Russia v Ukraine

[SasaS]

8 hours ago, Gnasher said:

Excellent analysis, it does seem a little strange to ban virtually all tv, media and opposition parties.

 

You're right about Mark Ames, he's an excellent journalist when it comes to American/Russian/Eastern European affairs.

 

Interestingly the EU has apparently reprimanded Zelensky for the move, maybe the first sign of cracks in the Ukrainian support?

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/5/ukraines-president-bans-pro-russian-networks-risking-support

I wasn't talking about the Ames guy but the fella who wrote the actual article and the other linked with it.

 

I understand the media ban, it's a war, there is only one narrative.

 

Parties, you either invite them to some national unity government or they temporarily suspend their opposition status in a war. Suspending them under martial law means either that they have been up to no good and the government doesn't trust them any more, or Zelensky is under pressure from the nationalists to get read of them.

 

There are reports Russians are trying to politically consolidate the occupied territories, so a move to delegitimize people they suspect are willing to participate I can understand.

 

If they win, there would have to be elections so don't fully understand what you would gain now in that respect.

 

Anyway, a couple of interesting articles from that Berlin-based academic so thanks for sharing. There is still very little talk and info in the west of what is going on the ground politically, which is hardly surprising.

 

[Arniepie]

Whilst there  is obviously a war of disinformation going on,I've seen very little support for Russia, in Ukraine itself.

[Numero Veinticinco]

23 minutes ago, Shooter in the Motor said:

If Russia was serious about the nuclear option, surely they'd just fire them into Ukraine and be done with it?

 

What are NATO so concerned about?

Yeah, NATO, ya big fannies; it's just a few nukes into a friendly country, what are you worried about ya big fannies!

 

That said, both the UK and US would be treaty bound and brought into the war if that happen. So, ya know, ups and downs.

[SasaS]

22 minutes ago, Arniepie said:

Whilst there  is obviously a war of disinformation going on,I've seen very little support for Russia, in Ukraine itself.

Where have you been looking?

[bossy]

Putin gets rid of the opposition too, but doesn’t have to have had his country attacked by a historical oppressor to do so. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/alexei-navalny-13-years-more-jail-fraud?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Arniepie]

44 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Where have you been looking?

I've seen very little on the news.

Most of the reception seems to be hostile?

 

[SasaS]

23 minutes ago, Arniepie said:

I've seen very little on the news.

Most of the reception seems to be hostile?

 

On what news? If you mean major western networks and media, they mostly don't report anything except demos. It has been very hard to get a picture of what is actually happening. From the other side, I've seen videos of people hugging Russian soldiers, I've seen a video yesterday of a RIA reporter trying to talk to Mariupol refugees who clearly didn't want to talk to him and didn't look liberated.

[Section_31]

Hunt for Red October on Netflix, tremendous.

[TheHowieLama]

1 hour ago, bossy said:

Putin gets rid of the opposition too, but doesn’t have to have had his country attacked by a historical oppressor to do so. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/alexei-navalny-13-years-more-jail-fraud?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Yea, alleged to have done something Ivanka Trump actually did.

[bossy]

9 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Yea, alleged to have done something Ivanka Trump actually did.

Ah, but Putin and Trump are fighting the Deep State…

[Red Phoenix]

 

[Captain Turdseye]

 

He’s boss, Navalny. Hopefully he gets the gig when Putin gets iced.
 

Putin thinks it’s one way. But it’s the other way. 

[SasaS]

Saw these optimistic viewpoints shared, I still don't get the concept "Russians are not controlling the territory, they have only advanced through it", also these casualty estimates from western analysts - which never come with a source or methodology explanation, do they have estimates of number of wounded from observing movements around hospitals or what, or are they just extrapolating or reducing Ukrainian fanciful figures by a certain percentage.

 

For example, everybody seems to believe now 15 percent of Russian force in UKR has been taken out, KIA, wounded, POWs, desertion and that losses at many combat units are estimated at 1/3 of personnel. At the same time, morale is very low. But Russians are still fighting and gaining ground. Isn't this a contradiction, a low morale unit which has lost 1/3 of its soldiers is still fighting and advancing? From history, only elite or highly motivated forces or forces that have no choice would be still fighting let alone advancing after losing every third man in less than a month.  

