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SasaS

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  1. Alexi's statement. "Today’s decision will maintain Greece’s financial stability and provide recovery potential. However, as we knew beforehand, the agreement will be difficult to implement. The measures include those that Parliament has voted on. Measures that will inevitably create recessionary trends. However, I am hopeful that the growth package of 35 billion euro that we achieved, debt restructuring, as well as securing funding for the next three years will create market confidence, so that investors realize that fears of a Grexit are a thing of the past—thereby fueling investment, which will offset any recessionary trends." http://www.primeminister.gov.gr/english/2015/07/13/prime-minister-alexis-tsipras-statement-following-the-conclusion-of-the-eurozone-summit/
  2. Or put the title into Google, if mostly works with FT web content Greece’s brutal creditors have demolished the eurozone project
  3. Stripped of ambitions for a political and economic union, the bloc changes into a utilitarian project Greece’s brutal creditors have demolished the eurozone projectAfew things that many of us took for granted, and that some of us believed in, ended in a single weekend. By forcing Alexis Tsipras into a humiliating defeat, Greece’s creditors have done a lot more than bring about regime change in Greece or endanger its relations with the eurozone. They have destroyed the eurozone as we know it and demolished the idea of a monetary union as a step towards a democratic political union. In doing so they reverted to the nationalist European power struggles of the 19th and early 20th century. They demoted the eurozone into a toxic fixed exchange-rate system, with a shared single currency, run in the interests of Germany, held together by the threat of absolute destitution for those who challenge the prevailing order. The best thing that can be said of the weekend is the brutal honesty of those perpetrating this regime change. But it was not just the brutality that stood out, nor even the total capitulation of Greece. The material shift is that Germany has formally proposed an exit mechanism. On Saturday, Wolfgang Schäuble, finance minister, insisted on a time-limited exit — a “timeout” as he called it. I have heard quite a few crazy proposals in my time, and this one is right up there. A member state pushed for the expulsion of another. This was the real coup over the weekend: regime change in the eurozone. The fact that a formal Grexit may have been avoided for the moment is immaterial. Grexit will be back on the table when you have the slightest political accident — and there are still many things that could go wrong, both in Greece and in other eurozone parliaments. Any other country that in future might challenge German economic orthodoxy will face similar problems. This brings us back to a more toxic version of the old exchange-rate mechanism of the 1990s that left countries trapped in a system run primarily for the benefit of Germany, which led to the exit of the British pound and the temporary departure of the Italian lira. What was left was a coalition of countries willing to adjust their economies to Germany’s. Britain had to leave because it was not. What should the Greeks do now? Forget for a moment the economic debate of the last few months, over issues such as the impact of austerity or economic reforms on growth, and ask yourself this simple question: do you really think that an economic reform programme, for which a government has no political mandate, which has been explicitly rejected in a referendum, that has been forced through by sheer political blackmail, can conceivably work? The implications for the rest of the eurozone are at least as troubling. We will soon be asking ourselves whether this new eurozone, in which the strong push around the weak, can be sustainable. Previously, the strongest argument against any forecasts of break-up has been the strong political commitment of all its members. If you ask Italians why they are in the eurozone, few have ever pointed to the economic benefits. They wanted to be part of the most ambitious project of European integration undertaken so far. We will soon be asking ourselves whether this new eurozone, in which the strong push around the weak, can be sustainable But if you take away the political aspiration, you may end up with a different judgment. From a pure economic point of view, we know that the euro has worked well for Germany. It worked moderately well for The Netherlands and Austria, although it produced quite a degree of financial instability in both. But for Italy, it has been an unmitigated economic disaster. The country has seen virtually no productivity growth since the start of the euro in 1999. If you want to blame the lack of structural reforms, then you have to explain how Italy managed decent growth rates before 1999. Can we be sure that a majority of Italians will support the single currency in three years’ time? The euro has not worked out for Finland either. While the country is considered the world champion of structural reforms, its economy has slumped ever since Nokia lost the plot as the world’s erstwhile premier mobile phone maker. France has performed relatively well during the euro’s early years But it, too, is now running persistent current account deficits. It is not only Greece where the euro is not optimal. Once you strip the eurozone of any ambitions for a political and economic union, it changes into a utilitarian project in which member states will coldly weigh the benefits and costs, just as Britain is currently assessing the relative advantages or disadvantages of EU membership. In such a system, someone, somewhere, will want to leave sometime. And the strong political commitment to save it will no longer be there either.
  4. The Texas Brussels sun is blazin' and I need a place to rest my weary bones Whatever got me this far has long since left me out here all alone And now it sure is a long walk back to San Antone Athens
  5. I meant the True Finns leader Timo Soini, not Finance Minister Stubb. Apparently, he threatens to bring down the government if Stubb signs.
  6. Fear not, Greece fans, Alexi has arrived . Will Merkel also step in, discipline Scheuble so they can hammer out some kind of a deal? And who the fuck is that Finnish Farage now flexing his muscles? Is Varoufakis feeling relieved now on his hols for walking away, or itching to get back in? This is a weird game now, right up his alley.
  7. Now Eurogroup cannot reach a deal. This is getting ridiculous.
  8. Well, buying a car was by far the stupidest investment I ever made.
  9. I meant they are scouring discussions like this for ideas. Next Syriza is probably going to use something from Dennis to through a curve ball to the Troika.
