Whither the world?

[Ne Moe Imya]

Just talking with the wife and I'm genuinely nervous for the state of the world.  

 

For the first time in my life I can see a number of potential scenarios on the horizon that lead to war.  And I don't mean war as in something confined to a small area in the Middle East or Africa, we have those all the time.  I mean a major war with at least some of the G20 nations fighting against others.

 

Now, I'm not saying this is a definite thing or that it's even likely, I'm just saying that it's possible.  If the EU totally collapses and we end up with Boris Johnson and Donald Trump in charge of two of the most powerful nations on earth, can you really rule anything out?

 

Our parents and grandparents grew up with that sense probably most of their lives with people like Thatcher, Krushchev, Reagan and Nixon in charge all the time, but for me it's a first, and it makes me appreciate what I had more than I did when it was here.

 

And who knows?  Maybe I'm worried for nothing, maybe the UK will hold together and just be like Norway on the fringes of the EU, politically unaligned but economically still pretty dependent on the rest of the continent.  Perhaps Hillary really will win a runaway vote in the US and the Republicans will resolve to boot the racist crazy wing of their party to the curb in future elections.  Maybe Scotland will stay in the UK and after a disastrous term as PM by Johnson or someone like him, Labour will have a chance at restoring sanity again.

 

But maybe not.  So how about you, how do you think it's going to go?  Is the EU going to collapse altogether, with Ukraine and even Poland running back to Russia for economic support?  Will we see another Iron Curtain of sorts?  Or will everyone gain their sanity in time to avoid a real disaster?

[Section_31]

While I agree to an extent, it was always thus, you were probably just too young to notice.

 

I grew up during the Cold War, with five million Russian troops over the horizon and enough nuclear weapons to destroy the solar system.

 

Thatcherite and Reagan politics, constant US military excursions in Lybia, Nicaragua, Grenada, the first Gulf war, scud missiles landing on Tel Aviv, the IRA blowing shit out of English cities, and constant scare stories about ozone layers and AIDS.

 

Save for a brief period in the 90s where things were starting to look a bit star trek the next generation under a young Blair and Clinton and a dancing Boris Yeltsin, the gaff has always been fucked up.

 

The problem now is the enemy isn't from without it's from within. From the USA to the UK, Russia to Iraq, the people are being preyed upon and exploited by bona fide gangsters and oligarchs.

 

We always come back from the brink though because underneath it all, we all want the same thing.

[Paulie Dangerously]

[Ne Moe Imya]

The problem now is the enemy isn't from without it's from within. From the USA to the UK, Russia to Iraq, the people are being preyed upon and exploited by bona fide gangsters and oligarchs.

 

We always come back from the brink though because underneath it all, we all want the same thing.

 

I guess, I'm just not feeling the last bit, especially today.  Maybe I just need to give it a week before getting worried, probably calm down by then.

 

It just seems like for maybe the first time since I was a boy that I'm not at all confident the world is going to get better and better as time goes on any more.  I used to think that was sort of a given, but now it doesn't feel at all that way.

[Elite]

Life goes on no matter who's in charge. We are lucky we live in a developed nation and live relatively comfortable lives.

[PestiRed]

Life goes on no matter who's in charge. We are lucky we live in a developed nation and live relatively comfortable lives.

You and your avatar can shove your cheery dispositions up your arses

[Elite]

You and your avatar can shove your cheery dispositions up your arses

Where will feeling sorry for yourself and moaning get you?

[PestiRed]

Where will feeling sorry for yourself and moaning get you?

You're right. Mad shotgun rampage it is then

[Babb'sBurstNad]

The eighties seemed worse to me.

 

But the films were better.

[Elite]

You're right. Mad shotgun rampage it is then

Ensure you kill a few tories if you do.

[Ne Moe Imya]

The eighties seemed worse to me.

 

But the films were better.

 

I shudder to think of the UK version of Red Dawn.  Perhaps featuring Muslims parachuting in and taking over Parliament, forcing the children of a Lincoln school to take to the Cotswolds to run a guerrilla campaign.

