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The Woolster

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Posts posted by The Woolster


  1. Our aims have been realistic - 99% of the times. In your opinion, which top club in Europe would have given Rafa a new 5 year contract?

     

    I admire your will to argue about the wages but to say a manager is only 10% or less responsible for the club's success is a joke. I'm sorry to say, but it is really a joke.

     

    Wages are important - only a fool will argue otherwise. But to bring wages into the argument EVERYTIME we fail to win a game or a trophy is also a joke. Football doesn't always operate like that.

     

    If football strictly operated on the basis of statistics and numbers, we wouldn't have won the CL in 2005. We wouldn't have reached the final in 2007 either.

     

    Wages is an important factor in success and domination. So are other qualities. And a manager has far MORE responsibility than just 5% or 10%.

     

    I agree that Catch goes on far too much about the wages issue, however it does not mean he is necessarily wrong. Although I have not read it, I think he is getting his 90% from the recent book "Why England lose" which used stats to look at a lot of issues in football, and the emprical evidence of plotting end of season positions compared to wage bill suggests that wages account for 90% of where a team finishes. But it is quite an abstract way of looking at things, which is why it does seem wrong, but the evidence is there to support it.

     

    I find the Fink Tank in The Times quite interesting and their Manager of the Year analysis sums it up quite well how to look at expectations compared to wages. Although unfortunately last season they gave it to Slur Alex.

     

    Sir Alex Ferguson is Fink Tank manager of the year

     

    They always ask the wrong question. When I tell people that I am about to reveal the Fink Tank Manager of the Year, I am usually asked “Who?” or sometimes “Why?” or most often “What are you serving for dinner and can I come?” But the right question is “How?”

     

    I am going to tell you the identity of our Manager of the Year and you will have your own opinion of whether that feels right. But the correct way to judge if the result is correct is to judge whether the basis on which we made the calculation is correct. In other words, you need to think about how we did it, rather than who we picked. The result merely follows from our method of calculation.

     

    Subjective judgments based on newspaper reports or single incidents are inclined to give too much emphasis to individual events that happen to be at the front of people’s minds. This is what psychologists call the availability bias.

     

    Second, you can’t use raw data on club performance to choose a manager of the year, because this ignores the elephant in the room. Money is the single most important driver of performance. You have to be able to model the relationship between the money spent and the team’s performance if you are going to isolate the impact of the manager.

     

    Third, looking only at money, performance and expectations excludes many things that people might like to include. Press relations, say, or nimbleness in the transfer market. But our view is that these things don’t matter unless they impact on a team’s results. Who cares if someone is good in the transfer market unless they produce good results?

     

    Finally, the period over which they produce good results is important.

     

    Having a manager of the month is absurd, because the results of one month of games tell you almost as much about luck as they do about management.

     

    There is a good argument that even a year is too short. But it is reasonable to take a look each season.

     

    So, Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Dr Ian Graham began by plotting the number of points obtained by each club against their estimated player wage bill. This allowed a curve to be drawn that shows how many points you would expect a team to score given the amount of money they were spending. As you move towards the top end you have to spend more and more money to gain anything extra in the way of points. That is even more true this season than it was last season.

     

    Finally, we excluded managers who had been in charge for fewer than 15 games because we didn’t think there was enough data to judge fully.

     

    This year’s Manager of the Year is Sir Alex Ferguson, the first time he lifts the prestigious trophy. Even though Manchester United’s wage bill is vast, his performance exceeded the expected performance by a wide margin. Rafael Benítez came second, his best Fink Tank Manager of the Year performance. Tony Pulis and Phil Brown have also had exceptional seasons. David Moyes finished near the top again.

     

    It is worth noting that Sam Allardyce did better than expected given the Blackburn Rovers wage bill despite not having a chance to play the transfer market properly.

     

    Luiz Felipe Scolari finished in the bottom segment, though controversially above Gianfranco Zola. Guus Hiddink was excluded because he wasn’t manager for long enough. But if he had been included? He would have come second.

