How we get out of this mess

[Toddler]

This email is cathartic for me, so bear with me. I had intended to post it on Sunday but the site went down. It's still timely though, until the next game anyway!

 

I've held a board meeting with myself today as I promised I would after the Newcastle game. This arrangement was made after the defeat at Stoke, and not as a reaction to Saturday's defeat per se. I said in the aftermath of the Stoke game that we shouldn't make rash decisions when we're down about a poor result, and hence I set the Newcastle game as a reasonable time to judge where we are; bearing in mind that if things were not good enough then we would have a chance to bring in a new manager in time to make good use of the transfer window, if necessary.

 

So in my desparation to make some sense of this mess I've crunched some statistics so that you can all be convinced of my insanity.

 

The perception has been that we have improved recently and moved gradually back up the table (prior to our knockback Saturday). To an extent that is true: after 5 games we were 16th, after 10 games we were 12th, 15 games and we were 10th, even after yesterday, after 17 games we are 9th. So yes there has been a gradual improvement. Surely therefore if you project that trend forwards we end up fourth before the end of the season? Wrong.

 

After 5 games we were 3 points off 4th spot. After 10 games we were 5 points away. After 15 games we were 7 points off. Now after 17 games we are 9 points of 4th place. So in respect of that specific target, we're actually going backwards.

 

So where is it all going wrong? I think everyone is well aware that this is as a result of our away form. Over the last 17 games we have gathered 70% of available points at home, but only 19% of those available away. This gives us an average of 43% in total, both home and away. If you look across the weeks, the overal total fluctuates around 45% (i.e its down today, but if we win against Fulham it will go up again, drop points against Blackpool and its back down again). So 45% is our level of performance at the moment and has been over recent weeks.

 

If you project that forward over the whole of the season, this equates to 52 points in May.

 

What are 52 points worth? Last year that would have got you 9th place. On a good season it could get you an 8th place finish, and on others, 10th. Over the last 10 years of the Premier League, the average position is 9th. That's 2 places below Rafa's worst finish, which got him the sack. So clearly this can't go on.

 

So how many points are required to finish 4th? Last year it was 68 (Spurs actually got 70, but 5th place was only 67). In 2003-4 you could have finished 4th on 57 points. So over the last 10 seasons the average for 4th spot is 68 points. That's 60% of available points over the season.

 

So for us to finish 4th we need to aim for a 60% return, and I remind you that as of now we are only on a 43% return.

 

So how realistic is that? If we maintain our home record at 70%, we need to get our overall away form upto 50% from the current 19%. That means we need to get 24 points from the 10 remaining away games. We can only afford to drop 6 more points away. If you think Hodgson can deliver this, then we could be ok!

 

What about if we improve our home form slightly (or rather continue with the more recent form) and get the season long average upto 75%? That would mean the away form only needs to rise to 45%. That would mean we could afford to drop another 7 points at home (one defeat and two draws) and upto 9 points away from home (three more defeats).

 

If we bumped our home form up so that we got an 80% average, we only need to raise away form to 40%. That equates to 4 more points dropped at home (one defeat, or two draws) and upto 15 points dropped away (5 defeats, or 3 defeats and 3 draws).

 

I'd suggest that one of the last two options could be within the manager's capability; if you accept that the home form recently has been good, with Torres and Cole yet to become sharp again, Agger, Carragher and Gerrard yet to return from injury, and possibly a decent signing or two in January. And if you also accept that the last two away games have been more attacking in principle, but lack the proper execution, and that that execution can be improved upon.

 

The Blackpool game on Boxing Day is therefore the next real milestone.

 

If you want to take a more short term approach with a view to potentially rushing through a decision at the beginning of January if things do need a change, then you can take a look at the raft of games that come in quick succession over Christmas and New Year. There are 5 fixtures now between next weekend and the first week of January. Some of these fixtures pit competing teams against each other.

 

If we maintain a strong home form and can get 4 points from 6 away (a sharp improvement in itself) then we could pull in 13 points. Over the same period you could realistically predict City only getting 8, Chelsea getting 11, Bolton only 7, Spurs only 11, Sunderland 7 and Newcastle 7. That would then move us up to 6th and we would be 7 points of 4th spot again. A move in the right direction.

 

With an unbeaten run in the Europa league behind him, a clear will to develop young players from within, an improvement in home form over recent weeks and a more positive playing style away from home (yet still poorly executed), plus a reluctance to become a club that turns over managers on a regular basis, the Board (i.e me) has therefore decided to give Hodgson a vote of confidence and to review performance again after the Blackburn game in January.

 

Now I will do something more constructive with my time - but I do feel slightly better.

 

(This is were you now all neg me and tell me to get a life....)

[StevieH]

[Wor Horse]

Sack Roy.

[The_Goat]

Beat me to it

[chauncey]

Surprisingly articulate for a toddler.

