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I'm pretty excited actually, it's my first real 'date' in ages. I hope I haven't forgoten how to do it... bought myself a new dress and everthing.. fingers crossed...

Day 3 JEWSON NOVICES HANDICAP CHASE 2M 5F, CLASS A, 5y-o+ RECENT TRENDS Just 4 runnings of this race. Killer stat: ALL 4 winners of this race were 7yo's • All 4 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out • All 4 winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last 3 runs (when completing the course) • All 4 winners carried less than 10-12 • All 4 winners had run at least 3 times that season • All 4 winners ran in a February Novice / Beginners Chase last time out (not handicap) Interesting Facts: Paul Nicholls has sent out 9 runners in the race with all un-placed. Selection Isn't That Lucky Alt Kia Kaha EWay Astradore PERTEMPS FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE 3MILES, LISTED, 5y-o+ RECENT TRENDS Killer stat: Only one 5yo winner in 34 runnings • 12 of last 16 winners had already won over 3miles • 6yo & 9yo have the best recent record with 4 wins each in the last 10 runnings • Only 1 winning fav in last 10 years • All of last 10 winners had prep run between 31&66 days prior to race • 8 of the last 9 winners had run 3 or more times that season • 8 of rhe last 9 winners carried 11-02 or less Interesting Fact: The last 5 winners had all won a race with a field of 16 runners+ Selection Syncronised AlT Ballydub EW Heathcliff RYANAIR CHASE 2M 5F, GRADE 1, 5y-o+ RECENT TRENDS Another new race that has only 4 years of data Killer stat: All winners were from the first 3 in the betting and only 1 horse with double figure odds has made the frame out of the 12 possible places (Lacdoudal 2nd at 20/1) • All 4 winners had won at Cheltenham • All 4 winners had won a Class 1 race • Paul Nicholls has trained 2 of the 4 winners • 3 of the 4 winners were aged 9 years+ • 50% of all French Bred runners have been placed Interesting Fact: Both Fontmort and Our Vic finished 2nd in the race before winning the following year. Selection Imperial Commander Alt Voy Por Ustedes EW Tidal Bay WORLD HURDLE 3MILES, GRADE 1, 4y-o + RACE HISTORY Formerly the Stayers Hurdle and run in it's current format since 1972 it adopted the peculiar new name of the World Hurdle when Ladbrokes took over the sponsorship. Still run over the same distance it has been the main event in deciding the stayers division for some time. Recent winners include the French star stayer Baracouda and the horse who ended his attempts for 3 wins in the race, Inglis Drever. The latter went on to record an historic victory in last years race when he became the first horse to achieve that feat of 3 wins in the Stayers Hurdle. Unfortunately injury has forced his retirement and scuppered any dreams of the unprecedented 4 Stayers Championships. RECENT TRENDS Killer stat: The last 21 winners finished in first 4 last time out • No 5yo has ever won the World Hurdle / Stayers Hurdle • Only 1 aged over 9 has won (1986 Crimson Ember) • 9 of last 10 winners aged 6-8 • No Irish winner since 1995 (Dorans Pride) • No winner this decade had more than 3 runs that season • 8 of the last 10 winners had won a Graded hurdle • 8 of the last 10 winners had won or were placed at a previous Festival Interesting Fact: The last 8 winners finished either 1st or 2nd in all there runs that season HOW THE LEADING FANCIES FIT THE TOP TRENDS Finished top 4 last time Aged 6-8 Run 3 or less times Won a Graded Hurdle Win or place at a festival Finished 1 or 2 all runs Kasbah Bliss Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Punchestowns Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Big Bucks Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Fair Along Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Blazing Bailey No Yes Yes Yes Yes No Catch Me Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Mobaasher Yes Yes Yes No Yes No Powerstation Yes No No Yes Yes No Duc de Regniere Yes Yes No Yes No No Tazbar Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Hardy Eustace No No No Yes Yes No Lough Derg Yes No No Yes No No 1999 – 2008 PAST WINNERS Year Horse Age Trainer Odds Weight 2008 INGLIS DREVER 9 H. JOHNSON 11/8F 11-10 2007 INGLIS DREVER 8 H. JOHNSON 5/1 11-10 2006 MY WAY DE SOLZEN 6 A.KING 8/1 11-10 2005 INGLIS DREVER 6 H. JOHNSON 5/1 11-10 2004 IRIS'S GIFT 7 JJ O'NEIL 9/2 11-10 2003 BARACOUDA 8 F. DOUMEN 9/4J 11-10 2002 BARACOUDA 7 F. DOUMEN 13/8F 11-10 2000 BACCHANAL 6 N. HENDERSON 11/2 11-10 1999 ANZUM 8 D. NICHOLSON 40/1 11-10 HOW THE FAVOURITES FARED Favourites finishing position: 2611223F1To £1 Level Stake: -£2.27 Position of winner in market: 9-3-1-1-2-3-4-3-1 TRAINER RECORDS SINCE 1998 (RUNNERS – WINS – PLACED) A. KING 8 1 2 W. MULLINS 5 0 1 H. DALY 3 0 3 H. JOHNSON 4 3 0 N. HENDERSON 5 1 0 F. DOUMEN 9 2 3 N. TWISTON-DAVIES 7 0 1 AGE OF