Coronavirus

[Spy Bee]

The headlines about variants are all scare stories to keep people complying with instructions. Specially designed soundbites from the Nudge Unit or whatever the fuck it's called.

 

If you dig deeper and look into the detail, there is nothing to fear from these variants. 

 

It's virtually gone in Wales. less than 200 cases on a Tuesday. With the vaccines becoming more effective by the day and the seasonality likely playing a part, he's got to significantly reduce restrictions next Friday.

[Bjornebye]

3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

The headlines about variants are all scare stories to keep people complying with instructions. Specially designed soundbites from the Nudge Unit or whatever the fuck it's called.

 

If you dig deeper and look into the detail, there is nothing to fear from these variants. 

 

It's virtually gone in Wales. less than 200 cases on a Tuesday. With the vaccines becoming more effective by the day and the seasonality likely playing a part, he's got to significantly reduce restrictions next Friday.

Yeah significantly reducing restrictions has worked wonders this past 12 months. 

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

Yeah significantly reducing restrictions has worked wonders this past 12 months. 

And of course all the variables have been static for that period, and remain static today.

[cloggypop]

Whereas in the Netherlands the UK varient now accounts for two thirds of new infections. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands-tally-idUSKBN2AG1UZ

[Barrington Womble]

7 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

I don't think everyone would be fucked. There would need to be another lockdown for a couple of months while they tweaked the vaccine but it wouldn't be a case of starting again.

 

 

if it is vaccine resistant it would be a case of starting again, at least if it meant people we're getting hospitalised at previous rates. and it takes 6 months to roll out the vaccine when they're working at break neck speed. there might never be such a variant, in fact the virus might become next to nothing going forward. But it's far from a guarantee and what is 100% certain, if it appears it takes a turn for the worse, we will do what we've done before and just keep going till the nhs is on its knees. what we absolutely won't do is shut all borders and try to contain it and commit to a "world class test & trace". Once we're open again, that's how it will stay unless we're overwhelmed again. 

[Spy Bee]

Just now, cloggypop said:

Whereas in the Netherlands the UK varient now accounts for two thirds of new infections. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands-tally-idUSKBN2AG1UZ

Lots of variants take their turn at being dominant. It doesn't mean that they are particularly more contagious. If it did then the variants that the red tops were screaming about over here 6 weeks ago would still be dominant and running riot.

[cloggypop]

Just now, Spy Bee said:

Lots of variants take their turn at being dominant. It doesn't mean that they are particularly more contagious. If it did then the variants that the red tops were screaming about over here 6 weeks ago would still be dominant and running riot.

It seems to have a much higher r number. It is accountable for more than 2/3 of new cases. That is certainly more contagious. 

[Barrington Womble]

1 minute ago, Spy Bee said:

Lots of variants take their turn at being dominant. It doesn't mean that they are particularly more contagious. If it did then the variants that the red tops were screaming about over here 6 weeks ago would still be dominant and running riot.

but it can mean they are more contagious. so you can't just dismiss it - which i know is your style, if you hear anything you don't like, you just ignore it. you've been doing it for 12 months - you've been telling us since the start lockdowns don't work and the virus just naturally dies out and we were already at herd immunity and all manner of mad shite. yet it has taken a vaccine to make real inroads as the rest of us know. 

[Spy Bee]

Just now, Barrington Womble said:

but it can mean they are more contagious. so you can't just dismiss it - which i know is your style, if you hear anything you don't like, you just ignore it. you've been doing it for 12 months - you've been telling us since the start lockdowns don't work and the virus just naturally dies out and we were already at herd immunity and all manner of mad shite. yet it has taken a vaccine to make real inroads as the rest of us know. 

I think you've made about 80% of that up.

 

As for my point about the variants, the data shows that none are truly more contagious. 

 

[cloggypop]

3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I think you've made about 80% of that up.

 

As for my point about the variants, the data shows that none are truly more contagious. 

 

But that's a load of bullshit

 

https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/uk-variant-gains-ground-in-the-netherlands#:~:text=Pathogen surveillance** data shows,January) have the UK variant.

