Go fuck yourselves FSG

[Barrington Womble]

7 hours ago, dockers_strike said:

Well Ive no intention of selling my house but I keep it in good condition and presentable in case someone rocks up at the door and makes me a stupid off to sell. I dont have an exit strategy though.

 

Like I said, people keep trotting it out (yet more hyperbole by the way) but keep ignoring the obvious. Investments go down from a peak. I keep hearing FSG bought the club on the cheap, £300+m and that it's now worth over £1.3bn. That's a billion quid profit if they sold tomorrow and the club's stock has never been higher.

 

There is no exit strategy despite now is THE time to sell. World, European and English Champions, it doesnt get better than that never mind the clear and obvious drop in income all clubs will experience in the next 12 months.

 

They've talked about naming rights deals for the Main Stand and being open to selling a minority stake in the club. Neither of which have happened. That also tells me there's currently no known mega rich investment vehicle looking to take a stake in Liverpool never mind buy it.

 

You don't have an exit strategy on your house? What the fuck are you talking about ? How is that comparable to institutional investors? 

 

And as for this is the time to sell. You seem to be very much confusing on field success with off field success. We've been very successful off field for a number of years, in fact I would say in terms of income that's a cycle that was started by Ian Ayre when he was marketing director under H&G. I would be staggered if FSG see no room for growth in the coming years with the opportunity for of TV rights moving to streaming platforms, plus a possible European league. We are not yet at the peak of the football bubble and in terms of revenues, there'll be little difference in us finishing 1st or 2nd (as illustrated by taking more PL money than City last season when we finished 2nd to them).  In addition to that the PL is proving year on year as a product it is becoming more valuable in overseas markets, that growth is still predicted to grow 

 

Finally, if you think billionaires looking to invest and take that assert off their hands will be looking at the trophy cabinet rather than the balance sheet and the clear message FSG have shown that this club can be commercially successful without winning trophies, you are also confusing billionaires with football fans. So unless there's a multi-billionaire Liverpool fan out there who just wants to buy us as a passion project, what we're winning means only the ability to get the brand name more recognisable, but ultimately the value will rest with a strong balance sheet. 

 

If you want to make an analogy comparing a football club to a house, winning cups is about as beneficial as decorating your house prior to sale. It's very unlikely to alter the value and hence the selling price, but it might ensure a quicker and easier sale. But in the same way as your house will be valued based on location, size and structural strength, a football club will be valued based on its strengths on the balance sheet. FSG's ability to prove Liverpool is a viable concern with or without cups is exactly what makes it a saleable asset. 

 

As I've said many times in this forum, I think the most likely exit plan is not fsg exiting LFC, but rather the individual investors of fsg leaving that partnership. 

[VladimirIlyich]

1 hour ago, The Gaul said:

You don't have an exit strategy on your house? What the fuck are you talking about ? How is that comparable to institutional investors? 

 

And as for this is the time to sell. You seem to be very much confusing on field success with off field success. We've been very successful off field for a number of years, in fact I would say in terms of income that's a cycle that was started by Ian Ayre when he was marketing director under H&G. I would be staggered if FSG see no room for growth in the coming years with the opportunity for of TV rights moving to streaming platforms, plus a possible European league. We are not yet at the peak of the football bubble and in terms of revenues, there'll be little difference in us finishing 1st or 2nd (as illustrated by taking more PL money than City last season when we finished 2nd to them).  In addition to that the PL is proving year on year as a product it is becoming more valuable in overseas markets, that growth is still predicted to grow 

 

Finally, if you think billionaires looking to invest and take that assert off their hands will be looking at the trophy cabinet rather than the balance sheet and the clear message FSG have shown that this club can be commercially successful without winning trophies, you are also confusing billionaires with football fans. So unless there's a multi-billionaire Liverpool fan out there who just wants to buy us as a passion project, what we're winning means only the ability to get the brand name more recognisable, but ultimately the value will rest with a strong balance sheet. 

 

If you want to make an analogy comparing a football club to a house, winning cups is about as beneficial as decorating your house prior to sale. It's very unlikely to alter the value and hence the selling price, but it might ensure a quicker and easier sale. But in the same way as your house will be valued based on location, size and structural strength, a football club will be valued based on its strengths on the balance sheet. FSG's ability to prove Liverpool is a viable concern with or without cups is exactly what makes it a saleable asset. 

 

As I've said many times in this forum, I think the most likely exit plan is not fsg exiting LFC, but rather the individual investors of fsg leaving that partnership. 

I'm guessing the biggest threat to FSG's ownership( as I understand they are simply a group of investors?) is one or more of those investors pulling out due to not making enough money or being tempted by a big money takeover from a wealthy individual or group?

