Title Race

[Scott_M]

[Scott_M]

3 hours ago, Jose Jones said:

I am worried about all our away games. Could easily drop points in any of them.

Get what you mean, ultimately, to be champions we need to go to these places and win. 
 

Our run in record over the past few years has been very good. Ironically, the year we won it was our worst run in, although we’d already won it…

 

22/23 - 7 wins, 2 draws (if there had been something on Southampton, I bet we’d have won that).

 

21/22 - 7 wins, 2 draws.

 

20/21 - 7 wins, 2 draws.

 

19/20 - 5 wins, 2 defeats, 2 draws.

 

18/19 - 9 wins.

 

Achieving 7 wins and 2 draws again would give us 90 points.

 

Arsenal can get a maximum of 92 and City a maximum of 91. 
 

I think we’ve all felt for a while 90 would be enough, I can see City getting 91. 

[Dave D]

City and Arsenal both have to go to Brighton. They always create chances 

[Rushies tash]

1 minute ago, Dave D said:

City and Arsenal both have to go to Brighton. They always create chances 

 

It'll be interesting to see if every Brighton tumble is rewarded with a free kick in those games. I doubt it.

[an tha]

I just don't think this abu dhabi side wins all its last 9 - so 91 for them is IMHO off the table. 

 

Arsenal won't win all their last 9 either - so 92 for them is off table too....

 

I don't think we win all 9 so 94 is off table for us too.

 

But given we hold the advantage as it stands and fact that any dropped pts by the other two makes 90 pretty much nailed on to win it (ok could see a situation where both us and arsenal get 90 so GD would come into play)  then i feel 23 more pts for us will win it.

 

It could well be less, it is for my money very, very unlikely to need to be more.

 

 

[TD_LFC]

We're all agreed that the ideal scenario is it goes down to the final game of the season, Everton spawn a point that keeps them up but hand's us the title then, on the day of our parade around the city, the premier league announces the result of Evertons punishment that relegates them anyway?

[piphomer]

10 minutes ago, TD_LFC said:

We're all agreed that the ideal scenario is it goes down to the final game of the season, Everton spawn a point that keeps them up but hand's us the title then, on the day of our parade around the city, the premier league announces the result of Evertons punishment that relegates them anyway?

If Carlsberg did title run-ins...

[Dapower]

47 minutes ago, Rushies tash said:

 

It'll be interesting to see if every Brighton tumble is rewarded with a free kick in those games. I doubt it.

Well coote won’t be reffing them though 

[LFC 6 Times]

City have 2 toughies this week in Villa and Palace at Selhurst park. Arsenal also have Brighton at the Amex on Saturday. Winning at OT could potentially put us in a really really good position.

[Ronnie Whelan]

10 minutes ago, LFC 6 Times said:

City have 2 toughies this week in Villa and Palace at Selhurst park. Arsenal also have Brighton at the Amex on Saturday. Winning at OT could potentially put us in a really really good position.

Hello season 2019/2020 hope you're keeping well.

 

Edit: before the pandemic obviously!

[Ron B]

City’s wobbly spells always seem to last three or four games. They’ve dropped points against us and Arsenal, and Villa are prime candidates to get a result too. That still leaves the onus on us to carry on winning, but this is our opportunity to seize. 

[an tha]

28 minutes ago, LFC 6 Times said:

City have 2 toughies this week in Villa and Palace at Selhurst park. Arsenal also have Brighton at the Amex on Saturday. Winning at OT could potentially put us in a really really good position.

No Watkins for aston villa kills any hope of them getting anything there.

 

Crystal Palace are often good for getting a point off the cheats though.

[Babb'sBurstNad]

My worry is City have no proper emotional - for want of a better term - fixtures. That tends to suit their flat track bully style.

 

We've got a local derby and Utd, same as Arsenal. City's most charges fixture will be Spurs.

 

Reckon it's about even odds right now for all three sides.

[Reckoner]

Defo worth a read if you can be arsed. From The Athletic.
 

 

Liverpool’s right-sided triangle was synonymous with their 2019-20 Premier League title win.