[Jairzinho]

10 minutes ago, Barrington Womble said:

if it is vaccine resistant it would be a case of starting again, at least if it meant people we're getting hospitalised at previous rates. and it takes 6 months to roll out the vaccine when they're working at break neck speed. there might never be such a variant, in fact the virus might become next to nothing going forward. But it's far from a guarantee and what is 100% certain, if it appears it takes a turn for the worse, we will do what we've done before and just keep going till the nhs is on its knees. what we absolutely won't do is shut all borders and try to contain it and commit to a "world class test & trace". Once we're open again, that's how it will stay unless we're overwhelmed again. 

Well, ok, in your scenario, yes. Thankfully, it is desperately unlikely.

[Spy Bee]

2 minutes ago, cloggypop said:

But that's a load of bullshit

 

https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/uk-variant-gains-ground-in-the-netherlands#:~:text=Pathogen surveillance** data shows,January) have the UK variant.

I didn't say that different strains don't have periods of dominance, so what exactly are you calling bullshit?

[Barrington Womble]

10 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I think you've made about 80% of that up.

 

As for my point about the variants, the data shows that none are truly more contagious. 

 

I have made 80% of that up. OK, so it wasn't you who has been spouting shit for the last year about how it's all ok then? 

[Spy Bee]

Just now, Barrington Womble said:

I have made 80% of that up. OK, so it wasn't you who has been spouting shit for the last year about how it's all ok then? 

If you can justify all the claims that you have made above, please do so.

[Barrington Womble]

7 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

Well, ok, in your scenario, yes. Thankfully, it is desperately unlikely.

which is why i said i think we will be alright unless that happens. loads of things are unlikely, they still happen though. if we'd (and many other countries, not just the twats here) have listened to the countries who have been hurt by previous virus outbreaks, we would have reacted in a completely different way, instead we took the path "that's pretty unlikely" and britished on as usual to great cost. if the worst thing happens, we will do exactly the same. 

[Barrington Womble]

3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

If you can justify all the claims that you have made above, please do so.

please go back to page 1 of this thread and start to read. 

[Section_31]

The variant banter always tends to crop up when people take the vaccine stuff to heart and decend on Formby beech by their tens of millions. 

 

It's never just a variant, often it's a worrying variant or, at best, a variant with some "worrying" genetic changes which has got scientists "concerned".

 

The media is largely reduced to social science mouthpiece now, terrify you into staying in, then get you out, then get you to STAY in, all depending on the pressure on the NHS and economic situation of the day.

 

There's method to the madness no doubt, designed to stop riots and the likes, but the damage to mental health in the long term will be monumental.

 

I've mentioned it before but modern day torture methods aren't based around pain, they're based around disruption, up down, hot cold, sleep awake, food no food. Your brain can adapt to anything except uncertainty, and uncertainty is what these people deal in.

 

You could cope with the blitz after a while, you could cope with having your kids evacuated, what you couldn't deal with is being told the war is over one day and back on the next, or your kids coming home one week then being sent back to Wales the next.

 

"Now D Day may have appeared to go well but there's worrying reports of a worrying new variant of Nazi starting to emerge in the low countries. In his press conference, Jonathan Van Tam stopped short of criticising the sailor who snogged that bird in Times Square, but said: There may be blue birds over, the white cliffs of Dover, but the war, it is not over."

[Jenson]

33 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

The headlines about variants are all scare stories to keep people complying with instructions. Specially designed soundbites from the Nudge Unit or whatever the fuck it's called.

 

If you dig deeper and look into the detail, there is nothing to fear from these variants. 

 

It's virtually gone in Wales. less than 200 cases on a Tuesday. With the vaccines becoming more effective by the day and the seasonality likely playing a part, he's got to significantly reduce restrictions next Friday.

 

What's the rush? A bit of time taken now will hopefully ensure that we never have to go into lockdown again.

[cloggypop]

1 minute ago, Jenson said:

 

What's the rush? A bit of time taken now will hopefully ensure that we never have to go into lockdown again.

