Coronavirus

[Josef Svejk]

15 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Prof Neil Ferguson all over the news this morning and a bit of a rift developing between him and Matt Hancock with Hancock saying "the scientists can say what they like".  Ferguson was critical of the government for having no exit strategy.  Bit of a blame game going on.  

 

Neil Ferguson is now urging the government to return to a containment strategy of test and trace, similar to South Korea.  Which is odd, because Ferguson was instrumental in shaping the government's strategy of going straight to mitigation.  

 

They're all hypocrites and liars.  They all need to fuck off.  A new cross party government should be formed as the current mob are dysfunctional and not fit for purpose.  

Academics playing politics. It rarely ends well.

[Josef Svejk]

4 minutes ago, Duff Man said:

The Reuters and Byline times articles both indicate that that was a key factor in "opening up the policy space" for tighter restrictions. But again, all evidence, including the analysis of the government's own behavioral scientists, suggests the public would have been receptive to an earlier lock-down, anyway, and when all this is said and done that period of inaction will most likely prove to have been fairly consequential.

But we got to see the horsies!

[TheHowieLama]

42 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

 

The mental health impact of this could arguably kill more than the virus IMO, its impact will be felt for years.

Or:

 

Security forces enforcing the lockdown in Nigeria to curb the spread of Covid-19 have killed more people so far than the virus itself, the country’s official human rights body reports.

[Anubis]

4 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Security forces enforcing the lockdown in Nigeria to curb the spread of Covid-19 have killed more people so far than the virus itself, the country’s official human rights body reports.

Which reminds me, it’s time to look in and see what the Indian police are up to.

 

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

Just now, Anubis said:

Which reminds me, it’s time to look in and see what the Indian police are up to.

 

 

 

 

Daily viewing -- toss up between these fellas and the Italian mayors each morning.

[RobbieOR]

Apparently it's got bad in Hungary where they're being ruled by decree. 

[JohnnyH]

53 minutes ago, Pistonbroke said:

Has anyone noticed that during the day you hardly ever see a plane in the skies yet late at night they magically appear? 

Cargo Ops are much more prevalent at night, with passenger ops mainly during the day. In many airports they share the same stands so once the passengers ops slows down in the evening, their aircraft are towed to remote stands, and the cargo aircraft are towed to the stands and the night time cargo ops start. Cargo ops are still operating almost 100%, and in many cases passenger aircraft are now been used as cargo aircraft for humanitarian flights. So what you’re basically seeing is Cargo ops operating virtually as normal, and passenger ops all but stopped 

[Moo]

1 hour ago, RobbieOR said:

 

The mental health downsides to these things are overlooked too. No work, no recreation, not seeing family, people will suffer. 

 

 

It's quite possible this vicious government is overlooking the metal health aspect so I won't argue that point, and I agree that people will suffer mentally due to the lockdown, work situation, family situations etc, I can speak from experience.  But surely just as many will suffer mentally if this virus is allowed to spread unfettered?  Countless more people would contract the disease potentially causing additional and new mental health issues,  everyone would see more family and friends suffering and dying at unthinkable levels, it would be quite unbearable.  

It's not an either or situation, both will happen so you have to ask which method lowers the overall suffering. 

[JohnnyH]

1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

 

The mental health impact of this could arguably kill more than the virus IMO, its impact will be felt for years.

That’s why it’s imperative that governments and people realise that once the emergency is behind us, in some ways the real work starts of supporting people getting back to some level of normality, be that I’m day to day, or with mental health support. The same with any major event, in many cases the real horror starts the months and years following. 

[Guest Pistonbroke]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyH said:

Cargo Ops are much more prevalent at night, with passenger ops mainly during the day. In many airports they share the same stands so once the passengers ops slows down in the evening, their aircraft are towed to remote stands, and the cargo aircraft are towed to the stands and the night time cargo ops start. Cargo ops are still operating almost 100%, and in many cases passenger aircraft are now been used as cargo aircraft for humanitarian flights. So what you’re basically seeing is Cargo ops operating virtually as normal, and passenger ops all but stopped 

 

Cheers Johnny. I said as much to my missus that it was probably mainly due to freight, although people are still being repatriated and I guess it causes a lot less hassle if they fly them back in of a night. Also, just because their flight path is over our area it doesn't mean they are landing in Germany. 

