Russia v Ukraine

[Gnasher]

30 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

 

 

You make it sound like the West did this through choice. Russia invaded and people fought back. 

 

The Russians have lost something like 60-80k troops and god knows how much equipment. It's alright General Fuckpants saying the Russians can't lose, but that depends how you define a loss.

 

They wanted to occupy Ukraine but they've got about as much change of doing so as I have of getting a blowjob off Tuppence Middleton. 

 

Also, and their biggest loss - is beyond their nuclear threats, nobody's scared of them any more. The baltic states would have been shitting one when they invaded Ukraine, now they're probably not remotely arsed. 

 

It's a smoke and mirrors power, a geoplitical wizard of oz, hiding behind a Soviet era reputation but is in actual fact a 2nd world military. 

 

No I'm not against sanctions as such. I'm not against providing certain military aid, I'm 100% in favour of providing humanitarian aid. 

 

The sanctions should have remained targeted, now they're bringing us to our knees, the evidence is stark and its going to get worse. Look at Germany announcing today they have to revert to coal, the planets spinning out of control. 

 

I agree on the state of the Russian military offensive, they're no real danger to us, we should revise our response accordingly.

 

No end in sight to this. It could carry on for years, Zelensky is now saying it won't be over till Russia leaves Crimea, so that's never. Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 and they're still there now. 

 

All sides negotiated on the release of grain, so it can happen. That General and others are right, we desperatly need talks, how else is will it end? 

[SasaS]

5 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

No I'm not against sanctions as such, they should have remained targeted. I'm not against providing certain military aid, I'm 100% in favour of providing humanitarian aid. 

 

The sanctions should have remained targeted, now they're bringing us to our knees, the evidence is stark and its going to get worse. Look at Germany announcing today they have to revert to coal, the planets spinning out of control. 

 

No end in sight to this. It could carry on for years, Zelensky is now saying it won't be over till Russia leaves Crimea, so that's never. Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 and they're still there now. 

 

All sides negotiated on the release of grain, so it can happen. That General and others are right, we desperatly need talks, how else is will it end? 

You cannot compare the deal for allowing Ukrainian grain to go to the world market, for which Russia didn't have to do much and almost certainly got something in return, with the war. They are talking all the time, directly and through intermediaries. If Russia was signalling it is ready to pull back, there would already be a ceasefire. For any Ukrainian government to say, OK, we are not going to be able to push Russians back so lets give them what they got would now be a political and most likely actual suicide move. 

 

[Gnasher]

2 minutes ago, SasaS said:

You cannot compare the deal for allowing Ukrainian grain to go to the world market, for which Russia didn't have to do much and almost certainly got something in return, with the war. They are talking all the time, directly and through intermediaries. If Russia was signalling it is ready to pull back, there would already be a ceasefire. For any Ukrainian government to say, OK, we are not going to be able to push Russians back so lets give them what they got would now be a political and most likely actual suicide move. 

 

A few bargaining points for a Russian withdrawal would be the west pledging Ukraine won't be allowed join Nato or the EU plus the end of sanctions. 

[SasaS]

12 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

A few bargaining points for a Russian withdrawal would be the west pledging Ukraine won't be allowed join Nato or the EU plus the end of sanctions. 

We are now well beyond this, that is too much of a climb down. 

 

Russia has been actively preparing the annexation of occupied territories for months now. It is clear sanctions (which are BTW, targeted and have been introduced in stages, don't know what you mean by "target sanctions") would bi lifted if they agreed to withdraw (and are not hurting them as much as long as the war chest they have been preparing for years isn't emptied), EU is very, very far away in the future and Nato membership is just an excuse anyway and would probably become irrelevant if Russia withdraws, because Ukraine would end up with a big military fully supported by Nato members which would make it very difficult for Russia to try this again in the future.

 

With this invasion, Russia has lost any chance of being able to again influence political processes in Ukraine for a couple of generations at least.

[Gnasher]

8 minutes ago, SasaS said:

We are now well beyond this, that is too much of a climb down. 

 

Russia has been actively preparing the annexation of occupied territories for months now. It is clear sanctions (which are BTW, targeted and have been introduced in stages, don't know what you mean by "target sanctions") would bi lifted if they agreed to withdraw (and are not hurting them as much as long as the war chest they have been preparing for years isn't emptied), EU is very, very far away in the future and Nato membership is just an excuse anyway and would probably become irrelevant if Russia withdraws, because Ukraine would end up with a big military fully supported by Nato members which would make it very difficult for Russia to try this again in the future.

