Russia v Ukraine

[Gnasher]

9 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

Since you ask, it wasn't, I didn't think you would know.

 

And speaking of old tired jibes etc., you should get a license for this complete lack of self-awareness, because it's really a lethal weapon.

 

Why did you ask then you pathetic little cunt? War expert? You should get a license for being totally wrong on almost everything on a regular basis. As you were once again in your last but one post  It still doesn't stop you blowing smoke up your own arse. You're probably the most pompous prick to grace the internet. Probably with shares in the war machine. A coward who loves to talk a good game but happy to let others do the fighting. The closest you've ever got to seeing action was stumbling in to see the boys at army cadets ramming the butt end of a rifle up your granny's arse.  A two bob cunt who thinks he's a dollar. 

[SasaS]

23 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

Why did you ask then you pathetic little cunt? War expert? You should get a license for being totally wrong on almost everything on a regular basis. As you were once again in your last but one post  It still doesn't stop you blowing smoke up your own arse. You're probably the most pompous prick to grace the internet. Probably with shares in the war machine. A coward who loves to talk a good game but happy to let others do the fighting. The closest you've ever got to seeing action was stumbling in to see the boys at army cadets ramming the butt end of a rifle up your granny's arse.  A two bob cunt who thinks he's a dollar. 

 

 

 

[Gnasher]

7 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

 

 

 

Your grannys face with the rifle up her arse.

[TheHowieLama]

"I'm off now, seriously!"

[TheHowieLama]

I think Germany easily lost most as they were heavily reliant on the Ruskies for energy.

 

It takes a village:

 

Q4 2023 Reuters- 

High levels of gas storage, lower energy prices and new sources of fuel mean Europe is heading into a second winter with scarce Russian gas in a more comfortable position than a year ago.

After decades of relying on Russia to supply cheap gas, resuming that dependency became more unlikely than ever following the explosions a year ago today that hit the Nord Stream pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.

Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline had accounted for 15% of Europe's gas imports in 2021, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Now prices are much lower. European gas benchmark the front month contract on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility is trading at around 40 euros compared with 180 euros a year ago.

"Our biggest risk was that Russia can manipulate our energy markets," EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson told Reuters. "They don't have this leverage any more."

 

 

Germany:

 

Germany imported 55% of its gas from Russia at the time, and many argued that the embargo would crush Germany’s economy. Before Germany could act, Russian began cutting the flow of gas to Germany, eventually halting it entirely. A new BPEA paper studied the effects of this abrupt change and found that the consequences were not as dire as many experts feared it would be. 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-did-germany-fare-without-russian-gas/

[Gnasher]

51 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

I think Germany easily lost most as they were heavily reliant on the Ruskies for energy.

 

It takes a village:

 

Q4 2023 Reuters- 

High levels of gas storage, lower energy prices and new sources of fuel mean Europe is heading into a second winter with scarce Russian gas in a more comfortable position than a year ago.

After decades of relying on Russia to supply cheap gas, resuming that dependency became more unlikely than ever following the explosions a year ago today that hit the Nord Stream pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.

Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline had accounted for 15% of Europe's gas imports in 2021, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Now prices are much lower. European gas benchmark the front month contract on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility is trading at around 40 euros compared with 180 euros a year ago.

"Our biggest risk was that Russia can manipulate our energy markets," EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson told Reuters. "They don't have this leverage any more."

 

 

Germany:

 

Germany imported 55% of its gas from Russia at the time, and many argued that the embargo would crush Germany’s economy. Before Germany could act, Russian began cutting the flow of gas to Germany, eventually halting it entirely. A new BPEA paper studied the effects of this abrupt change and found that the consequences were not as dire as many experts feared it would be. 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-did-germany-fare-without-russian-gas/

 

Your point being? 

[M_B]

14 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

Russia is going to win jack shit. Unfortunately neither are Ukraine. Its time to face facts and stop more innocents losing their lives. 

 

Russia will win by pausing the war to considate its gains in eastern Ukraine and rebuild its armed forces. Then in 3 to 5 years time Putin will attempt to grab some more land in Ukraine and more innocents will die.

 

If peace includes Ukraine joining NATO then fine - I suspect Ukraine would accept that at this point - but the Russians won't allow that because their intention is to annex the entire country.

 

The fact you need to face is Putin wants to end Ukraine's existance and will kill a lot of innocents to achieve it.

[SasaS]

Amendments to the Ukraine bill being submitted.

 

She's a rascal.

 

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

23 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

Your point being? 

 

That you were not right unfortunately. Or the source you use is incorrect. Again.

