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US Election Thread 2016


Red Phoenix
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That's a common thing that The Daily Show pick up on from time to time.  Politicians (or their spin doctors) put out a word or phrase that they want to get into people's heads and the media just slavishly, uncritically parrot it.

 

I don't think it says anything sinister about the Clinton campaign; it just shows how piss-poor the standard of journalism is.  (See also, the lack of follow-up questions to Trump's lies on that aircraft carrier.)

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Nate Silver is now saying it's only 60/40 in Clinton's favour.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

 

I don't like those odds.  The "winding path" analysis is nowhere near as comfortable as it once was, either.

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-should-panic-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/

 

All of this is tricky, though, because we still don’t have a great sense for where the long-term equilibrium of the race is, or even whether there’s an equilibrium at all — and we probably never will because of the unusual nature of Trump’s candidacy. Perhaps Trump isn’t that different from a “generic Republican” after all. Or perhaps (more plausibly in my view) he is a very poor candidate who costs the Republicans substantially, but thatClinton is nearly as bad a candidate and mostly offsets this effect. Still, I’d advise waiting a week or so to see whether Clinton’s current dip in the polls sticks as the news moves on from her “bad weekend” to other subjects.

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

 

Odds have swung a bit in Clinton's favour since the debate.

 

It's probably reassuring that Five Thirty Eight haven't shown Trump as the more likely winner on the Polls Plus forecast at any point since they started in June.

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The message that says "Trump April 26th"?

It is pretty clear that, isn't it.

 

I love the way the text says:

Trump Will Go 26th
 

Creepy radio broadcast repeats "Trump will go 26th" over and over again. Could be a false flag, could be a warning. Any ideas? Message was aired on 1630 AM in Chester Township, NJ around 7 a.m.

 

Was there only one person in a car who actually heard that?  Nothing else on the internet from anyone else picking up that "broadcast"?

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It is pretty clear that, isn't it.

 

I love the way the text says:

Trump Will Go 26th
 

Creepy radio broadcast repeats "Trump will go 26th" over and over again. Could be a false flag, could be a warning. Any ideas? Message was aired on 1630 AM in Chester Township, NJ around 7 a.m.

 

Was there only one person in a car who actually heard that?  Nothing else on the internet from anyone else picking up that "broadcast"?

 

Trump Will Go 26th

Toynbee Idea

In Movie 2001

Resurrect Dead on Planet Jupiter

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Well, if this "message" is to be believed then it will all be over on Monday of next week.

 

There's a chance it could be over starting Wednesday as there's rumours Wikileaks are releasing the rest of the Clinton emails then. They're supposed to be bad as well.

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Sorry, I said emails but I don't think it's actually that clear what's going to be released. Maybe I've had it in my head that they're going to release the 33k deleted emails after getting hold of them or something.

 

I think it's fairly certain that it's going to be bad though, and if it is, I wonder what the media will try to distract us with this time?

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Wikileaks has its 10th anniversary on Tuesday, Assange was due to speak from the balcony at the embassy but it's been cancelled due to security concerns according to reports. So he's now supposed to be appearing via video link at a Berlin press conference Tuesday morning instead.

 

So the big Clinton related leak could be around then if it happens.

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