 

With this invasion, Russia has lost any chance of being able to again influence political processes in Ukraine for a couple of generations at least.

Sanctions vary in form and severity. Obviously the targeting oligarchs etc was just and popular. We've now had six rounds of differing sanctions (although it's hard to keep count) the latest was described by Faisel Islam, the beebs economic correspondent as akin to severe 'economic war' which goes far beyond normal sanctions. The blocking of Russian oil etc has been disastrous for the European economy. The 'economic' sanctions are crippling us as much as them. 

 

Talk of banning Russian nationals from entering the EU is as  ridiculous as banning Russian tennis players, although at least it won't impact us financially. Just another example of scattergun thinking. 

 

If people such as diverse as Henry Kissinger and the ex head of the British army are saying its time to rethink then maybe we are heading down the wrong path..

 

Plus public support for providing Ukraine with unconditional assistance could easily change when times over here get hard, which they soon will. 

 

How do you think this conflict will end? 

[Chairman Meow]

20 hours ago, Section_31 said:

I reckon the Russian economy is booming in much the same way the North Korean one is. As in, not really, but you'll end up with an anti aircraft gun up your arse if you report the wrong figures.

 

I've heard Mook is booking a flight to Moscow as we speak. 

[Strontium]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

A few bargaining points for a Russian withdrawal would be the west pledging Ukraine won't be allowed join Nato or the EU plus the end of sanctions. 

 

Why should Russia be able to dictate what Ukraine does?

[SasaS]

55 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Sanctions vary in form and severity. Obviously the targeting oligarchs etc was just and popular. We've now had six rounds of differing sanctions (although it's hard to keep count) the latest was described by Faisel Islam, the beebs economic correspondent as akin to severe 'economic war' which goes far beyond normal sanctions. The blocking of Russian oil etc has been disastrous for the European economy. The 'economic' sanctions are crippling us as much as them. 

 

Talk of banning Russian nationals from entering the EU is as  ridiculous as banning Russian tennis players, although at least it won't impact us financially. Just another example of scattergun thinking. 

 

If people such as diverse as Henry Kissinger and the ex head of the British army are saying its time to rethink then maybe we are heading down the wrong path..

 

Plus public support for providing Ukraine with unconditional assistance could easily change when times over here get hard, which they soon will. 

 

How do you think this conflict will end? 

I think you are overstating the impact of sanctions on the EU economy and the West in general, US + EU + Anglosphere + Japan and Korea are like 55 times bigger economically than Russia which is a comparative GDP dwarf (hence the China's balancing act). Russian oil is not important, gas is impacting European economies largely because several countries had deals under market price (you can easily identify them by the level of support for Ukraine), plus Russia can affect the supply of some strategic raw materials for a while at least.

 

Economic problems in the West are largely not caused by the Russia's invasion of Ukraine, inflation is the result of Covid helicopter money and years of quantitative easing and overall food prices increases which are affected by various factors. Financial and military assistance provided to Ukraine is miniscule compared to overall economy.

 

Also, there are hundreds of other voices that would profoundly disagree with your general (imagine fighting in the trenches with that defeatist cunt as your CO) you keep quoting or Kissinger or any other opinion in your selection, it is hardly a significant minority let alone majority or a consensus.

 

I don't know how the war would end, it is really an unprecedented situation which is difficult to compare with anything, I am still flabbergasted that Russia decided to invade a country of 44 million people thinking that is the way to go. I really don't understand how people can argue after 6 months of this war that Ukraine should stop resisting because it is impossible to win, USSR which was several times stronger than Russia was ultimately defeated in Afghanistan which was several times weaker than Ukraine, the US lost the war in Vietnam and had to withdraw from Afghanistan accomplishing nothing.

 

What I do know is what it should be done - military support to Ukraine should be increased considerably, plans for joined defence production capabilities of Ukraine and neighbouring countries should be fast-tracked as much as possible so Ukraine becomes much less reliant on costly Western logistics and once it has built an army that can match Russian artillery firepower, with enough armour and solid air defence capabilities and already superior infantry, Russia will be forced to seek political solution or face defeat and political implosion akin to the one it went through in the '90s.

 

A regime change in Moscow would be easier, but there is not much chance of that at the moment. This is an existential struggle for Ukraine, so I don't see how Russia, where vast majority of people may support this war but have absolutely no intention of taking part in it can possibly win it. The problem is, it is an existential struggle for Putin's regime, which painted itself in the corner with this war, and this complicates things.