[dockers_strike]

6 hours ago, FrenchEyeGlass said:

 

I've literally worked in sell-side M&A representation within the sports industry (and have worked on deals involving American hedge-fund owners more broadly). I say that to say this...

 

You don't know what you are talking about. They absolutely have an exit strategy. They had one the day they walked in here. 

 

Have they sold the Red Soxs yet? Oh yeah, that's right, the Red Soxs are their crown jewels so they'd never sell that. So have they sold their interest in the NASCAR team? No, turns out they havent. Have they sold their interest in the New England Sports Network? No, they havent sold that either.

 

Do they have an active exit strategy for any of them? Doesnt seem so.

[VladimirIlyich]

4 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

Have they sold the Red Soxs yet? Oh yeah, that's right, the Red Soxs are their crown jewels so they'd never sell that. So have they sold their interest in the NASCAR team? No, turns out they havent. Have they sold their interest in the New England Sports Network? No, they havent sold that either.

 

Do they have an active exit strategy for any of them? Doesnt seem so.

I agree mostly with you that FSG are a far better option than almost anybody else out there at the moment but you seem to be arguing over something which every business has and doesn't for one minute mean FSG are going to sell the club anytime soon. Its simply being pointed out that every big business looks at a possible emergency scenario and has a plan if it happens. This is just common sense yet you tend to think it means the owners are looking for a way out. They aren't but they must have a plan for the time it might happen.

[Bobby Hundreds]

They are not going to take their cash out of Liverpool whilst the global economy is in a mess. Banks go tits up and their assets are all cash theyre fucked. Like someone said the individuals in the investment group may cash out as as and when they please or if FSG get an insane offer for Liverpool which is never going to happen. It is more likely the make up of FSG will change. We will remain a club run as a low risk investment plan. A very safe bank account for very wealthy individuals.

[dockers_strike]

Just now, VladimirIlyich said:

I agree mostly with you that FSG are a far better option than almost anybody else out there at the moment but you seem to be arguing over something which every business has and doesn't for one minute mean FSG are going to sell the club anytime soon. Its simply being pointed out that every big business looks at a possible emergency scenario and has a plan if it happens. This is just common sense yet you tend to think it means the owners are looking for a way out. They aren't but they must have a plan for the time it might happen.

No, what Im saying is this. A lot of people are getting hung up on them having an exit strategy and are just waiting for the right time to spring it. I dont believe that.

 

They've said they are open to selling a minority stake in the club although they havent been successful yet.

 

Will they one day sell the club, who knows and does that form an exit strategy? Or is an exit strategy just an idea that eventually you sell something which brings us back to my first para above.

 

If people just want to look on them as hedge fund managers then one of the first jobs of a hedge fund is to build something's value up and sell at the top of the curve. Well, we're effectively at the top of one of those curves, the best time to sell. But they arent. Some people seem to think they're waiting for the next peak or the one after that or one after that. The danger there is those peaks dont come.

 

Where's the evidence they have an exit strategy beyond 'everyone has one'?

[VladimirIlyich]

8 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

No, what Im saying is this. A lot of people are getting hung up on them having an exit strategy and are just waiting for the right time to spring it. I dont believe that.

 

They've said they are open to selling a minority stake in the club although they havent been successful yet.

 

Will they one day sell the club, who knows and does that form an exit strategy? Or is an exit strategy just an idea that eventually you sell something which brings us back to my first para above.

 

If people just want to look on them as hedge fund managers then one of the first jobs of a hedge fund is to build something's value up and sell at the top of the curve. Well, we're effectively at the top of one of those curves, the best time to sell. But they arent. Some people seem to think they're waiting for the next peak or the one after that or one after that. The danger there is those peaks dont come.

 

Where's the evidence they have an exit strategy beyond 'everyone has one'?

You'd not be in business long without an exit strategy. I'm not sure why you don't get that every business has a plan for when things go wrong,whether its now or in 20 years time. If FSG are as good as you are saying then its pretty certain they do.

[Barrington Womble]

2 hours ago, VladimirIlyich said:

I'm guessing the biggest threat to FSG's ownership( as I understand they are simply a group of investors?) is one or more of those investors pulling out due to not making enough money or being tempted by a big money takeover from a wealthy individual or group?

I'm sure the way they're structured someone can't just pick up his toys and go. But it would seem if someone wants out and they can't find a willing buyer for that slice they have 3 choices - 1. Borrow the money to buy the individual out. 2. One or more of the current members buying them out. 3. Selling assets which may or may not include Liverpool. 

