Scottish Independence, yay or nay?

[Paisley Red]

They will scream yes but when that curtain shuts they will tick no.

Some will do that. On the other hand some will have settled on voting No then get into the booth and respond to the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" with "Aye, it should be. Fuck it, I'm voting Yes".

[mattyq]

They'd certainly need to up their game.  Salmond isn't the man to lead a country, so they'd have to remove him and his rubbery smug visage from the political stage asap.

 

I'd love to see it though.

Salmond would be leading the negotiating team if they did vote yes and in power until 2016 at least so they'd be stuck with him for the time being.

Interesting if Labour were elected in the Uk and Scotland as you'd have the same Unionist party negotiating splitting up from each other which highlights the weirdness of the situation

Interesting also to see what happens to public opinion as the negotiations and economy don't work according to Salmond's dictates

May you live in interesting times is that famous Chinese curse...it will be very interesting 

[Paisley Red]

Another good article here by George Monbiot - "Scots voting No would be an astonishing act of self-harm".

 

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland

[Sugar Ape]

That article by Monbiot is full of hyperbole, in my opinion. The vote looks too close to call at the minute, it'll be close either way. I'm sick of reading articles which basically just amount to ' vote yes, get rid of the Tories '. After the next election - which I don't think the Tories have got a chance of winning - it'll be nearly 30 years since the UK voted in a Tory majority. The bigger problem is capitalism and the rich fucking your average person over, which will still exist in Scotland, as it does in every major country in the west. Articles like the one above and ones I've been reading recently on yes voters intimidating no voters and vice versa are ignoring the bigger picture. If we're looking at recent Guardian articles then this is the most relevant one I've seen:

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/02/indepdent-scotland-not-join-eu-without-central-bank

 

Independent Scotland could not join EU without central bank, expert says

Former European commissioner for monetary union says plan to use pound without formal currency deal is 'simply not possible'

 

The former EU commissioner for monetary union said it would not be possible for an independent Scotland to join the EU if it used the pound without a formal currency deal or its own central bank.

 

Olli Rehn, who stood down in July as the European commissioner for monetary union and the euro, wrote to Danny Alexander, the chief secretary of the Treasury, this week to say having a central bank was an essential requirement of EU membership.

 

Now an MEP, Rehn said in a letter published on Tuesday night that Alex Salmond's apparent plan to use the pound without the formal permission of London – a policy known as "sterlingisation" – would "simply not be possible".

 

The intervention came as the pound fell to a five-month low against the US dollar and also weakened against the euro, hours after a YouGov poll showed for the first time that the yes campaign needed only a three-point swing to win the independence referendum.

 

With the vote due in just over two weeks, it showed support for independence at 47%.

 

Rehn said the currency issue arose because "that would obviously imply a situation where the candidate country concerned would not have a monetary authority of its own and thus no necessary instruments of the EMU" [economic and monetary union].

 

He wrote that a core part of any new membership negotiation was for the applicant to commit themselves to EMU, and that implied the "will and expected capacity" to meet the tests for joining the euro – a policy Salmond has repeatedly rejected.

 

Senior figures in the no campaign conceded the poll had accurately picked up a surge in support for independence. They denied they were rattled by the result, which showed an eight-point fall in the no vote in four weeks, but admitted they were now urgently studying its findings and reviewing their strategy.

 

"There's a fight to be had," said one senior figure in the pro-UK group Better Together, as sources in Labour and Downing Street predicted their attacks on the yes campaign's economic and spending plans would now be stepped up.

 

"We would be fools to say something hasn't shifted. We don't think it's as big as YouGov suggests but the challenge for us [is to] look at the poll and what it is telling us."

 

Salmond, speaking as he launched a plan to boost Scotland's food and drinks exports by £4.5bn after independence at a whisky distillery in St Andrews, said: "I have always thought we would win.

 

"The polls are obviously very encouraging. But I am much more encouraged by the reaction on the streets. Dundee yesterday was extraordinary – it was a carnival atmosphere with certainly hundreds of people in the city centre.