[Gnasher]

9 minutes ago, SasaS said:

I think you are overstating the impact of sanctions on the EU economy and the West in general, US + EU + Anglosphere + Japan and Korea are like 55 times bigger economically than Russia which is a comparative GDP dwarf (hence the China's balancing act). Russian oil is not important, gas is impacting European economies largely because several countries had deals under market price (you can easily identify them by the level of support for Ukraine), plus Russia can affect the supply of some strategic raw materials for a while at least.

 

Economic problems in the West are largely not caused by the Russia's invasion of Ukraine, inflation is the result of Covid helicopter money and years of quantitative easing and overall food prices increases which are affected by various factors. Financial and military assistance provided to Ukraine is miniscule compared to overall economy.

 

Also, there are hundreds of other voices that would profoundly disagree with your general (imagine fighting in the trenches with that defeatist cunt as your CO) you keep quoting or Kissinger or any other opinion in your selection, it is hardly a significant minority let alone majority or a consensus.

 

I don't know how the war would end, it is really an unprecedented situation which is difficult to compare with anything, I am still flabbergasted that Russia decided to invade a country of 44 million people thinking that is the way to go. I really don't understand how people can argue after 6 months of this war that Ukraine should stop resisting because it is impossible to win, USSR which was several times stronger than Russia was ultimately defeated in Afghanistan which was several times weaker than Ukraine, the US lost the war in Vietnam and had to withdraw from Afghanistan accomplishing nothing.

 

What I do know is what it should be done - military support to Ukraine should be increased considerably, plans for joined defence production capabilities of Ukraine and neighbouring countries should be fast-tracked as much as possible so Ukraine becomes much less reliant on costly Western logistics and once it has built an army that can match Russian artillery firepower, with enough armour and solid air defence capabilities and already superior infantry, Russia will be forced to seek political solution or face defeat and political implosion akin to the one it went through in the '90s.

 

A regime change in Moscow would be easier, but there is not much chance of that at the moment. This is an existential struggle for Ukraine, so I don't see how Russia, where vast majority of people may support this war but have absolutely no intention of taking part in it can possibly win it. The problem is, it is an existential struggle for Putin's regime, which painted itself in the corner with this war, and this complicates things.

A regime change could in Russia could solve it. Suprised Putes hasn't been bumped off tbh. It appears the stories of him being unwell and close to death were unfounded. He could outlast the leaders in the west.

 

I'm not sure you can cause the amount the Yanks have stuck in as insignificant, the longer this goes on its going to become a black hole. Not to mention the Ukrainian economy is obviously fucked and will need massive investment. 

 

As for the calibre of people calling for talks, Kissinger is indeed a cunt of the highest order but he was once a massive political/military strategist for Americans involving themselves in other countries. Another is the former head of the British Army. Our modern day politicians care just fit themselves. Boris Johnson couldn't give a fuck about the shabby treatment afforded to Ukrainian refugees trying to enter Britain. 

 

As for Russia admitting defeat and imploding, maybe, but that could take years, they're a resilient people.

[Gnasher]

30 minutes ago, Strontium said:

 

Why should Russia be able to dictate what Ukraine does?

They shouldn't but their people are getting slaughtered and displaced, they are being propped up by western money and weapons and their economy is close to collapse. So the sooner the Russians fuck off the better.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/ukraine-economy-decline-war/

 

 

[Strontium]

8 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

They shouldn't but their people are getting slaughtered and displaced, they are being propped up by western money and weapons and their economy is close to collapse. So the sooner the Russians fuck off the better.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/ukraine-economy-decline-war/

 

I should think it's up to the Ukrainians whether or not they make any concessions to the Russians. Although if you've paid any attention at all, you'd find it hard to conclude that Russia will be satisfied with a few nebulous assurances over the status of NATO and the EU.

[Gnasher]

9 minutes ago, Strontium said:

 

I should think it's up to the Ukrainians whether or not they make any concessions to the Russians. Although if you've paid any attention at all, you'd find it hard to conclude that Russia will be satisfied with a few nebulous assurances over the status of NATO and the EU.

It is indeed up the Ukrainians just as it's up to us whether we believe its in our interests to keep funding their war effort.

 

As for Russia, offer as little as it takes to make them withdraw yet they can still claim some sort of victory. I believe they call it 'offering your enemy a golden bridge' to retreat over.

[polymerpunkah]

[SasaS]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

A regime change could in Russia could solve it. Suprised Putes hasn't been bumped off tbh. It appears the stories of him being unwell and close to death were unfounded. He could outlast the leaders in the west.

