Should the UK remain a member of the EU

[Numero Veinticinco]

Just now, skend04 said:

This is where I stopped reading. Was the rest of the post any good?

Negative.

[Gnasher]

If their was a referendum now I'd be surprised if the winning out margin wasn't wider although that may be because of the UK vaccination success plus seeing Vonn der Leyen out in the open. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

Next time your in a pub or a cafe ask a builder, ask a few construction workers. It's not rocket science. Or ask Tim Martin.

 

Here you go..

 

https://www.fenews.co.uk/press-releases/79-sp-821/62662-jobs-boost-for-brits-in-construction-sector-brexit-bounce-back

 

Ask a builder about economics? Great idea. I'll ask an economist to sort out the wall in our front garden while I'm at it.

[Numero Veinticinco]

38 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

If their was a referendum now I'd be surprised if the winning out margin wasn't wider although that may be because of the UK vaccination success plus seeing Vonn der Leyen out in the open. 

Whilst I agree it would be wider, I’m not sure what that’s proof of? The margin of victory for the Tories was wider in 2019 than 2017. That’s not proof to me that Johnson was better than Corbyn. It’s proof that a powerful media influences an ignorant populace. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

Nothing is all about one thing Angry,

This is exactly what I've been trying to tell you since 2016.

 

you're in denial.

About what?

 

Don't know how long it'll last

That's my point

 

 

but at this precise moment most uk workers are doing OK.

No they are not. Wages in construction have increased. That's not "most UK workers".

 

Leaving the EU and depleting the labour pool has resulted in increased wages and better job security.

No it hasn't.  There is no evidence of this. You're using Underpants Gnome logic:

Step 1  -  Brexit

Step 2  -  ?

Step 3  -  Better pay & conditions 

.

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

 

 

 

[Numero Veinticinco]

And regarding things like wages for builders, nobody ever said that some things after Brexit would be better. A byproduct of Brexit is that employers can’t exploit the market as easily by underpaying staff. The solution wasn’t to leave Europe and it’s not the only thing it’s going to impact, both for positive and for negative. Either way, nobody thinks that there would be zero upside. That includes for some British workers who were being undercut. The issue comes when you balance everything else. 

[thechap]

4 hours ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

*blink*

 

What? No. I'm saying we're only just into the reality of Brexit - a few months of pandemic hit data - and we will need to wait. My sarcastic comment was really just a snipe at that. We don't know how Brexit will impact us over the long term, and predictions of year on year growth after such a dramatic downturn with impending austerity surely aren't worth the matchbox they're worked out on. 

We do know that we are free to make our own decisions and not have them made for us by unelected bureaucrats who no public voted in or can vote out 

 

I think Boris ballsed up the Withdrawal Agreement by setting up a notional border in the Irish Sea. That seemed weak to me although it seems they *may* be making efforts to undo that. 

 

Even so, it will take a small number of years for the after-effects of Brexit to settle down. Once they do I have no doubt that trade will be as easy as ever it was because, crucially, easy trade benefits both sides.

 

The EU is a busted flush and will soon be history. It's their own fault because they got power greedy and acted in the best interests of politics and politicians rather than of people. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

I am honestly convinced that people don’t bother to read what has been written and they just use what you’ve posted to post whatever view point they have whether it is relevant to what you’ve posted or not. 

[Gnasher]

7 hours ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

If a hypothetical financial crisis led to a hypothetical bailout, which came with hypothetical conditions, a hypothetical referendum could go in favour of leaving the Euro.

 

Probably useful for policy makers to refer to, but calling it "trouble brewing" is it?

You should really have delved a little deeper before you wrote your first sentence. "hypothetical" is not the right word to describe the Italian financial situation.

[Gnasher]

6 hours ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

And regarding things like wages for builders, nobody ever said that some things after Brexit would be better.

 

Really? Did they? Some people are actually denying the upsides even now.

6 hours ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

A byproduct of Brexit is that employers can’t exploit the market as easily by underpaying staff. The solution wasn’t to leave Europe and it’s not the only thing it’s going to impact, both for positive and for negative. Either way, nobody thinks that there would be zero upside. That includes for some British workers who were being undercut. The issue comes when you balance everything else. 

 

The issues will certainly come when things get balanced out and I agree it'll probably be more negative but how much downside will be because of Brexit or the ideology and lack of competence of our own government? 

[Gnasher]

6 hours ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Whilst I agree it would be wider, I’m not sure what that’s proof of? The margin of victory for the Tories was wider in 2019 than 2017. That’s not proof to me that Johnson was better than Corbyn. It’s proof that a powerful media influences an ignorant populace. 