[RobbieOR]

37 minutes ago, Moo said:

It's quite possible this vicious government is overlooking the metal health aspect so I won't argue that point, and I agree that people will suffer mentally due to the lockdown, work situation, family situations etc, I can speak from experience.  But surely just as many will suffer mentally if this virus is allowed to spread unfettered?  Countless more people would contract the disease potentially causing additional and new mental health issues,  everyone would see more family and friends suffering and dying at unthinkable levels, it would be quite unbearable.  

It's not an either or situation, both will happen so you have to ask which method lowers the overall suffering. 

 

I'm not really calling for it to go unfettered though. Closing things to stop a spread was needed, it seems to be working but it was never long term and I think that not giving people any sort of indication was is next is a dangerous road to go down. As you said it's not either or but in the long term there needs to be a plan. 

[Anubis]

861 deaths and No 10 claims coronavirus crisis strengthens need for UK to be free of EU regulation after 2020. Ah, back to playing Brexit with a pandemic.

[Section_31]

1 minute ago, Anubis said:

861 deaths and No 10 claims coronavirus crisis strengthens need for UK to be free of EU regulation after 2020. Ah, back to playing Brexit with a pandemic.

Cummings back out of isolation and at the helm.

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, Anubis said:

861 deaths and No 10 claims coronavirus crisis strengthens need for UK to be free of EU regulation after 2020. Ah, back to playing Brexit with a pandemic.

"No 10 claims Covid-19 crisis strengthens need for UK to be free of EU regulation after 2020"

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/16/coronavirus-uk-live-news-covid-19-lockdown-extension?page=with:block-5e9848348f0895d83068f2f7#block-5e9848348f0895d83068f2f7

 

Why just have the one economic disaster?

[Rick Sanchez C-137]

2 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

Or:

 

Security forces enforcing the lockdown in Nigeria to curb the spread of Covid-19 have killed more people so far than the virus itself, the country’s official human rights body reports.

 

i giggled at first. That's so terrifying that my mind wanted to believe it was a joke. Holy fuck.

[SasaS]

2 minutes ago, Aw Geez said:

 

i giggled at first. That's so terrifying that my mind wanted to believe it was a joke. Holy fuck.

They fight jihadists the same way. Cure usually worse than the desease. 
 

[Mudface]

A cheery article.

 

No matter how you crunch the numbers, this pandemic is only just getting started
William Hanage
People are understandably looking for good news. But the truth is, we’re nowhere near controlling coronavirus


 ‘Half your population needs to have been infected to achieve a level of population immunity that would stop the epidemic continuing to grow and overwhelming healthcare systems.’ 
There has not been a lot of good news lately. But with the discharge of Boris Johnson from hospital on Sunday, and statements that the “peak” strain on the National Health Service would be over the Easter period, you might be under the impression that the storm is passing, and the Covid-19 pandemic will soon be a memory.

Fueling this mood are reports from studies of communities already hit by the pandemic. At long last we are beginning to see the results of work looking for signs that people have already been infected, through the presence of antibodies against Sars-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19. Some of this data suggests strongly that many infections may have passed unnoticed, with the only symptoms being mild things such as loss of the ability to smell and taste, and that as a result, more people may be immune than had been thought. Surely this is a sign that communities around the world can breathe a sigh of relief and start getting back to work?


Unfortunately, it is nothing of the kind.