[rubble-rouser]

I expect Putin to go into the Baltic states in the next 3 years.

[Total Longo]

Now, I'm not saying this is a definite thing or that it's even likely, I'm just saying that it's possible.  If the EU totally collapses and we end up with Boris Johnson and Donald Trump in charge of two of the most powerful nations on earth, can you really rule anything out?

 

You think Britain is one of the two most powerful nations on earth? Seriously?  

[Sugar Ape]

You think Britain is one of the two most powerful nations on earth? Seriously?  

 

He said two of the most powerful not the two most powerful. At the minute it's one of the biggest economies and after America, China and Russia has probably got one of the best military units. Whether that lasts is another matter altogether.

[El Rojo]

It ain't over until the Ivan Drago robot gets his head knocked off by Rocky.

[Total Longo]

He said two of the most powerful not the two most powerful. At the minute it's one of the biggest economies and after America, China and Russia has probably got one of the best military units. Whether that lasts is another matter altogether.

Fair do's, I misread the original post.

[Section_31]

When you remove military power apparently Britain is the most influential country on earth in terms of soft power, influence of culture, language, music, arts etc. They did a survey a couple of years back and more Chinese teenagers knew who David Beckham was than recognised chairman Mao.

[Strontium]

In this country, we've been experiencing an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity for some time now. It was odds on that the natives would eventually start pining for the days when we were at war with the world and living a hand-to-mouth existence.

 

That's people for you. Never underestimate their capacity to fuck a good thing up.

[Creator Supreme]

I hope it's a case of whither the world, call me selfish, we're fucked anyway, may as well wish for an ELE!

[M_B]

I expect Putin to go into the Baltic states in the next 3 years.

 

That would be a mistake. They are in NATO. And I wouldn't want to test either Trump or Clinton.

[Naz17]

As much of a joke Boris Johnson appears to be, he isn't one to provoke any international aggression. I actually think he did a very good job as London mayor and represented people from all communities well. I suspect a lot of his positioning in this referendum was more for political gain than harbouring ill feeling towards immigration etc. Trump is obviously the one to watch out for.

[Naz17]

As much of a joke Boris Johnson appears to be, he isn't one to provoke any international aggression. I actually think he did a very good job as London mayor and represented people from all communities well. I suspect a lot of his positioning in this referendum was more for political gain than harbouring ill feeling towards immigration etc. Trump is obviously the one to watch out for.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

I was in a right fucking state yesterday.  The more I thought about the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, the more I got sad and scared (until I started drinking, which made me angry as well).

 

I wrote something about it for the union branch, partly to force myself to get my head around it and to try to find some sort of silver lining.  I failed.

 

**************************************************

Hello,

 

Well, that was all a bit grim, wasn’t it?

 

Following a horrible, bitter and disreputable campaign – marked by spurious claims and scare stories on the Remain side and overt racism and “dishonesty on an industrial scale” on the “Leave” side – we now know that 52% of the UK population voted to Leave the EU and we all now face an uncertain future.  While some people may feel satisfied to leave the organisation which meted out an economic punishment-beating to the people of Greece, it is instructive to see the joyful reactions of people like Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen.  The result will equally be welcomed by the EDL, Britain First, BNP, the National Front and the murderer of Jo Cox MP.  As a general rule of thumb, when Fascists are celebrating, we should be on our guard.

 

And there’s no question that this result is welcomed by Fascists, Nationalists and the far-right all across Europe.  The EU is a guarantor of rights for workers, for trade unions, for ethnic and religious minorities, etc.  As such, it is anathema to the far right and they all want it destroyed.  And if they were to get there way, what then?  Well, we’ve been here before.  At a time of widespread poverty and economic inequality, rapid demographic changes and political polarisation, only a supranational organisation like the EU can provide a forum for addressing problems before they escalate.  Without it, Europe would likely slip back into its pre-EU methods of resolving disputes: war.  Just as in the 1980s, war in Yugoslavia seemed an almost impossibly remote idea, so now we have become accustomed to the idea of a Europe without major war.  During the campaign, any talk of war was dismissed as scaremongering, but the simple fact is inescapable: war between EU Member States is, to all intents and purposes, impossible; remove the EU (as Europe’s Fascists would like to) and war becomes all-too-possible.