He's hoping for a peepshow on wheels. 

[Jairzinho]

15 minutes ago, Barrington Womble said:

which is why i said i think we will be alright unless that happens. loads of things are unlikely, they still happen though. if we'd (and many other countries, not just the twats here) have listened to the countries who have been hurt by previous virus outbreaks, we would have reacted in a completely different way, instead we took the path "that's pretty unlikely" and britished on as usual to great cost. if the worst thing happens, we will do exactly the same. 

I'm not convinced that this Tory government would have changed their tact if they listened to countries that have experienced this before. Their tactics are to do the minimum they can possibly get away with and they gauge this by leaking things to the press through lickspittles like Laura Cuntberg and seeing which way the wind blows re the public.

 

However, my "unlikely" post refers specifically to the quantity of strains already found and the likelihood of a new one developing that would be so radically different that vaccines couldn't be tweaked. For example, as far as I'm aware, there are a limited amount of ways that the RNA of a virus can change.

 

 

[Sugar Ape]

33 minutes ago, Barrington Womble said:

but it can mean they are more contagious. so you can't just dismiss it - which i know is your style, if you hear anything you don't like, you just ignore it. you've been doing it for 12 months - you've been telling us since the start lockdowns don't work and the virus just naturally dies out and we were already at herd immunity and all manner of mad shite. yet it has taken a vaccine to make real inroads as the rest of us know. 

 

31 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I think you've made about 80% of that up.

 

As for my point about the variants, the data shows that none are truly more contagious. 

 

Honestly this took me about five minutes to find just by searching for what you’ve said with the word ‘herd’ or ‘lockdowns’ in it and I didn’t even look at all the results. 

 

On 19/10/2020 at 14:37, Spy Bee said:

Yes, but the idea of a circuit breaker is total theory. It's never been done and nobody knows what the results will be. In the north west infections continued to grow when they were in lockdown. Because the national lockdown appeared to have good results everyone presumes they work, but perhaps infections fell because of the time of year and the seasonality of the virus.

 

On 19/10/2020 at 14:38, Tony Moanero said:

Give it a rest. A couple of weeks isn’t going to hurt you. What do you suggest as an alternative, just carry on as things are?

 

On 19/10/2020 at 14:39, Spy Bee said:

Yep. 

 

On 19/10/2020 at 14:49, Barrington Womble said:

so you are saying lockdowns don't work? despite all the evidence that says they do? 

 

On 19/10/2020 at 14:57, Spy Bee said:

Happy to be convinced otherwise. Show me where lockdowns work when the virus is endemic?

 

On 19/10/2020 at 15:14, Spy Bee said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/28/lack-evidence-lockdowns-actually-worked-world-scandal/

 

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/07/was-lockdown-waste-time-study-finds-stay-home-order-was-ineffective-12668944/

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347635/Lockdowns-failed-alter-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html

 

https://www.degruyter.com/view/journals/ev/ahead-of-print/article-10.1515-ev-2020-0015/article-10.1515-ev-2020-0015.xml?language=en

 

On 19/10/2020 at 15:34, Spy Bee said:

I am questioning lockdown when the virus has a really strong foothold in the population. I've made that quite clear.

 

On 12/10/2020 at 10:12, Spy Bee said:

That's an interesting turn of events, the WHO coming out against lockdowns. I suppose everyone will stop calling me and SD all the cunts under the sun for agreeing with that sentiment now?

 

The WHO might catch up soon and come out against asymptomatic people wearing masks soon, too.

 

On 24/09/2020 at 08:52, Spy Bee said:

I agree with the stricter bit. I am not convinced lockdowns do anything beneficial, and the science is far from certain. Social distancing, hand washing, limiting the people you come into close contact with, working from home. All those things are manageable and control the flow. Japan seem to have had very effective results doing this and now have high immunity. 

 

I just think we need to have a balance that lets us live as close to normally as possible, while still allowing people (especially those at most rick) to protect themselves.

 

We need clear communications based on scientific fact, and people need to be responsible for their own behaviour where at all possible.

