Romeo Lavia - another bullet dodged. Code thinks he's bang average too

[Razoray]

I just had a quick look at their squad and they have about 30 first team players. Only James, Chilwell, Gallagher, Broja, Hall, Hudson-Odoi and Chalobah would make any kind of book profit, if sold in the next 3 years. 

 

Even if they were all sold for e.g. £350m across those 3 years, they'll need to increase commercial revenue massively to be anywhere near FFP. All the while, not buying anyone. Maybe Boehly and his team are geniuses but from what I can see, it stinks and can't work 

[Barrington Womble]

28 minutes ago, aws said:

They’re mortgaging their future and gambling that things will work out for them . 

 

i think it is a bit of a calculated risk - but then this is actually what this is. It's a speculation for massive returns, which will outstrip what they could make with traditional methods (such as equities or derivatives). 

 

25 minutes ago, Manny said:

Yeah this window is a bit of a standalone one for them as they've offloaded players like Havertz and Kovacic, who had very little book value as they'd been around for a few years and don't have long left on original contracts, and Mount who they got a whopping fee for who was pure profit as a youth teamer. But those kinds of 'assets' are pretty rare for them - OK they've got some youth players they can sell (they got decent money for Loftus-Cheek and will likely do reasonably well with Hudson-Odoi and Chalobah etc.) but without >150 Chelsea appearances they won't represent the same kind of return as Mount did. And they won't get many more Havertz's because it'll be six years before this summer's crop of players are in a similar place on the balance sheet - as you say, trying to offload one flop next year for some kind of return will be next to impossible (legally anyway).

 

I just don't see where the (legal) money comes from to make them sustainable - commercial revenue takes ages, CL revenue is insufficient and subject to competition, and player trading - which they've been pretty good at in fairness - is of limited return for them now, ironically because of the same accounting tricks they've pulled to sign them in the first place.

 

the thing here, they might be onto something, we just don't know. or it might work for a period, like FSG's extract every penny in value did. these guys are smart at making money - they might not be doing the right thing for success on the pitch, but then is that the aim? if they triple their return in 7 years, then they won't be arsed if there's no trophies to go with it. 

[Megadrive Man]

5 minutes ago, Barrington Womble said:

 

i think it is a bit of a calculated risk - but then this is actually what this is. It's a speculation for massive returns, which will outstrip what they could make with traditional methods (such as equities or derivatives). 

 

 

the thing here, they might be onto something, we just don't know. or it might work for a period, like FSG's extract every penny in value did. these guys are smart at making money - they might not be doing the right thing for success on the pitch, but then is that the aim? if they triple their return in 7 years, then they won't be arsed if there's no trophies to go with it. 

 

Chelsea are throwing so much money around and signing that many players it's inevitable some will make it. They will start winning stuff sooner or later. 

 

I'm not one for a conspiracy theory but I've seen this theory mooted, 

 

Boehly(Clearlake Capital) hasn't actually paid anything for acquisition of Chelsea. They struck a deal with British government(who took the club from sanctioned Abramovich) to get it for free. Then invest an absolutely ridiculous sum of money in order to create a super club in London to compete with City, Newcastle, Liverpool and United(using the money he supposedly paid to acquire Chelsea, but he uses it by investing it in the club). Supposed £2.5b donation to Ukraine is suspicious(price of Chelsea). Arsenal and Tottenham aren't/weren't at that level in terms of finance/prestige.

 

Grow the club's value in 10-15 years close to £10b, sell it and return some percentage of the money to British government. Everyone's happy. British government gets a super club nextdoor in London(similar to PSG in Paris - basically a domestic state project), Boehly(Clearlake) turns a profit.

[CapeRed]

9 minutes ago, Razoray said:

I just had a quick look at their squad and they have about 30 first team players. Only James, Chilwell, Gallagher, Broja, Hall, Hudson-Odoi and Chalobah would make any kind of book profit, if sold in the next 3 years. 

 

Even if they were all sold for e.g. £350m across those 3 years, they'll need to increase commercial revenue massively to be anywhere near FFP. All the while, not buying anyone. Maybe Boehly and his team are geniuses but from what I can see, it stinks and can't work 

Read an article just after Pochettino joined them were he said 30 players is too big a squad and he wanted to thin it out. Wonder if super Todd has overruled him.

[dave u]

Well 30 is too many as you can only register 25 unless they're u21s

[SasaS]

Regardless of FFP,  has any clever and aggressive financial strategy ever worked? You either need a substantial fan base and a long-term structure or vanity / sports washing owners with deep pockets and long-term commitment. Even successful (or lucky) transfer strategies or creating a lot of good young players work for about five years (Southampton, Leicester, probably Brighton three years down the line). The rest end like Leeds, or Portsmouth etc.

[Megadrive Man]

5 minutes ago, dave u said:

Well 30 is too many as you can only register 25 unless they're u21s

 

Once the European transfer window is closed they will work out the 25 they want to keep and ship the rest out to Saudi Arabia.

[TheHowieLama]

13 minutes ago, Megadrive Man said:

 

Once the European transfer window is closed they will work out the 25 they want to keep and ship the rest out to Saudi Arabia.

 

Wait til loans start happening back and forth - that's when the real shenanigans begin.

[Jairzinho]

13 minutes ago, Megadrive Man said:

 

Once the European transfer window is closed they will work out the 25 they want to keep and ship the rest out to Saudi Arabia.

