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Just looking at the forecast tracker on Fivethirtyeight for 2016, the numbers for this time of year were pretty similar to what they are now.

 

The cunt could still win this.  Clinton's lead evaporated after Comey announced the investigation into the emails (on 28th October).  There's still time for someone to drop some shit on Biden.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ 

 

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6 hours ago, niallers said:

Republicans in california have been setting up false drop boxes for Democrats to use, as a lot of them have basically voting collecting parties where they can all come with their ballots and give them to the host, who in turn drops them all off.

There's no way in hell that those ballots will ever be dropped off to the correct place and thus more votes will be suppressed. The cunts will try fucking anything won't they?

Collecting votes and not submitting them should result in a long jail sentence. Surely its an attack in democracy like any other they bleet on about. Still think Trump will win, humanity is a shit show.

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Nah. 

 

Raegan and Dubya were always chatting shit. 

 

This is the thing with the Presidency, it doesn't matter how retarded the man in the chair is as long as they surround themselves with the right people. If you've got the right person running your staff, running the state department, running the CIA/FBI etc the place kind of ticks along. They even get advised on what decisions to take. 

 

What makes Trump dangerous is that he appoints people as though it's one of his country clubs. Jared Kushner, property developer, is his middle east peace envoy. His ambassador to the UK is an NFL owner. Pompeo is just a fucking disaster. 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Geoff Woade said:

It’s bizarre, is the whole campaign based on ‘at least I’m not Trump’?

Is there anything else he has going for him?

I think he's seen as a return to the 'ordinary'. He was Obama's VP and he's been around in their politics for decades. After Trump, could most people have coped with the idea of doing something really 'experimental' again? Maybe they will next time, but after four years of this relentless mental and spiritual abuse surely a boring man with smart people around him can't be that bad. 

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Dubya was surrounded by some of the most deplorable people in American politics; especially the neocons dictating his foreign policy. I mean obviously Trump's a shitshow, but if this ends up being his only term, has it really been more damaging than Dubya's two? Honestly not sure it has.

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36 minutes ago, Duff Man said:

Dubya was surrounded by some of the most deplorable people in American politics; especially the neocons dictating his foreign policy. I mean obviously Trump's a shitshow, but if this ends up being his only term, has it really been more damaging than Dubya's two? Honestly not sure it has.

 

220,000 americans might argue it has, if they were still alive.

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1 hour ago, Duff Man said:

Dubya was surrounded by some of the most deplorable people in American politics; especially the neocons dictating his foreign policy. I mean obviously Trump's a shitshow, but if this ends up being his only term, has it really been more damaging than Dubya's two? Honestly not sure it has.

Mate he has done irreparable damage he to the population. Has the states ever been more divided ? At least Bush had a few invasions the majority could gung ho and get behind. Trumps taken a knife right through American society 

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33 minutes ago, Aw Geez said:

220,000 americans might argue it has, if they were still alive.

Bit silly, but over a million Iraqis might argue it hasn't, if they were still alive. And whilst not an exact analogue with Covid, did Dubya manage Katrina any better? Pretty sure people weren't exactly queuing up to praise his response, there.

 

I guess the point is that whilst there's obviously been risible cronyism with Trump, has the net result been that much different to other Repulbican presidencies? And that's before you get into the fact that some of his other appointments, such as Bolton and Kudlow, are basically reprising the roles they had (or similar) under Bush Snr and Reagan.

 

I think behind all the insane press conferences and rallies, much of it has been business as usual, a few notable exceptions aside.

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6 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Mate he has done irreparable damage he to the population. Has the states ever been more divided ? At least Bush had a few invasions the majority could gung ho and get behind. Trumps taken a knife right through American society 

I'd argue those divisions have always been there, and that while Trump has undoubtedly stoked the flames, he really isn't the reason they're actually there. Not sure if you're serious about the invasions.

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9 minutes ago, Duff Man said:

I'd argue those divisions have always been there, and that while Trump has undoubtedly stoked the flames, he really isn't the reason they're actually there. Not sure if you're serious about the invasions.

Of course they have but it takes a trigger and he hasn’t just triggered it but he has openly stoked the flames of it. 

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1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

Of course they have but it takes a trigger and he hasn’t just triggered it but he has openly stoked the flames of it. 

Sure, but Bush and Reagan didn't do anything to heal those divides, either, and both leaned into themes of social conservatism/blaming marginalised groups just as Trump does; the only difference being they were a little more subtle about it.

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26 minutes ago, Duff Man said:

Sure, but Bush and Reagan didn't do anything to heal those divides, either, and both leaned into themes of social conservatism/blaming marginalised groups just as Trump does; the only difference being they were a little more subtle about it.

Trump has been an absolute disaster. 

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I think Trump is peerless in the social havoc he's wrought on the United States. The concept of fake news or of journalists being the 'enemy of the people' didn't really exist in America at its current scale until he started spouting it. Nor did the idea that you couldn't believe what your own eyes and ears were telling you, Orwell style. 

 

If Trump had invaded Iraq and it went badly, he'd simply telly you that he hadn't invaded Iraq and that he in fact, didn't even know where Iraq was. If you challenged that his supporters would accuse you of being part of a Dem conspiracy to frame the President in a bad light. 

 

The racial divides have definitely always been there, but nobody has stoked them or emboldened the right to the extent he has. Bush had people like Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell in his cabinet, who, regardless of their policies, were pretty fierce intellects. Trump has been known to refer to people as 'where's my African American?'.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

I think Trump is peerless in the social havoc he's wrought on the United States. The concept of fake news or of journalists being the 'enemy of the people' didn't really exist in America at its current scale until he started spouting it. Nor did the idea that you couldn't believe what your own eyes and ears were telling you, Orwell style. 

 

If Trump had invaded Iraq and it went badly, he'd simply telly you that he hadn't invaded Iraq and that he in fact, didn't even know where Iraq was. If you challenged that his supporters would accuse you of being part of a Dem conspiracy to frame the President in a bad light. 

 

The racial divides have definitely always been there, but nobody has stoked them or emboldened the right to the extent he has. Bush had people like Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell in his cabinet, who, regardless of their policies, were pretty fierce intellects. Trump has been known to refer to people as 'where's my African American?'.

 

 

But that's the whole point. Whatever the comparative intellects of the people around these presidents, the resultant policy - the stuff that actually matters - isn't really all that different, and in some of the cases where it is, such as foreign policy, you can quite easily make the case that it's actually been better under Trump. Kushner clowning around in the middle east with Tonty, making peace deals that nobody will sign, is far more preferable than 20 year wars that result in widescale death, destruction, and destabilisation. And as for old Colin, he could have had an intellect of 160 or more, for all it mattered; the fucker still went to the UN and tried to bullshit them into signing off on a war he knew was predicated on a massive honking lie.

 

I'll grant you Trump is a step-change in terms of rhetoric, and whipping up his base, but Reagan was just as gratuitous in private: he referred to African diplomats as monkeys on a phone call to Nixon, for instance. The fact that he was a little better at hiding his racism doesn't mean he wasn't just as racist.

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