Guardian season preview

[Hand Shandy]

Sorry if this has already been posted up...

 

 

Premier League preview No8: Liverpool

 

Title No19 after a 19-year drought is Liverpool's main goal but can Rafael Benítez invest wisely and quickly enough to deliver?

 

The following blog was published in this morning's Guardian, so we have decided to bring it forward ahead of schedule. The Everton preview blog will be published here on Friday afternoon

 

Nineteen years have passed without league title No19 and still the prediction is that this could be Liverpool's year. But now the expectation is justified at Anfield and so high, so unforgiving, that not even Xabi Alonso's departure diminishes the demand on Rafael Benítez. Regaining the mantle of England's most decorated champions from Manchester United is imperative.

 

First, however, there must be caution amid the exultation. Benítez envisaged a summer of fine-tuning his squad after the first genuine title challenge of his reign but, despite the capture of Glen Johnson and impending arrival of Alberto Aquilani, it stands diminished. Alonso represents a serious loss from the spine of a first-choice XI that ranks alongside that of any Premier League rival and several other, albeit far less influential, players have been sold to raise funds. The loss of Alonso, however, does not have to be catastrophic to Liverpool's title prospects.

 

The club will undoubtedly miss the guile, technical ability and experience of a player who responded to Benítez's attempts to sell him last summer with arguably the finest season of his five-year spell on Merseyside. Of more importance is how Benítez spends the £30m he prised out of Florentino Pérez and Real Madrid for Alonso, a player he signed for £10.7m and valued at £18m 12 months ago on account of two injury-plagued but mediocre seasons; and whether Benítez will be allowed to reinvest Alonso's full transfer fee plus other monies promised this summer.

 

It is strange that the Liverpool squad has not been bolstered when it was lack of strength in depth, plus injury to Fernando Torres, that Benítez cited as the major reasons for falling four points short of United last season. In terms of numbers the arrival of Johnson and Aquilani, for instance, is offset by the departures of Alvaro Arbeloa and Alonso to the Bernabéu.

 

There remains time for strengthening and Liverpool indicated that the sale of Alonso might prompt a flurry of activity by securing a deal for Roma's playmaker Aquilani yesterday but it is unlike Benítez to leave money in his pocket should he have any available, as has been the case this summer. Cover is required at centre-half following Sami Hyypia's free transfer to Bayer Leverkusen while quality support for Torres and Steven Gerrard up front has not arrived seven months after Robbie Keane's return to White Hart Lane.

 

Given Benítez was promised £20m to spend plus whatever he raised in sales at the start of this summer – before the owners, George Gillett and Tom Hicks, secured a refinancing deal that involves repaying £60m of a £290m debt over the next 12 months – the Liverpool manager must have more than £40m at his dis- posal following Alonso's move. Should Aquilani overcome his injury problems and settle instantly – a prerequisite with the title at stake – a forward of the calibre of Valencia's David Silva arrive and defensive cover in the form of Sylvain Distin, for example, be brought in, then Benítez will have achieved his summer goals and Liverpool will embark on the new campaign wiser and stronger. But only Aquilani and a cheap defender would alter that assessment and raise further question marks over the Americans' financial might.

 

It is United, not Liverpool, who have lost more to the continued lure of Real Madrid and superior Spanish tax rates this summer and Sir Alex Ferguson could not ignore the foundation for Anfield's confidence even as he sought to dismiss their title credentials this week. "The thrust of the Liverpool team is really all about Gerrard and Torres," the United manager said. "If they stay fit, it improves Liverpool's chances."

 

Liverpool found a consistency that has long eluded them in the Premier League last season, even with Gerrard and Torres starting only 14 of 38 league matches together. Captain and talismanic striker produced 30 of Liverpool's 77 league goals last term, despite Torres suffering three hamstring strains that ruled him out of 14 league games. When fit, they represent Anfield's greatest hope. Injury to Torres or Gerrard would have a severe impact on the side but that argument applies to Wayne Rooney at Old Trafford.

 

Benítez finally got the measure of his "big four" rivals last season by taking 14 points from a possible 18 against the champions, Chelsea and Arsenal. Liverpool remained unbeaten in the league at Anfield all season, although their well-documented achilles heel – the seven draws at Anfield – continues to pain their manager. It is surely where a forward of Silva's ilk comes into the reckoning.

 

Johnson, desperate to seize his second chance at a top-four club following the disappointment of Stamford Bridge, appears a fine addition to the defence, able to provide adventurous support to Dirk Kuyt on the right and sure to improve defensively under Benítez's tutelage. Ryan Babel, having earned a reprieve from his manager this summer, will have to grasp his opportunity while greater responsibility will now fall on Javier Mascherano in light of Alonso's exit.

