Russia v Ukraine

[M_B]

Russia should have no trouble winning then with its booming economy and superior armed forces.

[TheHowieLama]

1 minute ago, M_B said:

Russia should have no trouble winning then with its booming economy and superior armed forces.

They are fighting against middle aged women - literally.

[SasaS]

Germany to lead the air defense initiative of seriously looking for "another systems that can be immediately delivered to Ukraine". Ukraine-NATO council meeting convened for Friday about air defense.

 

Herding cats.

 

Months after they all publicly said Ukraine would be empty by April-May.

[Gnasher]

Grim article in the Kyiv independent here. 

 

 

 

 

 

[SasaS]

Johnson's bills published, vote on Saturday.

[TheSire]

13 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

 

 

Its practically all just the military industry though. They're producing a lot of weapons and ammo etc.

[TheSire]

10 hours ago, Section_31 said:

Grim this

 

Russian casualties are rising because of their tactics it would seem, essentially making them go 'over the top' so they can flush out enemy positions for artillery, some Enemy at the Gates-style shit.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-soldiers-death-toll-50-000-ukraine-b2530037.html

 

Yep. Standard soviet doctrine. The meat grinder indeed.

[TheSire]

7 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

 I've said, we haven't played very smart. The sanctions haven't worked, your bold bits just understate it. 

 

 

The bold parts do not confirm them though they may be understated. That is why I asked if you had read it.

 

Please stop using "we" in this instance. Other G7 countries have not done similar and the state of the economy in the UK is very much to do with the UK.

It's the war with Russia causing all of our problems!

[TheSire]

6 hours ago, Gnasher said:

Back on topic. Ukraine has plenty of men, (according to idiot above) latest...

 

 

Over half a million have gone abroad in the past two years. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/

 

 

 

 

I fucking hate ukraine. 

[TheSire]

6 hours ago, M_B said:

Russia should have no trouble winning then with its booming economy and superior armed forces.

Should have no rubles. 

[Gnasher]

1 hour ago, TheSire said:

Its practically all just the military industry though. They're producing a lot of weapons and ammo etc.

 

A lot of it is. A lot of it is we've made them become more self sufficient. We've pushed them into a corner which has brought them closer to China (again not very smart in the long term on our part) Brics is getting larger. More money is staying in local economy  More home grown businesses have taken the place of the Western ones which have left. The people also have a history of resilience (as do the Ukrainians) the war effort is undoubtedly a factor but as the article says their economy is predicted to stay strong till the end of the decade. 

 

In other economic news, for what it's worth, the IMF has put four countries on alert for overspending. America, Britain, Italy and China. China have spent billions on infrastructure and new rail networks so at least they've something to show for it. I thought Canada and Germany were also on that IMF list but it must've been a different article unless I'm mistaken. All four countries have their own currency so can print their own money and borrow off themselves bar Italy who are at a disadvantage as they are tied to the Euro. 

 

 

 

 

[Gnasher]

7 hours ago, M_B said:

Russia should have no trouble winning then with its booming economy and superior armed forces.

 

Russia is going to win jack shit. Unfortunately neither are Ukraine. Its time to face facts and stop more innocents losing their lives. 

[SasaS]

Russia's economy (and its war effort) is almost entirely dependent on the price of oil.

[Gnasher]

In 2022 Russian oil and gas accounted for approximately 40% of total revenue, today that figure is approx 24%  

[TheHowieLama]

MOSCOW, Jan 11 2024 (Reuters) - Proceeds from oil and gas sales for Russia's federal budget fell by about 24% to 8.822 trillion roubles ($99.4 billion) last year, finance ministry data showed on Thursday, following weaker oil prices and reduced gas sales to Europe.

The government, however, has said it expected revenues to recover to 11.5 trillion roubles in 2024 as Russia has managed to redirect oil it used to sell to Europe to China and India.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last month Europe's share of Russia's crude exports has fallen to only about 4-5% from about 40-45%.

Western sanctions, such as price caps and an embargo on seaborne oil exports, as well as the closure of the Nord Stream gas pipelines to Europe, which were blown up in September 2022, have reduced Russia's energy earnings.

The sanctions have also had the impact of increasing costs for Russian exporters, traders have said.

In December, oil and gas revenues declined to 650.5 billion roubles from 961.7 billion roubles in November, Thursday's finance ministry figures shows.

 

For 2023 as a whole, the Russian government had budgeted for federal revenue of 8.939 trillion roubles from oil and gas sales, or more than 34% of total budget revenue, down from 11.586 trillion roubles in 2022, when oil prices were higher.