[john23liverpool]

So to summarise...........

 

We are doing quite good at home, but are shit away from home, and if we want to be higher in the league we need to win more games.

 

Thats basicallly the gist isnt it?

[Toddler]

Surprisingly articulate for a toddler.

 

Thankyou. I managed to get a nursery education before the Coalition sold the world.

[1892-LFCWasBorn]

Special delivery for Roy:

 

[Section_31]

Combination of the fact we've got a shit squad and Roy being a shite manager, a recipe for football disaster to be sure. The shitness of ths squad is rarely mentioned though and can not be overstated.

[Juan Galonso]

Even if our away form was half of what our home form is we would be sitting pretty in the top 4 now.

 

Small details have gone against us in the last two games which while still very disappointing is encouraging as well. We missed easy chances at critical stages of the last two away games when we were on top and ended up paying the price. It whilst still not being good enough because we lost is better than us just not doing ANYTHING away from home as was the case in the first few away games and giving up in meek surrender as we did v City and Everton in particular. We have got 0 points from the last couple of away games but it could quite easily have been 6 if we had been more clinical at certain times of the game.

 

Torres was going to be the key to how well or poorly we did this season. He has in the main, stank the place out, until we get a couple of players to lessen the goalscoring burden while Torres is out of sorts we will continue to struggle away in particular.

[Toddler]

So to summarise...........

 

We are doing quite good at home, but are shit away from home, and if we want to be higher in the league we need to win more games.

 

Thats basicallly the gist isnt it?

 

No, no, no. Its so much more.....it's a lot more.....it's about the.......I think you're missing the........Er, actually..........................yeah.

[Dan]

so by your calculations we will win 2 of our away games out of 10 and 9 out of 11home games, 6 points out of 30 is a disgracful figure to be associated with liverpool football club,and your basically saying we will win nearly all our home games aswell,which under roy hodgson is unrealistic.how can you defend a manager that has won two away games in nearly two seasons??

 

(im not saying that you were defending hodgson,i meant it as how can anyone defend hodgson by the way mate)

[chauncey]

So much grooming going on in this thread.

 

Worse than Hodgapologists, the lot of you.

[Mr Nando]

Sack Roy.

No other answer required.

[Toddler]

so by your calculations we will win 2 of our away games out of 10 and 9 out of 11home games, 6 points out of 30 is a disgracful figure to be associated with liverpool football club,and your basically saying we will win nearly all our home games aswell,which under roy hodgson is unrealistic.how can you defend a manager that has won two away games in nearly two seasons??

 

(im not saying that you were defending hodgson,i meant it as how can anyone defend hodgson by the way mate)

 

Thanks for clarifying the last point - this isn't a defend Roy thread. It's a see if there is any light at the end of the tunnel thread.

 

In answer to your first question though, basically, no that's not what I'm saying. We need to win most our away games from now on to get back up to a 40% average over the season 'cos our away form has been so shite up til now. I'm not doing the sums again cos it hurt my head first time round, but it's all up there in the first thread.

 

It'll still be a big ask, but it can be done, whilst still losing the odd game along the way.

 

Then again, that might just be an oncoming train I can see.

[Guest San Don]

I agree with the gist of this thread. We'll win something like 70 - 75% of our home games but away games, well, expect draws at best and frequent defeats!

 

Hodgson's away record is simply appalling. I really dont understand why John Henry and Tom Werner dont recognise that stark fact seeing as they are big on stats.

 

It doesnt matter how much they talk about it or, even give hodgson the money to bring in new players. His record away from home wont improve.

[andrew78]

In my mind we are fucked for years to come,how long will it take to compete at the top god knows ,unless theres some real cash spent i dont think il see another liverpool leauge title in the next 15 years ,the other teams are pulling away from us all the time

[Preston Red]

Sack Roy. Fetch in Joachim Low.

[theghost]

Give Lucas the armband and 200k a week.

[Antynwa]

We get out of this mess with unity and a short term plan, leading to a medium term plan, leading to a long term plan.

 

No quick fix. No manager change will see us out of the shit.

[llego]

We get out of this mess with unity and a short term plan, leading to a medium term plan, leading to a long term plan.

 

No quick fix. No manager change will see us out of the shit.

 

Short term plan: sack roy

Medium term plan: sign top players

Long term plan: develop youth

 

There ive solved it

[Jose Jones]

Short term plan: sack roy

Medium term plan: sign top players

Long term plan: develop youth

 

There ive solved it

 

Pretty good plan that.

[raininblood]

" I have a cunning plan " ! :whatever:

[RedinSweden]

 

Short term plan: sack roy

Medium term plan: sign top players

Long term plan: develop youth

 

There ive solved it

 

Make this man the manager.

[Major Tom]

Short term plan: sack roy

Medium term plan: sign top players

Long term plan: develop youth

 

There ive solved it

 

In a concise, wee nutshell, llego has it right.