Race for top four - are we in it?

[aws]

Piece of piss. We're going to qualify twice.

[Sputnik1]

While we win teams above us are dropping points. The game in hand skews the table a bit although we haven't got those points yet. Southampton sit on the same points as us and have played two games more than us. Same as Stoke who are a point behind us.

 

We have ten league games to go and if we progressed to the Uefa final add another 6 games there. While I would love us to gain a CL place I just can't see us actually doing that while involved in the Uefa cup. Not this year with this squad. 

 

I think we are all just used to seeing so much inconsistency, it's hard to be 'up' for much when a great game is usually followed by a poor one. 

[bonesman]

ssshh.

[mattyq]

We;ll finish 4th

[Bjornebye]

[Ted]

Nah

[lebron]

We'll need at least 70 points which seems highly unlikely

 

Doubt City will get to 70 on their current form. They are an Aguero injury away from collapsing, and every away game is a chance for the opposition to make them really uncomfortable. Not sure Arsenal will get to 70 either unless they get back some players. Their involvement in the CL/FA will destract them for at least another week too.

 

 

Yes in theory, no in reality.

 

Any team four points off with 9 to play is well in the mix mathematically, but we are not good enough to sustain the run and will crumble at some point. I knew we would have a little run at some point though once the heat was off, and we are seeing that now.

 

Sent from my C5303 using Tapatalk

 

Half of my argument is not our fantastic ability to put a running win together, but that the rest of the teams are (even) worse off. 6-7 wins out of 10 is fully possible with our current momentum/players returning from injury. We also run into more teams with "nothing to play for" than a few of the others (from what I can gather).

 

 

We have a sporting chance.

They are not impossible fixtures, given our current form and reduced injury list.

 

What are the odds on us pulling it off?

 

A 10 – 1 shot must be worth a punt.

 

As a great man so famously said: What’s with those negative waves Morriaty?

 

 

We're 5/1 at most companies, and have been dropping like a stone the last week (since the City league game). I got us at 7/2 to finish in the top 6 a couple of weeks back.

 

You never know. 4 points is nothing really if we win the game in hand. It would require a run the likes of which we haven't seen for some time. The teams above us are pretty shite really.

 

Yep.

 

We'll get close and we'll be presented with a chance - then our arses will go spectacularly and we'll shit all down our legs.

 

That has certainly been the case in the past. Hopefully we can draw on Klopp's mentality this time.

 

Exactly . People go through the fixture lists and try to predict how things can work out favourably but the maths are simple enough. 

 

I actually think 68 points might make it but even so that would mean us getting 24 from the last 10 games, Its just never going to happen plus we have to overtake 4 teams above us 

 

Europa is the only way we are getting into the CL next season

, 

 

I think it can be even lower, I tried to do the estimates in the original post as objectively as possible for the other teams, and still had City/Arse around that number. As several of the top teams are playing each other, I'm hopeful it can go as low as 66. 7 wins from the last 10 will have us very, very close, and while 8 out of 10 seems wildly optimistic, it can certainly be done. 

 

The teams left in the Europa are of a much better standard than what we're facing in our run-in except Spurs (who we normally beat at home) and Chelsea/Everton. The home/away format suits us nicely, but there's 8 games to go there....

 

While we win teams above us are dropping points. The game in hand skews the table a bit although we haven't got those points yet. Southampton sit on the same points as us and have played two games more than us. Same as Stoke who are a point behind us.

 

We have ten league games to go and if we progressed to the Uefa final add another 6 games there. While I would love us to gain a CL place I just can't see us actually doing that while involved in the Uefa cup. Not this year with this squad.

 

I think we are all just used to seeing so much inconsistency, it's hard to be 'up' for much when a great game is usually followed by a poor one. 

 

Make that 8... I actually think we've got enough in depth to keep it going now that (almost) everyone are back. It's quality not quantity that hurts us (esp in central midfield. As i made the exact same point in my original post, I hope I'm not coming across as too hypocritical, it's certainly not ideal in terms of chasing the top 4. I don't expect to see us rack up a number of great performances. I take some comfort in what seems to be a tighter ship though, as well as having more matchwinners (and dare I say a bit of mental strength) coming back/developing.

[KMD7]

No chance, sadly

[lebron]

We'll be favourites at the bookies for all of our remaining games (I think). Without knowing the intervals between games and assuming we put out our strongest team for the league, I'd say this can be done. Can't see us collapsing (like against Watford) again, but there might well be a couple of low-/nonscoring draws. I fear the first two fixtures in that respect the most tbh. Two very hard-working sides with good structure and tactical disipline.