 

 

 

Russia's annual oil and gas revenues fell to Rb8.822 trillion ($99.34 billion) in 2023, down Rb2.746 trillion on the year and the lowest since 2020, according to a Jan. 11 report published by Russia's finance ministry.

The ministry said December's oil and gas revenues were Rb199.9 billion below expectations because of "adjustment to tax legislation" and the "deviation of physical volumes from forecasted values."

Russia cut oil production and export volumes throughout 2023 amid a wider OPEC+ strategy to buoy global oil prices.

Russia's 2023 oil and gas revenues have taken a hit following the implementation of Western sanctions on Russian energy resources, including a $60/b price cap on Russian oil introduced by G7 nations in December 2022.

 

In Q4 2023 Urals crude prices came increasingly under pressure as the US, UK and EU all stepped up their enforcement of the price cap.

"US authorities have been more active against operators clearly involved [in circumvention], adding pressure on any such movement in future," said Fotios Katsoulas, lead tanker analyst at S&P Global.

G7-linked tanker operators continued to shy away from Russian crude trade, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data showed, amid tighter sanction enforcement from Western authorities to counter circumvention.

 

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/011124-russias-2023-oil-and-gas-revenues-falls-to-three-year-low

[Ne Moe Imya]

4 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

Russia is going to win jack shit. Unfortunately neither are Ukraine. Its time to face facts and stop more innocents losing their lives. 

 

How, precisely, do you propose that we 'stop more innocents losing their lives?'

 

Maybe you missed this, but the world tried the "give Putin the portion of Ukraine he's already conquered in order to make peace" thing in Minsk in 2014.

 

The deal was this - Putin, you (and your proxies) get to keep Crimea and a portion of the Donbass. In exchange, both parties agree to stop shelling each other. Sounds like they "faced facts to stop more innocents from losing their lives," right?

 

It lasted 7 months. Just enough time for Putin to reconstitute his army and launch another offensive in January 2015. Putin captured some more territory and Ukraine, desperate to "stop more innocents losing their lives," agreed to peace AGAIN. This was known as "Minsk 2," and was ratified by both parties in February 2015.

 

Putin's proxies then declared that "the peace agreement doesn't apply to this particular piece of the frontline" and went on an assault again. Ukraine responded, not with military action but by passing a law that gave the Donbass special political status with more independence, as Putin claimed he had wanted.

 

So Russia responded by moving in more heavy artillery and killing 430 Ukrainian soldiers. And then in March 2016 the Russian Foreign Minister announced that Russia was "not a party to the Minsk 2 agreement" and then a few years later, after a massive Russian campaign to build loyalty in Ukraine and a huge military buildup, they carried out the full-scale invasion of Feb 2022.

 

I am utterly mystified by anyone whose response to the above facts (which no one, including the Russians, dispute) is "you know what we should do? Give Putin what he wants to 'stop innocents losing their lives.'"

 

Giving Putin what he wants (a negotiated settlement that allows him to keep control of the Ukrainian territory he has invaded) is precisely what will lead to more innocents losing their lives, you absolute cretin.

[Red Phoenix]

An update on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant :

 

 

IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

[Gnasher]

2 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

 

How, precisely, do you propose that we 'stop more innocents losing their lives?'

 

Maybe you missed this, but the world tried the "give Putin the portion of Ukraine he's already conquered in order to make peace" thing in Minsk in 2014.

 

The deal was this - Putin, you (and your proxies) get to keep Crimea and a portion of the Donbass. In exchange, both parties agree to stop shelling each other. Sounds like they "faced facts to stop more innocents from losing their lives," right?

 

It lasted 7 months. Just enough time for Putin to reconstitute his army and launch another offensive in January 2015. Putin captured some more territory and Ukraine, desperate to "stop more innocents losing their lives," agreed to peace AGAIN. This was known as "Minsk 2," and was ratified by both parties in February 2015.

 

Putin's proxies then declared that "the peace agreement doesn't apply to this particular piece of the frontline" and went on an assault again. Ukraine responded, not with military action but by passing a law that gave the Donbass special political status with more independence, as Putin claimed he had wanted.

 

So Russia responded by moving in more heavy artillery and killing 430 Ukrainian soldiers. And then in March 2016 the Russian Foreign Minister announced that Russia was "not a party to the Minsk 2 agreement" and then a few years later, after a massive Russian campaign to build loyalty in Ukraine and a huge military buildup, they carried out the full-scale invasion of Feb 2022.

