Donald Trump

[Biscao]

Edit - Just had a look at the data, very much a poll of Republican voters. 75% of the respondents consider themselves Conservative or Very Conservative - 5% consider themselves Liberal or Very Liberal.

 

That's not the point though. He shouldn't be anywhere near those numbers, even from republican minorities.

[SasaS]

It’ s because the world always turns out to be a much worse place than we thought it was.

[Guest Numero Veinticinco]

I'll be voting for Donally Trumpton. 

 

[Jairzinho]

Had no idea Rod Stewart was running.

[SasaS]

Robert Palmer.

[Nunavut Patrick]

Caitlyn Jenner

[Stu Monty]

That's not the point though. He shouldn't be anywhere near those numbers, even from republican minorities.

 

It very much is the point. We are talking about him getting elected so the fact that he's pulling 40% of very conservative minorities, in a question in which they do not have the option of a democrat as an alternative, is not really very significant. 

 

Just looking again and I'd be struggling to take much of it seriously. They spoke to just 10 black people for the poll.

 

So he's polling 40% of ten black people who statistically have a republican bias in a race where no democrat is on the card. 

 

Not sweating on that too much. 

[3 Stacks]

There has never been a weaker/more insane bunch of Republican candidates in American history. Trump's numbers only look good because the alternatives are somehow even more deranged than he is. He's also been a household name outside of politics so his celebrity has given him an advantage. For many people, it's a case of choosing a punch in the face instead of a kick in the balls (Cruz, Rubio, etc...)

[Stu Monty]

Just an aside on that poll. Two muslims said they would vote for Trump. 

 

Ha! Talk about turkeys voting for xmas.

[Biscao]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

The spread against Hillary is quite narrow actually.

[stringvest]

Will Trump follow through on his promises though, or will it all be just hot air?

[VladimirIlyich]

I think the American public are more likely to vote for Trump than a woman. At least Obama was a Black 'man.' Is a female President,and one who has been publicly humiliated by her husband,a step too far?

[Stu Monty]

[Biscao]

Hillary doesn't really do much better:

 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

[Bobby Hundreds]

It's going to be Hilary Clinton isn't it. More of the same war.. Bankers and big corporation a bigger growing inequality.

[Jairzinho]

I wonder how many people who are currently supporting Sanders will either not bother voting or support Jill Stein when Clinton is inevitably named Democratic leader. They'll face the same dilemma that we would have done if Yvette Cooper had become leader of the Labour party.

 

I'm guessing Clinton will still find more than enough votes.

[Bobby Hundreds]

 

They all lie but she is seriously dodgy at least with trump its clear as fuck he is a mong.

[Dr Nowt]

 

 

They all lie but she is seriously dodgy at least with trump its clear as fuck he is a mong.

Wouldn't buy a used car from her, let alone elect her to lead a country.

[Bob]

If anyone has watched Veep, that last video might have well been made by them. If she becomes president the people can only blame themselves.

[Dougie Do'ins]

I think Trump doing well at this stage says more about the other candidates than it does about him. People are just bored and fed up with what they're offered. Sanders has benefited for the same reason, as has Corbyn. 

I'd wouldn't call being leader of the Labour party benefiting.

 

I'll be voting for Donally Trumpton. 

 

So that's what Sandi Toksvig is doing these days.

[Kevin D]

"...one thing that seems to be missing in the theory in the presumed cluelessness or disinterest in the rise of Donald Trump by the Republican establishment is that they have a backstop against Donald Trump: Hillary Clinton. She is everything that the GOP insiders could want in a GOP candidate: Interventionist foreign policy; supporter of the surveillance state; big bankers’ best friend; free-trade agreements that reward corporations over US workers; relaxed immigration policy, etc. I have trouble identifying one substantive policy issue where Hillary Clinton deviates from the GOP elite. Even Obamacare was a reward to the insurance company with the mandate (recognizing that it could not have been passed in any other way)."

[Ne Moe Imya]

Wouldn't buy a used car from her, let alone elect her to lead a country.

 

What if the alternative were Donald Trump?

 

I have said several times in this thread that I was 100% confident that Trump would not earn the Republican nomination.  I genuinely thought that he was too unpopular among two of the key three groups of GOP voters (evangelicals and fiscal conservatives) to possibly get the nod.  Well, I'm wavering in my belief.  The Republicans have about 2 weeks to save their party from the Donald.  They have to convince Kasich for sure, and probably Cruz as well, to drop out and let it be a race between Rubio and Trump, to have much of a chance of stopping him.  

 

The absolute best case scenario for the Rs if the race stays as it is and no one drops out, is that it goes to a contested convention.  That would be high political drama for sure.  But the more likely result is that the people that hate Trump split their votes and he wins with about 35% of the total R vote.  Then he goes down in huge flames in the general to Hillary, taking many of the Republican Congressmen and Senators with him.  He would be an unmitigated disaster for them.

 

If I were Rubio I'd be on the horn to Kasich promising him the VP spot to drop out today and endorse me.  That would give the Republicans a huge edge in Florida and Ohio, so it's a win-win.  Then I'd try everything to try to convince Cruz to lay down his weapons and get out, while recognising that the odds are he's going to be in until he runs out of money.  I can't understand how the Republicans haven't done this already, it really mystifies me.  Rubio/Kasich would be pretty strong favourites against Hillary/? (Heinrich? Clark? Vilsack?) in a general, I would think.

 

Trump's continued success is both confusing and terrifying.  It means there are at least 20% or so of the American voting public who have completely disengaged with the political process enough that they would support a borderline fascist lunatic if it meant real change.  And a Trump presidency (which is totally impossible and will never happen) would mean real change.  Just change in the wrong direction.

[Moo]

I think the American public are more likely to vote for Trump than a woman. At least Obama was a Black 'man.' Is a female President,and one who has been publicly humiliated by her husband,a step too far?

This.

[alles ist gut]

[Section_31]

If Hilary takes the white house I expect her and Merkel to neutralise Putin by bitching about him behind his back.