Talk of the “peak” can be misleading, because it’s not clear whether you are talking about the Matterhorn or Table Mountain – both have a summit, but the peak is far more pronounced in one than the other. In countries such as Italy (unlike Wuhan) the initial surge in the Covid-19 pandemic has not evaporated quickly. There are multiple reasons for this but the most important is that the impact of physical distancing achieved in China has been hard to accomplish elsewhere, mostly because of the freedoms we correctly value in liberal democracies.

Worse, there may be a mountain range. In other words, what is happening right now could be just one peak – not the peak. And the reason for this is that despite all those positive signs from antibody testing, the huge majority of the population is not immune.

An editorial in the British Medical Journal has reported data from China suggesting that as many as four in five cases of Sars-CoV-2 infection could be asymptomatic. It then goes on to quote people from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine in Oxford, who say that if this is true “What the hell are we locking down for?” I wish those people would be brave enough to go and repeat that opinion in an ER in the Bronx right now, in which actual medicine is going on. Worrying about the exact rate of asymptomatic infection, or the currently unknown duration of immunity and a possible “second wave”, is like politely applauding the performance in a jazz club and murmuring “nice” while the building is demolished around you and the piano player gets decapitated.

There have been more than 93,000 cases of Covid-19 identified in the UK. Let’s round that up and say it is 100,000. So if the reports from the BMJ editorial are accurate, the actual number would be that multiplied by five, in which case there would have already been half a million infections in the UK. If this really is the peak and we see as many cases on the way down as on the way up, that would total 1 million infections from the initial surge in the UK – hopefully all of those people would then be immune.

That would leave about 65 million people in the UK still without immunity.

I am going to be unusually optimistic here, and assume that everyone who has Covid-19 becomes fully immune (not a given), and that the virus is towards the less transmissible end of the range of estimates currently available. If this is the case, you would need half your population to have been infected to achieve a level of population immunity that would stop the epidemic continuing to grow and overwhelming healthcare systems.

As I write the UK is reporting more than 10,000 deaths from Covid-19. Due to the realities of collecting data during an infectious disease emergency like this, that is likely to be an underestimate. Again, if we assume this is the peak and there is the same number on the way down that’s 20,000 total from the initial surge. And to get to population immunity you have to multiply that by at least 30: based on the current data, that’s about 600,000 deaths to get there, minimum.

Finding a vaccine to offer a complete solution to this pandemic is, even in the best scenarios, is still a long way off But it is not hard to see many ways we can slow the pace of the pandemic and save lives. One of them is greatly improved testing to identify cases and their contacts, which could be supplemented by clever digital methods to spot who has been at risk.

Governments around the world are attempting ways to keep jobs and businesses afloat while lockdowns are in place – but the pressure remains to swiftly end such shutdowns. I get that this is going to be a mammoth strain on the economy. But the deaths of many thousands of people would be too: it is simply not possible to thoroughly insulate an economy from the impact of a pandemic of this kind.

Where I live, in Cambridge Massachusetts, I keep hearing sirens. This crisis is not close to over, quite the reverse. The pandemic is only just getting started.

• Dr William Hanage is a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard

[cochyn]

23 hours ago, Elite said:

Maybe stop a few metres further than the bus stop and when people run to get to you, close the door and drive off as they get near.

Better still. pull up at the stop and read your copy of the Metro for 2 minutes before driving on.

[Section_31]

With regards that Guardian article, does anyone really think it's over? That's not what I've read or heard anywhere, it's clear we're still knee deep in the shit but it feels like we've bought ourselves the time and space needed to take stock and plan. 

 

Covid came flying out of the traps and (rightly or wrongly) nobody knew what the fuck was going on. They didn't have its genes mapped (apparently a Shanghai lab leaked it to the world because they suspected the Chinese government wouldn't grant access to 'rival' countries, and were themselves then promptly shut down). 

 

Nobody understood how it spread, what its death rate was, whether it was mutating. There are lots of studies now around the world gradually shedding light on that. We can also learn how other countries have managed it better and hopefully put pressure on our own government(s) to do the same. 