 

On 12/08/2020 at 15:28, Spy Bee said:

https://amp.9news.com.au/article/1b1c7b36-65d2-482a-8c6b-f9703aca6fa7?__twitter_impression=true

 

There are some early signs the United Kingdom could be approaching coronavirus herd immunity, which may shine a spotlight on Australia's commitment to a suppression strategy.

A leading epidemiologist, Professor John Mathews from University of Melbourne, said the latest British data would need to be assessed in about a fortnight in "the cold light of day" but herd immunity may be occurring.

Official statistics from NHS England pointed to a huge drop in the number of coronavirus patients being treated in hospitals now compared to mid-April, during the height of the pandemic.

 

Doctors in England are today treating around 700 patients daily, down from approximately 17,000 four months ago.

The 96 percent drop has led to suggestions herd immunity could be close.

Prof. Mathews, a former head of Australia's National Centre for Disease Control and ex-Federal Government Deputy Chief Medical Officer, said the UK's delayed lockdown measures may ultimately prove advantageous.

The UK waited longer than many European countries to enforce strict lockdowns.

During a media briefing in early March, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said banning major public events would have little effect on the spread of the virus.

 

On 08/10/2020 at 15:44, Spy Bee said:

Nobody is writing off the vulnerable. How duplicitous can you be?

 

I think the best way to a lower mortality rate in encouraging controlled herd immunity. 

 

There you go, four word. That sums it up.

 

On 08/10/2020 at 15:10, Spy Bee said:

Suicide rates up

Depression rates up

Death by cardiac problems up

Undiagnosed cancers up

Treatments and scans down

Dental treatment down

 

I could go on..

 

My missus works in a doctors, and someone died last week because they didn't take the advice to go to hospital with a blue light because they were scared of Covid.

 

Open society up for those that are willing, build a level of herd immunity quickly and thereby protect the vulnerable. 

 

 

 

On 08/10/2020 at 14:14, Spy Bee said:

Call it what you like... protect the vulnerable as best as we can, but consider things holistically. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54442386

Click link to read full article

Coronavirus: Health experts join global anti-lockdown movement

 

Thousands of scientists and health experts have joined a global movement warning of "grave concerns" about Covid-19 lockdown policies.

Nearly 6,000 experts, including dozens from the UK, say the approach is having a devastating impact on physical and mental health as well as society.

They are calling for protection to be focused on the vulnerable, while healthy people get on with their lives.

The declaration has prompted warnings by others in the scientific community.

Critics have pointed out:

• a more targeted approach could make it difficult to protect vulnerable people entirely
• the risk of long-term complications from coronavirus mean many others are also at risk

But the movement - known as the Great Barrington Declaration - mirrors some of the warnings in a letter signed by a group of GPs in the UK.

Sixty-six GPs, including TV doctors Dr Phil Hammond and Dr Rosemary Leonard and a number of medics who have held senior roles at the British Medical Association, have written to the health secretary, saying there is insufficient emphasis on "non-Covid harms" in the decision-making.

What is the Great Barrington Declaration?

The movement started in the US.

And the declaration has now been signed by nearly 6,000 scientists and medical experts across the globe as well as 50,000 members of the public.

The UK-based experts who have signed it include:

• Dr Sunetra Gupta, an epidemiologist at Oxford University
• Nottingham University self-harm expert Prof Ellen Townsend
• Edinburgh University disease modeller Dr Paul McKeigue

They say keeping the lockdown policies in place until a vaccine is available would cause "irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed".

The health harms cited include:

• lower childhood vaccination rates
• worsening care for heart disease and cancer patients

And they point out the risk from coronavirus is 1,000 times greater for the old and infirm, with children more at risk from flu than Covid-19.

 

 

On 08/10/2020 at 14:16, Brownie said:

A simple “yes” would suffice mate.

 

You go and knock yourself out and contract it if you want mate, I want fuck all to do with it having seen what it’s done to relatively healthy people, never mind the vulnerable.

