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He's going to win the nomination, get used to it.

 

And if the chips fall his way he's capable of beating either Clinton or Sanders. Anybody casually writing him off for the White House needs to wake up. If the last year in politics has taught us anything, surely it's not to dismiss anti-establishment candidates who get people fired up.

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He'll probably win the nomination. But Clinton (or Sanders) will then win the Presidency in a landside the likes of which has never been seen before.  His supporters are gobby fruitcakes.  And like all gobby fruitcakes they are very very loud.  But every reports show that his own party are likely to vote against him in quite big numbers.  There is simply no chance at all he'll become the President.  He simply doesn't have any support away from the gobby fruitcake faction.  All the rest will vote for Clinton or Sanders.   That's my take on it.  He's just too mental and the every day voter knows that and will ensure he doesn't get in.  

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We'll see in early March, after a quarter of the delegates have been won. If an acceptable anti-Trump candidate does not emerge by then, the one everyone will rally around against Donald, he may win the nomination. Next surprise step may be a strong independent joining the presidential race.

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He's going to win the nomination, get used to it.

 

And if the chips fall his way he's capable of beating either Clinton or Sanders. Anybody casually writing him off for the White House needs to wake up. If the last year in politics has taught us anything, surely it's not to dismiss anti-establishment candidates who get people fired up.

People far more clued up than me are dismissing him. They seem to be pretty sure that the numbers just cannot add up and that he'll be a disaster for the Republican party.

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It amazes me how much the Americans engage with their politics with their huge rallies. They actually seem to like their politicians and don't seem to have the same cynicism we reserve for politicians in the UK. I generally vote for Labour, not through any kind of devotion or because I like their MPs, but mostly because I see them as the lesser of the two evils we have as the options to govern the country. The Americans by contrast seem to really buy in to the personalities involved, even if for a lot of them it's just the one they think they would like to have a beer with.

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It amazes me how much the Americans engage with their politics with their huge rallies. They actually seem to like their politicians and don't seem to have the same cynicism we reserve for politicians in the UK. I generally vote for Labour, not through any kind of devotion or because I like their MPs, but mostly because I see them as the lesser of the two evils we have as the options to govern the country. The Americans by contrast seem to really buy in to the personalities involved, even if for a lot of them it's just the one they think they would like to have a beer with.

 

97% of Americans can has a cheezburger though, to be fair.

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People far more clued up than me are dismissing him. They seem to be pretty sure that the numbers just cannot add up and that he'll be a disaster for the Republican party.

I only use the BBC to keep up to date on this but it seems every one they have giving a opinion are saying he's got every chance. As they say, 'it's America. Anything can happen'.

 

Sanders is 74 and if elected will be almost 80 by the time the second term is due. Just doesn't seem right that someone could be running the country into his early 80s.

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I only use the BBC to keep up to date on this but it seems every one they have giving a opinion are saying he's got every chance. As they say, 'it's America. Anything can happen'.

 

Sanders is 74 and if elected will be almost 80 by the time the second term is due. Just doesn't seem right that someone could be running the country into his early 80s.

To be fair though, if that's someone's reasoning "anything can happen", then you have to question the validity.

 

I follow some US Electoral polling wonks. They are giving Sanders and Trump virtually no chance at all.

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It amazes me how much the Americans engage with their politics with their huge rallies. They actually seem to like their politicians and don't seem to have the same cynicism we reserve for politicians in the UK. I generally vote for Labour, not through any kind of devotion or because I like their MPs, but mostly because I see them as the lesser of the two evils we have as the options to govern the country. The Americans by contrast seem to really buy in to the personalities involved, even if for a lot of them it's just the one they think they would like to have a beer with.

 

Americans seem to be much less cynical than Europeans anyway, they are a pretty positive, uninhibited lot. Also they really seldom understand the concept of irony, mostly because they don't have to.

 

I only use the BBC to keep up to date on this but it seems every one they have giving a opinion are saying he's got every chance. As they say, 'it's America. Anything can happen'.

 

Sanders is 74 and if elected will be almost 80 by the time the second term is due. Just doesn't seem right that someone could be running the country into his early 80s.

 

Reagan was almost 70 when elected and he also had Alzheimer's. Conservatives still hailed him as one of their greatest, and he had some crazy approval rating at the end of second term. When he was close to 80.

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He'll probably win the nomination. But Clinton (or Sanders) will then win the Presidency in a landside the likes of which has never been seen before. His supporters are gobby fruitcakes. And like all gobby fruitcakes they are very very loud. But every reports show that his own party are likely to vote against him in quite big numbers. There is simply no chance at all he'll become the President. He simply doesn't have any support away from the gobby fruitcake faction. All the rest will vote for Clinton or Sanders. That's my take on it. He's just too mental and the every day voter knows that and will ensure he doesn't get in.

 

He has big electoral plus points against both Democrats. Against Clinton he could get a lot of mileage out of portraying himself as the man standing up for ordinary Americans versus the ultimate Washington insider. Lots of people might think he's a lunatic, but equally lots of people are sick to the back teeth of the political establishment, and there probably isn't a single person in America who embodies this more than Hillary Clinton. Plus there are lots of rumours about potentially very damaging revelations from her personal emails.

 

If he's up against Sanders then the socialist label is almost as toxic as being an atheist. It's the kind of thing that will bring Republicans out to vote even if they despise Trump, because for all his mental shit a self-declared socialist in the White House would be even worse.

 

Then you have the prospect of Michael Bloomberg running as an independent, which I think is inevitable if Sanders gets the nomination. There's a danger he'd take more centrist swing votes from Sanders than from Trump. And if there's a major terrorist attack against the US or against its citizens overseas, that will drive millions of voters to Trump.

 

I can't share your confidence I'm afraid, too much conventional political wisdom has been thrown in the shredder of late.

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We'll see in early March, after a quarter of the delegates have been won. If an acceptable anti-Trump candidate does not emerge by then, the one everyone will rally around against Donald, he may win the nomination. Next surprise step may be a strong independent joining the presidential race.

Who is this anti-Trump candidate going to be? If any of the other contenders were capable of landing a punch on him they'd have shown it by now, surely?

 

I think Trump's rivals will be very wary of rounding on him now with the momentum he's built up. As they drop out of the race they're just as likely to be eyeing the running mate slot as to be looking to stop him.

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People far more clued up than me are dismissing him. They seem to be pretty sure that the numbers just cannot add up and that he'll be a disaster for the Republican party.

I follow some US Electoral polling wonks. They are giving Sanders and Trump virtually no chance at all.

On what grounds? Which are the primaries they can't win, and why?

 

As regards the election itself, have they crunched the numbers for a Bloomberg candidacy and a terrorist attack?

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