     

    Sir Alex Ferguson is Fink Tank manager of the year | The Fink Tank - Times Online


  2. Sometimes I think you watch a differnt match to me! Lucas for me hides nearly all the time - you watch how often he takes a position up where he is the one who puts the opposition player between him and the ball.

     

    I think he is changing, perhaps becoming more confident, and is now always looking for the ball and giving the player on the ball an option of an easy pass. I watched the Fulham game last night as I didn't get to watch it first time round, and I think watching a game when you know the result means you can look at things a bit differently as you don't have the tension of a live game, and all the way through he was giving options like Alonso used to do. Of course when he got it he wasn't quite Alonso like. Thought the same during the Lyon game too.


  3. as far as i know masch has captain argentina at every level he's played at for the argies and was always a captain in waiting. Apart from a few months at WHU, he's always been seen as a top player and a leader. We got him, but I bet just about every club in europe looking for that type of player would have been in for him given the chance - we are a top club, so he came to us. He's always been a leader and that what we bought. I would give you a big "FAIL" too, but I am not nerdy enough to know how to do that! As for how about the rest of the squad - on Wednesday we had at least 5 "captains" on the pitch (carra, insua, masch, kuyt, torres), how many do you want (and i might be wrong, but the Greek might also have been a captain in the past too)? We have more than enough leaders on the pitch, what we need is more ability at playing football.

     

    I think Lucas has been captain of Brazil at junior levels as well, so that is 6


  4. *belm*

     

    The fucking point is, you can learn how to defend better.

    You can't teach someone pace if you haven't got any.

     

    You can teach/coach someone to be faster than they already are though, and surely part of learning how to defend better would also inlcude how to defend against pace through better positioning and reading of the game.


  5. To the tune of Let it Be

     

    When we find ourselves in times of trouble

    On the wing we want to see,

    Skipping past the tackles, Yossi

    And in our hour of darkness

    He’ll create something with his mastery

    Skipping past the tackles, Yossi

     

    Benayoun, Benayou, Benayoun, Benayoun

    Skipping past the tackels, Benayoun


  6. Not seen this mentioned anywhere else, but don't think it needed its own thread so this one seemed appropriate as they both only got a warning, but how can Neville only get off with only a warning for his celbrations to the City fans when he has previous? Surely if you do something which you have already been fined and warned about, then if you do it again the least you should get is a bigger fine!


  7. I have read it a few times, too. He doesn't seem to like Liverpool or Benitez much, for whatever reason.

     

    (Bit like Le Tissier in that respect)

     

    Aye, here's what he said about Johnson last week. Starts off saying he is not a great defender, but then goes on to talk about Italy and Brazil winning the World cup with Defences that are sound but not great, bearing in mind that Brazil had 2 of the most attacking full backs of the last decade or 2.

     

    Think he has been coming on here and reading Code72s posts! Perhaps the fact that Bright agrees with him can be used to prove that Code is wrong. Again.

     

     

    Mark Bright: Johnson is England's weakest link

     

    This summer Liverpool paid £18million to Portsmouth for Glen Johnson but come next July he could just cost England the World Cup.

    Going forward he is great but as a defender he gets beaten too easily.

     

    Former Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho thought Johnson would let him down against top-class *opposition. At the moment, he looks to be right.

     

    Slovenia were modest opponents at Wembley last weekend but it was *amazing how easily Johnson was *beaten and Slovenia's goal came from his poor defending.

     

    If England are going to win the World Cup we need a rock-solid defence.

     

    Fabio Capello says Johnson is one of the best right-backs in the world and he has the talent to be the best if he *improves the defensive side of his game.

     

    Johnson need look no further than his England team-mate Ashley Cole for inspiration. The Chelsea star has completed his *transformation as a brilliant attacking and defending left-back.

     

    Capello is getting the best out of his talented squad, there's no *question about that. The Italian knows it takes sound, but not always *brilliant, *defences to win major trophies.