 

In 2022 Russian oil and gas accounted for approximately 40% of total revenue, today that figure is approx 24%  

 

 

It is fairly easy to find this stuff - it takes about 30 seconds. I think it might be your sources.

[TheHowieLama]

1 minute ago, SasaS said:

Amendments to the Ukraine bill being submitted.

 

She's a rascal.

 

 

 

 

 

ChristoMike has obviously had a good talking to by the big boys across the hall - he won't put up with this.

[Gnasher]

10 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

That you were not right unfortunately. Or the source you use is incorrect. Again.

 

In 2022 Russian oil and gas accounted for approximately 40% of total revenue, today that figure is approx 24%  

 

 

It is fairly easy to find this stuff - it takes about 30 seconds. I think it might be your sources.

 

Er OK mate cheers for that ta. Game of catch is it? Can I have a go?  You the numbskull trying to spread fake news again over the Israeli thread on the Saudis the other day? 

 

Shame you didn't spend 10 minutes on that one eh?

[TheHowieLama]

It could also be your process.

 

Either sources or process.

[Gnasher]

11 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

It could also be your process.

 

Either sources or process.

 

OK ta.

[TheHowieLama]

11 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

You the numbskull trying to spread fake news again over the Israeli thread on the Saudis the other day? 

 

Shame you didn't spend 10 minutes on that one eh?

 

Twas a news report and unfrotunately the "disproving" of it seems to have disappeared.

 

Here is another news report:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-attack-israel-hamas-war-saudi-arabia-jordan-uae-coalition-rcna147965

An Israeli response, however, would test the durability of an informal coalition of awkward bedfellows, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, whose recent cooperation against Iran has the potential to be damaging on the home front, analysts say.  

 

“Those Arab countries are in a very critical situation,” said Oraib Al Rantawi, director of the Al Quds Center for Political Studies, a think tank based in Jordan’s capital, Amman. “There is no easy position to take for all of them, especially Jordan, which for geopolitical reasons has found itself trapped between two troublemakers — Iran and Israel.”  

 

Not sure why it would be news in India, but it is:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-confirms-helping-israel-against-iranian-attack/articleshow/109344061.cms

[Gnasher]

41 minutes ago, M_B said:

 

Russia will win by pausing the war to considate its gains in eastern Ukraine and rebuild its armed forces. Then in 3 to 5 years time Putin will attempt to grab some more land in Ukraine and more innocents will die.

 

If peace includes Ukraine joining NATO then fine - I suspect Ukraine would accept that at this point - but the Russians won't allow that because their intention is to annex the entire country.

 

The fact you need to face is Putin wants to end Ukraine's existance and will kill a lot of innocents to achieve it.

 

 

Ok, a lot of guesswork there. Not saying you're wrong but I'm not so sure Putin or the Russians would welcome another disaster such as this anytime soon.  

[Gnasher]

7 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

Twas a news report and unfrotunately the "disproving" of it seems to have disappeared.

 

Here is another news report:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-attack-israel-hamas-war-saudi-arabia-jordan-uae-coalition-rcna147965

An Israeli response, however, would test the durability of an informal coalition of awkward bedfellows, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, whose recent cooperation against Iran has the potential to be damaging on the home front, analysts say.  

 

“Those Arab countries are in a very critical situation,” said Oraib Al Rantawi, director of the Al Quds Center for Political Studies, a think tank based in Jordan’s capital, Amman. “There is no easy position to take for all of them, especially Jordan, which for geopolitical reasons has found itself trapped between two troublemakers — Iran and Israel.”  

 

Not sure why it would be news in India, but it is:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-confirms-helping-israel-against-iranian-attack/articleshow/109344061.cms

 

Er OK. If that source makes you feel better then you believe it. I'd say this is both process and source with you,  so by your own mark you've hit a double. Well done. 

[TheHowieLama]

Back to the pipelines:

 

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, in a statement made during the emergency meeting of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), in Saudi Jeddah city last October called on Muslim countries to stop exporting oil to Israel. Despite the fact that the OIC has a special office dedicated to boycotting Israel, none of the organisation’s member states considered even a temporary oil boycott of the apartheid state—the highest degree of hypocrisy for which, ironically, most Muslim and Arab country continue to blame the West, particularly the US.

 

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240418-hypocritical-arab-and-muslim-countries-help-israel-kill-more-palestinians-while-condemning-it/

[Gnasher]

11 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

 

How, precisely, do you propose that we 'stop more innocents losing their lives?'

 

Maybe you missed this, but the world tried the "give Putin the portion of Ukraine he's already conquered in order to make peace" thing in Minsk in 2014.