Mohamed Salah coming inside from the wing, Trent Alexander-Arnold pushing on from full-back and Jordan Henderson rotating wide to cover — Liverpool won 21 of the 22 league games the trio started together.

Among the 21 was a 2-1 defeat of visitors Brighton & Hove Albion in November 2019. But since then, Brighton have been a bogey team for Jurgen Klopp’s side — with three Brighton wins and four draws in the nine matches before the two sides met at Anfield again on Sunday.

Klopp had not beaten opposite number Roberto De Zerbi in four meetings. De Zerbi insisted that stat was a “coincidence”, but, since 2020-21, Liverpool only had a worse record (in terms of lowest win rate) against Real Madrid.

In many ways, Liverpool’s 2-1 win yesterday was a repeat of that match four and a half years ago, but with largely different personnel. It was again all about Liverpool’s right side, but Salah was the only constant. Alexis Mac Allister, signed from Brighton in the summer, and Conor Bradley have taken the places of Henderson and Alexander-Arnold respectively.

Alexander-Arnold explained the tactics behind Liverpool’s triangles to The Athletic in 2022: “We have the No 8 in midfield, the full-backs and the wingers on each side. It is about making sure, at all times, there should be someone occupying the width, someone high up on the last line, and someone in a half-space or in a midfield eight.”

It is more fluid than structured, but it’s an interchanging trio which has been less common this season with Alexander-Arnold periodically moving into a central midfield role.

But with Alexander-Arnold out injured and Bradley overlapping from the right of the back four, Liverpool set about exploiting a Brighton defensive block which has struggled all season to prevent or defend through balls, particularly ones inside the full-back.

Liverpool’s approach was compounded by Andy Robertson also being out injured, with right-footed Joe Gomez filling in for him at left-back. Without natural width on that side, Gomez moved into midfield, offering an extra option for central progression, but this left Luis Diaz isolated on the left wing and channelled Liverpool’s attack down the right — especially as Gomez’s right-footedness suited passes to that side.

GO DEEPER

The passes that define how Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City are playing

Salah looked to play inside, which created space for Bradley to push on into. Mac Allister’s job was to provide service, not cover, with Jarell Quansah and Wataru Endo there to prevent or terminate counter-attacks. Brighton’s left-back, Pervis Estupinan, and left-winger, Simon Adingra, duly struggled against Liverpool’s rotations.

In settled possession, Estupinan would sometimes position himself close to the advanced Bradley, which would pull him outside the vertical line of the ball and open a lane for Mac Allister to slide through passes for Salah — if Adingra switched off, Salah had a free run.

Because Brighton were not as aggressively man-for-man as in other games, there were occasions when Estupinan and Adingra would fail to hand Bradley/Salah over as they rotated, leaving them unmarked.

Here is how the shape primarily looked, with Endo located between Liverpool’s centre-backs, Virgil van Dijk and Quansah. This allowed Quansah to position himself wider, turning the wide triangle into a diamond.

In this sequence, Quansah chips it over Adingra’s head, to Bradley, which triggers Estupinan to go out to the young full-back.

As Estupinan goes, Adingra does not recover quickly enough. Bradley slides it inside to Salah, who dribbles into the area and curls a shot that pings off the outside of the post. His 12 shots yesterday were the most he has ever had in a Premier League match, and half of them came inside its first 20 minutes.

Mac Allister’s progressive passing was a feature of the afternoon — he played 22 such passes, the most by anyone on the pitch and over a quarter of Liverpool’s team total (81). Thirteen of his 58 completions (12 out of 25 when isolated to only forward passes) were to Salah.

The defence-splitting pass from the half-space became Liverpool’s primary route to goal.

Here, Endo is further forward and Liverpool are building up with their centre-backs. Mac Allister receives from Van Dijk, while Bradley makes a dart infield behind Brighton’s midfield. Salah is holding the width.

Mac Allister turns. Adingra was marking Bradley but he and Estupinan switch roles, as the full-back steps up. Mac Allister sees the switch and passes between them, as Salah makes a diagonal run in behind.

Salah, with a clear sight of goal, should shoot or pass, but tries to cut inside onto his dominant left foot. Adingra recovers to tackle him and concedes a corner.

