General Election 2019

[aRdja]

Just now, Bjornebye said:

Has that taken them 3 and 3 quarters of a year to realise that? 

I knew People’s Vote/2nd Referendum was an awful horse to back.

[aRdja]

GBP responding well to the news.

 

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

4 hours ago, Rico1304 said:

She makes it onto telly supporting labour and JC.  Good at eye rolling and ignoring questions. Chuck in casual AS and shes got the lot. 

All of those points you've copied from an article by that racist Etonian neoliberal prick who wrote that anti-Islam "Death of Europe" shite.  The same article in which he snidely encourages people to try to get her the sack from her teaching job - the main motivation probably being that she was dismissive of his new book.

 

(I only know this because I'd never heard of her until you mentioned her and that was one of the first Google results.)

 

 

[aRdja]

2 minutes ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

that racist Etonian neoliberal prick who wrote that anti-Islam "Death of Europe" shite. 

Lolglas Murray?? Loool. Neo-con twat.

[Vincent Vega]

40 minutes ago, MegadriveMan said:

What are you doubting @Strontium Dog™

 

Does anyone know if it gives a seat by seat breakdown anywhere?

 

[Vincent Vega]

I don’t buy it, they’re basically saying that the only change of seats will be from Labour Brexit supporters to the Tories, and no Tory losses at all to Labour and the Lib Dems in London and other remain parts of the country. I also can’t see the Tories hanging on to 11 of their 12 Scottish seats.

[Megadrive Man]

So according to those results that fucking tit Lee Anderson with the fake door knock is going to win?

[Megadrive Man]

A lot of people on the Peston Facebook group are sceptical about it also.

[Brownie]

7 minutes ago, MegadriveMan said:

So according to those results that fucking tit Lee Anderson with the fake door knock is going to win?

It’s only a 1% majority so not very surprising.

 

Absolutely gutted to see that my seat is projected to go back to the Tories.

[Dr Arthur De Sabre]

4 hours ago, Rico1304 said:

She makes it onto telly supporting labour and JC.  Good at eye rolling and ignoring questions. Chuck in casual AS and shes got the lot. 

She doesn’t have aspergers, nor is she casually anti-Semitic, she does have issues with the illegal settlements however, you know as per the UN.

[Megadrive Man]

7 minutes ago, Brownie said:

It’s only a 1% majority so not very surprising.

 

Absolutely gutted to see that my seat is projected to go back to the Tories.

Which seat is yours mate?

 

Just looking at that Ashfield seat and it's a total clusterfuck of candidates!

 

Lee Anderson is ex Labour now standing for the Tories. The Brexit Party Candidate is the former editor of Loaded! There is an independent candidate that voted to leave, was charged with historic sex offences formerly a Lib dem, and the Labour candidate is known in the area for fighting with people!

[Brownie]

4 minutes ago, MegadriveMan said:

Which seat is yours mate?

 

Just looking at that Ashfield seat and it's a total clusterfuck of candidates!

 

Lee Anderson is ex Labour now standing for the Tories. The Brexit Party Candidate is the former editor of Loaded! There is an independent candidate that voted to leave, was charged with historic sex offences formerly a Lib dem, and the Labour candidate is known in the area for fighting with people!

My seat is Stockton South mate. Massive swing from Tories to Labour in the last election and the MP has been great since elected, done loads of stuff for the area, would be a real shame if he lost his seat.

[Red Phoenix]

Guardian has this on the YouGov poll :

 

Quote

However, for this analysis it has been polling people over the past week – when regular polling firms would aim for the last couple of days – and during an election campaign every day matters.

A week ago, neither party manifesto was out, the leaders’ debate had not happened – and the Labour antisemitism row had not surfaced.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/27/mrp-poll-conservatives-on-course-for-68-seat-majority

 

I don't think it's right at all. Looking forward to seeing more polls over the next few days, if there's more with Labour at 7% behind or less then it's almost definitely well out.

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

29 minutes ago, arthur friedenreich said:

She doesn’t have aspergers, nor is she casually anti-Semitic, she does have issues with the illegal settlements however, you know as per the UN.