 

The Spaniard's sale means there is no prospect of the Argentina captain being granted his coveted move to Barcelona and much rests on his response. The title, however, may rest on Benítez's next moves in the transfer market.

 

Ins: Glen Johnson (Portsmouth, £18m), Alberto Aquilani (Roma, £20m)

 

Outs: Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid, £30m) Alvaro Arbeloa (Real Madrid, £3.5m), Sebastien Leto (Panathinaikos, £1.3m), Paul Anderson (Nottingham Forest, £250,000), Sami Hyypia (Bayer Leverkusen, free), Jermaine Pennant (Espanyol, free), Jack Hobbs (Leicester, free), Astrit Ajdarevic (Leicester, free), Shane O'Connor (Ipswich, free), Ryan Flynn (Falkirk, loan), Dean Bouzanis (Wrexham, loan)

 

Guardian writers' prediction: 1st Odds to win league: 11-4

[Hand Shandy]

Well, aside from the bollock drop of a double-post, it's certainly interesting that they put us to finish top...

Edited August 6, 2009 by Hand Shandy

[Guest LFD]

I certainly agree that United are weaker than we are compared to last season.

 

They have lost two top match winners.

 

We have improved on one position, with Johnson being an upgrade over Arbeloa, yet have suffered the loss of Alonso.

 

I think it is all to play for, but I think Chelsea might be the team to beat this season. Essien and Joe Cole fully fit will be two huge boosts, plus I think Zhirkov was a shrewd buy.

[captainharris]

I know it's difficult to compare the impact on us losing Alonso and the Mancs losing Tevez and Ronaldo, but a quick look at the amount of points the mancs would not of gained if you take out the goals of their players compared to Alonso.

 

If we didn't have Alonso we would have dropped 2 points (the winner against Chelsea). The mancs would have dropped 17 points without the contribution of Tevez and Ronaldo. Again, it's not an exact science, but the amount of fire power they have lost this summer is phenomenal.

[Guest LFD]

the amount of fire power they have lost this summer is phenomenal.

 

Yes, any new signings would do well to have half the impact Ronaldo had at United.

[Guest Dog Chaser]

The mancs will struggle to replace the goals Ronaldo scored, thats what will cost them this season.

[Ted]

They're even more reliant on Rooney now than they were before.

 

He's gonna be chief creative influence and, assuming knobhead doesn't do anything there, probably their main goal threat.

 

Unless they go get someone really good.

[llego]

I dont believe they wont sign anyone, how could that be? 80 million just sitting around?

[Tom R]

It's us or Chelsea. Man U will finish 4th. You heard it hear first. Possibly.

[danielo]

Heart says Liverpool, head says Chelsea. I would be annoyingly surprised if Man Utd won it this year, and pleasantly surprised if Mark Hughes is sacked by Christmas.

[Tom R]

I hope Mark Hughes stays there for a long time. Whilst they have him they're no threat whatsoever. With a decent manager we'd have some real competition.

[Guest LFD]

It's us or Chelsea. Man U will finish 4th. You heard it hear first. Possibly.

 

I think they might as well.

[Steve Holt]

I wish everyone would stop prophesying the mancs' downfall this year. If we or Chelsea win the league it'll be because we beat them to it, not because they weren't in the race. There's optimism, then there's asking to have your own words shoved violently back down your throat. Haven't we learned yet that we write them off at our peril?

[Antynwa]

You don't write off Manchester United.

 

Fucking hell, have we not learnt?

[Guest LFD]

I wish everyone would stop prophesying the mancs' downfall this year. If we or Chelsea win the league it'll be because we beat them to it, not because they weren't in the race. There's optimism, then there's asking to have your own words shoved violently back down your throat. Haven't we learned yet that we write them off at our peril?

 

I will write off whoever I think.

 

United for me have the weakest midfield in the top four. They didn't control games last season and I don't see them doing it this season. They have a very impressive defense, but they can't rely on the individual brilliance of Ronaldo next season and I think they are going to be significantly weaker.

 

I have a sneaky feeling Arsenal will do well, they certainly have the goal threat with Eduardo, Van Persie, Arshavin, Walcott, Rosicky, Nasri etc getting fed by Fabregas. Can see them having a better season.

 

But personally I think Chelsea are the team to beat.