 

The deal was this - Putin, you (and your proxies) get to keep Crimea and a portion of the Donbass. In exchange, both parties agree to stop shelling each other. Sounds like they "faced facts to stop more innocents from losing their lives," right?

 

It lasted 7 months. Just enough time for Putin to reconstitute his army and launch another offensive in January 2015. Putin captured some more territory and Ukraine, desperate to "stop more innocents losing their lives," agreed to peace AGAIN. This was known as "Minsk 2," and was ratified by both parties in February 2015.

 

Putin's proxies then declared that "the peace agreement doesn't apply to this particular piece of the frontline" and went on an assault again. Ukraine responded, not with military action but by passing a law that gave the Donbass special political status with more independence, as Putin claimed he had wanted.

 

So Russia responded by moving in more heavy artillery and killing 430 Ukrainian soldiers. And then in March 2016 the Russian Foreign Minister announced that Russia was "not a party to the Minsk 2 agreement" and then a few years later, after a massive Russian campaign to build loyalty in Ukraine and a huge military buildup, they carried out the full-scale invasion of Feb 2022.

 

I am utterly mystified by anyone whose response to the above facts (which no one, including the Russians, dispute) is "you know what we should do? Give Putin what he wants to 'stop innocents losing their lives.'"

 

Giving Putin what he wants (a negotiated settlement that allows him to keep control of the Ukrainian territory he has invaded) is precisely what will lead to more innocents losing their lives, you absolute cretin.

 

Shoe me where anyone has suggested "give  Putin what he wants? 

 

Why do you tell lies?  

[SasaS]

[TheHowieLama]

Somebody shoe him...

[SasaS]

Speaking of Russian economy, I see Kaufman has shared a link to his Carnegie colleague Prokopenko's latest article. Stability extended to 18 months now.

 

https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/04/10/is-kremlin-overconfident-about-russia-s-economic-stability-pub-92174

 

Twitter thread with highlights:

 

 

 

[TheSire]

2 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

Shoe me where anyone has suggested "give  Putin what he wants? 

 

Why do you tell lies?  

I think he just means that you can't compromise with dictators, they'll just make demands that are so one sided they'll never be accepted. The big problem is that Putin probably feels he has to stick this out to save face unless Ukraine just hand over territory, the issue is there would likely only be a temporary pause in the violence.

[Ne Moe Imya]

12 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

Shoe me where anyone has suggested "give  Putin what he wants? 

 

Why do you tell lies?  

 

You said we should "face facts, it's time to stop more innocents losing their lives."

 

From Putin's perspective, there are only two reasons he would stop killing innocent people: 1)he can't any more, because his army is defeated, or 2)he got what he wanted.

 

So unless you had changed your mind radically in a way that contradicted everything you've ever posted on this topic, I assumed you meant the second option. I think that was a reasonable inference.

[Gnasher]

21 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

 

You said we should "face facts, it's time to stop more innocents losing their lives."

 

From Putin's perspective, there are only two reasons he would stop killing innocent people: 1)he can't any more, because his army is defeated, or 2)he got what he wanted.

 

So unless you had changed your mind radically in a way that contradicted everything you've ever posted on this topic, I assumed you meant the second option. I think that was a reasonable inference.

 

Nope. It's not a reasonable inference. 

 

The facts are the Russian economy has not imploded. The Ukrainian counter offensive was not successful. The war in Gaza has changed focus and perceptions (especially on the difference in American reaction and hypocrisy). The amount of Ukrainians dodging service is high  (a bbc report puts it at 650,000: link futher up if you can wade through the fog of bullshit). War weariness is beginning to set in. The Russians are not as isolated as they were in the months after the invasion. Zelensky has sacked his genera. Western countries have elections this year which will take precedence over Ukraine. Last but not least, most conflicts end in negotiations. It does not in anyway mean "Giving Putin what he wants". 

 

 

 

This is the link I originally posted a bit further up before getting thrown off subject. In the link it's describing the previous negotiations. Its imo an excellent article and summary. You make of it what you will. I'm going to leave this here, no point getting into anymore juvenile tit for tats. 

 

 

 

 

Article here, if you don't want to read Ragozins summary above. 

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine?s=09

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ne Moe Imya]

You didn't reply to my question in any way whatsoever.

 

I'm not arguing about the Russian economy or about the Ukrainian counteroffensive, or any of that. 

 

I'll say it again: from Putin's perspective, there are only two reasons he would stop killing innocent people: 1)he can't any more, because his army is defeated, or 2)he got what he wanted (in other words, a negotiated peace deal that allows him to refit his army to go again and to keep a large chunk of Ukrainian territory).

 

Which of those two do you prefer? There is no third option, if you want peace.