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ZonkoVille77

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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Seems not, must be about the only race where I looked through the form of every single runner and then ended up without even one horse at longer odds I liked.

 

Got a shortlist of Don Cossack, Ma Filleule and John Spirit. Which, admittedly, isn't particularly helpful.

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Okay, most of these still have multiple entries. Most of the selections in the non Champ races are because the horses fit the profile of trends.

 

In chronological order -

 

Day 1

 

Supreme - Bentelimar 20/1 (Has entries in three other races, County Hurdle at 20s also, and two others at 33s).

Handicap Chase (3rd race of Day 1) - Grand Vision 16/1 (Has entries in the Kim Muir at 16s, and National Hunt Chase at 25s).

Champion Hurdle - Arctic Fire 14/1 (Value possibly already eaten up here, think he has a great chance of placing though).

Mare's Hurdle - Bitofapuzzle 16/1. Annie Power probably wins this, but I like Bitofapuzzle at 16s (Also entered in the potato race at 20s)

National Hunt Chase - Vroum Vroum Mag 12/1 (Entered in RSA and JLT both at 16s).

Novice Handicap Chase - Golden Hoof 25/1. Horizontal Speed 16/1.

 

Day 2

 

RSA - If In Doubt 20/1 (May skip the festival and race the day after it finishes).

Coral Cup - Fuck me this race took some time to go through. They had over 200 declared runners at one point. Noble Endeavor 20/1 (Also entered in the Martin Pipe Hurdle at 16s *and I like him whichever race he enters*). Ordo Ab Chao also at 20s, but probably more likely to end up in the potato race or the Neptune.

Fred Winter - Beatabout The Bush 25/1 (Also in the Martin Pipe at 33s).

Weatherby Champion Bumper - Stone Hard 16/1

 

Day 3

 

Pertemps - Uncle Jimmy 33/1

Kim Muir - Vintage Star 20/1 (Also entered in the Handicap Chase on Day 1, and at Aintree so may miss the festival). Smiles for Miles 25/1 (Also in the National Hunt chase at 33s).

 

Day 4

 

Albert Bartlett - Tea For Two 25/1 (Also in Coral Cup and Neptune)

Martin Pipe - Ttebbob 33/1 (Also in Coral Cup at the same price). Also Noble Endeavor, at 16s, that I mentioned earlier.

Grand Annual - Turn Over Sivola 25/1 (Entered in the Arkle at 66/1). Rawnaq 20/1 (Also in the Handicap Chase on Day 3 at 25s, the one race I won't be betting on).

 

All other horses I like either aren't at a particularly big price or are so likely to go in other races that it wasn't worth listing them.

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Fuck about. Have you got a job? That's impressive work if you have.

 

I did about half n hour last night and only came up with Monbeg dude in the Kim Muir @20/1 with Laddies. He's also entered for summit on the Tuesday.

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I work from home, so if I want some time off, well, I'll have some.

 

I reckon it probably took me on average about 30 to 45 minutes per race, less for Champ races (I know what I'm betting on), and a bit more for the Coral Cup and that cunting race on Thursday that I couldn't find anything for.

 

It's interesting that all the short price fancies are on the first day. Going to make or break a lot of festivals for punters and bookies.

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I haven't got much time to sit down and study for this so I will be staking a hell of a lot of cash based on tips from this thread.

 

That's how much faith I have in the GF.

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Haha, I accept no responsibility if you decide to bet on any of mine. Most of those picks of mine will be small e/w bets. The big bets will be doubles/trebles/4 folds. Most on the first day.

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We should put our skills to the test and do a Forum lucky 15 or acca, whatcha reckon?

 

 

I'd put forward Nichols Canyon in the Neptune @4/1

 

I'm up for that. Is Nichols Canyon deffo going for the Neptune? Because he's about 7s for the Supreme as well.

 

Anyway, I'll go Apache Stronghold (11/2) for the JLT, he is still entered in the RSA as well though.

 

I'm guessing we're all swerving stuff like putting up Un De Sceaux for this L15.

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Yeah, no point doing odds on shouts. I tried to be slightly daring with Nichols Canyon. I'm guessing he'll run in the Neptune to avoid Douvan?