 

Again they may be willing to sell slices of individual assets, for example while fsg own LFC, I'm pretty sure le Bron James is an LFC shareholder and not FSG. 

 

What is certain, as you point out in your later post, they will have an exit plan, probably multiple exit plans, which will be regularly under review. I think the biggest chance of them leaving LFC as an entity and looking to provide Liverpool with an entirely new ownership would be ffp. They have pretty much hung their hats on that as a way to survive and the long term strategy for growth looks questionable without it. They're happy to reinvest profits (even if it's not obvious at the moment, they are still not taking a dividend as far as I know, or mental salaries or expenses like h&g), so every penny LFC makes either goes on running the club or sits in a bank account belonging to LFC not fsg, waiting for fsg approval to increase budgets and spend. They're here to increase the value of their asset and if it becomes too difficult to finish top 4 and get in the CL, well there's not much point in them being here. I would feel certain they have far more concern about the implications of the city ffp case, especially with Leeds, Newcastle and maybe even Everton willing to spend (not to mention city and Chelsea) than they do about if we win the league or not next season. In fact I would say it creates a more uncertain future than covid is, which is likely to be a short term bump in the road for them. I would imagine they saw city pretty much getting off scot free was the outcome they expected least. 

[Barrington Womble]

1 hour ago, dockers_strike said:

No, what Im saying is this. A lot of people are getting hung up on them having an exit strategy and are just waiting for the right time to spring it. I dont believe that.

 

They've said they are open to selling a minority stake in the club although they havent been successful yet.

 

Will they one day sell the club, who knows and does that form an exit strategy? Or is an exit strategy just an idea that eventually you sell something which brings us back to my first para above.

 

If people just want to look on them as hedge fund managers then one of the first jobs of a hedge fund is to build something's value up and sell at the top of the curve. Well, we're effectively at the top of one of those curves, the best time to sell. But they arent. Some people seem to think they're waiting for the next peak or the one after that or one after that. The danger there is those peaks dont come.

 

Where's the evidence they have an exit strategy beyond 'everyone has one'?

Fsg are an investment fund and not a hedgefund. A hedge fund makes money in anyway it feels appropriate. Fsg are a sports investment fund. The investors in fsg know that absolutely when they invest. But they are here to invest and make money. I don't understand why you think they wouldn't have an exit strategy, unless you don't really know what an exit strategy is. You seem to be suggesting an exit strategy is the same as actively looking to sell, which it is not. They may actively look to sell if certain conditions are met, but unless you're one of their advisors or one of fsgs investors, it's pretty unlikely you would know. In fact unless they're actively trying to sell LFC at this exact moment, I wouldn't think the LFC CEO would know. 

[FrenchEyeGlass]

8 hours ago, dockers_strike said:

Have they sold the Red Soxs yet? Oh yeah, that's right, the Red Soxs are their crown jewels so they'd never sell that. So have they sold their interest in the NASCAR team? No, turns out they havent. Have they sold their interest in the New England Sports Network? No, they havent sold that either.

 

Do they have an active exit strategy for any of them? Doesnt seem so.

I'm not going to bother replying because you literally do not know what the fuck you are talking about. Here you go: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exitstrategy.asp

 

EVERY INVESTMENT HAS A FUCKING EXIT STRATEGY.

[Section_31]

I know most things have gone out the window with covid but you'd have to be mad to get out of LFC now. The next five years with Klopp and the squad at the age it's at is going to be a golden age in terms of worldwide appeal.

[BeefStroganoff]

44 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

I know most things have gone out the window with covid but you'd have to be mad to get out of LFC now. The next five years with Klopp and the squad at the age it's at is going to be a golden age in terms of worldwide appeal.

Tell that to FSG.

[FrenchEyeGlass]

44 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

I know most things have gone out the window with covid but you'd have to be mad to get out of LFC now. The next five years with Klopp and the squad at the age it's at is going to be a golden age in terms of worldwide appeal.

 

Completely agree, no way they will sell any time soon.

 

Whether this is a 'golden age', we will see. The fact that these tight fisted cunts daren't invest any money into the club means we'd better hope Klopp can keep performing miracles.

[aws]

47 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

I know most things have gone out the window with covid but you'd have to be mad to get out of LFC now. The next five years with Klopp and the squad at the age it's at is going to be a golden age in terms of worldwide appeal.

They've had a phenomenal return on capital so far but there is still a decent return to be had - particularly if individual clubs are sooner or later allowed to cash in on their own TV rights. So I can't see them selling anytime soon but I expect individual investors will be looking to cash out part of their holding, pocket a massive profit and stay on for the free ride with the remainder of their holding. 

