Scottish Independence, yay or nay?

[Sugar Ape]

Edited my post, mate.

 

To be honest the currency issue is the one I'm a bit unsure of.

I wasn't sure if you meant the Egyptian pound or something!

[xerxes]

"Scotland has lost £307billion since 1980 through 'pooling and sharing' its resources with the UK."

 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-mccrone-legacy/#more-60308

As preposterous a piece of accounting as I have ever seen.

 

Even if you accept the figures, the cost of independence, the crash and RBS would run a coach and horses through those figures. As usual, all of the good things, and nothing of reality.

 

Make no mistake, if the Scots want independence, let them have it, but the independence lite fantasy sold by the yes campaign is doing the No campaigns' job for them.

[Mook]

As preposterous a piece of accounting as I have ever seen.

 

Even if you accept the figures, the cost of independence, the crash and RBS would run a coach and horses through those figures. As usual, all of the good things, and nothing of reality.

 

Make no mistake, if the Scots want independence, let them have it, but the independence lite fantasy sold by the yes campaign is doing the No campaigns' job for them.

Wings over Scotland has nothing to do with the Yes campaign.

[Paisley Red]

Hadn't seen that interview before; the Wings guy is evidently a fucking arsehole. However he didn't write the post I linked to which provides an interesting analysis of government figures and seems to disprove the theory that Scotland is subsidised by England. If anyone has an alternative view of the same figures I'd be interested in hearing it.

[mgw100]

I'm similar to you Anny Road, in that I'm an Englishman living up in Scotland. I have done for 23 years. My current experience is different though. Practically all my mates are pro-independence. The over-riding reason isn't really a strong sense of Nationalism, any love for SNP or Salmond or any genuine anti-English sentiment. It's the opportunity for change, for a blank (ish) canvas.

 

Disaffection with Westminster party politics is rife, especially the Tory party, which, of course, Scotland does not endorse. There's a view that small victories of the devolved era, like free tuition fees and prescriptions, are examples of a society that cares more for education and health than other parts of the UK. So maybe it's time to a go on a different path. I appreciate the North feels the same and yes it's maybe unfair they can't make the same choice.

 

Personally, while I buy all that, I am concerned about the economics. Not really in the long term, Scotland has plenty enough going for it to prosper, it's the short to medium term affects of the disruption and uncertainty that worry me as a parent and a mortgage holder.

 

Those saying that a No vote is inevitable are wrong, there is a genuine swell of opinion here. You can see it in social media, in pubs, in workplaces, everywhere. It's going to be really close.

[KopOut]

There'll be no blank canvas if Scotland gets independance, for the simple reason that they'll still have the same old central banking bullshit with its fiat currency created at interest.

 

Meet the new Boss.

[mgw100]

Hence the "ish" mate. Of course, there will be constraints, but constitutionally and otherwise, there is an opportunity to go about things in a new way.

[Sugar Ape]

It's the hope that kills you. I think KopOut is closer to the truth than most people would like. Look at France under Hollande, a lot of people, me included, thought there was real hope under him. Reality is it's just the same old shit.

 

It's going to be a struggle in the short/medium term and I think either raised taxes or further austerity just to maintain the status quo, and long term - who knows. I've read a few times the financial sector brings in more money than oil for Scotland and using the pound without a currency union would see a lot of that business move South.

[mgw100]

Yes, there's definitely a possibility that hopes will be dashed and eventually the political will defaults back to current. I think the Hollande example is slightly different. Yes, a left leaning party, but under the old structures, elites, civil service, constitution etc. There was always less opportunity for real, substantive change.

 

Equally, I would actually welcome a scenario where Scotland just because the norm from a continental European point of view. Fiscally and politically, these countries are far more progressive than the UK.

 

Let's face it, our politics and priorities are fucking toxic - far worse than France or Germany.

[Sugar Ape]

It feels that way because we live here, but I don't think we're any worse than France to be honest, politically speaking. The Germans seem to have a fairer society, but again are far from perfect.

 

There is still going to be an elite in Scotland and the politicians will be the same self serving cunts that politicians all over the world are. Maybe I'm just too cynical but I feel the reality is going to be far different from what you're hoping for if Scotland becomes independant.

[mgw100]

There's lots of metrics that indicate that UK priorities are different to France. The gap between rich and poor, public spending as a proportion of GDP, average working weeks, industrial legislation are examples.