 

Looking at their squad now I think you can probably expect the following to leave for enormous money to Saudi Arabian sides that have absolutely nothing in any way to do with Chelsea -

 

Lukaku, Chalobah, Hudson-Odoi, Ziyech, and Cucurella,

[lifetime fan]

1 hour ago, Barrington Womble said:

 

i think it is a bit of a calculated risk - but then this is actually what this is. It's a speculation for massive returns, which will outstrip what they could make with traditional methods (such as equities or derivatives). 

 

 

the thing here, they might be onto something, we just don't know. or it might work for a period, like FSG's extract every penny in value did. these guys are smart at making money - they might not be doing the right thing for success on the pitch, but then is that the aim? if they triple their return in 7 years, then they won't be arsed if there's no trophies to go with it. 

I don’t know if it’s dodgy bookkeeping, not giving a shit about a potential fine/points deduction or offloading players to Saudi Arabia, but I’ve been constantly told they’re still spending this window. 

[Carra_is_legend]

2 hours ago, Megadrive Man said:

 

Once the European transfer window is closed they will work out the 25 they want to keep and ship the rest out to Saudi Arabia.

 

Yup. Saudi have definitely changed the landscape in that sense, especially with their transfer window ending after ours. 

Chelsea are dodgy cunts with Saudi links already, they can easily shift 3/4 players for £150m+ after our window shuts. 

[Anubis]

3 hours ago, CapeRed said:

Read an article just after Pochettino joined them were he said 30 players is too big a squad and he wanted to thin it out. Wonder if super Todd has overruled him.

 

I wonder how he'll deal with Boehly coming into the dressing room and addressing the team. Frank was a cowed little hamster, Poch is just a chubby hamster but he doesn't strike me as somebody who would brook interference in the dressing room.

[Barrington Womble]

5 hours ago, Megadrive Man said:

 

Chelsea are throwing so much money around and signing that many players it's inevitable some will make it. They will start winning stuff sooner or later. 

 

I'm not one for a conspiracy theory but I've seen this theory mooted, 

 

Boehly(Clearlake Capital) hasn't actually paid anything for acquisition of Chelsea. They struck a deal with British government(who took the club from sanctioned Abramovich) to get it for free. Then invest an absolutely ridiculous sum of money in order to create a super club in London to compete with City, Newcastle, Liverpool and United(using the money he supposedly paid to acquire Chelsea, but he uses it by investing it in the club). Supposed £2.5b donation to Ukraine is suspicious(price of Chelsea). Arsenal and Tottenham aren't/weren't at that level in terms of finance/prestige.

 

Grow the club's value in 10-15 years close to £10b, sell it and return some percentage of the money to British government. Everyone's happy. British government gets a super club nextdoor in London(similar to PSG in Paris - basically a domestic state project), Boehly(Clearlake) turns a profit.

I've seen that conspiracy theory before..it seems complete nonsense to me. Why would the British government be arsed about such a tiny amount of money? We give billions away daily to all kinds of cunts without taking a share in any of it.  Football isn't a big financial vehicle at that level. And if there's shenanigans, it'll be some cunt in government for his personal gain..which I also doubt. They just believe they see a cheat that nobody else sees imo. And to be fair, their behaviour reflects that. They're trying to shake things up. It's almost a shit or bust type of plan..

[BeefStroganoff]

Ive been laughing at the suggestions that he signed for Chelsea because we messed him about and made him feel like hes a secondary target. I mean thats how you would deal with such a scenario isnt it - by joining the team whose just bought the primary target in your position.

 

its simply about money and length of contract and the lad is just looking at securing his future regardless of his development or performance.

 

Its incredibly sad really.

[John102]

Jason Wilcox confirming we did have bid accepted, despite what some of local journos suggested.

[A_S]

What's no shirt sponsor + no European footy this season cost them?

[John102]

 

[TheDrowningMan]

1 hour ago, John102 said:

Jason Wilcox confirming we did have bid accepted, despite what some of local journos suggested.

Hahahaha. Our club is ridiculous.

[Manny]

19 minutes ago, John102 said:

 

Football is now so ridiculous we’ve got people who helped a club spend loads of money telling us how another club spending loads of money is sustainable and A Good Thing. 

[John102]

2 minutes ago, Manny said:

Football is now so ridiculous we’ve got people who helped a club spend loads of money telling us how another club spending loads of money is sustainable and A Good Thing. 

 

[lifetime fan]

They’re looking for a defender as well. 

[Barrington Womble]

7 minutes ago, lifetime fan said:

They’re looking for a defender as well. 

Just 125m if they move quickly. 

[Bobby Hundreds]

9 hours ago, John102 said:

 

If there strategy is to deliberately ignore FFP then the punishment should be huge in terms of a massive point deductions, each season they are in breach of it. In reality the Premier league is more likely to fuck FFP off because the vultures, the leeches and scum now own the sport. 

[No2]

Arsenal just done a really weird deal with Brentford for David Raya. It has a huge whiff of 2 PL clubs screaming very loudly that FFP rules need to be complied with.

[clangers]

2 hours ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

If there strategy is to deliberately ignore FFP then the punishment should be huge in terms of a massive point deductions, each season they are in breach of it. In reality the Premier league is more likely to fuck FFP off because the vultures, the leeches and scum now own the sport. 

That's it unfortunately, their punishment won't be huge, hoover up all the available quality under 23's and accept the fine and transfer ban for 12 months. It won't hurt them, even a small points deduction won't bother them long term. It's highly unlikely the Premiership will start handing out 30 point deductions for breaches.