Russia v Ukraine

[SasaS]

Some humble pie for lunch at Amnesty.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/28/amnesty-international-leaked-review-ukraine-report-legally-questionable

[TheHowieLama]

The SS-750 Crane Ship sailing under the flag of the Russian Federation was spotted near the Nord Stream gas pipeline four days before the pipeline explosion on 26 September 2022.

 

The Russian ship is designed for underwater operations and has an AS-26 Priz mini-submarine on board.

 

Earlier, it was reported that the Danish Ministry of Defence had obtained 112 images of Russian vessels in the area. This is the first time the ministry has confirmed that the ship was an SS-750 with a mini-submarine on board.

The Danish Defence Ministry refuses to share the photos of the Russian special vessel, as these are "intelligence" images and are involved in "intelligence operations".

[Ne Moe Imya]

Imagine the conversations in the Russian FSB offices before they planned that move.

 

"Yevgeniy, I've got a brilliant idea!"
"Do share."
"We blow up our own pipeline, see? And then blame it on the West!"

"To what end, Igor?"

"Well, then maybe the Germans will suspect it was America or the Brits, and they will be upset that their prices for heating oil are going up as a result. And then they won't send Leopard tanks to help the Ukrainians!"

"Sounds like a foolproof plan! The only thing we need to remember to do is to tell the Ministry of Propaganda not to keep saying on national television that we plan to take over Poland, the Baltics, eastern Germany and nuke Berlin!"

[TheHowieLama]

Tom is asleep at the wheel.

 

Lotta stuff in the air.

[DJLJ]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-believes-russians-ukraine-have-suffered-100000-casualties-5-months-2023-05-01/

 

according to this, up to 100k mia/wia/kia Russians in and around Bakhmut. 

[SasaS]

37 minutes ago, DJLJ said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-believes-russians-ukraine-have-suffered-100000-casualties-5-months-2023-05-01/

 

according to this, up to 100k mia/wia/kia Russians in and around Bakhmut. 

 

Looking at my Mediazona Russian death count posts, they found about 10,000 names between December 3 and their last update April 7 (which they estimate is about 40 to 60 percent of the actual figure). Add about 2,000 for the rest of April and it looks like US intelligence is no better informed than this thread or open sources. (Same when they come up with equipment losses which are conspicuously similar to the  Oryx visually confirmed losses count).

 

Recently leaked documents figures were also in line with the above.

[DJLJ]

18 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Looking at my Mediazona Russian death count posts, they found about 10,000 names between December 3 and their last update April 7 (which they estimate is about 40 to 60 percent of the actual figure). Add about 2,000 for the rest of April and it looks like US intelligence is no better informed than this thread or open sources. (Same when they come up with equipment losses which are conspicuously similar to the  Oryx visually confirmed losses count).

 

Recently leaked documents figures were also in line with the above.

Somehow I doubt they are as badly informed as us. Just a hunch….

 

whether they deliberately decide to paint a better or worse picture, I guess is up for debate. 
 

but they are as badly informed as you or me, not having that. 

[SasaS]

Just now, DJLJ said:

Somehow I doubt they are as badly informed as us. Just a hunch….

 

whether they deliberately decide to paint a better or worse picture, I guess is up for debate. 
 

but they are as badly informed as you or me, not having that. 

 

Maybe on the other hand, we are just very well informed?

 

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

It is alot -- more than has been reported. That is simple logic.

 

This kerfuffle is also losing alot of it's box office appeal. 

 

[Section_31]

Yeah I'd suspect the US intelligence community is supremely well informed given that they basically told the whole world the Russians were going to invade weeks before, and that Russian top brass have a habit of being in the wrong place at the wrong time when a drone happens to be overhead. 

 

Think about it. Intelligence agencies turn assets with money and goodies, and Russia is one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Being CIA bureau chief in Moscow will be like trying to get a handjob in Bangkok.

[TheHowieLama]

23 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Being CIA bureau chief in Moscow will be like trying to get a handjob in Bangkok.

 

More like trying to give one -- not difficult.

[SasaS]

I am pretty sure that, despite everything, US intelligence is, like everybody else, only guessing about Ukrainian and Russian casualty numbers.

[TheHowieLama]

5 minutes ago, SasaS said:

I am pretty sure that, despite everything, US intelligence is, like everybody else, only guessing about Ukrainian and Russian casualty numbers.

 

Yea.

 

It is alot though - far more imo than what MZ suggests.

 

You seem to want to downplay the numbers each time, why? 

 

Is Tom still on the job?

[SasaS]

11 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

Yea.

 

It is alot though - far more imo than what MZ suggests.

 

You seem to want to downplay the numbers each time, why? 

 

Is Tom still on the job?

 

It is exactly the same as Mediazona - their numbers plus their estimate that their numbers are 40 to 60 percent of actual numbers. That was kind of my whole point.

 

I was "downplaying" the numbers in the first months of war because the people were coming up with ridiculous figures and those figures later stayed the same, pointing to the fact they were initially overblown.

 

Tom is on Substack now  - https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/

[Section_31]

[TheHowieLama]

This Wagner fella reminds me of Mike from Breaking Bad if he was Russian.

[SasaS]

Mediazona updated Russian casualties confirmed by name after a month (used to be every two weeks). They have collected 2,367 new names so the death toll is now 22,055. They have previously estimated that their number may be 40 to 60 percent of actual number of buried.

 

Previous update was over 1,600 for two weeks, so this is slightly down but still high.

 

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

[Fugitive]

I can’t help but laugh at Russia celebrating their role in WW2. They never seem to remember that little 2 year period at the start when they were invading countries and the massive amount of murder they committed.

[TheHowieLama]

The counter offensive is on lads.

[SasaS]

Pew pew.

[polymerpunkah]

59 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

The counter offensive is on lads.

 

Any streams?

 

[Bjornebye]

8 minutes ago, polymerpunkah said:

 

Any streams?

 

 

 

 

[SasaS]

9 minutes ago, polymerpunkah said:

 

Any streams?

 

 

Highlights are out already.

 

 

[SasaS]

Bump.

 

So, while things are slowly hotting up in general, Ukraine has improved its positions on the flanks north and south of Bakhmut, but is in the process of being pushed out of the remaining blocks it controls in the town. Strange.

[Fugitive]

I’ve interviewed and hired a few Ukrainian refugees over the past 6 months and some of the stories are heartbreaking. One woman we took on was in tears a few weeks ago as she has lost contact with her husband who is fighting over there. Still no word on him.

 

I also had the great pleasure of sacking some twat last week who was complaining about them living in hotels ‘rent free’. The cunt had apparently been slagging them off as they live in a hotel not far from us and don’t have to worry about ‘proper bills’ and how he is paying for them to ‘live a life of luxury’. We caught him speaking to one of our workers like shite and being aggressive. 
 

They are living in a fucking small room in a hotel with no family, no basic washing facility for clothes, no kitchen to make food and terrified about their loved ones.

 

I fucking hate Russia.