 

I should have made my point clearer. I believe more people who were opposed are starting to except us leaving. The fear factor is subsiding and fear is always going to be big physiological barrier against major change and leaving the EU was undoubtedly a major change. 

 

Coincidently people like Ed Milliband are now waxing lyrical about brexit, yes I know he's putting his political hat on but he's obviously smart enough to smell the coffee and gauge the mood. Quite simple it's now a case of having to adapt. 

 

As for your last point about a powerful media, bar from the usual suspects I thought the media gave both the remain and leave cases a fair hearing tbh. As for the main protagonists the campaign defended into load of nonsense because it was a binary question to a complex issue. The remain side did have the government machine behind it. If you're taking now I find bar for odd instances the media has pretty much gone past brexit, although that may be because of the focus on Covid.

[Gnasher]

7 hours ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

Ask a builder about economics? Great idea. I'll ask an economist to sort out the wall in our front garden while I'm at it.

Hmm a little patronising there arn't we?  I was thinking more in a general sense rather than specifically economic Angry  but hey hoy. Almost three million people in the construction industry Angry, they're not all hod carriers and tarmac gangs, its no longer boys from the black stuff, it's not just hard hats and steel toe capped boots. A lot goes on behind the scenes which coincidently include employees who watch and follow the economic tides. 

 

Back to my original point, bar from the very top brass I think most of the workers in the building industry would qualify brexit as a success thus far but its very early days.  Ask a few.

 

Next time you're out knocking on doors campaigning for the Labour party try  telling an engineer you're going to solve the problems of lack of Labour and increased wages in the building sector by importing thirty thousand engineers from places like Hugary then report back with your findings.

[Davelfc]

7 hours ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

And regarding things like wages for builders, nobody ever said that some things after Brexit would be better. A byproduct of Brexit is that employers can’t exploit the market as easily by underpaying staff. The solution wasn’t to leave Europe and it’s not the only thing it’s going to impact, both for positive and for negative. Either way, nobody thinks that there would be zero upside. That includes for some British workers who were being undercut. The issue comes when you balance everything else. 

Fucking hell, everything was doom and gloom, disaster and calamity predictions. Even the governments propaganda leaflet designed to inform the voter was 100% one sided. 

 

I'm not taking sides on the remain or leave argument, mainly because now it's over, done, dusted. But I like to hear both sides, rarely do these actions come only with negative consequences. If that was the case we should put Cameron on trial for allowing this. That the entire argument in the run up to the vote was negative, calling those with differing opinions racists, gammons etc, is not only a disgrace but led (I believe) to the leave vote winning.

 

A sensible, balanced approach with adults at the helm might have been able to put forward enough of a case to open minds, not close them. 

 

Take for example operation yellowhammer, quotes like fuck as 'going to happen' well you should thank your lucky stars that worst case scenario plans usually don't happen because I've read a few in my career that might have made some wet their pants.

 

Anyway.... rant over. But fucking hell I read nothing officially that balanced the argument.

 

Anyway, I'm off now to forage for food, avoid the war, and try to get some medications because you know, Brexit. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

Again, I don’t think you’ve read what I’ve written, just went into a rant. Lots of people said there would be fringe benefits. They just know that the balance is way in favour of the negative. 

[Bruce Spanner]

2 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Again, I don’t think you’ve read what I’ve written, just went into a rant. Lots of people said there would be fringe benefits. They just know that the balance is way in favour of the negative. 

Almost like paying £10 for a scratch card, winning a fiver on it and still feeling like a winner.

[Numero Veinticinco]

1 minute ago, Bruce Spanner said:

Almost like paying £10 for a scratch card, winning a fiver on it and still feeling like a winner.

‘No cunt was bragging that these won a fiver… biased twats’. 

[Gnasher]

14 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

Almost like paying £10 for a scratch card, winning a fiver on it and still feeling like a winner.

Bar for it being nothing like that at all.

[Bruce Spanner]

20 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

‘No cunt was bragging that these won a fiver… biased twats’. 

Yep, guess it’s a glass half full, or a kick in the teeth type scenario.

 

Of course they’ll be jobs after we kicked the nasty forrins out, but have we the foresight to future proof these skilled positions with a thorough apprenticeship system?

 

Did the projected rise to 6.1% in unemployment disappear, or has brexitania eliminated this? 

Have  the reductions in both goods and services exports, and the subsequent costs involved in these, gone away? 
 