Liverpool’s equaliser came from the second phase of a corner later in the half, again after a right-sided attack — Salah dropped in to receive Endo’s pass (Bradley pushed forward), set it to Mac Allister and a sprinting Tariq Lamptey tackled the Argentinian, which led to the corner.

Klopp called it “the best performance we have had against Roberto’s Brighton. More possession, better possession. A really good rhythm in the game”. Possession and rhythm were words he emphasised beforehand, wanting to minimise Brighton’s build-up (because of how hard it is to press).

The “better possession” that Klopp referenced is important. Liverpool had 55 per cent of the ball, about standard for their other games against De Zerbi’s Brighton, but their 70 per cent field tilt — Liverpool’s share of total final-third passes in the game — was comfortably their highest against them. Brighton were pinned deep often, though they broke out frequently in the first half, as Liverpool’s counter-press was loose and also conceded too many fouls.

“We showed the boys a couple of situations at half-time and told them what we should keep doing, where we had to calm down,” said Klopp. “We tried that, and again controlled big parts of the game, as much as you can against them. It is not always possible because it is super-intense to deny them.”

If Liverpool’s right side indirectly made their equaliser, it undoubtedly crafted the winner. Tellingly, for all their attacks down that side, Liverpool only attempted five crosses from the right, their fewest in a Premier League game since four against Brighton in the reverse fixture in October.

Incisive passing instead of crossing is how Liverpool won the game.

Bradley and Salah are playing on the last line here, so Dominik Szoboszlai provides the width, positioned behind Adingra to receive Van Dijk’s pass.

Szoboszlai dribbles forward, then fizzes a pass across to the unmarked Mac Allister — Brighton’s defence have dropped into the box, and Bradley acts as a screen to pass behind.

Salah, initially marked out the game by Pascal Gross, comes alive as defender Jan Paul van Hecke is deep at the back post, playing him onside. Mac Allister threads it between Lewis Dunk and Gross. Salah takes two touches: one to control, one to score.

Sunday’s performance was a mix of 2019-20 Liverpool — the wide triangles — and the 2023-24 version. They conceded first again but made a comeback, a theme of this season. Danny Welbeck’s goal after 89 seconds was the earliest by a visiting team at Anfield since Harry Kane for Tottenham in October 2019 (47 seconds).

It is their seventh win, and 24th, 25th and 26th points, from a losing position in the Premier League this season, with the former a club record.

Liverpool were more effective than efficient, and a little too emotional at times, but most importantly took charge of the Premier League title race — they are two points clear with nine games each to go after Arsenal and Manchester City’s goalless draw later in the day. Data provider Opta measures this weekend as enhancing Liverpool’s title chances by 12 percentage points, now making them favourites (48 per cent).

Salah, Van Dijk and Gomez were the only players in Liverpool’s starting XI against Brighton who featured in the 2019-20 title-winning season (goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher was in the squad but his only appearances were in the domestic cups). Neither new signing Mac Allister nor academy graduate Bradley were first-team players before this summer.

For Liverpool to evolve the squad and refit profiles, but retain their trademark wide-area threat, is testament to their recruitment, depth-planning and coaching

[an tha]

40 minutes ago, Babb'sBurstNad said:

My worry is City have no proper emotional - for want of a better term - fixtures. That tends to suit their flat track bully style.

 

We've got a local derby and Utd, same as Arsenal. City's most charges fixture will be Spurs.

 

Reckon it's about even odds right now for all three sides.

We are also everyones cup final.

 

You can bet for example west ham fans will be baying for blood v us, but they don't really care when abu dhabi rock up - in fact they have some sort of supposed friendship, some bollocks about they clapped when they were relegated blah blah blah.....but show the stupid cockney twats 'them scaaaaasers' and they turn into rabid animals. 

 

Every away game for us is a different proposition to what abu dhabi face.

 

 

[Barrington Womble]

21 hours ago, Aventus said:

Just had a glance at the lineups and the injuries for the other two. 

 

Man city 2 injuries, Ederson and Walker. 

Arsenal 1 injury, Timber. 

