The Coalition

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

 

The electorate are so apathetic, in England especially, we're almost certain to have a decade or more of majority Tory rule.

 

Why is it almost certain?

[Monkeywool]

In my experience nobody who is angry with their own party/voted representative for being too Tory is going to vote Tory. I still wouldn't mind seeing a Labour-Liberal coalition next time around.

 

I'm talking more along the lines of the people who have no particular affiliation with anyone, nor much of an interest in politics. The type of people who vote based on what they read/see on the news. When the propaganda machine from the Tories blame the lib dems for all the failures of the coalition and it tells the people that they need a majority tory government - then it'll happen, through the above mentioned morons.

 

My only hope is that those people who were usually labour support and they voted lib dems in either spoiler tactics or as a protest will outweigh the morons, but I don't hold hope for that. Especially as there are still high amounts of people who actually think that the public service cuts are actually a good thing and are not sending the country into ruin.

[Guest TK-421]

I think disaffected Lib Dem voters will split into three categories:

 

-some will move to Labour

-some will pack voting in through apathy

-a much smaller number will vote Tory

[Rocky Sullivan]

Why is it almost certain?

 

The left vote is too fragmented and/or apathetic. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think disaffected LD voters in the south west, for example, will switch to Labour automatically. Wherever the Lib Dem vote is a narrow first with the tories second or vice versa those constituencies will probably turn blue or bluer. Not because the tories will get a greater share but because the left vote will be split wider.

Labour is still unpopular with floating voters after the last few years of it's reign and it's going to take a lot more than Ed Miliband to bring them back.

The boundary changes will fuck up Labours vote even more and favour the tories which you could say it's almost designed to do.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I can easily envisage another 18 year tory grip on the country ahead of us.

[Rocky Sullivan]

Oh and the more likely that looks the more likely the Scots will vote for independence in a referendum.

[Anny Road]

They need to legalise dog fucking. That might just win over the left.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

The left vote is too fragmented and/or apathetic. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think disaffected LD voters in the south west, for example, will switch to Labour automatically. Wherever the Lib Dem vote is a narrow first with the tories second or vice versa those constituencies will probably turn blue or bluer.

 

If they're disaffected, why would they move their vote to Conservative? That doesn't make any sense at all. If they were voting Liberal Democrat, who were in favour of free education, scraping trident, and against reckless cuts etc., etc., why would they then vote for the Conservatives who are the complete opposite of these things. It just doesn't make sense.

 

 

Not because the tories will get a greater share but because the left vote will be split wider.

Labour is still unpopular with floating voters after the last few years of it's reign and it's going to take a lot more than Ed Miliband to bring them back.

 

But since Miliband has taken leadership of Labour, they've gone up in the polls. They'd win a majority if polls are anywhere near accurate. This is before the party has been 'refounded', has any real policy to unite behind, and before the cuts have started to hit.

 

The boundary changes will fuck up Labours vote even more and favour the tories which you could say it's almost designed to do.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I can easily envisage another 18 year tory grip on the country ahead of us.

 

18 years? They couldn't even win an election when the Labour party was at its lowest ebb, when they had the backing of the best read media, and the full backing of Ashcroft's millions. They've scraped in without winning an election, and now they're significantly behind Labour in the polls. What is it exactly that makes people think we've got 18 years of Conservatism to deal with?

[Rocky Sullivan]

If they're disaffected, why would they move their vote to Conservative? That doesn't make any sense at all. If they were voting Liberal Democrat, who were in favour of free education, scraping trident, and against reckless cuts etc., etc., why would they then vote for the Conservatives who are the complete opposite of these things. It just doesn't make sense.

 

I'm not saying that. The disaffected LD's will vote Labour or Green and split the left of centre vote in that constituency. Letting the tories in through the back door.

 

 

 

 

But since Miliband has taken leadership of Labour, they've gone up in the polls. They'd win a majority if polls are anywhere near accurate. This is before the party has been 'refounded', has any real policy to unite behind, and before the cuts have started to hit.

 

Polls schmoles. The local elections as always are more of a protest vote. Remember 1992.

 

 

 

18 years? They couldn't even win an election when the Labour party was at its lowest ebb, when they had the backing of the best read media, and the full backing of Ashcroft's millions. They've scraped in without winning an election, and now they're significantly behind Labour in the polls. What is it exactly that makes people think we've got 18 years of Conservatism to deal with?

 

The splitting of the left vote I was talking about is like an SDP moment. The more the left is split the more the right is strengthened and the longer it stays in power the more entrenched it becomes. The tories will get stronger before they get weaker.

 

I hate being so negative about Labour's chances and I'll back them all the way. They need to start building bridges with Greens and LD's though because a coalition of the left will be needed.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

I'm not saying that. The disaffected LD's will vote Labour or Green and split the left of centre vote in that constituency. Letting the tories in through the back door.

 

That's a bold prediction. I don't agree and I don't think it's anything like a certainty.

 

Polls schmoles. The local elections as always are more of a protest vote. Remember 1992.

 

Who mentioned local elections?

 

The splitting of the left vote I was talking about is like an SDP moment. The more the left is split the more the right is strengthened and the longer it stays in power the more entrenched it becomes. The tories will get stronger before they get weaker.

 

I hate being so negative about Labour's chances and I'll back them all the way. They need to start building bridges with Greens and LD's though because a coalition of the left will be needed.

 

Well, I don't disagree that unity on the left is needed, but all this talk of a Conservative double decade is, in my opinion, quite far from probable.

[Rocky Sullivan]

That's a bold prediction. I don't agree and I don't think it's anything like a certainty.