Are the major financial institutions pulling out because the one thing we had going in negotiation was scuppered by the EU actually seeing it for what it is meaning no incentive to stay in Blighty? 
 

Are the government trying to remove the working time directive, human right legislation and workers right because they know something we don’t? 
 

Are the nonsense trade deals career incompetent Liz Truss agreed to in our benefit, or are they copy and paste jobs which are actually worse than the deals we had in place?

 

Are the problems that Frosty the tradesdealman is having the recognition that he didn’t have a fucking clue what was happening and we are now seeing the after effects of having grandstanding bellends try to force through a trade deal for political ends without reading the fine print? 
 

What happens when the grace period really ends? 
 

We are seeing, and will see, real term losses of predicted growth, as a member state, unemployment is set to rise, standards are being realigned and it sure as shit isn’t in the workers favour. Even ministers are saying it could be decades before we see the benefits. 
 

So no Brexit dividends, no sunlit uplands, all was a lie, as was the whole fucking charade.

 

I s’pose I’m just not patriotic enough and should just suck it up, even though all evidence points to this being a stupid, Ill thought out, grandstanding idea which will serve a few well, whilst the rest ‘suck it up’ and feel the consequences.

 

SovErinTy

 

[Gnasher]

10 hours ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

Ask a builder about economics? Great idea. I'll ask an economist to sort out the wall in our front garden while I'm at it.

 

I think the majority of the 3 million construction workers may have a better basic understanding of workforce supply and demand economics than you Angry. 

 

Here's a lib dem pro eu advisor writing in the spectator, approx half way down even he admits Brexit may have some benefits to low paid workers. 

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ed-miliband-s-brexit-embrace-isn-t-fooling-anyone

 

 

Millibands right by the way, the wars been won.

[Gnasher]

38 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Again, I don’t think you’ve read what I’ve written, just went into a rant. Lots of people said there would be fringe benefits. They just know that the balance is way in favour of the negative. 

Did lots of pro eu people say their would be fringe benefits though? You might have but from my recollection the remain voters, especially those on here were fairly certain Brexit would be an unmitigated disaster. I certainly can't remember the likes of Angry/Spanner etc saying leaving would have upsides. 

[Bjornebye]

16 hours ago, Colonel Kurtz said:

I was a remainer but have to concede that the dire predictions of an economic meltdown post Brexit were wrong. The £ has strengthened, the economy seeks to be about to be entering a boom period and imports/exports to the EU seem to be mostly working. I think a few more people on my side of the debate should acknowledge that it hasn’t been anywhere near as bad as predicted. 

You are starting to really come across as a bad tory queg. We’ve just had an unprecedented pandemic and Brexit had barely even kicked in yet. 

[No2]

10 hours ago, thechap said:

 

I think Boris ballsed up the Withdrawal Agreement by setting up a notional border in the Irish Sea. That seemed weak to me although it seems they *may* be making efforts to undo that. 

Really interested to hear more about this, if it seems they may have a solution to an unsolvable problem then I'm all ears. The floor is yours chap.

[Pidge]

11 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

You are starting to really come across as a bad tory queg. We’ve just had an unprecedented pandemic and Brexit had barely even kicked in yet. 

It's like y2k, all the millions of people working harder, experiencing additional pressure and stress, working longer hours for no additional recompense, despite not even wanting this situation. Their hard work will be used for the ignorant twats to turn around and say "what were you worried about?"

[Numero Veinticinco]

43 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

You are starting to really come across as a bad tory queg. 

That's because he clearly is a bad Tory queg. 

[Gnasher]

14 hours ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

That link hasn’t proven correct.  

 

The facts as they stand are:-

1. There are currently restrictions on international travel.

2. Industries which rely on migrant labour are suffering a labour shortage. 

3. Because house prices are increasing (to the detriment of people who, y'know, want somewhere to live) there's a bit of a  (short-term?) boost to construction, wages in that one sector are also seeing a (similarly short-term?) increase in wages.

4. There is no evidence of the degree to which that situation is attributable to Brexit or any reason to think it's permanent. 

5. It is really not a fallacy to state that workers in the EU are better off. They have more rights and protections. This applies doubly so to EU migrant workers.  That's self-evident, because, y'know, facts.

 

Er hello, 

 

https://www.fenews.co.uk/press-releases/79-sp-821/62662-jobs-boost-for-brits-in-construction-sector-brexit-bounce-back

 

https://nationaltradesmen.co.uk/2021/04/19/all-construction-workers-see-rise-in-wages-in-march-2021/