Joe Allen thread

[ronnie38]

What Lucas has to do with this is your constant cherry-picking of stats and "observations" to fit an already cemented position, combined with a stunning inability to reconcile your behaviour in some threads with similar behaviour you deplore from others.

 

What Lucas has to do with this is Allen is being mooted as a possible target, and you are trying to persuade others that maybe he is not the right choice (nothing wrong with that at all). But you decide to big up Henderson using some tenuous stats, because tenuous stats are your thing, when it would have been a stronger argument to big up Lucas, who must I remind you, is also a player of ours, whose stats are stronger and who plays in midfield as well.

 

But we know you won't do that because you hate Lucas and you'd be loathe to ever paint anything he does in a postive light, even if it would directly help the argument you are trying to make.

 

What Lucas has to do with it is you won't bring him up, claiming he's not part of the discussion, but in (let's say) a thread discussing the performance of Roy Hodgson as manager of England, it is perfectly reasonable to bring up and slag off Rafa Benitez as a way to....well, you'll have to help me out with that one.

 

What Lucas has to do with this is that he will have a blinder of a game against Chelsea, and you won't even have the humility to admit it. Instead, you'll say he's okay but not even in the top 5 or 6 on the day.

 

What Lucas has to do with this is that he is a symbol of how hypocritical and closeminded you are in certain aspects of our club, someone who will take the high road when he thinks it will benefit him, but then turn around and call our best centreback last season "a cone-headed cunt" without blinking an eye.

 

In short, you are everything that's wrong with modern day sportsfans - you think your opinion is correct because you stick to it, as if the only thing you need to prove something is true is to repeat it over and over again. And maintaining the correctness of this opinion is more important than the club.

 

That's what Lucas has to do with this.

 

Absolutely fantastic post, but why so many words when CODE is a CUNT is all thats required.

[Gym Beglin]

Ha, i see your Henderson montage Code you crazy fuck, and I raise you...

 

Daily Star: Simply The Best 7 Days A Week :: Football :: Steve Bruce wants £40m for Kenwyne Jones

 

 

Yeah, thats right, fuck you, I win.

[WhiskeyJar]

My apologies; my post was not intended as an invitation for a discussion.

 

[Code]

My apologies; my post was not intended as an invitation for a discussion.

 

You dont need a discussion do you, you just make something up and the voices in your head take care of the rest all by themselves.

[WhiskeyJar]

You dont need a discussion do you, you just make something up and the voices in your head take care of the rest all by themselves.

 

Code man, you lost.

 

Take it like a man and stop being such a sore loser.

The guy made his point and most of us agree with him.

 

Your agenda with Lucas has taken Crusader-esque proportions.

Lighten up.

[Code]

Code man, you lost.

 

Take it like a man and stop being such a sore loser.

The guy made his point and most of us agree with him.

 

Your agenda with Lucas has taken Crusader-esque proportions.

Lighten up.

 

I lost?

 

Hahaha what exactly did I lose?

 

The only point I could see him make was that he proved he has an unhealty obsession with Lucas and also that he cant take a neg without crying on the forum like a little girl for weeks later.

[Guest ShoePiss]

I don't think you lost either code, you have to have something to lose.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

he has an unhealty obsession with Lucas.

 

I bet he hates Rafa, too.

[TheHowieLama]

]

I lost?

 

 

[Faustus]

Code, he's had you off good style. Give it a rest and go to bed.

[Code]

Sorry but I deal with facts not sci-fi.

[TheHowieLama]

Well the fact is its damn near 3 am in Norway and you have to wake up again tomorrow and punch some more suckers out. Hit the sack Thorbjorn.

[Code]

Good point, I've just finished watching Denzel and Eva Mendez in Out of Time so its about time now.

 

I'm only going to be at work for a couple of hours tomorrow though so no stress, guess I'll be at the office around 11 and then hit home around 14.

 

There is only so much work you can do in July, summer is nice.

[TheHowieLama]

Yep - if you worked a full day you would be a billionaire. Leave some for the peasants is what I always say.

[Alan Sex]

Stats question: if you were in jail for 10 nights and got raped savagely all 10 nights, does that make you

 

A) the sexiest man in prison

 

B) the weakest newbie in prison - the easiest target

 

C) it wasn't rape at all, prison can be a lonely place.

[The Woolster]

Blah blah waffle waffle

 

Talk about saying the same thing over and over and over again only slightly differently!

 

However, you keep talking different factors will affect the stats, but again you are talking about too few events, if you play 30+ games over a season, playing Stoke twice for instance will not skew stats by much. As long as a player plays enough minutes over the season, and does enough of the particular action you are looking at, it does not really matter that they play against different teams or different players (I'd say a different league does matter though), as it will all average itself out, so they will have played against the average playing style and the average player. You are then left with your players average performance, and from that you can get a pretty good idea of how well they did that season. It doesn't tell you how good they actually are, which I think is the common misconception, it just tells you how they performed, but that in itself is pretty useful if you want to compare players.