 

I think the way out of this is to have the Nightingale hospitals operate as a shadow NHS, where patients are taken and treated away from ordinary hospitals. We should intensify testing and tracing, keep large gatherings off the agenda until big improvements have been made in treatments but also ensure adequate supplies of PPE and ventilators/oxygen/CPAP masks if needed. 

 

There should be a dedicated team, or even part of the Department for Health set up specifically to track cases and report on when there needs to be tighter controls put in place so we don't breach ICU capacity. Then we should have phased reopening of smaller venues and services, but be ready to pull the plug quickly as and when needed. 

 

It's grim stuff, but societies have coped with diseases in the past. Smallpox, cholera, TB, polio, Scarlet fever. It's grim as fuck but it's nature and you can't bolt the doors forever waiting for Dustin Hoffman to ride to the rescue with a syringe. 

 

[Mudface]

2 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

With regards that Guardian article, does anyone really think it's over? That's not what I've read or heard anywhere, it's clear we're still knee deep in the shit but it feels like we've bought ourselves the time and space needed to take stock and plan. 

 

Covid came flying out of the traps and (rightly or wrongly) nobody knew what the fuck was going on. They didn't have its genes mapped (apparently a Shanghai lab leaked it to the world because they suspected the Chinese government wouldn't grant access to 'rival' countries, and were themselves then promptly shut down). 

 

Nobody understood how it spread, what its death rate was, whether it was mutating. There are lots of studies now around the world gradually shedding light on that. We can also learn how other countries have managed it better and hopefully put pressure on our own government(s) to do the same. 

 

I think the way out of this is to have the Nightingale hospitals operate as a shadow NHS, where patients are taken and treated away from ordinary hospitals. We should intensify testing and tracing, keep large gatherings off the agenda until big improvements have been made in treatments. 

 

There should be a dedicated team, or even part of the Department for Health set up specifically to track cased and report on when there needs to be tighter controls put in place so we don't breach ICU capacity. Then we should have phased reopening of smaller venues and services. 

 

It's grim stuff, but societies have coped with diseases in the past. Smallpox, cholera, TB, polio, Scarlet fever. It's grim as fuck but it's nature and you can't bolt the doors forever waiting for Dustin Hoffman to ride to the rescue with a syringe. 

 

Nobody sensible, no. I did get the impression in recent days though, especially with talk of reaching the peak and exit strategies, that people were starting to think that it would be a short, sharp shock, then back to normal. In reality, it's going to be a long grind, with occasional shocks along the way until an effective vaccine is available.

[TheHowieLama]

3 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

 does anyone really think it's over?

 

 

No - but I do think that governments all over the world will go to whatever lengths they have to to give that appearance, or at the very least that it is under control.

 

The analogy in the article @Mudface posted is one of the best I have heard. It maybe the first peak in a range of mountains.

 

More news out of South Korea that they are continuing to find considerable cases of either re-lapse or re-infection makes it difficult to imagine this is the peak.

[Pureblood]

Face masks: good enough for the police but not for ordinary plebs. 

 

https://www.ross-shirejournal.co.uk/news/police-to-get-face-masks-as-coronavirus-fight-stepped-up-196946/

 

Police officers and staff across Scotland will be given surgical face masks to wear as they respond to incidents or deal with the public where it is not possible to adhere to social distancing measures.

 

Police Scotland has secured initial stocks of type 2 fluid resistant surgical masks and is distributing them to its workforce in response to advice from Health Protection Scotland, Public Health England and the UK Government.

 

Officers and staff will be able to choose to use the type 2 masks in certain low risk situations where they are unable to maintain a two-metre distance from their colleagues or members of the public.

[Jennings]

I am trying not to overindulge in ChronoVirus related stuff, but one thing I learned from it this week is that Helen Whately is a fox.

[Anubis]

3 minutes ago, Jennings said:

I am trying not to overindulge in ChronoVirus related stuff, but one thing I learned from it this week is that Helen Whately is a fox.

[Anubis]

Unless you mean an actual fox.