 

On 08/10/2020 at 14:24, Spy Bee said:

I would like the opportunity to decide for myself, and you can still do whatever you want to 'stay safe'.

 

On 08/10/2020 at 14:36, Brownie said:

No mate I don’t read the forums very often, can’t remember the last time I was on here.

 

I’m not touchy at all, it’s well known that people use speech marks for sarcasm so I was just asking. I could have made an assumption but thought it wise to check.

 

I think the idea of herd immunity is bonkers.

 

On 08/10/2020 at 14:39, Spy Bee said:

Why? That's how vaccine's work. This is why I said "call it what you like" because when Johnson first mooted "taking it on the chin" we were talking about 5% fatality rates etc, but now we know that on healthy young people the fatality rate is miniscule. With that knowledge, herd immunity is absolutely viable, and I would argue is for the greater good of society.

 

We cannot shut down society forever with all the collateral damage that causes, just because of Covid. Many other things cause suffering and death.

 

On 24/09/2020 at 15:34, Spy Bee said:

Certainly not good news about the reinfections. Not good news for herd immunity, not good news for a vaccine.

 

All the more reason not to go into another lockdown. We cannot pretend that the only thing that kills people is Covid.

 

On 23/09/2020 at 13:39, Spy Bee said:

I wouldn't have chosen herd immunity either when we thought that this was going to kill between 1 and 5% of the population. But this thing is dynamic and the information available has grown exponentially. As such, I now advocate for the Swedish Model. As do many scientists.

 

On 23/09/2020 at 12:58, Spy Bee said:

The right to mix with my family and friends. The right to walk in public places without wearing a mask. The right to be in a pub at 10.30. I'm sure you're pretty familiar with the rules.

 

If we have no vaccine in 6 months, then what?

 

I don't know why you lot can't have a discussion without absolutely polarising debate. Do any of us want to see old people locked up? No. Is there an argument that the best way forward would be to protect those that are the most vulnerable while achieving herd immunity? Yes. 

 

You don't need to be Harold Shipman's biggest fan to think that this may be the best way forward.

 

On 23/09/2020 at 13:24, Spy Bee said:

Sweden has less deaths per million than the UK and much less disruption to their every day lives and damage to their economy, so I think you are correct to bring up that country as an example.

 

On 06/06/2020 at 15:15, Spy Bee said:

The first point is fair, even in Australia and New Zealand there are some restrictions and that's sensible.

 

I don't think people will be habitually wearing masks and socially distancing by September. Some might, but I think thing will soon return to normality.

 

My theory is that somehow, and not through good government, we have reached a level of herd immunity*. This has slowed the R Rate and will continue to do so, but we will see regional spikes where the herd immunity has not been achieved, but the virus spread will continue to slow on the whole.

 

*Not by 80% infection, by some innate immunity that we perhaps don't understand, although maybe it's T Cell responses.

 

[Bjornebye]

Fake news 

[Mudface]

On 06/06/2020 at 15:15, Spy Bee said:

The first point is fair, even in Australia and New Zealand there are some restrictions and that's sensible.

 

I don't think people will be habitually wearing masks and socially distancing by September. Some might, but I think thing will soon return to normality.

 

My theory is that somehow, and not through good government, we have reached a level of herd immunity*. This has slowed the R Rate and will continue to do so, but we will see regional spikes where the herd immunity has not been achieved, but the virus spread will continue to slow on the whole.

 

*Not by 80% infection, by some innate immunity that we perhaps don't understand, although maybe it's T Cell responses.

32 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Honestly this took me about five minutes to find just by searching for what you’ve said with the word ‘herd’ or ‘lockdowns’ in it and I didn’t even look at all the results. 

The one above is my favourite. 'Magic', basically.

[sir roger]

Been asked to go online to book a test , seems weird that there seems no major issue getting the first test booked but they are not letting me confirm as there are no 2nd test dates in three months time.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, sir roger said:

Been asked to go online to book a test , seems weird that there seems no major issue getting the first test booked but they are not letting me confirm as there are no 2nd test dates in three months time.

Do you mean vaccination?