in this race

All 4 of N Richards have won or been placed

 

17:30

15 of the 19 had won that season

18 of the last 19 carried 10st 5lbs or more

Irish trained Horses have won 4 out of 10

JP McManus has won 4 of the last 10

7 of the last 8 started at double figure prices

7 of the last 10 finished in the first 4 LTO

All 43 runners priced 28/1 or bigger have lost

All 33 runners from outside the handicap have lost

[Sol18]

That's a lot of betting I gotta get on that betting slip. ;-) Is there a simplified version? Too much for me to work out so I leave to the professional like yourself!

[Ian Sea]

Nice one Bob. Do a post on Friday's races will you, I'm going and could do with picking a few winners!

[Bob]

is anyone thinking of going on thursday but hasnt got a ticket yet? I have a spare ticket in the county stand (is that right?) but i cant make it, i can give you the contact name of my mate who has the ticket if interested. Face value.

 

also, am going friday, so those kinds of trends for friday would be awesome Bob.

[Randy Marsh]

cheers mr horse, im off to aintree tomorrow so ill have a look out for a few of them

[mattyq]

Is there any chance you could just give a recomendation fore each race, Bob?

I like having a little flutter but your trends might as well have been in Martian for my betting novice head

[Spy Bee]

My mate's dad's horse runs in the first of the day tomorrow. Aces Four I think it's called. He seems pretty confident, so it will probably finish last.

[bobhorse]

14:00 Inglis Drever one that might go well at a big price E/W Chief Dan George

 

14:35 Kauto Star

 

15:10 Celestial Halo Binocular its a two horse race in my book

 

15:45 Katarino Thisthatandtother

 

16:20 Leslingtaylor Bambi De'Lorme

 

16:55 Group Captain Lightning Strike

 

17:30 Kingscape Junior Peacock i would be looking in this group 5 winners of this race had ran in the coral cup at Cheltenham so that is the race Junior & Peacock ran in and JP Mc has won this 4 times so you would have to look at Kingscape aswell

 

 

well that is my thoughts on the days racesi will be doing the same for Friday tonight

 

Good Luck to those who are going and anyone having a punt

[discuit]

the inlaws house overlooks the racecourse.

 

bonus.

[bobhorse]

Its probably the worse course in the country to view racing from but its brilliant never the less look for horses that have ran well at the meeting before if you back them over the three days you will end up with around 6 or more winners and for the lazy bastards amongst you here is the list

 

Aces Four

Albertas Run

Al Eile

Bambi De'LOrme

Black Jack Ketchum

Bob Hall

Chief Dan George

Dunbrody Millar

Exotic Dancer

Faasel

Fair Along

Gaspara

Kings Quay

Lankawi

McKelvey

Monet's Garden

Osana

Pak Jack

Scots Grey

Theatre Kinght

Tidal Bay

 

I would ignore all the runners in the National as there are to many and just stick to the others over the 3 days that will reduce the list right down

 

Good Luck

[mattyq]

Good work, Bob

Cheers and good luck!

[bobhorse]

For anyone who wants to have a go at trying to pick the winners here are some pointers

 

Aintree Thursday

 

14:00

Race has been run 4 times and all 4 winners where in the 1st 3 in the betting

All had ran at Cheltenham LTO

All had Placed at the National meeting before

All finished in the first 3 last time out

3 of the last 4 winners finished 1 2 or 3 in the World Hurdle @ Cheltenham

This that should narrow down the field

Winner Blazing Bailey just mised out on the other trends by finishing 4th in World hurdle

 

14:35

9 out of 10 ran at Cheltenham LTO would have been 10 but for foot and mouth

18 of the last 24 ran in the Gold Cup LTO (7 of last 9 )

6 out of 11 where 1 2 or 3 in the King George that year

Only 3 -10 favs have won and none priced over 14/1 have won in the last 10 years

Winner Our Vic dindnt run in Gold cup but met all the other trends

 

15:10

9 out of 10 had won at least 1 of there last 3 starts

7 of the last 8 ran in the Triumph Hurdle including the last 6

15 out of 18 had won at least 2 hurdle races that year

So that will narrow the field down will have to see who decides to take on Celestial Halo again

Winner Binocular Didn't run in the triumph was entered but owner had two in the race and took this one out met all other trends had the forecast

15:45

The last 6 winners of this where not brought through Pointing Hunting ranks

14 of the last 15 where placed at worse last time out

14 of the last 15 where from the first 4 in the betting 9of 10 priced under 8/1

Horses aged 8 or under are 0 from 24

Horses aged 13 or older are 0 form 28

Horses that ran at Cheltenham have a poor record in this

Irish trained horses have won 1 of the last 25 running’s

Winner Christy Beamish 2nd Katarino 2nd and 3rd in the betting nice forecast again

 

 

16:20

10 out of 10 where aged 7-9y old 18 or 19 where 9 or younger

5 of the last 6 carried under 11st

All 10 had run no more than 5 times that season

Horse priced 16/1 + are 0 from 44

7 of last 10 where priced under 7/1

9 of last 10 were in the fist 5 in the betting not a race for outsiders

5 of the last 9 ran in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham

Paul Nicholls has had 13 runners without a winner in this race

Winner Stan a losing race for me

 

16:55

4y olds are 0 from 26

No winner older than 6 for 20 years

8 of the last 11 finished in the top 6 at Cheltenham Festival

7 out of 10 had won at least 2 races that season already

9 of the last 10 had ran at least 4 times that season

Irish bred horses have won 7 of the last 10

8 of last 10 where in the first 2 in the betting

P Nicholls is 2 from 2 in this race

All 4 of N Richards have won or been placed

Winner Elusive Dream plus laid Francheok for a nice result

 

 

17:30

15 of the 19 had won that season

18 of the last 19 carried 10st 5lbs or more

Irish trained Horses have won 4 out of 10

JP McManus has won 4 of the last 10

7 of the last 8 started at double figure prices

7 of the last 10 finished in the first 4 LTO

All 43 runners priced 28/1 or bigger have lost

All 33 runners from outside the handicap have lost

Winner Auroras Encore a losing race for me

 

well that was the first day a good day for me i hope it went well for others