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cestrianred
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The thing is; they'll probably be fine on the pitch in the short term. Their next "transfer window" will basically be getting Gallagher, Broja, Gilmour and Levi Colwill back. That's not bad. They might just be light at the back.

 

It's really just the financial aspect that might sink them, with sponsors leaving and stuff, and depending how long the sanctions last, but I don't know much about that.

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23 minutes ago, Scott_M said:

So, as much as we’re all laughing our cocks off at all this and we all hope the worst, does anybody actually have an informed opinion on what is likely to happen next?

Not informed but the more realistic outcome is they are sold before the end of the season and will only suffer the reduced capacity and loss of merchandising sales in the mean time.

 

The real threat is they're unlikely to get another Abramovich who'll pump money in endlessly without wanting anything back.

 

 

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How are they going to manage cash flow? Their incomings from broadcast, prize money, money owed from transfers sponsorships etc are apparently going to be received but will be frozen. They still need to pay out £3.5m a week in wages, £500k per home game in costs and whatever outstanding payments they have for players. And they can’t borrow money

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4 minutes ago, TD_LFC said:

Not informed but the more realistic outcome is they are sold before the end of the season and will only suffer the reduced capacity and loss of merchandising sales in the mean time.

 

The real threat is they're unlikely to get another Abramovich who'll pump money in endlessly without wanting anything back.

 

 

Most if the interested parties are from America so they may end up with someone like FSG who state that they will only spend what they earn or someone who puts debt on the club. 

 

They will have to lower their expectations on transfer fees and players wages.

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6 minutes ago, PestiRed said:

How are they going to manage cash flow? Their incomings from broadcast, prize money, money owed from transfers sponsorships etc are apparently going to be received but will be frozen. They still need to pay out £3.5m a week in wages, £500k per home game in costs and whatever outstanding payments they have for players. And they can’t borrow money

Last accounts the cash available from the club dropped from £37 to £17 million don't know where that is in the latest accounts (and that would still be a year behind).

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25 minutes ago, TD_LFC said:

Not informed but the more realistic outcome is they are sold before the end of the season and will only suffer the reduced capacity and loss of merchandising sales in the mean time.

 

The real threat is they're unlikely to get another Abramovich who'll pump money in endlessly without wanting anything back.

 

 

I think he was a one off. Spent about £1.5 billion of his own money on the club. Nobody else is going to do that. They’re fucked. 

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17 minutes ago, Captain Willard said:

They’re fucked. They could be in administration within a couple of months maybe less. 

That's what I think, £28 million a month for salaries plus numerous instalments for transfers payments. I assume they might extend the licence if Chelsea could raise the money externally but who from? Previously RA was topping them up an average of £80-90 million a season to cover the shortfall. Add to that a drop in income from matchday sales and revenue from sponsors.

 

£17 million in the bank.

 

He's was looking for £3 billion previously and importantly the £1.5 billion debt wasn't part of that.

 

They need a really quick sale. We'll find out how truly benevolent towards Chelsea he really is.

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My guess is they get bought out by someone a lot less rich than Abramovich. Someone with wealth in line with other Premier League owners who treat it like a profit-seeking business rather than a plaything. Glazers, Kronke, FSG, etc.

 

Whether they're able to continue being successful, or whether they drop to the status of a Villa, Leicester, Everton, etc., will depend on how well the people they get in to actually run the club will do.

 

In the short term there'll have to be a real realignment in their business model, which will probably mean top player sales, culling of the wage bill, etc. 

 

I don't think it's death to Chelsea by any means, but a weaker Chelsea is all but certain. 

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14 minutes ago, clangers said:

That's what I think, £28 million a month for salaries plus numerous instalments for transfers payments. I assume they might extend the licence if Chelsea could raise the money externally but who from? Previously RA was topping them up an average of £80-90 million a season to cover the shortfall. Add to that a drop in income from matchday sales and revenue from sponsors.

 

£17 million in the bank.

 

He's was looking for £3 billion previously and importantly the £1.5 billion debt wasn't part of that.

 

They need a really quick sale. We'll find out how truly benevolent towards Chelsea he really is.

I think they can’t sell until the sanction is lifted so probably months. Even if they go into administration, the economics of the business don’t work. They are £100m a year short. Need to massively cut the wage bill which means a fire sale of players and mid table beckoning. 

i remember going years ago with my brother and the away fans were singing “when the Russian goes to prison you’ll be fucked”. Seems very prescient now. 
 

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54 minutes ago, Colt Seavers said:

Do they still have to allocate tickets to away fans? I'm thinking they can't sell tickets but will they be forced to give the allocation away but not charge for the tickets?

Also would they be able to just let home fans into the stadium for free?

 

They cannot sell tickets to away fans, either directly or via the visiting clubs. Technically, they could give those home non season ticket holders and away fans free tickets for their home games. Im guessing that would piss off their STHs who have paid up front.

 

I reckon they'll just admit STHs for home games until the end of the season and hope a sale is sanctioned soon after.

50 minutes ago, Harry Squatter said:

Most if the interested parties are from America so they may end up with someone like FSG who state that they will only spend what they earn or someone who puts debt on the club. 

 

They will have to lower their expectations on transfer fees and players wages.

Agreed. Their days of being bankrolled by any owner are over. There was reports of a Saudi group being interested in buying them but you'd hope the PL would investigate that very closely so they are part of the same group who now own Newcastle.

 

It'll also put an end to signing loads of young lads on relatively huge wages and sending them out on loan. Dont they have 40 odd players loaned out around Europe?

2 minutes ago, Captain Willard said:

I think they can’t sell until the sanction is lifted so probably months. Even if they go into administration, the economics of the business don’t work. They are £100m a year short. Need to massively cut the wage bill which means a fire sale of players and mid table beckoning. 

The Government could sanction a sale provided no money goes to Abramovich, at least while the sanctions hold.

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