 

Us today, 9 injuries. Four or five of which are first choice. 

 

Will be some achievement if we win this league 

 

And yet we are told city have an injury crisis. They have less missing for their whole team and even after yesterday where they've added another one, than we just have from our first choice back 5. 

 

1 hour ago, LFC 6 Times said:

City have 2 toughies this week in Villa and Palace at Selhurst park. Arsenal also have Brighton at the Amex on Saturday. Winning at OT could potentially put us in a really really good position.

We play last next weekend. So we'll know where we are going into it. But let's get things right. Let's win on Thursday first. Sunday doesn't exist yet. 

[Reckoner]

32 minutes ago, Babb'sBurstNad said:

My worry is City have no proper emotional - for want of a better term - fixtures. That tends to suit their flat track bully style.

 

We've got a local derby and Utd, same as Arsenal. City's most charges fixture will be Spurs.

 

Reckon it's about even odds right now for all three sides.

I suppose it’s hard to have emotional fixtures for a club that has no emotion.

[Dave D]

4 minutes ago, an tha said:

We are also everyones cup final.

 

You can bet for example west ham fans will be baying for blood v us, but they don't really care when abu dhabi rock up - in fact they have some sort of supposed friendship, some bollocks about they clapped when they were relegated blah blah blah.....but show the stupid cockney twats 'them scaaaaasers' and they turn into rabid animals. 

 

 

Totally agree. Mid table teams with nothing to play for seem to play out of their skins against us.

 

Fulham away is the one I’ve had my eye on for a few weeks now 

[Dave D]

Add to that the commentary team always seen to build up into a frenzy if are backs are to the wall 

[Scott_M]

8 minutes ago, Reckoner said:

I suppose it’s hard to have emotional fixtures for a club that has no emotion.

They are Spock to our Kirk. 

[3 Stacks]

Will be interesting to see if we fall behind in the Goodison and Old Trafford fixtures. We have been navigating that all season and blitzing teams after, but I'm not sure we want to do that in those games.

[Jairzinho]

Something something one game at a time, I'd take a 1-0, he's got great feet for a big man and he's almost hit it too well.

[Scott_M]

It always feels like City just won every game come this stage of the season. 
 

In reality…

 

22/23 - 7 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat (the draw and defeat were after they’d already won the title).

21/22 - 7 wins and 2 draws.

20/21 - 6 wins, 2 defeats (again, 1 defeat was after they’ve won the league). 
19/20 - 8 wins, 1 defeat (the defeat handed us the title & they knew they weren’t catching us anyway).

18/19 - 9 wins. 

…I think it still show they always do enough. Them winning all 9 wouldn’t surprise me.
 

I think that Spurs game getting moved, probably, to the penultimate game of the season, doesn’t help us. If 5th place is enough for CL, I expect Spurs will have already qualified before the game.

[Barrington Womble]

6 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

Will be interesting to see if we fall behind in the Goodison and Old Trafford fixtures. We have been navigating that all season and blitzing teams after, but I'm not sure we want to do that in those games.

I've been saying for 2 years now, this shit has to stop. It started during the run in in 21/22 and we've never shook it off. It can't be coincidence and we're doing something wrong either in setup or prep. We absolutely have to get it worked out.

[Barrington Womble]

2 minutes ago, Scott_M said:

It always feels like City just won every game come this stage of the season. 
 

In reality…

 

22/23 - 7 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat (the draw and defeat were after they’d already won the title).

21/22 - 7 wins and 2 draws.

20/21 - 6 wins, 2 defeats (again, 1 defeat was after they’ve won the league). 
19/20 - 8 wins, 1 defeat (the defeat handed us the title & they knew they weren’t catching us anyway).

18/19 - 9 wins. 

…I think it still show they always do enough. Them winning all 9 wouldn’t surprise me.
 

I think that Spurs game getting moved, probably, to the penultimate game of the season, doesn’t help us. If 5th place is enough for CL, I expect Spurs will have already qualified before the game.

They generally win enough and not every game. If they need to win them all, they can. But they're not giving that vibe this year, although their fixtures look the easiest of the lot.