Donald Trump

[Anubis]

He is a massive racist gammon headed cunt.

 

His daughter though....

 

 

I'd elect her Queen of my willy

Even though her dad's already been there?

[Jairzinho]

I only use the BBC to keep up to date on this but it seems every one they have giving a opinion are saying he's got every chance. As they say, 'it's America. Anything can happen'.

 

Sanders is 74 and if elected will be almost 80 by the time the second term is due. Just doesn't seem right that someone could be running the country into his early 80s.

 

As a voter I wouldn't give a fuck if he was over 100 and bed bound. Him not being a corrupt, neo liberal, psychopath would be enough reason to vote for him.

[General Dryness]

Would you want to go where Donald's been?

Sloppy thousands.

 

 

Just remember you will have second hand touched Donald's pork sword.

 

 

Even though her dad's already been there?

When did the GF get such incredible standards? She's still extremely tasty regardless of who has been through her.

 

Remaining on topic, it beggars belief that Trump is even participating in politics. Only in America.

[Nunavut Patrick]

 

 

 

 

 

When did the GF get such incredible standards? She's still extremely tasty regardless of who has been through her.

 

Remaining on topic, it beggars belief that Trump is even participating in politics. Only in America.

Ronald Reagan.

[General Dryness]

Ronald Reagan.

Previous form doesn't make it any less incredible.

[zigackly]

To be fair though, if that's someone's reasoning "anything can happen", then you have to question the validity.

 

I follow some US Electoral polling wonks. They are giving Sanders and Trump virtually no chance at all.

 

They were probably saying the same when Sanders was 50 points behind in NH just a couple of months ago and Trump was being written off as a joke candidate?

[Neil G]

For those who've read Isaac Asimov's Foundation trilogy, I'm starting to see the pollsters as Hari Seldon and the psychohistorians, and Trump and Sanders and the wave of anti-establishment anger they've unleashed as the Mule. A rigorously calculated and brilliantly accurate system of prediction, completely thrown by an unknown variable it failed to anticipate.

[Hooch]

Donning my tin hat here but it's telling that mainstream news outlets are focussing on Trumps success and then watering down the coverage of Bernies equal if not bigger success against the odds.

[Bjornebye]

Ivanka Trump can shit on my chest like. Fuck the senate.

[Stu Monty]

They were probably saying the same when Sanders was 50 points behind in NH just a couple of months ago and Trump was being written off as a joke candidate?

No, they were predicting this might happen as it has so far.

 

I'm leaning on them as they are clearly far more informed and their analysis of the different possibilities seems to make sense.

 

They flagged up serious issues for both candidates.

[Stu Monty]

On what grounds? Which are the primaries they can't win, and why?

 

As regards the election itself, have they crunched the numbers for a Bloomberg candidacy and a terrorist attack?

Can't remember without checking but minorities are a problem for both of them. Trump has big negative numbers even within Republicans, before you even get to non-republicans.

 

They were talking about Bloomberg or another establishment candidate. The first damages Sanders more, the later damages Clinton more, if I remember correctly.

 

Terrorist attack and the clown car is a far more realistic prospect.

[Jairzinho]

If Sanders starts doing too well might be worth slinging a few quid on a terrorist attack.

 

I mean, er...

[zigackly]

No, they were predicting this might happen as it has so far.

 

I'm leaning on them as they are clearly far more informed and their analysis of the different possibilities seems to make sense.

 

They flagged up serious issues for both candidates.

 

Be interesting to see how it plays out, but the Clintons definitely seem worried, since their campaign can now be summed up as attack Bernie rather than discuss what her policies are. I would say Sanders is gathering a LOT of momentum right now, just like a certain unknown black politician in 2008 who won against Clinton when the serious political pundits were saying he couldn't for many of the same reasons.

 

One thing is clear from this election so far; whatever the establishment want they are fighting a massive groundswell of anti-establishment feeling right now.

[Jose Jones]

I believe though that the Democratic voters that Clinton is now doing well with are the same ones Obama did well with - wealthy whites and the ethnic minorities.  While Sanders gets the young and really liberal white folks, who actually sided more with Clinton when she was up against Obama.

[Neil G]

Can't remember without checking but minorities are a problem for both of them. Trump has big negative numbers even within Republicans, before you even get to non-republicans.

They were talking about Bloomberg or another establishment candidate. The first damages Sanders more, the later damages Clinton more, if I remember correctly.

Terrorist attack and the clown car is a far more realistic prospect.