 

When the UK seeks to negotiate its new relationship with the EU, European negotiators will be fully aware of this threat.  They will be fully aware that a flourishing UK would serve as an inspiration to nationalists, Fascists and Eurosceptics across the Union.  They will recognise a clear incentive to ensure this does not happen.  If they care about maintaining peace in Europe (not to mention their own positions on a lucrative gravy-train) they will not offer the UK any favourable trade terms.  The most likely offer would be something akin to Norway’s relationship with the EU: access to the Single Market, but with an obligation to pay an “entrance fee”, to maintain fewer border controls than the UK currently has, to accept all EU laws and regulations but no input into the formulation of those laws and regulations.  People who voted to “take back control” (whatever that means) can expect to be seriously disappointed.

 

Meanwhile, the economic repercussions of yesterday’s votes are already hitting hard.  Markets hate uncertainty and the complete lack of any credible proposals for the UK’s post-EU future has already caused the value of Sterling to fall to a 31-year low and has led to precipitous drops in share prices.  In the longer term, the vote to leave the EU makes investment in the UK a far less attractive option.  Imagine being the global head of General Motors; would you focus investment for the next Astra on Ellesmere Port (with access to a market of 64 million) or on Gliwice, Poland (with access to a market of 650 million)?  The same question can be asked right across what is left of the UK’s manufacturing industry.  When George Osborne spoke of the need for an Emergency Budget – with his one-track approach of ever-deeper cuts to public spending – for once he wasn’t lying.

 

What will this deepening economic crisis and constitutional uncertainty mean for UK politics?  Already, Scottish nationalists have made it clear that they will be calling for another independence referendum; after all, the country which only narrowly voted against independence, then completely rejected the three main Westminster parties voted solidly to Remain.  Should Scotland lose the benefits of EU membership because of the whims of the English shires?  And if Scotland leaves the UK, what will this mean for the prospects of regaining a Labour Government?  Much more worrying is the situation in Northern Ireland.  With a solid vote to Remain outweighed by English and Welsh votes, Sinn Fein have already stated that they believe this strengthens the case for a united Ireland.  Needless to say, not everybody agrees with that.  The prospect for increased tensions and even a return to violence are much more real after yesterday’s vote.

 

Meanwhile, in London, some Blairite MPs have used the defeat as an opportunity to attack the democratically-elected Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn and to call for a motion of no confidence.  In the Tory Party, David Cameron has already announced that he will resign as party leader and Prime Minister in October.  Who will take his place?  It is possible that, with an ever-worsening economy and an ever-worsening atmosphere of xenophobia, large sections of the public (egged on by a bigoted media) will call for a “strong man” who will deal with the immigrants, then the Socialists, then the Trade Unionists…

 

In our workplace, we can expect that further cuts to budgets will lead to cuts to public services, to jobs and to pay and conditions.  Recent years have been very, very difficult.  It may be that we ain’t seen nothing yet.

 

As public service workers, as trade unionists and as anti-racists, we will need to stay united and stay focused on the many, many battles that yesterday’s result will bring.  There is no good news from this referendum, just many difficult challenges.

 

 

[Anubis]

I'm less worried about threats from Europe an ISIS than I am about people displaced because of rising sea levels contaminating fresh drinking water in costal areas and the lack of water in the middle east and Africa. As it's essential for survival we can expect mass migration and armed conflict that is likely to impact on us.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

I'm not so worried about attacks on the UK.  I'm more worried about the rise of Fascism in Europe. If the UK leaving sparks off an unwinding of the EU itself, then all kinds of ethnic, religious and political hostilities could spiral into serious violence quicker than anyone could stop it.

 

I don't see that as an imminent threat, or as anything that's inevitable - but it's a bit more likely in a weakened EU than in a strong one.