I thought the reference to "casual AS" meant she did occasional freelance work for a Spanish football paper.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

I had a moment of shock today at levels of political illiteracy.  Two people I work with said they'd had the experience of being flummoxed in a General Election polling booth because they were expecting to see the names of the party leaders on the ballot paper.

 

This is what Labour volunteers are up against - one phone call and one doorstep at a time.

[moof]

 

here is the BBC eviscerating Boris Joh... oh, wait. No. It’s a video of him eating a scone. 
 

This is what you call holding power to account. Great job by the ever crusading Beeb journalists 

[Dr Arthur De Sabre]

21 minutes ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

I thought the reference to "casual AS" meant she did occasional freelance work for a Spanish football paper.

occasional left winger for Roma!

[Red Phoenix]

Most of a twitter thread here from an ex-Guardian editor (Tom Clark) :

 

Quote

Yes @YouGov did well last time with their model, but having just spent the evening with a whole bunch of pollsters and political scientists, the interest this one exercise is attracting worries me. As it happens, their projected headline number of Con seats is very close to what I put in the office sweep stake. So I certainly aren’t saying it’s wrong. Only that I don’t know, and neither do they.

 

As the fella who wrote the notorious Guardian front page on Election Day 2015 (headline: “it couldn’t be closer”!) I fear we’re still to absorb the real lessons of that trauma for the pollsters and pundits. Lesson 1 of 2015 is that it’s no use having more data if your data is biased. Back then, inspired by the cult of Nate Silver & his state-by-state stuff, we had loads of constituency polls and seat-by-seat projections that turned out to be tosh.

 

By then only oddballs were answering landlines for market research: our respondents weren’t typical. YG has lots of data. Maybe the people who opt in to answering online Qs aren’t so odd. But by definition you can’t correct for any unobserved ways in which they might be odd. Generally in polling just now there is heavy reliance being placed on “weighting” - @p_surridge told me earlier she’d seen some raw data recently that showed the two parties neck and neck.

Now relying on raw data is not a good idea. But there is an opposite risk in weighting and calibrating too much: you end up with your own assumptions, rather than your sample, driving many of your numbers.

 

 

This looks good for Labour too :

 

 

 

[Strontium]

3 hours ago, Vincent Vega said:

I don’t buy it, they’re basically saying that the only change of seats will be from Labour Brexit supporters to the Tories, and no Tory losses at all to Labour and the Lib Dems in London and other remain parts of the country. I also can’t see the Tories hanging on to 11 of their 12 Scottish seats.

 

I don't buy it either, I've seen some of the predictions and they don't ring true to me. Some of them are wildly at odds with constituency polling, but I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Denny Crane]

On page four comments on turnout below from that yougov. I noticed the data collection was conducted between the 19th of November and the 26th of November. So data collection began before any of the parties had released their manifestos, hmmm. 

 

[Denny Crane]

If these results were correct it shows Conservatives picking up lots of seats with a > 60% leave vote held by Labour.

 

 

[Denny Crane]

1 hour ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

I don't buy it either, I've seen some of the predictions and they don't ring true to me. Some of them are wildly at odds with constituency polling, but I guess we'll find out soon enough.

It seems to be suggesting you will win a few remain seats but lose a few seats with a bigger leave vote like Eastbourne. No wins for any of the defectors. Nearly double your vote but gain one seat. I reckon you will get a couple more seats though. One of your problems apart from being the Lib Dems - is your party is too far behind in many of the seats you want to win. 

[Red Phoenix]

WaPo tweeted some truth about Corbyn/Labour by mistake, they made sure to correct their error soon after though and removed it :

 

 

[Denny Crane]

 

Anyway since the election began Labour have gone from around 24% to 34% in polling with two weeks to go. 

[Bobby Hundreds]

It will be a Tory majority. I'm defeatist as fuck but because of brexit people who would never vote Tory now gladly will. Be nice if by some twist of fate Boris lost his seat though the lying toff twat.