 

Once you are at that point, the stats can become pretty useful just by adding a little bit of context and understanding. You keep saying the stats need context and don't add much in isolation, but it isn't actually very difficult to add it. (One of Codes problems when it comes to stats, is that he often posts a load of numbers but doesn't actually say anything about them, he doesn't add the context). Some stats don't need as much context, some do. For instance, the shooting stats, you either hit the target, or you don't, you either score or you don't, style of play or opponent has less of an effect on this. Some shots are harder than others, but if its a striker they should have had enough shots that this will be averaged out so that the player has an average shot.

 

Suarez scored 11 goals from 128 shots, with a shooting accuracy of 44% and chance conversion of a bit under 10%. Danny Graham scored 12 from 70 shots, with an accuracy of 58% and chance conversion of 17%. This by itself does not mean that Graham is a better finsher than Suarez. We can add some context by saying that Swansea style of play meant that they were perhaps looking for easier chances before shooting, so Grahams average shot was possibly 'easier' than Suarez'. But then you can look at clear cut chances, which should not be affected by style of play at all. Suarez scored 7 from 28, Graham scored 7 from 22. This still does mean that Graham is a better finsher than Suarez, but for whatever reason, last season he was. Perhaps Graham is actually a better finisher, but perhaps my bias gets in the way of seeing what's staring me in the face. This is where the stats can start to breakdown, as whilst the stats are unbiased, the interpretation of them can be.

 

When you get to things like passing accuaracy, that does need a lot more context, but you can still have a good go at it, and people have done so in this thread by discussing style of play of the team and position on the pitch etc. You may disagree with their reasoning, you may disagree with them actually attempting it, but is it really necessary to belittle people for bothering? They might be wrong, but it can at least lead to discussion about tactics, formations etc which is much more interesting than the "he's good/he's shit/he's got no balls" one that we hear ad infinitum. If you can be bothered to write so many words about why the way people have done it is useless, why not instead add some context of your own to show why they might be wrong, I'm sure you can do it.

 

Finally, your attempt to show how the stats can be used badly by how we used them to recruit players last season. We don't actually know how much the stats were used really other than heresay. Did we actually look at the stats to pick the players, Billy Beane style, or did the management already know who they wanted and used certain stats to back them up, letting their bias get in the way? I don't think any of us know, but I think there is a pretty good chance it was the second one.

[The Woolster]

Another thing that Allen is particularly good at is winning back possession. Allen won possession 152 times in the midifeld third last season, and 256 times in total. A lot of that is due to the system Swansea played of pressing high up the pitch (Britton won possession 153 times in the midfield third, they were the 6th and 5th respectively in the league), but he is obviously very good at it, and it is afterall the same system we are likely to be playing here. The player with the most possession wins in that part of the pitch for us is, perhaps surprisingly, Charlie Adam with 98.

 

What is also promising, considering we will be playing a more pressing game, is that we have the player who won possession back the most in the defensive third in the league in Enrique (184), and the player who won possession back in the attacking third in the league in Suarez (31), so 2 players who should fit the system very well.

[WhiskeyJar]

Another thing that Allen is particularly good at is winning back possession. Allen won possession 152 times in the midifeld third last season, and 256 times in total. A lot of that is due to the system Swansea played of pressing high up the pitch (Britton won possession 153 times in the midfield third, they were the 6th and 5th respectively in the league), but he is obviously very good at it, and it is afterall the same system we are likely to be playing here. The player with the most possession wins in that part of the pitch for us is, perhaps surprisingly, Charlie Adam with 98.

 

What is also promising, considering we will be playing a more pressing game, is that we have the player who won possession back the most in the defensive third in the league in Enrique (184), and the player who won possession back in the attacking third in the league in Suarez (31), so 2 players who should fit the system very well.

 

That is context.

[Philbert]

Hank Moody has hit the nail on the head with regard to the purpose and usefulness of stats. They're an indicator (and no more) that something is worthy of further analysis, using a range of additional techniques. In the case of football, actually watching it.

[Alan Sex]

Hank Moody has hit the nail on the head with regard to the purpose and usefulness of stats. They're an indicator (and no more) that something is worthy of further analysis, using a range of additional techniques. In the case of football, actually watching it.

 

Agreed. I thought I did well too though.

[Philbert]

 

Agreed. I thought I did well too though.

 

Indeed you did, indeed you did - ruffles hair and pinches cheek.

[A.V.B.]

I think that is too much, Speo has to be worth 5m.

 

Wouldn't pay 5m gummy bears.

 

Another example of how ridiculously we overrate our players. I don't even think he should be playing first team football in this league.

[MLB]

Looks like he's very close to signing. Good news. I think he will be a fine signing.

[CSR]

There must be at least one, maybe more cm on their way out if we sign this lad. Would be a welcome addition in my eyes though!

[KopOut]

I reckon this is as good as a done deal so let's weigh up the pros and cons.

 

I think he has the potential to be a very good player. There are no obvious weaknesses to his game and he should - in theory at least - slot in perfectly alongside Gerrard and Lucas. Where this leaves the likes of Henderson, Adam and Spearing is another issue. It seems likely that one or more of them will be out the door before long.

 

If we can get him for £12 million or thereabout I think it will represent very good value for money.

 

Adam is no youngster, and really can't be expected to develop into a better player. He is what he is. Not good enough. Spearing and Henderson on the other hand, should be guided and fine tuned over time to become fully operational and effective long term squad members, ready to take their place in the all new BrenSys.