Captain Willard

When you say the "threat of cheap external producers" you mean the threat of cheaper food for the European population. As shown by the table, we have over paid for food for 30 years and beef/chicken prices are still artificially high in Europe compared to the rest of the world. Poorer people pay a higher % of their income on food so are disproportionately affected by a policy that deliberately inflates food prices by imposing tariffs. There seems to be a general group think in this thread that says EU = good and Torys = bad and hence any Tory policy that is not in line with the EU must be opposed without any further thought. I repeat my earlier assertion, how can you justify a policy that increases food prices for consumers whilst enriching millionaire land owners ?

I am reposting this as it the key to my criticism of the CAP and the EU. Table 1 shows that every European over 30 has spent all of their adult lives overpaying for food compared to the rest of the world because of the CAP, whilst the value of farming land has shot up making most land owners millionaires (table 2). Now that we have left the CAP, the payment system is being reformed and one of the key changes is to reduce payments > £150,000 by 70%. This is referenced here in appendix D. The Path to Sustainable Farming: An Agricultural Transition Plan 2021 to 2024 (publishing.service.gov.uk). It is a straight lie to say payments to large land owners are being increased. In essence, we have a European policy that has artificially increased food prices for the European working class for 30 years whilst enriching owners of capital and now a Tory Government is reversing that. These changes are being opposed by people who claim to be left wing. I am genuinely bemused.

It’s a link to the ONS website. Look at the blue line in figure 1 for UK to EU exports from 2019 to date. My basic question remains; given where we are now with trade (as per figure 1) what would be the benefit of rejoining the EU ?

This is from the ONS. Maybe you know better : “Exports of goods to the EU, excluding precious metals, were above pre-EU exit levels in May and June 2021; rising £1.2 billion (9.1%) to £14.1 billion in May 2021, followed by a further £0.2 billion (1.2%) to £14.3 billion in June 2021”

I genuinely don’t know how you would frame the arguments for rejoining. Trade with the EU now exceeds pre brexit levels, we are out of the mass financial scam of the CAP and wages are rising in a lot of sectors. What are you offering to the electorate as a reason for rejoining the EU - roaming charges ?

I don’t think that works as an analogy. There wasn’t a systematic shortage of fuel, there was an a symptomatic short term surge in demand caused by hysterical media headlines. Once people filled their tanks, the unusual surge in demand subsidised and supply/demand rebalanced. In your desert analogy, the supply/demand imbalance persists indefinitely whereas this lasted for days.

Well I disagree. There was no fundamental shortage of fuel, just a disruption in the supply chain to a small % of forecourts. The media picked up on this, the public panicked and rushed to fill 1/2 empty tanks and hence the problems. If everyone had behaved normally there wouldn’t have been a shortage which is why it has largely finished. We’ve been here before with toilet rolls, pasta and if you are as old as me you may remember sugar in the 1970s. Media induced panic buying causing shortages and hence more panic is a real phenomenon.

Well the petrol shortage was purely a short term psychological phenomenon and seems to be over and I think brexit related food shortages have been massively exaggerated by the media but you’re right about roaming charges. That’s probably not going to tip the vote though, cheaper roaming charges for 2 weeks in Magaluff.

They are the 3 basic tenets of the EU. We couldn't rejoin without agreeing to all 3.

This is a genuine question, if the EU said tomorrow we will cancel Brexit and you can rejoin provided that the UK Restore free movement of labour (with the knock on effect on wages) Restore tariffs/taxes on non EU imports (including food) Restore the CAP (with payments to millionaire farmers) How many of the UK would actually say yes ?

It’s on the ONS website

Exports to the EU are now above pre Brexit levels according to the ONS. Exports of goods to the EU, excluding precious metals, were above pre-EU exit levels in May and June 2021; rising £1.2 billion (9.1%) to £14.1 billion in May 2021, followed by a further £0.2 billion (1.2%) to £14.3 billion in June 2021.

I don’t think you’re a man hater, you seem pretty sound and I suspect this is a tough place to post as a woman. Anyway I think you’re right, the media pick which stories to run with and the public react accordingly. The Sarah everet murder was awful, shocking and thankfully very rare which is why it got so much attention. The Sarah Hussain death was ambiguous (maybe suicide) but if it was a domestic killing then depressingly common.

Yes your'e right, she did plead not guilty. The original investigation started in 2017 so it will be 5 years before it comes to trial. Reading what is in the public domain, I don't think they have got much more than expert opinions on statistics and probabilities, more deaths than could be reasonably expected for an ante natal unit and she was always on duty when they happened. The CPS obviously think they have a case but unless they have got something much more substantial up their sleeve than maths, I think it will be pretty unlikely she will get convicted.

My point was the level of public outrage attached to murders is inconsistent and mostly amplified by the press. Take 2 cases; Sarah Everet - horrible case which attracted loads of publicity. sarah Hussain - found on fire in a street in Bury in July. Unclear if it was suicide or murder but she told the paramedics it was murder. 3 men released on bail ! Barely a mention in the national press and the inquest adjourned to February 2022.

In response to the shag, marry or avoid question I’m thinking the latter.

That bloke with the dreadlocks in the Cult T shirt needed to just say no a long time ago.

No agenda, violence against women is obviously much higher and unacceptable but when we encounter what the CPS think is a female mass murderer of children, the public outrage seems surprisingly muted. My point was that public outage to murders is inconsistent and unpredictable. Without googling, I couldn’t name one of those kids.

I’ve found this “Ultimately, these results suggest that, despite mean-level differences between men and women, psychopathy operates in a relatively consistent manner across gender.” I can’t find anywhere that says 2 : 1 - please provide a source

Oh ok, sorry. No they go straight in via your arse. It’s a surprisingly long way in that’s for sure.

Well its an observable phenomenon that the disgust emotion is suppressed if the subject is aroused.

Free solo about climbing without ropes or safety harnesses. Its almost unwatchable at times. This is an actual scene.

I think it is fair to assume that, looking the reaction to the case so far, this case wont get a lot of public outrage even though she may have killed 8 children and may have tried to kill another 5. There probably won't be a public vigil, politicians demanding changes, rushed policies etc. There's a whole PHD to be written on why some murders cause a greater public reaction than others. In this case, I suspect the evidence is going to be mainly circumstantial and statistical so it won't be a binary case by any means and harder to get outraged by probabilities. She may well walk free.

I'll give you a clue, it's not your ear.

In other news, Lucy Letbie appeared in Liverpoool court today accused of 8 murders and 5 attempted murders. Half the GF still would though.