 

I am utterly mystified by anyone whose response to the above facts (which no one, including the Russians, dispute) is "you know what we should do? Give Putin what he wants to 'stop innocents losing their lives.'"

 

Giving Putin what he wants (a negotiated settlement that allows him to keep control of the Ukrainian territory he has invaded) is precisely what will lead to more innocents losing their lives, you absolute cretin.

 

You choose not read the words written but the words you want to read. You cannot reason in good faith. I gave up with your bullshit after the "your proxies" line. 

[Gnasher]

8 hours ago, TheSire said:

It's the war with Russia causing all of our problems!

 

It's by no means causing all our problems but it's a huge factor. The blowing up of Nordstream was particularly reckless. 

[TheSire]

5 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

 

How, precisely, do you propose that we 'stop more innocents losing their lives?'

 

Maybe you missed this, but the world tried the "give Putin the portion of Ukraine he's already conquered in order to make peace" thing in Minsk in 2014.

 

The deal was this - Putin, you (and your proxies) get to keep Crimea and a portion of the Donbass. In exchange, both parties agree to stop shelling each other. Sounds like they "faced facts to stop more innocents from losing their lives," right?

 

It lasted 7 months. Just enough time for Putin to reconstitute his army and launch another offensive in January 2015. Putin captured some more territory and Ukraine, desperate to "stop more innocents losing their lives," agreed to peace AGAIN. This was known as "Minsk 2," and was ratified by both parties in February 2015.

 

Putin's proxies then declared that "the peace agreement doesn't apply to this particular piece of the frontline" and went on an assault again. Ukraine responded, not with military action but by passing a law that gave the Donbass special political status with more independence, as Putin claimed he had wanted.

 

So Russia responded by moving in more heavy artillery and killing 430 Ukrainian soldiers. And then in March 2016 the Russian Foreign Minister announced that Russia was "not a party to the Minsk 2 agreement" and then a few years later, after a massive Russian campaign to build loyalty in Ukraine and a huge military buildup, they carried out the full-scale invasion of Feb 2022.

 

I am utterly mystified by anyone whose response to the above facts (which no one, including the Russians, dispute) is "you know what we should do? Give Putin what he wants to 'stop innocents losing their lives.'"

 

Giving Putin what he wants (a negotiated settlement that allows him to keep control of the Ukrainian territory he has invaded) is precisely what will lead to more innocents losing their lives, you absolute cretin.

Who gives a fuck about their lives? Our bills have gone up!

[SasaS]

Our of curiosity, how much gas was UK importing from Russia through Nordstream? I seem to recall reading UK was among the countries least reliant on Russia imports overall.

[Gnasher]

15 minutes ago, TheSire said:

Who gives a fuck about their lives? Our bills have gone up!

 

You might not be so flippant if it was a member of your family who died through hypothermia and/or the effects of the cost of living crisis. Of course it doesn't effect those who have the means to ride out the increased outlay. 

 

 

It's perfectly reasonable for people who are now realising it was a mistake to get swept away in hyperbole who now ask sober questions on our strategy towards this war. It doesn't make them KGB agents. Unless you still think like a fourteen year old schoolkid. I hardly think the likes of such luminaries as the Pope are working for Russian intelligence. I think he's wrong on UKraine but it doesn't make him a spy. Although he'd be called worse than that if he shared his views on this thread. 

 

 

Anyway I'm off out so Insert any glib stupid comments below. 

[Gnasher]

23 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Our of curiosity, how much gas was UK importing from Russia through Nordstream? I seem to recall reading UK was among the countries least reliant on Russia imports overall.

 

If that's directed at me and you're not going to throw around the same old tired jibes because an article upsets I will reply. The answer to your question is I don't know. I think Germany easily lost most as they were heavily reliant on the Ruskies for energy. I haven't got the figures to hand as on phone. Its probably the reason the German economy is doing as badly as ours. Now try to park your pomposity at the gate. 

 

[Gnasher]

40 minutes ago, TheSire said:

Who gives a fuck about their lives? Our bills have gone up!

 

The 650,000 plus Ukrainians who've ducked out of fighting? Do they give a fuck? 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/

 

 

 

 

 

[SasaS]

2 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

If that's directed at me and you're not going to throw around the same old tired jibes because an article upsets you. The answer to your question is I don't know. I think Germany easily lost most as they were heavily reliant on the Ruskies for energy. I haven't got the figures to hand as on phone. Its probably the reason the German economy is doing as badly as ours. 

 

 

Since you ask, it wasn't, I didn't think you would know.

 

And speaking of old tired jibes etc., you should get a license for this complete lack of self-awareness, because it's really a lethal weapon.