General Election 2019 in GF - General Forum Posted 9 Dec 2019, 11:34:35 · Report reply I've been looking at some of these polls, and the headline numbers that we see strip out the undecideds. When the undecideds are included the gap between the Tories and Labour is at least a couple of % points closer than the headlines. The undecideds are still fairly large, ranging from about 8% to 15%. Now not all of the undecideds will end up voting, but I believe that undecideds that do vote tend to end up voting Labour, I think that is partly because it is a greater % of women who leave their decision late, and they tend to vote Labour. But also, my guess is that these undecideds are more likely to be tactical voters, so I am hopeful that there will be a closing of that gap. I think the pool are also underweight the youth vote, who we know tend to vote Labour. Including those with the undecideds, I think it could be a couple of % points closer. I thin kwe do need a swing of a couple of points on the headline numbers though, there is a bout a 10% gap, and I think we need to get to about 8% for these missing voters to get us to a hung parliament. With regards to the latest Survation, its got some funky stuff going on with London. London tends to vote Labour, the other polls that I have looked, including the previous Survation poll, at have Labour leading in London as expected, but this latest one has the Tories on 40.9% and Labour on 36.4%. The Survation poll before was 28.5% Conservative, 39.9% Labour. The poll is based off 98 people in London, which is over 10% of the amount polled, so I am not sure if I trust that this latest poll is actually representative.