[llego]

Given Benítez was promised £20m to spend plus whatever he raised in sales at the start of this summer – before the owners, George Gillett and Tom Hicks, secured a refinancing deal that involves repaying £60m of a £290m debt over the next 12 months – the Liverpool manager must have more than £40m at his dis- posal following Alonso's move. Should Aquilani overcome his injury problems and settle instantly – a prerequisite with the title at stake – a forward of the calibre of Valencia's David Silva arrive and defensive cover in the form of Sylvain Distin, for example, be brought in, then Benítez will have achieved his summer goals and Liverpool will embark on the new campaign wiser and stronger. But only Aquilani and a cheap defender would alter that assessment and raise further question marks over the Americans' financial might.

 

I don't understand this math.

 

Ins: Glen Johnson (Portsmouth, £18m), Alberto Aquilani (Roma, £20m)

 

Outs: Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid, £30m) Alvaro Arbeloa (Real Madrid, £3.5m), Sebastien Leto (Panathinaikos, £1.3m), Paul Anderson (Nottingham Forest, £250,000)

 

So that's 35m (player sales) + 20m (original budget)= 55m pounds available.

 

And 38m spent (Johnson + Aquilani).

 

The remaining 17m pounds are supposed to be enough to buy Silva and a defender? :|

[Faustus]

I hate it when people tip us to finish first.

[The Special One]

I hate it when people tip us to finish first.

 

I know. How very dare they accuse us of being that good?

[Lightforce]

You don't write off Manchester United.

 

Fucking hell, have we not learnt?

 

No, I don't think we have. You see various people on this forum writing them off almost every day. It's as if they're not aware that in the last 17 years they've won 11 league titles while we have won a grand total of 0.

 

They were only 3 wins away from winning EVERYTHING last season, yet while they were going on that record breaking clean sheet run it was all "they're not playing well blah blah fucking blah blah".

 

We NEVER fucking learn.

[Stu Monty]

No, I don't think we have. You see various people on this forum writing them off almost every day. It's as if they're not aware that in the last 17 years they've won 11 league titles while we have won a grand total of 0.

 

They were only 3 wins away from winning EVERYTHING last season, yet while they were going on that record breaking clean sheet run it was all "they're not playing well blah blah fucking blah blah".

 

We NEVER fucking learn.

 

They were also four goals away from winning nothing but I agree with not writing them off.

[ratcatcher]

Heart wants to say us but head says still insufficient class in depth. We all know what were capable of with a fully fit team but, its what you do when you havent got your first 11 out every game. And unless benitez signs one or two more headline players my head says we'll come up short.

[Guest LFD]

There is a difference between predicting them to come fourth and writing them off.

[Preston Red]

No, I don't think we have. You see various people on this forum writing them off almost every day. It's as if they're not aware that in the last 17 years they've won 11 league titles while we have won a grand total of 0.

 

They were only 3 wins away from winning EVERYTHING last season, yet while they were going on that record breaking clean sheet run it was all "they're not playing well blah blah fucking blah blah".

 

We NEVER fucking learn.

 

They were also four goals away from winning nothing but I agree with not writing them off.

 

3 wins away from winning everything

 

4 goals away from winning nothing

 

What about the endless amounts of minutes in injury time which enable them to win most games. Fair do, they do keep going to the end as we are endlessly reminded where as we were lucky to win our games in the dying minutes.

 

A lot of the injury time they were given during the course of the season was VERY suspect.

 

I'll highlight the Aston Villa game when rentboy mk2 scored right at the end. He scored on 93 minutes. The injury time was 5 minutes. A staggering 5 minutes!!! The game finished on 96 minutes. A lot of journos and pundits reckoned there could not have been more than 2 minutes of injury time as there was no major injury and the substitutions could not have amounted to more than 15 seconds per sub.

 

Of course putting the ball in the net is the most important aspect of the game but why do they always seem to get the rub of the green?

 

Why is it easier for them to get work permits?

 

Why do they get dodgy penalty decisions?

 

Maybe I'm just a moaning fucker who is desperate for number 19 to come, but surely there has to be something a little bit untoward with it all.

[INTORRESTING]

finish above the scum and we win the title, it will go to the wire i am sure. They are the luckiest team on earth, owen will score a hatful, berbatov will be sublime and rooney will be one of the best in the country - the sooner we admit it the better, we need to be almost perfect, they know how to win it we dont.

[bobhorse]

Chelsea will lose many of its stars to the African Nations i would have them 3rd at best its between Liverpool and United IMO Arsenal will be a better team this season they cant have as many injuries as they had to key players this season City i expect to struggle to find a settled team and can see Hughes getting the elbow before starting to win games

 

Liverpool

United

Chelsea

Arsenal

Everton

Spurs

City

Villa

 

would be my idea of how it will pan out