 

I'm not sure you can cause the amount the Yanks have stuck in as insignificant, the longer this goes on its going to become a black hole. Not to mention the Ukrainian economy is obviously fucked and will need massive investment. 

 

As for the calibre of people calling for talks, Kissinger is indeed a cunt of the highest order but he was once a massive political/military strategist for Americans involving themselves in other countries. Another is the former head of the British Army. Our modern day politicians care just fit themselves. Boris Johnson couldn't give a fuck about the shabby treatment afforded to Ukrainian refugees trying to enter Britain. 

 

As for Russia admitting defeat and imploding, maybe, but that could take years, they're a resilient people.

I think with the latest installment the US gave them some 15 billion, a lot of it in equipment, most of what they received from other countries so far has been old equipment which would have been written off.

 

At the same time, Poland is now talking about doubling their defense budget, many other countries will be increasing military spending. Considerably. All that spending due to new reality and threat would actually dwarf the amount needed to help Ukraine  boost its capabilities. I think Poland's annual expenditure alone may be enough to let Russia know there is no way to win this, unless they turn it into a Ukrainian civil war, which they won't be able to do.

 

So it would really make economic sense to help Ukraine defend itself, rather than have 30 countries go on shopping sprees for themselves.

 

[Ne Moe Imya]

11 hours ago, Gnasher said:

It is indeed up the Ukrainians just as it's up to us whether we believe its in our interests to keep funding their war effort.

 

As for Russia, offer as little as it takes to make them withdraw yet they can still claim some sort of victory. I believe they call it 'offering your enemy a golden bridge' to retreat over.

Russia is never going to withdraw unless they lose the war.

 

I know you all can't watch the Russian media but I do, and trust me, the rhetoric has gone so far beyond the pale that there is zero chance of Putin ever agreeing to withdraw their troops. Half of Russia believes (and their television tells them every night) that Ukrainians are Nazi war criminals, torturing schoolchildren for speaking Russian and constructing gas chambers for anyone who was born in the Soviet Union. The other half are too terrified to speak out against this obvious nonsense for fear of imprisonment.

 

If you want Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, there is only one choice - you have to defeat the Russian army on the battlefield. There is no other alternative.

 

There are certain people in history that you simply can not negotiate with in any way, shape or form. They are too amoral and their grasp on power too certain to make them respect anything other than force. Chamberlain discovered this too late with Hitler, and we have all learned it too late with Putin.

[Gnasher]

Shocking if true, 

 

 

 

 

[Vincent Vega]

 

[Gnasher]

5 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

Russia is never going to withdraw unless they lose the war.

 

I know you all can't watch the Russian media but I do, and trust me, the rhetoric has gone so far beyond the pale that there is zero chance of Putin ever agreeing to withdraw their troops. Half of Russia believes (and their television tells them every night) that Ukrainians are Nazi war criminals, torturing schoolchildren for speaking Russian and constructing gas chambers for anyone who was born in the Soviet Union. The other half are too terrified to speak out against this obvious nonsense for fear of imprisonment.

 

If you want Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, there is only one choice - you have to defeat the Russian army on the battlefield. There is no other alternative.

 

There are certain people in history that you simply can not negotiate with in any way, shape or form. They are too amoral and their grasp on power too certain to make them respect anything other than force. Chamberlain discovered this too late with Hitler, and we have all learned it too late with Putin.

I don't doubt the Russian media propaganda, you've lived there and I can only imagine the shit they're pumping out to justify the invasion. 

 

I'm not sure the Chamberlain quips are fair tbh. Russia pose little to zero threat to the rest of Europe, they would struggle to make it to Poland. At the end of world war two certain parts of the world had to except some uncomfortable decisions and innocent peoples land was redrawn. How many people cared about the Donbass region of Ukraine a year ago? Zelenskys talking about the war not being over till they take back Crimea, so that's never. Here's Gorbachev's veiw on Crimea and the Donbass. Gorbachev's mother was Ukrainian. His stance is not that dissimilar to Putins.

 

 

 

We're economically and environmentally on our way to hell in a hand cart. The German PM said they are preparing for civil unrest this winter, they are being forced to return to coal at a time when a third of Pakistan is under water due to climate change. People are already protesting.

 

The situation is economically and environmentally dire. If the only way to end this war is pushing Russia completely out of Ukraine and defeating them by force then good luck. How long would this take if it was achievable? The former head of the British army said this week its unlikely to be achievable anyway. 