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/20/russia-ukraine-military-offensive/

[Section_31]

Are they gaining ground though? From what I can see they're just pummeling apartment blocks with howitzers. I could do that standing on my head, indeed I often do.

 

A force which loses four generals in two weeks isn't doing well IMO, but I'm no William Slim.

[TheHowieLama]

14 minutes ago, SasaS said:

From history, only elite or highly motivated forces or forces that have no choice would be still fighting let alone advancing after losing every third man in less than a month.  

 

Is it possible that the Russian troops are largely kept in the dark as to outcomes in other theatres?

[Gnasher]

 

[Gnasher]

11 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Are they gaining ground though? From what I can see they're just pummeling apartment blocks with howitzers. I could do that standing on my head, indeed I often do.

 

A force which loses four generals in two weeks isn't doing well IMO, but I'm no William Slim.

 

 

 

 

[SasaS]

19 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Are they gaining ground though? From what I can see they're just pummeling apartment blocks with howitzers. I could do that standing on my head, indeed I often do.

 

A force which loses four generals in two weeks isn't doing well IMO, but I'm no William Slim.

 

They are gaining ground according to maps and constantly trying to explore new breakthrough areas. I don't know why are they using generals, maybe they are "leading by example" or being specifically targeted. If the morale is so low, casualties are probably not that high as we are led to believe.

 

17 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Is it possible that the Russian troops are largely kept in the dark as to outcomes in other theatres?

You mean they don't know that some other unit suffered heavy casualties? They are saying that they are not able to rotate all that much, because there is barely 200k troops there.

[Lurtz]

The cunts at the daily mail just giving the Farage door a nudge open. Fucking Ukrainians taking our jerbs. 

[SasaS]

18 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

He went quickly from it is better to die fighting than get captured to it is better to go home.

 

[TheHowieLama]

25 minutes ago, SasaS said:

You mean they don't know that some other unit suffered heavy casualties? They are saying that they are not able to rotate all that much, because there is barely 200k troops there.

yea.

Barely 200 k troops is a shitload - twice what US had in Afghanistan at any one point. 

[SasaS]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

yea.

Barely 200 k troops is a shitload - twice what US had in Afghanistan at any one point. 

That is not a good comparison, completely different type of war. You should compare it to the Iraq War, almost half a million troops.

[Section_31]

The problem with Russia is that it's a sort of extreme version of the West in terms of how capitalism and corruption erodes a state's ability to function.

 

When you look at the Wall Street banking collapse. At its most basic level it was a string of lots of people all telling lies to make money. Buyers lied about wages, estate agents avoided asking difficult questions,  banks lied to hedge funds lied to ratings agencies, ratings agencies lied to the treasury. Everyone knew what was going on but wanted to get rich/avoid getting into trouble. 

 

Eventually, it's like Ker Plunk, you pull enough sticks out and everything goes to shit. 

 

With a country like Russia, that kind of culture has spilled over into everything. The police, the judiciary, the media, the civil service, the military, the intelligence services.

 

There's stories of military suppliers repackaging dogfood as beef for soldiers, and contractors saying they'd maintained vehicles but haven't. The squaddies will be telling the generals they've secured an objective, the FSB will be telling the army they've got up to date intelligence, they'll all be telling Putin their military is good to go and making progress. But it's all bollocks. 

 

This kind of culture has permeated bits of Britain too. You've seen it with Covid contracts, MPs with second jobs, and in the States with military and post Iraq war construction contracts, but 'by and large' the courts in both countries are still reasonably unsullied by corruption, which has stopped it taking a grip more broadly across public life. 

 

 

 

[cochyn]

It’s been pulled now  I think, but that Russian article from yesterday with the hacked death toll figures was interesting; everyone jumped on the numbers but the gist of the articles was that the SMO was close to concluding its aim of eliminating the nazi threat in Mariupol. Whether this means the Russians are redrawing their goals in Ukraine isn’t clear but it certainly suggests they are telling readers the offensive is drawing to a close in this regards. I wonder….?

[cochyn]

Ukraine army doing a bit of kettling apparently…

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1506303352111513605