[No2]

Moore's was mentioned a couple of pages back as having to sell because he couldn't afford to take us forward. These guys have proved Moore's was wrong, he had everything he needed in front of his eyes, what he didn't have was the plan and the ability to do what FSG have done. They have turned a 300m investment into a 2bn asset. Why would they be looking to exit when so much more potential is waiting to be tapped? Man Utd's value has to be achievable, another couple of to the big trophies over the next 3 years will all be thats  required to surpass them. Unless they are worried about football overall they won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

[Grinch]

1 hour ago, FrenchEyeGlass said:

 

Completely agree, no way they will sell any time soon.

 

Whether this is a 'golden age', we will see. The fact that these tight fisted cunts daren't invest any money into the club means we'd better hope Klopp can keep performing miracles.

They've never invested since buying the club.  We've stopped spending what we earn too now. 

[Barrington Womble]

2 hours ago, FrenchEyeGlass said:

I'm not going to bother replying because you literally do not know what the fuck you are talking about. Here you go: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exitstrategy.asp

 

EVERY INVESTMENT HAS A FUCKING EXIT STRATEGY.

There's a cracking little line in there "eliminating emotion and reducing risk". Nothing could sum up FSG's investment in us better than that short phrase. Winning the league or the CL do not shape the exit plan in any way. The balance sheet does and sometimes that can be enhanced by winning, but mostly there's little difference financially between being there or thereabouts. 

46 minutes ago, No2 said:

Moore's was mentioned a couple of pages back as having to sell because he couldn't afford to take us forward. These guys have proved Moore's was wrong, he had everything he needed in front of his eyes, what he didn't have was the plan and the ability to do what FSG have done. They have turned a 300m investment into a 2bn asset. Why would they be looking to exit when so much more potential is waiting to be tapped? Man Utd's value has to be achievable, another couple of to the big trophies over the next 3 years will all be thats  required to surpass them. Unless they are worried about football overall they won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

I agree it was all there if Moores could see it. However he couldn't see past the fact he didn't have the capital to build a stadium and couldn't contemplate debt to pay for a stadium - and it is unlikely he could have got debt as cheaply as FSG can. Moores was a man who's time was at its end, in fact I would say perhaps it was at its end before he started - he wasn't a business man, just a lucky divvie who was born into money and born into LFC. He wasn't a visionary at all, but like almost everyone connected to Liverpool carried the burden of trying to do things like they'd always been done and was incapable of seeing past that. 

 

But then you say "why would they be looking for an exit"..as per feg's post. An exit strategy doesn't mean they are actively trying to sell. It just means they have a plan to do so if certain criteria are met (good or bad). Only idiots invest without a plan to exit no matter what the line of business. I don't even see why this is such a big discussion. It's like the fsg fan boys on this site think it's a slight on fsg that they would have an exit plan. I'm no fan of fsg, but it seems to me only logical they'd have an exit plan and I would think they're nothing but a bunch of cowboys if they didn't. An exit plan should go hand in glove with any business plan they have..

 

 

[Barrington Womble]

54 minutes ago, Grinch said:

They've never invested since buying the club.  We've stopped spending what we earn too now. 

I can't believe I'm about to defend fsg..... But they're not taking the money out. They don't take a dividend. They don't take extortionate wages or expenses (as far as I know anyway). If we're not spending, the money is still there.

 

But they'll only spend it if they believe there's a return. The little they have spent was getting the club into the CL. Even then it was conservative. Since we've got there, financially that's enough for them. They will start each season and if the manager says "I need to spend 100m", their reply would be "and what is the return on investment". IMO, klopp is almost a victim of his own success. Why would you spend 50 or 100m if the financial outcome doesn't guarantee that and more,.in fact spending 100m would mean P&L would be down? They just won't. It's not about winning cups, it's about getting us in the CL and having a team that has a role of the dice. 

[Barrington Womble]

8 minutes ago, The Gaul said:

There's a cracking little line in there "eliminating emotion and reducing risk". Nothing could sum up FSG's investment in us better than that short phrase. Winning the league or the CL do not shape the exit plan in any way. The balance sheet does and sometimes that can be enhanced by winning, but mostly there's little difference financially between being there or thereabouts. 

I agree it was all there if Moores could see it. However he couldn't see past the fact he didn't have the capital to build a stadium and couldn't contemplate debt to pay for a stadium - and it is unlikely he could have got debt as cheaply as FSG can. Moores was a man who's time was at its end, in fact I would say perhaps it was at its end before he started - he wasn't a business man, just a lucky divvie who was born into money and born into LFC. He wasn't a visionary at all, but like almost everyone connected to Liverpool carried the burden of trying to do things like they'd always been done and was incapable of seeing past that. 