 

We're facing a scenario of care homes, pubs, cafes, small businesses closing this winter. The poorest unable to feed themselves and keep themselves warm. The people of Africa are right up against the wall and millions are facing starvation although hopefully the release of grain averts a humanitarian disaster. I except SaaS's opinion our perilous economic situation is not solely due to the war with Russia, but its certainly a major factor. We've seen Johnson being greeted like a Ukrainian hero whilst telling British people to buckle up and be prepared to suffer. Front page today's Guardian. Let's not forget arms manufacturers and shareholders are making fortunes,

 

 

 

 

 

I can't see a way our other than talks, a Russian coup or an assassin on Putin forcing regime change. I think pushing them out by force is achievable but could take years, the people in the West and havn't got the time.

 

 

 

 

[DJLJ]

10 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I don't doubt the Russian media propaganda, you've lived there and I can only imagine the shit they're pumping out to justify the invasion. 

 

I'm not sure the Chamberlain quips are fair tbh. Russia pose little to zero threat to the rest of Europe, they would struggle to make it to Poland. At the end of world war two certain parts of the world had to except some uncomfortable decisions and innocent peoples land was redrawn. How many people cared about the Donbass region of Ukraine a year ago? Zelenskys talking about the war not being over till they take back Crimea, so that's never. Here's Gorbachev's veiw on Crimea and the Donbass. Gorbachev's mother was Ukrainian. His stance is not that dissimilar to Putins.

  

 

 

We're economically and environmentally on our way to hell in a hand cart. The German PM said they are preparing for civil unrest this winter, they are being forced to return to coal at a time when a third of Pakistan is under water due to climate change. People are already protesting.

 

The situation is economically and environmentally dire. If the only way to end this war is pushing Russia completely out of Ukraine and defeating them by force then good luck. How long would this take if it was achievable? The former head of the British army said this week its unlikely to be achievable anyway. 

 

We're facing a scenario of care homes, pubs, cafes, small businesses closing this winter. The poorest unable to feed themselves and keep themselves warm. The people of Africa are right up against the wall and millions are facing starvation although hopefully the release of grain averts a humanitarian disaster. I except SaaS's opinion our perilous economic situation is not solely due to the war with Russia, but its certainly a major factor. We've seen Johnson being greeted like a Ukrainian hero whilst telling British people to buckle up and be prepared to suffer. 

 

I can't see a way our other than talks, a Russian coup or an assassin on Putin forcing regime change. I think pushing them out by force is achievable but could take years, the people in the West and havn't got the time.

 

 

 

 

Say that to the Baltic states...

[DJLJ]

12 minutes ago, Vincent Vega said:

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chairman-russian-oil-producer-lukoil-dies-after-falling-hospital-window-source-2022-09-01/

 

Says the vice chairman is also dead....

[Rico1304]

3 minutes ago, DJLJ said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chairman-russian-oil-producer-lukoil-dies-after-falling-hospital-window-source-2022-09-01/

 

Says the vice chairman is also dead....

Did he try and catch him? 

[Section_31]

Risky business.

 

The body of millionaire Novatek former manager Sergei Protosenya was found alongside his wife and daughter at a Spanish villa in April

A former vice-president of Gazprombank, Vladislav Avayev, was found dead with his wife and daughter in their Moscow flat, also in April

In May, a former Lukoil tycoon Alexander Subbotin died of heart failure, reportedly after seeking alternative treatment from a shaman.

[Gnasher]

Cringe,

 

 

 

 

[Rico1304]

On 01/09/2022 at 11:20, Section_31 said:

Risky business.

 

The body of millionaire Novatek former manager Sergei Protosenya was found alongside his wife and daughter at a Spanish villa in April

A former vice-president of Gazprombank, Vladislav Avayev, was found dead with his wife and daughter in their Moscow flat, also in April

In May, a former Lukoil tycoon Alexander Subbotin died of heart failure, reportedly after seeking alternative treatment from a shaman.

My prime suspects are NATO. 

[SasaS]

Missed Tom's update yesterday,

 

I’m ‘sitting‘ here on quite a lots of data that piled over the last two days. It’s not that there’s a lot in terms of ‘facts’: the security control is so tight — and then on both sides — that it’s next to impossible to verify anything at all. That said, think it’s about the time to ‘dare’ and attempt reconstructing what’s going on in Kherson Oblast in particular.

 

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-2-3-september-2022-3adaa91fb95b

 

TLDR - he thought it was just opportunistic raids, but now believes the offensive is coming along quite nicely, after doing some web-psychoanalysis of Russian sources. 

 

There are also a couple of interesting more general ones from past week, for the fans, in case you missed them.