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Stu Monty

The Latin America thread

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4 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

Have been without internet for the past few days but just wanted to tell you all that my mother was eventually evacuated by the organisation she works for. She is lucky enough to have dual citizenship so she was able to get out, she's really worried for the coworkers she left behind.

 

Poor, poor Bolivia. The country just can't catch a break. Right as you celebrate getting rid of a corrupt, incompetent Chavez wannabe, we replace him with a violent, crazed Pinochet wannabe.

 

I mean, what is going on? Why can we not just have a normal, decent person in power?

 

Desperately praying for elections to be scheduled in the very near future and for the voters to heartily reject both of these nutjobs and to bring someone in who will put the needs of the people first. I'm not holding my breath.

 

Do you know more, what is the rest of the opposition like, what are they likely to do?

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16 hours ago, SasaS said:

 

Do you know more, what is the rest of the opposition like, what are they likely to do?

I honestly don't know.

 

It's quite difficult to follow Bolivian politics at a distance. The only people covering it for the major papers and websites are usually located in Buenos Aires or Rio de Janeiro or something. I asked my mum and she's not really helpful - my dad used to fill me in but since he died I feel like I don't really know.

 

She did say that the atmosphere at the moment is extremely toxic. Apparently both sides on facebook are polarised in a way she's not seen before. Even close friends cursing at each other for being on the other side, etc.

 

I don't expect a good outcome. Either Evo will swing back into power and declare himself to be president for life on the back of an electoral victory, or Anez and her gang seem like they're happy to imprison or run out of the country anyone who opposes them. Sigh.

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On 20/11/2019 at 02:20, Ne Moe Imya said:

I don't expect a good outcome. Either Evo will swing back into power and declare himself to be president for life on the back of an electoral victory, or Anez and her gang seem like they're happy to imprison or run out of the country anyone who opposes them. Sigh.

The latter would seem the more likely outcome... imprison or kill or run out of the country, that is. 

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Interestingly, they have a similar situation in Uruguay, the left is most likely going to lose and go into opposition seemingly without all the drama seen in Bolivia and previously Venezuela.  

 

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15 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Interestingly, they have a similar situation in Uruguay, the left is most likely going to lose and go into opposition seemingly without all the drama seen in Bolivia and previously Venezuela.  

 

Not really similar then is it, mate? 

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It's similar in that the side in power didn't win in the first round and will likely lose in the run-off, which is what they said could happen to Morales if he didn't win the 10 percent allowing him to avoid the run-off. As I said previously, it seems the governments in Venezuela and Bolivia think losing elections and going into opposition is something which must be avoided at all costs, which is not good for their democratic credentials.  

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3 minutes ago, SasaS said:

It's similar in that the side in power didn't win in the first round and will likely lose in the run-off, which is what they said could happen to Morales if he didn't win the 10 percent allowing him to avoid the run-off. As I said previously, it seems the governments in Venezuela and Bolivia think losing elections and going into opposition is something which must be avoided at all costs, which is not good for their democratic credentials.  

So it isn’t similar, then. Glad we cleared that up

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1 minute ago, moof said:

So it isn’t similar, then. Glad we cleared that up

Yes, that is indeed the most important element of the point I was trying to make. 

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17 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Well they are all countries.. 

ha. Exactly 

 

I mean, you can say it’s similar if you have an extremely warped view of what’s happening in Bolivia - but in reality it isn’t, at all

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It presents a theoretical problem if you believe revolutions can be brought about by democratic means. Venezuela and Bolivia are not Cuba, which is obviously not  a democracy, you cannot form a political party and change the government at an election, like you can in Venezuela and Bolivia. However, it seems that societal change in these two countries falls somewhere in between, that is, they remained democracies, but only as long as the ruling party, the main agent of change, keeps winning. As soon as the support starts falling to the very marginal level, the government turns into a regime, which will try to prevent its removal, so becoming the opposition is seen as the ultimate, finite defeat. That may be conditioned by the nature of the opposition to the government, which is, in both countries also not particularly democratic and often acts as a reactionary force, a counter-revolution. But this may in turn be condition by the nature of the government, which resists change by democratic means.
 

Other South American countries, if the change of government is done more or less peacefully, for example now in Uruguay, would indicate that you in fact must stay within the realm of social democracy to remain democratic, that the possibility of democracy is limited once you step outside the rules outlined by broad principles of liberal democracy, of which social democracy is only a variation. True change of society may be possible only through non-democratic means, because it needs to eliminate the possibility of reversing the change. Fundamental change seems to resist being tested every four years at free elections. There may be no democratic socialism, only dictatorship of the proletariat.  

Thank you. I will now be taking questions from the audience.

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