 

But then you say "why would they be looking for an exit"..as per feg's post. An exit strategy doesn't mean they are actively trying to sell. It just means they have a plan to do so if certain criteria are met (good or bad). Only idiots invest without a plan to exit no matter what the line of business. I don't even see why this is such a big discussion. It's like the fsg fan boys on this site think it's a slight on fsg that they would have an exit plan. I'm no fan of fsg, but it seems to me only logical they'd have an exit plan and I would think they're nothing but a bunch of cowboys if they didn't. An exit plan should go hand in glove with any business plan they have..

 

 

 @No2 Additional... One other thing regarding Moore's. He also couldn't have expanded the current stadium. That was looked at and knocked back by the planners. Only a change in planning regs (which happened towards the end of h&g's time) created the situation where we could get all the corporates into the ground we do now by expanding the current footprint. 

[FrenchEyeGlass]

45 minutes ago, The Gaul said:

There's a cracking little line in there "eliminating emotion and reducing risk". Nothing could sum up FSG's investment in us better than that short phrase. Winning the league or the CL do not shape the exit plan in any way. The balance sheet does and sometimes that can be enhanced by winning, but mostly there's little difference financially between being there or thereabouts. 

Absolutely - I would actually be unimpressed with FSG if they didn't have an exit plan (and if it wasn't revisited very often). Your last line gets to the crux of it (and I think you expanded in a separate post) - there's really little motivation for FSG to push money into the club unless there's a notable ROI. Being 2nd or 1st in the league really does nothing to our P&L (we actually got the most TV revenue being 2nd to be honest).

 

The one exception is the title we just won. I think they really wanted to win this, not just to add to the narrative and luster of their story here (because LFC will certainly not be the last investment they make) but also because it is very easily commercialized. Merchandize will be rolled out and lapped up because it's such a special year for us and the Nike kit will sell in droves with the PL Champions badge on the sleeve. 

[FrenchEyeGlass]

44 minutes ago, The Gaul said:

I can't believe I'm about to defend fsg..... But they're not taking the money out. They don't take a dividend. They don't take extortionate wages or expenses (as far as I know anyway). If we're not spending, the money is still there.

 

I need to spend time looking at the accounts because whilst I know this is true, is all of our stadium and training ground investment coming from our own revenues? Because these can all have been funded by direct owner investment under FFP, and all of that money could have been used on transfers instead.

[Barrington Womble]

17 minutes ago, FrenchEyeGlass said:

 

I need to spend time looking at the accounts because whilst I know this is true, is all of our stadium and training ground investment coming from our own revenues? Because these can all have been funded by direct owner investment under FFP, and all of that money could have been used on transfers instead.

I think everything has been done on loans. The 1st loan for the main stand iirc was from fsg funds at relatively low rates of interest (after they'd promised interest free), but this was later replaced by a normal debt facility which I think was via fsg and they add a small margin when passed through to LFC, but it's next to nothing and I believe cheaper than LFC would get without the fsg guarantee. I may have not got that right as I'm working on memory alone and there's been as much bullshit about how the investment was done than there's been facts (including from fsg to their media puppets).  

[jonnyp]

On 26/07/2020 at 13:20, Bobby Hundreds said:

I have ambitions next year to titty fuck Salma Hayek. I'm not going to actively do anything to increase my chances of that happening im just gonna see if she knocks on my door, horny and with extremely low standards.

I have to assume that this plan coming to fruition will be implemented with zero exit policy in mind?

[No2]

10 hours ago, The Gaul said:

 @No2 Additional... One other thing regarding Moore's. He also couldn't have expanded the current stadium. That was looked at and knocked back by the planners. Only a change in planning regs (which happened towards the end of h&g's time) created the situation where we could get all the corporates into the ground we do now by expanding the current footprint. 

That's fair enough on Moore's, I'd imagine he looks at the clubs success with more than a hint of regret. Sold the family silver for a pittance. 

 

On the exit plan it's obvious they will have one I just don't get why it's been discussed, it more likely to 20 years away than it is to be 2 years away.

[Barrington Womble]

29 minutes ago, No2 said:

That's fair enough on Moore's, I'd imagine he looks at the clubs success with more than a hint of regret. Sold the family silver for a pittance. 

 

On the exit plan it's obvious they will have one I just don't get why it's been discussed, it more likely to 20 years away than it is to be 2 years away.

@Dougie Do'insDo'ins would be able to tell you more about how Moores felt because he spoke to him towards the end of H&G time. I always felt the burden of the club was too great for him and despite he possibly feels he sold short, he'd be equally relieved he no longer needs to carry that pressure.