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Dave

Red House

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Red House last won the day on October 4 2017

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About Red House

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  1. Red House

    Summer 2018 Transfer Thread

    He's had to compete with Kroos-Modric and Rakitic-Modric at club and nation level though. Would any of our own midfielders got in ahead of these? Seriously doubt it.
  2. Red House

    Div or Dom?

    I just can't see how you can make that claim. All that can be concluded from the argument you've proposed is that the operationalised variable you have used for finishing (i.e. shot conversion) cannot predict whether a player is actually a good finisher or not from that particular sample of shots. What you most definitely cannot say is that the same stands for Captain or lifetime fan or as we may call it the eye test. Simply because shot conversion (or even its evolved form, xG added) does not equate to finishing skill as they are referring to. In fact, it is a highly stripped down proxy for finishing skill. For illustrative purposes, the average informed football fan would not require much mental effort to distinguish a composed finish from a rushed one, or to identify a flukey finish. On the other hand, you would have a hard time building any statistical model that could distinguish between these with similar accuracy. That is because the statistical modeller can only model from what is quantifiable, which means leaving out all relevant aspects that cannot be quantified like composure, body language etc.... (I am a doctoral researcher in cognitive and affective neuroscience, so I face the same issue everyday having to quantify unobservable psychological constructs). How the fuck do you objectively integrate whether a player shat himself in front of goal in your model? It is hardly surprising then that these stripped down measures appear vulnerable to fluctuations over time. But, the brain does not seem to be limited by this quantification problem. If anything, modelling confidence and body language is part of its built-in evolutionary toolkit. So, the human brain can and does derive far more information from each of these 23 shots than its reductionistic quantified equivalent can. In other words, Captain, lifetime fan or any football fan are likely to form significantly better informed opinions from this sample of shots than conversion rate is likely to do. *It is also worth noting that the brain is itself a predictive machine, and one that in all likelihood uses what seems to approximate bayesian computation (see the bayesian brain hypothesis or some of Karl Friston’s work). I am not sure about the But, given the small sample size issue you are mentioning, I would not be surprised if bayesian inference modelling would represent a superior alternative as it does a better job of accounting for uncertainty. This again would suggest to me that the ‘eye test’ would outperform conversion rate models in terms of predictive value. Everything about the eye test would suggest that finishing skill is a fairly stable trait that appears relatively unaffected by aging effects (bit like everyone could see that even a fat old Fowler was still as cool a finisher as always despite the dwindling numbers). When you see such a discrepancy, you’ve got to start asking yourself what exactly your measure is actually measuring. So, I would strongly contend that the 'luck' and repeatability issues that have been highlighted here are due to the poor content/construct validity of your operationalised variable rather than finishing skill per say, as it would be defined by the average football fan.
  3. Red House

    Summer 2018 Transfer Thread

    No, definitely January 2017. https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/liverpool-eye-german-winger-julian-12433455 Coutinho only left this January. Lemar, Pulisic and Keita's deal being brought forward were the tentative links.
  4. Red House

    Daniel Sturridge - 2020

    No surprise there. If we couldn't find any buyer in January, we were never going to find one this summer after that fiasco of a loan deal. Bar saving a few bobs on wages, there is little point in loaning him out again. Ings and Origi have bigger saleable value anyway.
  5. Red House

    Summer 2018 Transfer Thread

    Teixeira was during the first January transfer window under Klopp. The one we signed Caulker in. He fucked off to China instead and never been linked to us again.
  6. Red House

    Summer 2018 Transfer Thread

    Brandt was our first choice from January onwards, and he was only regularly mentioned alongside Keita and VVD as our main summer targets by Pearce, Reddy and co. It was only after he announced he wanted to stay at Leverkusen that the Salah links started to intensify. The Costa links were mainly from shitty papers (bit like the Vida, Cilessen rumours this summer). The only apparent alternative was Gelson Martins but even that seemed more of a negotiating tactic.
  7. Red House

    Summer 2018 Transfer Thread

    Third choice after Zielinski and Dahoud.
  8. Red House

    Div or Dom?

    Didn't Mo have the highest number of big chances missed in the league last season? So, it's hardly ludicrous to say he had some finishing issues in the first part of the season despite his ridiculous goal tally. It definitely got better as the season went on but it's undeniable that he had some Sterling-like open goal misses early on in the season. In any case, Mo's greatest attribute has always been his off the ball movement rather than his finishing.
  9. Red House

    Naby Keita

    Studge seems to be a fan. https://streamable.com/9ssy8
  10. Red House

    Summer 2018 Transfer Thread

    These are the price tags we've placed on those we are hoping to move on, according to Pearce. Origi - 27m Ings - 20m Grujic - 20m Ojo - 15m Mignolet - similar fee to Ward Markovic - 7m Chirivella - 5m Woodburn likely to go out on loan
  11. Red House

    2018 Pre-Season Match Thread

    Fucking hope Alisson is playing League Cup games too.
  12. Red House

    2018 Pre-Season Match Thread

    Moreno and Karius. No surprise there.
  13. Red House

    2018 Pre-Season Match Thread

    Origi's brain ticks far too slow for a striker. He's systematically caught on the back foot on every single cross. On the other hand, Curtis Jones has been excellent again.
  14. Red House

    Summer 2018 Transfer Thread

    We are well stocked in terms of depth/quantity but in terms of sheer of quality, City's midfield is still ahead of us. There is still a spot next to Keita and Fabinho for a top class attacking midfielder.
  15. Red House

    Summer 2018 Transfer Thread

    Yep, just saw the interview. Pretty much confirmed we won't do anything more.
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