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The Woolster

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Posts posted by The Woolster

    General Election 2019

    in GF - General Forum

    Posted

    I've been looking at some of these polls, and the headline numbers that we see strip out the undecideds. When the undecideds are included the gap between the Tories and Labour is at least a couple of % points closer than the headlines. The undecideds are still fairly large, ranging from about 8% to 15%.

     

    Now not all of the undecideds will end up voting, but I believe that undecideds that do vote tend to end up voting Labour, I think that is partly because it is a greater % of women who leave their decision late, and they tend to vote Labour. But also, my guess is that these undecideds are more likely to be tactical voters, so I am hopeful that there will be a closing of that gap.

     

    I think the pool are also underweight the youth vote, who we know tend to vote Labour. Including those with the undecideds, I think it could be a couple of % points closer. I thin kwe do need a swing of a couple of points on the headline numbers though, there is a bout a 10% gap, and I think we need to get to about 8% for these missing voters to get us to a hung parliament.

     

    With regards to the latest Survation, its got some funky stuff going on with London. London tends to vote Labour, the other polls that I have looked, including the previous Survation poll, at have Labour leading in London as expected, but this latest one has the Tories on 40.9% and Labour on 36.4%. The Survation poll before was 28.5% Conservative, 39.9% Labour. The poll is based off 98 people in London, which is over 10% of the amount polled, so I am not sure if I trust that this latest poll is actually representative. 

    General Election 2019

    in GF - General Forum

    Posted

    18 hours ago, Captain Turdseye said:

    The few active Labour people I know agreed beforehand that we’d spread out around the room, clap for our candidate and stay quiet after he spoke. I was amazed when it started and the majority there were against him. The fella that writes for the local rag said it’s never happened like that here before and the couple of times I’ve canvassed in the last year or so I’ve found that Labour voters are like rocking horse shit. You’re essentially going out to knock on people’s doors so they can tell you that Corbyn’s a bastard.

     

    Seems a bit odd that they were so against him, considering the majority he had in 2017. I know Raab has had a similar issue and is in trouble, but he is in a heavy remain area, just checked and West Suffolk was 63% Leave in the referendum. Was the area it was held in more left leaning than the rest of the constituency or something?

     

    I know he has made a massive knob of himself since the Tory leadership campaign, but presume there is no chance of him actually losing, is there?

     

     

    General Election 2019

    in GF - General Forum

    Posted

    19 hours ago, Barry Wom said:

     

    But the Brexit party dropped out ages ago. Why would people still be moving their support now? The country is full of bellends. 

    You can see from the poll that BXP were down 1%. 

     

    They haven't dropped out of all of the seats, so, where they are standing, there can still be some drift towards the Tories.

     

    Also, the polls don't count the undecided, as some of them decide thr closer we get, some will decide Tory. I think I saw its something like 20-30% that decide to vote Conservative in the end, so much less than Labour,  but could still add to an uptick.

    • Upvote 1

    TLW Deathpool 2019

    in GF - General Forum

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

    Have you got access to the worlds medical records? 

     

    From when I first entered in 2016 

     

    On 15/01/2016 at 11:33, The Woolster said:

    I've done some analysis using age, known illnesses and known substance abuse as inputs to calculate probability. I've also added a factor for if they are 69.

     

    I've analysed over 10k celebrities, so I'll be very disappointed if I don't win this.

     

    I've won each year since...

    • Upvote 1

    General Election 2019

    in GF - General Forum

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, SasaS said:

    What is the source for that, I saw somewhere (the Guardian?) Conservatives are claiming you could find them on the Internet for the past two months.

     

    I saw it on Twitter, but I can't access Twitter on my work PC and not allowed to check my phone at my desk...

    General Election 2019

    in GF - General Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Lizzie Birdsworths Wrinkled Chopper said:

    Anyone seen a single piece of media speculation yet on the timing of Corbyn only having access to this the day after voter registration closed?

     

    Closed at midnight, he’s out at 10am for his press conference. I’d want to know who made this unredacted version available to him and when if I were a journalist.

     

    I’m going to wildly speculate that a man for whom saving the NHS has formed most of his campaign and who has been urging people to register to vote on a daily basis, wouldn’t have sat on something which would inevitably inspire many people who hadn’t already to register to vote.

     

    I am just a big tinfoil hat wearing naive cult member, mind.

     

    Apparently its been available on Reddit for the past month. 

    General Election 2019

    in GF - General Forum

    Posted

    48 minutes ago, Anubis said:

    Nah, you’re not getting away with that. Who is he and where is he standing?

     

    No chance! Thankfully, he doesn't really have a chance, but you never know, next time they might give him a closer or even safe seat, and I don't want to have to deal with the guilt by association!

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