First plot is comparison of scenarios for increased R values with later data. Crucially, these weren't predictions about what R would be (R estimate that week was 0.9-1.1, so pretty flat epidemic). Rather, report showed what could happen if R increased beyond current range... 2/ pic.twitter.com/seRG8Ha2eZ

— Adam Kucharski (@adamjkucharski) December 22, 2021