 

Ok so far we've got

 

Nichols Canyon - Neptune

Apache Stronghold - JLT

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If you back at Cheltenham back each way. Also the long odds shots barely come in. Those in the 8/1 to 16/1 price range seem to be more prominent.

I have some stats knocking about that I will try to find and link to here when i remember.

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Final picks for Cheltenham, although one or two probably won't run, and I might bin a couple if the ground is much different to Good to Soft (which I doubt). Got two in most. Anything above 6/1-7/1 ish will probably be e/w. Anything below about 5/2 probably in an accumulator. The second Supreme and Arkle picks are partly to take advantage of the PP offer.

 

Supreme - Douvan/Bentelimar

Arkle - Un De Sceaux/Josses Hill 

Handicap Chase - Ned Stark/Grand Vision

Champion Hurdle - Faugheen/Jezki

Mares Hurdle - Annie Power/Caroles Spirit

National Hunt Chase - Don Poli/The Young Master

Handicap Chase - Generous Ransom/Caesar Milan

 

Neptune - Nichols Canyon/Shaneshill

RSA - Kings Palace/Southfield Theatre

Coral Cup - Arbre De Vie/Noble Endeavor/Ordo Ab Chao

Queen Mother - Champagne Fever/Mr Mole

Cross Country - Sire Collonges

Fred Winter - Sebastian Beach/Beatabout The Bush

Champion Bumper - Bordini/Stone Hard

 

JLT - Vautour/Gitane Du Berlais/Irish Saint

Pertemps - Bygones Sovereign/Call The Cops/Uncle Jimmy

Ryanair - Don Cossack/Johns Spirit

World Hurdle - Saphir Du Rheu/Whisper

Kim Muir - Gevrey Chambertin/Corrin Wood

 

Triumph - Petite Parisienne/Hargam

County Hurdle - Daneking/Quick Jack

Albert Bartlett - No More Heroes/Tea For Two

Gold Cup - Silviniaco Conti/Road To Riches

Fox Hunters - Current Event

Martin Pipe - Roi Des Francs/Ttebbob

Grand Annual - Rawnaq/Turn Over Sivola

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Scrap my JLT pick for the L15, JC. Ruby is far too keen on Vautour for me to put Apache Stronghold up at the price he is. I'll go Southfield Theatre in the RSA instead (9/1).

 

Nichols Canyon - Neptune
Southfield Theatre - RSA 

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I follow this lads blogs a little bit and he picks up some good stuff through his stats(not foolproof of course) but worth a read.

 

One speaking about Hurdles and another about the chases.

 

http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/cheltenham-2015-handicap-hurdles-inc-2-micro-angles/

 

http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/cheltenham-handicap-chases/

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My bets so far, need a few to come in as I'm going on the Thursday and I'm skint already.

 

Champion hurdle - Faugheen 2/1

Chaps Novice chase - Keltus 25/1 ew / Rum & Butter ew 33/1 ew

Ultima - pendra 17/1

 

Neptune - Beast of burden 47/1

Champion bumper - An Quart de tour 16/1 ew

Coral cup - Hammersly lake 33/1 ew

RSA - Apache jack 25/1 ew

 

Kim Muir - Monbeg dude 20/1 ew

Ryanair - Hidden cyclone 16/1 ew

Pertemps - Sybarite 25/1 / Bygones sovereign 20/1 ew

World hurdle - un temps pour tout 25/1 ew

 

Gold Cup - Sil Conti 6/1 / Carlingford Lough 22/1

 

Acca's

 

The Mullins 4 on the Tuesday at just over 16/1

Sapphire de rheu & Carlingford lough (pricewise double)

Un de Sceaux/Annie p/Pitt zig

Douvan/U.D.S/Faugheen/Annie/Peace & co - 40/1

Annie p/Peace & co/Sil conti - 24/1

Faugheen/ Saphire de rheu - 16/1

Faugheen/ Conti - 10/1

Faugheen/Kings palace 14/1

U.D.S/Annie/Conti 13/1

Sprinter sacre/Conti - 20/1

Douvan/U.D.S/Faugheen/Annie/Don Poli - 80/1

U.D.S/Faugheen/Vatour - 14/1

Douvan/Nichols canyon/Vatour/Peace & co - 160/1

Douvan/U.D.S/Annie/Don Poli/Peace & co - 115/1

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