 

 

 

Who mentioned local elections?

 

 

Well, I don't disagree that unity on the left is needed, but all this talk of a Conservative double decade is, in my opinion, quite far from probable.

 

No one but I think the polls and local election results as a reflection of opinion go hand in hand this close together.

 

Maybe 18 years was a bit of a histrionic thing to say but it's going to be incredibly difficult to shift them. Especially with the boundary changes that are mooted and with FPTP still in effect.

[Stu Monty]

I like the idea of a coalition of the left, I'm just scratching my head to see which of the parties people think that would comprise of?

 

Coalition of the centre, centre, centre, centre, left...maybe.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

No one but I think the polls and local election results as a reflection of opinion go hand in hand this close together. .

 

They really don't, Rocky. Polls are often targeted towards who they'd vote for in a general election. Many more people vote in GEs than LEs.

 

We've got a fair way to go 'til a general election (even if the coalition were to break up today), and lots of Labour manoeuvring to go with it.

[Stu Monty]

Labour will get a fucking shoeing from the mainstream media if they even suggest that they might be leaning back towards the left, the unions will have to back them with a warchest for any election.

 

That's the great thing about democracy and capitalism, trying to get the 1% to loosen their grip isn't very easy when they have all the money/power/voice.

[Anny Road]

Labour are winning nothing in Scotland with the milkybar kid in charge. He is the personification of an English tit. Blair was at least respected because he had charisma. Milliband has the charisma of algae. Brown was Scottish but never stood a chance. Kier Hardy must be spinning in his grave as the huge number of natural labour seats in Scotland disappear. Naturally they would have gone liberal but there is not a chance of that now.

 

The electorate has been totally disenfranchised up here and even me as a previously staunch unionist is now pro independence. Even if it is just to prevent us being run by Conservatives for the next 20 years.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

Labour are winning nothing in Scotland with the milkybar kid in charge.

 

Entirely different from a general election, so not too much to worry about at the moment.

[Anny Road]

Entirely different from a general election, so not too much to worry about at the moment.

 

Don't think it is mate. I was speaking to our local MP and told him ,and he is a fine chap, that I could not vote for his lot again (lib dems) because his gaffa is a blert. (I'm paraphrasing). He acknowledged it and I was given the impression that the general election result could be even worse for the liberals because that was when the betrayal occurred.

As far as labour go people up here have had it with them and they are seen as just as much a part of the establishment as the conservatives. FFS they lost fife, Browns seat at the last vote. That is unheard of.

Miliband has limited appeal in the south but magnify that by 100 up here.

 

There is talk of the labour party splitting and the Scottish labour party becoming a totally separate entity to it's Millbank namesake. The talk is they could even propose some form of super devolution to fight off the nationalists. They don't even have a leader at the minute so I think it will come too late for the next general election. Especially whilst Salmond is dishing out free prescriptions, care for the elderly and university educations. The SNP are doing a good job and traditional labour and liberal voters are taking note.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

Unless there's a massive change, Anny, the General Elections are massively different. Labour do far, far better in GEs.

 

Labour do need something better in Scotland though, that's for sure. It was an appalling result in the Scottish Elections.

[Anny Road]

Change is in the air mate. I'm sure a huge number of people in England are sick to death of this at the moment but unfortunately for you you're stuck with it. The Scots are seeing another way out. We cannot get rid of Tory rule by voting for anyone else other than the SNP. Tory ideals are an anathema in Scotland. It is arguably a far more progressive political society. That is impart due to it's relatively small size but also it's demographic.

 

If after voting for the libs in huge numbers at the last election as a direct rejection of tory policies and labour , you remember no tuition fees, PR all that gubbins to have that end up with a tory government will not be forgotten.

 

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

Amazing change that is. However, it's not arguable that Scotland is more progressive. It just fucking is. Again though, General Elections are a whole other ball game.

 

2010 GE:

 

[Anny Road]

As a scouser living in Scotland who has no allegiance to the braveheart spirit and all that bollocks I cannot think of one single reason to vote Labour ever again. I thought the lib dems would do that but I was wrong. I want out of the whole shithole Westminster is now and independence is the way to achieve it.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

I'd be shocked if Independence was achieved to be honest. I can't say I'd blame Scotland for doing it, but I just can't see it.

[Anny Road]

It is inevitable. Be it now or in 10 years. Even massive unionists here I know are now saying lets go for it. Scotland is about to get twatted and these feelings will only get stronger.

[Section_31]

I doubt Scotland would be any better off if it was independent, but in times of crisis people look inward. Nationalism is on the rise everywhere.

[Anny Road]

I doubt Scotland would be any better off if it was independent, but in times of crisis people look inward. Nationalism is on the rise everywhere.

 

That is very true mate but in many respects the Conservative party is very much the English national party. They serve their own interests and have for a generation had no mandate to govern Scotland. To see them in government sends shivers down the spine of the country. Just like it does in Liverpool Leeds Newcastle.

[Section_31]

That is very true mate but in many respects the Conservative party is very much the English national party. They serve their own interests and have for a generation had no mandate to govern Scotland. To see them in government sends shivers down the spine of the country. Just like it does in Liverpool Leeds Newcastle.

 

I think the north views the Tories as the party of the south, but that itself is probably not even accurate. They're the party of wealth and vested interest groups. They used to be the party of 'the establishment' as was, but now they're far more dangerous - they're the party of the megacorporation and of the international superclass. I hate them so much it actually hurts my bones, but what I hate more is the fact they people of England tolerate them.