 

The hit on the pound, which fell in value after the poll by 0.7% against the dollar to $1.6492 – its lowest rate since March and 0.6% against the euro, is now likely to feature in the no campaign's responses.

 

Currency brokers warned that the pound was likely to come under further pressure as the referendum on 18 September drew nearer, leaving the Treasury braced for further falls.

 

Analysts believed there was only a small chance of a yes victory but the poll upset currency markets, raising the cost of betting against sharp swings in the pound's level on the markets. Investors began to insure themselves against the impact of a yes vote and one measure of hedging costs notched up its biggest one-day rise for three years. Kit Juckes, a currency analyst at Société Générale, said a yes vote would raise a range of issues, but lead to significant impacts on sterling.

 

"A Scottish yes to independence poses far more questions – about the currency, the debt, the oil, the future – than it answers but my best guess is that a yes would trigger a 3-5% fall by sterling as an initial reaction," he said.

 

The recent strength of the pound has dented British exports but ministers will be anxious about any currency movements that show a lack of confidence in the future of the currency.

 

Alexander said Rehn's views were a fatal blow to repeated suggestions by Salmond that an independent Scotland could use the pound freely if the UK government refused to set up a formal sterling zone.

 

Alexander said sterlingisation "is not only a bonkers idea, which flies in the face of any reasonable notion of what independence means and which would impose costs and risks on people and businesses in Scotland, it is also incompatible with Scotland's smooth re-entry into the EU".

The spike in yes support in the YouGov poll published by the Times and the Sun came only a few days after Salmond scored a convincing victory in his final televised debate against Better Together campaign leader Alistair Darling on BBC last week.

 

With yes campaigners buoyed by his assertive performance, YouGov found that 30% of Labour voters were now planning to vote yes, after a week of successful attacks on the UK government's record on the NHS launched by the Scottish government and the official pro-independence campaign Yes Scotland.

 

No campaigners said they thought up to 25% of Labour voters were now backing independence as opinions on both sides hardened; they admitted that put Labour, which commanded more than 1m votes in the 2010 general election, under intense pressure to step up its own party campaign.

 

One Labour source said the party would now focus far more heavily on Salmond's threat to renege on Scotland's share of UK debts if the sterling zone proposal was vetoed, and the threat of a £6bn spending deficit in 2016 identified by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The yes campaign "has managed to just sweep that aside," he said.

 

Meanwhile it emerged that Lloyds Banking Group has finalised its contigency plans to move its registered office from Edinburgh to London in the event of a yes vote, Reuters has reported, with its Bank of Scotland subsidiary operating from Edinburgh as a foreign division of the business.

 

Lloyds, which is still 40% owned by the UK government and has its operational headquarters in London, had previously warned that independence would impacts on its costs, its regulatory affairs and its tax payments.

 

Vince Cable, the UK business secretary, has previously warned that Lloyds would face a decision to move its registered office - its legal head office to the City, if Scotland and the UK had separate regulatory systems.

 

This is largely because so many of its customers are in the rest of the UK, but if Scotland failed to persuade the UK to agree a formal sterling zone and had to use the pound informally, large sections of the Scottish financial sector are expected to move out of Scotland.

 

Lloyds has now told Reuters news agency that "the scale of potential change is currently unclear, but we have contingency plans in place. "In the event of a 'yes' vote in the referendum, there would be no immediate changes or issues which could affect our business or our customers.

 

"There will be a period between the referendum and the implementation of separation, should a 'yes' vote be successful, that we believe is sufficient to take any actions that we believe necessary," Lloyds said.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

I'm neither strongly for Independence nor against it, I can't really see why any Englishman would be. It hasn't really got much to do with us. I love the Scots, I know that much, so I'd say I'm marginally against it; we need less bullshit borders, not more. However, if they did vote to leave it's not going to impact my life all that much. I can't see why Scots would want it, because I don't think it'll do them all that many favours, even if I do sympathise with the 'don't want to be ruled by English Tories' line. Personally, if they did want to break from the union, I'd want to treat them as a competitor for trade and industry, I'd want us to fight for absolutely everything in the divorce. Why wouldn't we? I don't really have any passionate view, though. I echo the eminent philosopher, Al Green, when he say 'let's stay together', but it's only because I like the Scots. If I had to make a guess at which way it would go, I'd say a marginal no vote, but it's likely quite tight so anything could upset that balance.