  10. BBC News just now "Analysis: Theo Leggett, BBC News The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper says it has seen a German position paper which sets out two possible options for Greece. 1. It could transfer assets worth €50bn into a special fund, to be sold off to pay creditors. 2. Take a a five year "time out" from euro membership, in order to restructure its debts. A note of caution. Although this paper appears to come from within the finance ministry, it does not necessarily reflect Germany's actual position in the talks. Indeed, there are some indications that it doesn't." This Internet surveillance has gone too far.
  11. Interesting summation from within Syriza froma a Tsipras critic in Jacobin: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/07/tsipras-syriza-greece-euro-debt/ "But from Monday morning, before the victory cries in the country’s public squares had even fully died away, the theater of the absurd began. Under the aegis of the actively pro-Yes Greek president of the republic, Prokopis Pavlopoulos, the government summon the heads of the defeated parties to elaborate a framework for negotiation positing the euro as an unpassable outer limit of the Greek position and declaring specifically that it has no mandate to leave the monetary union." He seems to think it's all about the third bail-out, 3 years and a 50 billion restructuring package, and that the proposal was dictated by Schauble, with Tsipras allowed to redistribute the weight somewhat.
  12. They already seem pretty well off according to your WSP link.
  13. http://www.versobooks.com/blogs/2111-alain-badiou-eleven-points-inspired-by-the-situation-in-greece Alain Badiou's thoughts on Greece, he has obviously been closely following some posters on here. "Europe’s governments – urged on by financial lobbies – want to punish Syriza, punish the Greek people, rather than resolve the debt problem." "The world capitalist oligarchy is very narrow, very concentrated, and very organized. Faced with this, dispersed peoples lacking in political unity and closed off within their national borders, will remain weak and almost impotent. Everything today is playing out at a global level. Transforming the Greek cause into an international cause of very powerful symbolic value is a necessity, and, therefore, a duty." OK, but what if German government now takes the Greek proposal and put it to their own referendum? And lets say it is overwhelmingly rejected? What if most of the creditor nations do the same?
  14. I just hope it's their calculated risk.
  15. They have certainly been very pragmatic with Republicans like Reagan paying only lip service to fiscal responsibility. But they can always rely on the world absorbing a lot of dollars and China buying up their debt. Also, pumping soft money into the economy is usually not enough, you need to be smart about it. Most governments somehow end up keynesian. Isn't ECB now also doing a lot of QE?
  16. Singing VAT, it means nothing to me....
  17. You are probably right. There was an interesting proposal from one big German consultancy firm before the second bailout I think, to form an EU vehicle which would buy enough of publicly held property and other assets from Greece and pay most of its debt so the economy would not be stifled by repayments (although selling these assets would appear to have the same effect). Greece would then have the first option to buy back the assets held by the EU vehicle (probably ports and airports and such) when it gets back on its feet. It was a bit fantastical, not quite thought through to the last detail and politically naïve (also to an extent motivated by the desire to help the financial sector avoid the massive haircut which eventually happened), but it also points to an early awareness that Greece’s debt may not be sustainable.
  18. I know the Guardian isn't Socialist Worker but I was under the impression they had an anti-austerity and pro-Greece approach so I was surprised they would be gleeful over Tsipras “caving in”.. Well let’s see what happens, they may not implement many of these proposals, or there may be a split in the coalition as Tsipras seems to under increasing pressure from the Left, since his position is essentially impossible if he wants to stay in the euro. Looking at it through my "neo-liberal" lense, what they are proposing to do now is what most countries already have, tax breaks are widely used by businesses to move goods around not to pay taxes, higher VAT will hurt the poor but the rate of 23% is not the highest in the EU (I think Hungary is at 26% or 27%), VAT on hotels will go to 13%, after they kept it at outrageously low rate of 5% for years. They are cutting defense spending, hopefully not just by cutting soldiers pay as before.
  19. Aren't they mostly pro-Greece? Anyone know what concessions did Alexi get, BBC is mentioning debt relief, this would be a good thing. So far I can see the tax reform is proposed, which was inevitable anyway, defense cuts also, ports privatization may be a tough sell domestically.
  20. It would appear so. The plan is in. Details to follow.
  21. Well the French were at it too, the usual suspects, large share of arms spending did go to Germany.
  22. True, we know why, there was an explosive mix of corrupt government and international arms industry exploiting ever channel to flog their stuff with the full support of their respective governments. It's a pretty old and tried approach.
  23. I am never sure if they include the armed forces in that. At the end od 2013, Greece still topped the EU chart of the share of public administration employees in total employment (slightly under twice the share of UK or Ireland), however, I think this did include police and soldiers, of which they had more than the other countries (as they continually spent more on defence budget). On the other hand, you could not read too much from the chart as some countries fiscally doing well were near the top, and some with not so many public administration employees had troubles. But it was definitely considered oversized und underefficient, so it would appear this was an area in need of further reform, austerity or not.
  24. He listens to Rush Limbaugh.
  25. I have a right-wingy friend who is convinced Obama is a socialist and that the media narrative in the West is dominated by left-wing, liberal agenda. I will use your analysis to reassure him every time he starts to bang on about it.
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