     

    Take a look at the last two World Cup-winning defences. In 2006, Italy won the final with an excellent goalkeeper in Gianluigi Buffon and a back four of Gianluca Zambrotta, Fabio *Cannavaro, Marco Materazzi and Fabio Grosso. I would say good, but not great. Brazil, in 2002, had a decent keeper in Marcos, two great wing-backs in Cafu (pictured) and Roberto Carlos, with Edmilson, Lucio and Roque Junior in defence. But what about further up the field? The argument on whether Jermain Defoe should start in place of Emile Heskey rumbles on and I ask if it isn't broke, why fix it?

     

    Defoe is doing what he does best, scoring goals. The results are the *important thing and we keep on *winning. Defoe is piling the pressure on Capello but keep an eye on *Carlton Cole. Should Capello not start with Heskey he might opt for the ever-improving West Ham forward.

     

    If England beat Croatia they will join the eight other *countries who have already qualified for South *Africa next summer.

     

    And I feel this World Cup will be our best since Italy in 1990 – when Sir Bobby Robson's side reached the semi-finals.

     

    The weather in the South African winter is in our favour – it could be cold, damp and wet *especially in Cape Town.

     

    And after *watching the *Confederations Cup a couple of months ago I feel we have nothing to fear. We just need to sort out Johnson and that right-back position!


  8. There's a real lack of Garth Crooks youtubeage unfortunately. He's got to have some belters.

     

    All i could find was this.

     

    [YOUTUBE]vsFX2a626OE[/YOUTUBE]

     

    I don't mind him, in all the blandness of BBC punditry he's actually quite refreshing, even if he does talk absolute bollocks nearly all the time.

     

    I used to have to mark Agogo playing Sunday league football, and then played on the same team as him, and he really wasn't that good. Not trying to big myself up as I am pretty crap to be honest, and he wasn't that much better than me. Gutting to see him go on and play with the same team as Stoichkov and go to the African Nations Cup. And yes I am jealous and bitter.

     

    As for Garth Crooks, he is a thundercunt, but that is quite funny, as Bright is also a twat. I have had the misfortune of reading Bright's weekly column in The Metro on the way to work a few times, I dunno if it is in the London edition only, but it is absolute shite, week in week out.

     

    I reckon Crooks was showing him he is still top thundercunt though.


  9. It includes National Insurance which used to only apply to a certain level.

     

     

    "Less anticipated though was the clawback of the personal allowance for higher earners, which will see some taxpayers effectively paying paying 60p in the £1, according to leading accountants. These changes will not just affect the 1pc of taxpayers earning more than £150,000 a year. It will potentially affect 650,000 people earning more than £100,000 a year. To further rub salt into the wound these higher earners will also pay an additional 1pc in National Insurance costs, giving an effective taxation rate of 61pc - a rate not seen since the late 1980s."

     

     

    For a start, that is the marginal tax rate and not the average tax rate. The people who will be paying the marginal rate 61p in the pound are the ones somewhere around the £150k per annum mark I believe as it is to do with people losing their personal allowance as well as increased National Insurance. The amount that Xabi earns, he won't even notice the difference. There is still an upper limit to National Insurance which is in line with where the higher rate of tax starts (around £45k pa), above this National Insurance contribution is 1%, increasing to 1.5% from 2011. As Xabi earns the £150k in a couple of weeks, he will not be paying the 61% marginal rate of tax, but 51.5% (from 2011, 51% at the mo). So the difference between the Spanish tax rate and the UK tax rate then becomes more like 7%.

     

    And yes, the exchange has made a difference, however the Pound has been strengthening compared to the Euro, a trend which is likely to continue as the global economy improves, which I am sure he would be told be the expensive financial advisors he can afford. Prior to the financial crisis, I think it was around €1.25 to the Pound, it is now around $1.15, not such a huge difference again.

     

    And stop banging on about Pennant getting paid more, Pennant was a free signing, so I am sure that the lack of a transfer fee has been reflected in his wages.

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