[Sugar Ape]

I'm neither strongly for Independence nor against it, I can't really see why any Englishman would be. It hasn't really got much to do with us. I love the Scots, I know that much, so I'd say I'm marginally against it; we need less bullshit borders, not more. However, if they did vote to leave it's not going to impact my life all that much. I can't see why Scots would want it, because I don't think it'll do them all that many favours, even if I do sympathise with the 'don't want to be ruled by English Tories' line. Personally, if they did want to break from the union, I'd want to treat them as a competitor for trade and industry, I'd want us to fight for absolutely everything in the divorce. Why wouldn't we? I don't really have any passionate view, though. I echo the eminent philosopher, Al Green, when he say 'let's stay together', but it's only because I like the Scots. If I had to make a guess at which way it would go, I'd say a marginal no vote, but it's likely quite tight so anything could upset that balance.

 

I think there's enough reason to show an interest as it could negatively effect both the Scot and rest of the UK economy, but ulitmately, as you say, it's up for the people currently living in Scotland ( not just Scots ) to decide.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

I think there's enough reason to show an interest as it could negatively effect both the Scot and rest of the UK economy, but ulitmately, as you say, it's up for the people currently living in Scotland ( not just Scots ) to decide.

 

I'd imagine there'll be a temporary economic impact but I'd imagine the rest of the UK, especially England, will end up pinching a lot of the trade that currently happens in Scotland. 

[Sugar Ape]

I'd imagine there'll be a temporary economic impact but I'd imagine the rest of the UK, especially England, will end up pinching a lot of the trade that currently happens in Scotland. 

 

Long or even medium term I don't think it'll be a problem for the rest of the UK. For Scotland though? If the big financial institutions move South as I think they would and they use a currency that is geared toward the economic interest of another country then they will struggle imo. Interest rates and inflation could go up, taxes will be raised, I'm not being hyperbolic either, I think this is a genuine possibilty and having no central bank could impact pensions as well.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

Long or even medium term I don't think it'll be a problem for the rest of the UK. For Scotland though? If the big financial institutions move South as I think they would and they use a currency that is geared toward the economic interest of another country then they will struggle imo. Interest rates and inflation could go up, taxes will be raised, I'm not being hyperbolic either, I think this is a genuine possibilty and having no central bank could impact pensions as well.

 

Oh aye, Scotland won't benefit in the long term. I'd just invade the cunts and call it England. Take the oil, then annex it. Like on Civ 5.

 

You're right, I reckon; they'll not benefit financially from it. Seems the dream of one talented politician/salesman. He is selling it well. 

[Sugar Ape]

Oh aye, Scotland won't benefit in the long term. I'd just invade the cunts and call it England. Take the oil, then annex it. Like on Civ 5.

 

You're right, I reckon; they'll not benefit financially from it. Seems the dream of one talented politician/salesman. He is selling it well. 

 

I'm way ahead of you, bro.

 

http://www.liverpoolway.co.uk/index.php?/topic/96429-if-you-were-going-to-reassert-the-british-empire/

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

I had a good plan for world domination in that thread.

[Section_31]

The EU stuff is all shady bollocks. They've been hoovering up eastern european countries like Napoleon on steds yet now they're suddenly playing hard to get with a potentially new first world nation that would have its own natural resources and industries.

 

It's all simply down to the fact they don't want other countries breaking up. Bigger is best, more central is best, is what they seem to think.

[Sugar Ape]

The EU stuff is all shady bollocks. They've been hoovering up eastern european countries like Napoleon on steds yet now they're suddenly playing hard to get with a potentially new first world nation that would have its own natural resources and industries.

 

It's all simply down to the fact they don't want other countries breaking up. Bigger is best, more central is best, is what they seem to think.