 

Southampton (a)         1 pt      Good team, probably our toughest away game.

Spurs (h)                     1 pt        They will have everything to play for, very hard to break down

Stoke (h)                     3 pts      Think we'll swarm them and beat them well.

Bournemouth (a)         3 pts     Underrated side. Not a guaranteed win.

Newcastle (h)              3 pts     Even with Rafa in charge we'll have too much for them.

Swansea (a)                3 pts     They're not very good! Our easiest away game

Watford (h)                  3 pts     Much easier to play them at home than on their potato field!

WBA (a)                      3 pts     They'll raise their game. Think Bmth is  a harder game though.

Everton (h)                  1 pts     They might have an eye on Wembley by the time we play them.

Chelsea (h)                 1 pt       We might not win against both Everton and Chelsea..

 

That's 22 pts. We won't go unbeaten I guess, but I don't think we'll fail to win all the 1-pointers I've given either. 

 

I'm going to bed more optimistic than when I started typing! 

 

Just to clarify, I'd rather win the Europa than get top four, would be nice to accomplish both though!

[El Dangerous]

J'son of Cundy says no.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

For now, I'll say we're probably out of it.  But, if we win our next two league games, I might have another look at that table after the Shitville derby.

[G Richards]

I think we will need 69 points to do it. Arsenal and Man City have enough quality to pull their finger out when they need to, at least in the Premier League, in terms of finishing top four. 

 

They both have 9 games left, and if I give then five wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats each, then Arsenal finish on 69 points and Man City 68 points. They both have a better goal difference too (Arsenal by 10, Man City by 15). 

 

I think 69 points might see us pip Man City to fourth spot. We will need an excellent run to do it, probably requiring 25 points from 30. Eight wins, one draw, one loss? It's a very tall order. 

[Frankenhooker]

Normally I'd say no chance, but the lack of real quality above us means that a lot of points will be dropped, obviously we still have to do our part but it's not impossible. City are sinking like a stone and United look dire.

[magicrat]

J'son of Cundy says no.

For once in his miserable life he's bang on

Not a prayer unless you really believe we will get 2 and half points a game from the last 10 which is a point game more than we managed in the first 28, Fantasy 

[Saintslfc13]

The sheer amount of joy I picture myself having should we get top 4 at the expense of both the mancs makes me think it's too good to be true. That being said of course we're in it, and if we keep playing like we have we'll be in it up until the season is over, especially with that run in. Same goes for the EL as well. Dortmund look like they'd thrash us but other than that I'm not convinced anyone else is that much better. If we get them in the final then it's a final and anything can happen. Over two legs I've seen us beat better teams than this Dortmund side in the past so I've not got a reason to disbelieve.

 

Hopefully the squad have got all of their let downs out of the way this season and we can really push on from here into the summer. We saw last year under Rodgers they found a way to string an undefeated run together and given the improvement under Klopp for the vast majority of our squad I don't see why we can't now. Maybe just maybe they've finally realized that if the lot of them want to stay here they're going to have to show the manager they're worth keeping around with consistently good performances. I really only think Clyne,  Coutinho, and Firmino could think they're safe, maybe throw Lucas in there if he doesn't mind more a mentorship role (and probably a pay cut) or Klopp really fancies him as a CB.

[Pan77]

Zero chance.

[billypilgrimnz]

No.

[Herp McDerp]

Like fucking clockwork with you lot. Remember what happened back in December when we went from being shit to slightly less dogshit? Derp derp title challenge hurr durr. That's a no, by the way.

[Captain]

Herp knows.

[Ne Moe Imya]

Zero chance.

 

About 12%, actually, if you look at the expected goals charts.

 

So it's not likely, but stranger things have certainly happened.  The bookies have us at 6-1 to win the Europa League, which probably overvalues our chances a bit, so call it about even with our odds of top 4.  Probably about 12% chance we win the Europa League right now.

 

I'd say the odds of us playing in the Champion's League next season are probably between 20 and 25% at the moment, which is remarkable given where we were a couple of months ago.  It still probably won't happen but just the fact that we're in with a chance is pretty impressive progress.

[Biscao]

No.

[James Dean]

Naaah man.

[Torvald Utne]

[Grinch]

Far bigger chance of the Europa league at this point.

 

One foot in the Q/F, kind enough draw there and we could be three games away.

[easytoslip]

Can't see it , too many teams doing well but you never know if we can get some consistency we could go close. Resigned to the no vote to be honest.