 

We are much closer to a US, greedy_bastard-fuck you society than we are to Europe and have been since Mrs T changed our political culture. The only thing that negates that is the historical NHS, welfare state structures that are being pulled apart.

 

Honestly, if all that happens is that we become 'normal' in terms of Europe, we've all won a watch.

[Sugar Ape]

I'd argue that racial problems are worse in France, their far right is far more established than Ukip over here. Their unemployment rate is bad as well. There is nothing to say that society in Scotland will move towards a European ' norm ', and I don't think it will to be honest.

 

Ultimately no one knows for sure what will happen if Scotland gets independance, but for the reasons I've stated over the last couple of pages I think there looks to be more pain than gain in store if it happens.

[mgw100]

Ultimately no one knows for sure what will happen if Scotland gets independance

I think most parties agree on this.

 

The Yes campaign is focussing on Hope, the No campaign is focussing on Fear.

 

The former may be naive, but it's also compelling. As I say, expect a close run thing.

[Sugar Ape]

I think most parties agree on this.

 

The Yes campaign is focussing on Hope, the No campaign is focussing on Fear.

 

The former may be naive, but it's also compelling. As I say, expect a close run thing.

 

Ignoring the polls, I've said all along, in fact I think I said it in this thread last year, follow the money. The bookies are offering about 9/2 for a yes vote and 1/8 for a no vote. Some people will make a killing if the vote is yes.

[mgw100]

that's a fair point mate, it's not how it feels up here, but bookies are rarely wrong, i grant you that

[Paisley Red]

Vast majority of bets placed in Scotland have been on Yes according to the bookies. Some massive bets have been placed on No in the London area; one guy has £600,000 on it. I think No will win with about 55% of the vote but from a betting point of view 11/2 for Yes is good value.

[aws]

If someone ran on a poll on here "which country would you most like to live in?" my bet would be that countries with populations of about10 million or less would top the list. It's not class, politics or wealth, it's size which is usually the most important determining factor for quality of life for human society. Small is Beautiful.

[mgw100]

If someone ran on a poll on here "which country would you most like to live in?" my bet would be that countries with populations of about10 million or less would top the list. It's not class, politics or wealth, it's size which is usually the most important determining factor for quality of life for human society. Small is Beautiful.

I agree with this

[Sugar Ape]

Don't know about that mate. Australia would probably be near the top. We're a shallow bunch of fuckers, somewhere with boss weather would probably be a factor!

[mattyq]

If someone ran on a poll on here "which country would you most like to live in?" my bet would be that countries with populations of about10 million or less would top the list. It's not class, politics or wealth, it's size which is usually the most important determining factor for quality of life for human society. Small is Beautiful.

Hmm, wouldn't fancy living in Israel or Syria or Bulgaria etc etc

Granted, there's a lot of cool small countries...lots of shit ones, too

It's not the size that's important...it's what you do with it

[aws]

Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Austria. New Zealand..... Obviously I'm talking about countries which are democratic and civilised so that probably includes an independent Scotland....

[aws]

Hmm, wouldn't fancy living in Israel or Syria or Bulgaria etc etc

Granted, there's a lot of cool small countries...lots of shit ones, too

It's not the size that's important...it's what you do with it

Obviously. - but it's the size which allows you to create the society you want.

 

Anyone fancy naming ten big countries which would be great to live in?

[mattyq]

Is that big by population or size?

Let's do a Countries i wouldn't mind living in with a population of over 30 mill

 

US

Canada

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

Uk

India

South Africa

Brazil

[aws]

Population. Let's say 20 m plus.

 

Canada and Australia maybe. Can't think of many others I'd think of emigrating to.

[Sugar Ape]

Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Austria. New Zealand..... Obviously I'm talking about countries which are democratic and civilised so that probably includes an independent Scotland....

 

Apart from New Zealand we are all free to move to the other countries you mention. Not many do though. These are the top ten destinations for people to emigrate to:

 

Top 10 destinations for UK expats*

Australia 1,062,000 (251,000)

USA 829,000 (140,000)

Spain 808,000 (104,000)

Canada 608,000 (157,000)

Ireland 289,000 (126,000

France 253,000 (57,000)

New Zealand 248,000 (54,000)

South Africa 219,000 (38,000)

Germany 97,000 (39,000)

UAE 65,000 (680)

 

*Table shows numbers of expats in each country, and in brackets the number of pensioners

 

If a lot of people wanted to move to Norway and Sweden etc... then they could. Most don't though.