 

It's down to the face you cannot join the EU unless you have your own currency and central bank. That applies to any new member state. They can also be vetoed by any existing member and with Spain, Italy and Belgium all facing their own problems with parts of their countires wanting independance then I suspect they won't allow it. It's not going to happen any time soon imo.

[Section_31]

It's down to the face you cannot join the EU unless you have your own currency and central bank. That applies to any new member state. They can also be vetoed by any existing member and with Spain, Italy and Belgium all facing their own problems with parts of their countires wanting independance then I suspect they won't allow it. It's not going to happen any time soon imo.

I think soon we'll see the first stirings of a break away European entity. There are a lot of powerful countries now that seem like they're on the outside looking in and possibly feel like they're being dragged down by southern Europe. Such countries would want their independence but would also see the appeal of strong ties with other powerful countries, especially in light of China's economic might and Russian aggression.

[Sugar Ape]

I think soon we'll see the first stirings of a break away European entity. There are a lot of powerful countries now that seem like they're on the outside looking in and possibly feel like they're being dragged down by southern Europe. Such countries would want their independence but would also see the appeal of strong ties with other powerful countries, especially in light of China's economic might and Russian aggression.

 

Could very well be, the threat of Russia will be used by the EU to push for closer ties I reckon. Either way, in relation to Scotland if they leave I don't think using either the pound without a currency union with the rest of the UK or the Euro are great options.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

If they do vote yes then they'll need bailing out at some time along the line, a bit like their great plans which resulted in the Darien disaster. 

[xerxes]

The EU stuff is all shady bollocks. They've been hoovering up eastern European countries like Napoleon on steds yet now they're suddenly playing hard to get with a potentially new first world nation that would have its own natural resources and industries.

 

It's all simply down to the fact they don't want other countries breaking up...

 

I think soon we'll see the first stirings of a break away European entity. There are a lot of powerful countries now that seem like they're on the outside looking in and possibly feel like they're being dragged down by southern Europe. Such countries would want their independence but would also see the appeal of strong ties with other powerful countries, especially in light of China's economic might and Russian aggression.

I agree that the chances of early admission to the EU of an independent Scotland are nil, Spain won't allow it.

 

I don't think that a break away European entity is upon us though. England is by far the most euro-sceptic country, Denmark isn't far behind, but that is about it. Trouble on the eastern border with Ukraine and the south eastern border with Turkey/Iraq is hardly likely to encourage countries to leave the EU either.

 

After the Scots Independence vote will probably come an EU referendum which I think, in the final analysis, will be won by the pro rather than anti vote.

[Nunavut Patrick]

Adopt the Norwegian Krone, form an North Sea Oil Alliance, invade Sweden, conquer Iceland and use volcanic geothermal energy for world domination when the oil runs out.

 

Seize the nukes, sail the Tridents out of Forth of Fife or Firth Foth, pop up on the Channel pointing at Brussels and tell the EU not to fuck with Jock.

[Jairzinho]

Replace South Africa in BRICS.

[Section_31]

Would be class if Salmond had super powers like General Zod.

[Bobby Hundreds]

Increase the price of shortbread and whisky and get christopher Nolan to make a supergran film. That will wipe any future debts.

[Paisley Red]

More bad news on the volatile and ever diminishing oil front:

 

http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/1039/scottish-west-coast-untapped-oil-and-gas-reserves-worth-trillions/

[Anny Road]

The yes vote is defo on an upward slope, you can feel it.

Someone said to me today the worst that can happen is we become Wales.

Wales have very limited resources and it did get me thinking about how wealthy we could be with a tiny population and Scotland's huge natural portential but then I thought I'd probably end up in Swansea fighting with my mate Barry.

[Anubis]

Would be class if Salmond had super powers like General Zod.

 

In truth, even if he did you'd be too busy laughing in derision to kneel before him.

[xerxes]

More bad news on the volatile and ever diminishing oil front:

 

http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/1039/scottish-west-coast-untapped-oil-and-gas-reserves-worth-trillions/

Shetland independence next.