What percentage of registered Republicans are minorities? Wouldn't have thought it would be that high. Trump will obviously have problems with the Latino vote in the election if he wins the nomination, he might try to offset it by picking a Latino running mate.

 

The comments I've seen from the Sanders camp on minorities centre around his lack of media exposure so far. Until recently he's been seen as a fringe candidate and a no-hoper, and hasn't been taken seriously by big sections of the electorate. Black and Latino voters are disproportionately affected by the issues Sanders is majoring on - low pay, insecure jobs, inadequate health insurance, limited access to college education - so his campaign's hope seems to be that if they can get enough boots on the ground they can persuade minority voters that he'll genuinely address these issues, whereas Clinton will just tinker around the edges.

 

Which sites are you looking at? 538?

[TheHowieLama]

Sanders media blitz today mentioned a few times why he would connect with the minority vote. His talking point was a reforming of the criminal justice system, cuz, well cuz that should resonate....erm....

[Alan Sex]

[Stu Monty]

What percentage of registered Republicans are minorities? Wouldn't have thought it would be that high. Trump will obviously have problems with the Latino vote in the election if he wins the nomination, he might try to offset it by picking a Latino running mate.

 

The comments I've seen from the Sanders camp on minorities centre around his lack of media exposure so far. Until recently he's been seen as a fringe candidate and a no-hoper, and hasn't been taken seriously by big sections of the electorate. Black and Latino voters are disproportionately affected by the issues Sanders is majoring on - low pay, insecure jobs, inadequate health insurance, limited access to college education - so his campaign's hope seems to be that if they can get enough boots on the ground they can persuade minority voters that he'll genuinely address these issues, whereas Clinton will just tinker around the edges.

 

Which sites are you looking at? 538?

 

More Twitter than websites specifically but I think that Micah Cohen and Nate Silver are both involved with that 538, so yeah.

[SasaS]

Anyone seen any numbers of what the narrowing of the field will do to Trump’s nomination chances, as in where is he the second or third choice candidates?

 

He seems to be a very divisive candidate with little crossover potential, so if the votes for the candidates dropping out are disproportionally spread, every drop out will strengthen his closest rivals.  Christie is now out, Fiorina, probably more to follow by March.

[Section_31]

Do you know what amazes me about America and American politics? They've actively destroyed themselves by pursuing neo liberal politics, destroyed themselves socially, economically and militarily, and yet the right wing achieves popularity and success by promising to 'make America great again'. It's like Fred West trying to sell you patio furniture.  

[Jose Jones]

Anyone seen any numbers of what the narrowing of the field will do to Trump’s nomination chances, as in where is he the second or third choice candidates?

 

He seems to be a very divisive candidate with little crossover potential, so if the votes for the candidates dropping out are disproportionally spread, every drop out will strengthen his closest rivals. Christie is now out, Fiorina, probably more to follow by March.

From what I have read Trump has about 30% of the Republican support - obviously more in some states and less in others. So long as there are more than 2 or 3 other candidates he is likely to win a lot of states. However most of the other 70% don't like him. Ted Cruz is pretty similar but with slightly less support and different demographics.

 

As there are still 3 or 4 candidates vying to be the "mainstream " candidate both Trump and Cruz are likely to both have decent chances at getting the nomination.

But if a consensus normal candidate emerges quickly they are likely to win.

[setreal]

Funnily enough, Trumpo seems to attract a lot of the more moderate Reps (if there is such a thing etc). The evangelical loons aren't buying his faux Christianity - understandable given his quotes from the past. So people like Christie dropping out (and Kasich once that happens) may actually help Trump. 

 

The interesting thing about all this is that all the household Washington conventional wisdom types are at a loss why their robot talking points politics aint working anymore. Also it's great to see what is does to the wankers at FoxNews, who are equally confused and beefing it out internally.

[Jose Jones]

The best thing about Trump is that he hates Fox News and has fucked them off.

[SasaS]

If Trump is nobody's second or third choice candidate, and for example, Rubio, Kasich or Jeb Bush have a lot ot second and third placese, then dropping out of candidates were they are a second or third choice would benefit them. It seems that people who would even consider backing Trump for the nomination are already doing so, or not?

[Jose Jones]

If Trump is nobody's second or third choice candidate, and for example, Rubio, Kasich or Jeb Bush have a lot ot second and third placese, then dropping out of candidates were they are a second or third choice would benefit them. It seems that people who would even consider backing Trump for the nomination are already doing so, or not?

Yeah that's right I think, but if you win states then you get delegates so by the time the other candidates are winnowed down Trump might have already won enough.