WINNER. WINS - NUMBER OF RUNNERS 5yo 0-9 / 6yo 3-28 / 7yo 3-33 / 8yo 3-27 / 9yo 1-16 / 10yo 0-12 / 11yo 0-5 / 13yo 0-1 PACE IN THE RACE – HOW THE FIRST THREE FINISHERS RACED LED 2 RACED PROMINENT 11 MID-DIVISION 2 HELP UP IN REAR 12 AVERAGE JOE – THE AVERAGE PROFILE OF THE WINNER AGE WEIGHT POSITION LAST TIME RUNS THAT SEASON DAYS SINCE LAST RUN NUMBER OF RUNS OVER HURDLES ODDS 7 11s 10lb 2 3 34 10 9 to 2 COUNTRY OF ORIGIN (RUNNERS WINNERS PLACED % WIN & PLACE) to No. of Runners / to No. of Places (27) GB Bred 34 5 4 26.5% 33.3% Irish Bred 45 1 7 17.8% 29.6% French Bred 31 3 7 35.5% 37%% German Bred 2 0 0 0% 0% Others 10 0 0 0% 0% KEY TRIALS Blue Square Hurdle. Haydock. February 14th This saw the long awaited seasonal reappearance of last years World Hurdle runner up Kasbah Bliss who hadn't run since a fair 4th in a Group 1 flat race last backend. And what a comeback run it was as the French horse jumped superbly, moved effortlessly alongside the runner up approaching the last and sprinted 8 lengths clear on the run in. Given the soft ground this was a performance out of the top drawer and sets the standard for all the other World Hurdle hopefuls. Cleeve Hurdle. Cheltenham. January 24th Run over the course and distance of the World Hurdle but on ground described as heavy this was still a good dress rehersal for the main event in March. The race went to the Paul Nicholls trained Big Bucks who, in receipt of a much needed 8lb, got the better of the odds on Nicky Henderson trained Punchestowns by 4 lengths. Connections of both horses will be very pleased with the result but with conditions likely to be less testing in March it will be Mr Henderson who has more reasons to be smiling. Fair Along ran another good race in third on his favourite track and will no doubt give another game performance without threatening the market leaders. A comment that also applies to the robust Lough Derg who ran well in fourth without posing a danger. He would be an interesting runner in something like the Coral Cup. Long Walk Hurdle. Ascot. December 20th The race that put Punchestowns to the forefront of the home based stayers as he recorded an easy success from his stablemate Duc de Regniere. With a whole host of decent stayers well behind him this was a very good performance and a big step up from the handicap he had won at the track previously. Mobaasher stayed on quite well to take third and should be suited by Cheltenham's stiff track. Blazing Bailey ran another poor race, after flattering to deceive three flights out, to finish a well beaten fourth but it's worth remembering that this horse seems to run his best races in the Spring. With the majority of winners having run previously at the Cheltenham Festival it may be worth looking at the 2008 running of the World Hurdle. 2008 World Hurdle. Cheltenham. March 13th 2008 Kasbah Bliss was the only runner to give Inglis Drever any sort of race last year and he lost nothing in defeat in going down by a length to one of the best stayers of recent years. With that rival now enjoying a well earned retirement the path is clear for the relatively young French horse to assume his Staying Crown. After a highly promising reappearance that crown is his for the taking. Blazing Bailey assumed his normal finishing position of fourth last year and seems unlikely to improve on that run this time around while Hardy Eustace and Lough Derg were well out the back and have it all to do again. LAST YEARS WINNER HAD HIS LAST RUN PRIOR TO CHELTENHAM IN THE.... Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham. See above... Selection Big Bucks Alt Kasbar Bliss EW Tazbar RACING POST FESTIVAL PLATE HANDICAP CHASE 2M 5F. GRADE 3. 5y-o+ RACE HISTORY Formerly the Mildmay of Flete Handicap Chase it took it's new name in 2006 when The Racing Post took over the sponsorship. When it was run under the old title it was a race Martin Pipe regularly targeted and he won it 4 times in the 5 races between 1997-2002.. He was also responsible for the last winning favourite in 1999 (Majadou) since when the race has been won by less fancied runners none more so than last years shock 66/1 winner Mister McGoldrick . This horse was also only the second horse to win this race at the ripe old age of 11. RECENT TRENDS Killer stat: French bred horses have won 5 of the last 9 runnings and were runner up in the other 4. • All of the last 11 winners had won a Class 3 or better race. • 10 of the last 11 had won at a trip between 2m3f and 2m5f • 15 of the last 17 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival • 14 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 4 last time out • There's only been 1 winning favourite in the last 27 years • The last 11 winners all had there last run in a Chase event within the last 2 months • 10 of the last 11 winners carried 11-03 or less Interesting Fact: The shortest priced winner since 2000 was 12/1