Cheltenhm Festival Day 3 Thursday

[bobhorse]

Day 3

 

JEWSON NOVICES HANDICAP CHASE

2M 5F, CLASS A, 5y-o+

 

RECENT TRENDS

Just 4 runnings of this race.

Killer stat: ALL 4 winners of this race were 7yo's

• All 4 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

• All 4 winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last 3 runs (when completing the course)

• All 4 winners carried less than 10-12

• All 4 winners had run at least 3 times that season

• All 4 winners ran in a February Novice / Beginners Chase last time out (not handicap)

Interesting Facts: Paul Nicholls has sent out 9 runners in the race with all un-placed.

 

Selection Isn't That Lucky Alt Kia Kaha EWay Astradore

 

PERTEMPS FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE

3MILES, LISTED, 5y-o+

 

RECENT TRENDS

Killer stat: Only one 5yo winner in 34 runnings

• 12 of last 16 winners had already won over 3miles

• 6yo & 9yo have the best recent record with 4 wins each in the last 10 runnings

• Only 1 winning fav in last 10 years

• All of last 10 winners had prep run between 31&66 days prior to race

• 8 of the last 9 winners had run 3 or more times that season

• 8 of rhe last 9 winners carried 11-02 or less

Interesting Fact: The last 5 winners had all won a race with a field of 16 runners+

 

Selection Syncronised AlT Ballydub EW Heathcliff

 

RYANAIR CHASE

2M 5F, GRADE 1, 5y-o+

 

RECENT TRENDS

Another new race that has only 4 years of data

Killer stat: All winners were from the first 3 in the betting and only 1 horse with double figure

odds has made the frame out of the 12 possible places (Lacdoudal 2nd at 20/1)

• All 4 winners had won at Cheltenham

• All 4 winners had won a Class 1 race

• Paul Nicholls has trained 2 of the 4 winners

• 3 of the 4 winners were aged 9 years+

• 50% of all French Bred runners have been placed

Interesting Fact: Both Fontmort and Our Vic finished 2nd in the race before winning the following

year.

 

Selection Imperial Commander Alt Voy Por Ustedes EW Tidal Bay

 

WORLD HURDLE

3MILES, GRADE 1, 4y-o +

 

RACE HISTORY

Formerly the Stayers Hurdle and run in it's current format since 1972 it adopted the peculiar new

name of the World Hurdle when Ladbrokes took over the sponsorship. Still run over the same

distance it has been the main event in deciding the stayers division for some time. Recent winners

include the French star stayer Baracouda and the horse who ended his attempts for 3 wins in the

race, Inglis Drever. The latter went on to record an historic victory in last years race when he

became the first horse to achieve that feat of 3 wins in the Stayers Hurdle. Unfortunately injury has

forced his retirement and scuppered any dreams of the unprecedented 4 Stayers Championships.

 

RECENT TRENDS

Killer stat: The last 21 winners finished in first 4 last time out

• No 5yo has ever won the World Hurdle / Stayers Hurdle

• Only 1 aged over 9 has won (1986 Crimson Ember)

• 9 of last 10 winners aged 6-8

• No Irish winner since 1995 (Dorans Pride)

• No winner this decade had more than 3 runs that season

• 8 of the last 10 winners had won a Graded hurdle

• 8 of the last 10 winners had won or were placed at a previous Festival

 

Interesting Fact: The last 8 winners finished either 1st or 2nd in all there runs that season

 

HOW THE LEADING FANCIES FIT THE TOP TRENDS

Finished top

4 last time

Aged 6-8 Run 3 or less

times

Won a Graded

Hurdle

Win or place

at a festival

Finished 1 or

2 all runs

Kasbah Bliss Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Punchestowns Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes

Big Bucks Yes Yes Yes Yes No No

Fair Along Yes Yes No Yes Yes No

Blazing Bailey No Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Catch Me Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes

Mobaasher Yes Yes Yes No Yes No

Powerstation Yes No No Yes Yes No

Duc de Regniere Yes Yes No Yes No No

Tazbar Yes Yes Yes Yes No No

Hardy Eustace No No No Yes Yes No

Lough Derg Yes No No Yes No No

 

1999 – 2008 PAST WINNERS

Year Horse Age Trainer Odds Weight

2008 INGLIS DREVER 9 H. JOHNSON 11/8F 11-10

2007 INGLIS DREVER 8 H. JOHNSON 5/1 11-10

2006 MY WAY DE SOLZEN 6 A.KING 8/1 11-10

2005 INGLIS DREVER 6 H. JOHNSON 5/1 11-10

2004 IRIS'S GIFT 7 JJ O'NEIL 9/2 11-10

2003 BARACOUDA 8 F. DOUMEN 9/4J 11-10

2002 BARACOUDA 7 F. DOUMEN 13/8F 11-10

2000 BACCHANAL 6 N. HENDERSON 11/2 11-10

1999 ANZUM 8 D. NICHOLSON 40/1 11-10

 

HOW THE FAVOURITES FARED

Favourites finishing position: 2611223F1To £1 Level Stake: -£2.27

Position of winner in market: 9-3-1-1-2-3-4-3-1

 

TRAINER RECORDS SINCE 1998

(RUNNERS – WINS – PLACED)

A. KING 8 1 2

W. MULLINS 5 0 1

H. DALY 3 0 3

H. JOHNSON 4 3 0

N. HENDERSON 5 1 0

F. DOUMEN 9 2 3

N. TWISTON-DAVIES 7 0 1

 

AGE OF WINNER. WINS - NUMBER OF RUNNERS

5yo 0-9 / 6yo 3-28 / 7yo 3-33 / 8yo 3-27 / 9yo 1-16 / 10yo 0-12 / 11yo 0-5 / 13yo 0-1

 

PACE IN THE RACE – HOW THE FIRST THREE FINISHERS RACED

 

LED 2 RACED PROMINENT 11

MID-DIVISION 2 HELP UP IN REAR 12

AVERAGE JOE – THE AVERAGE PROFILE OF THE WINNER

AGE WEIGHT POSITION

LAST TIME

RUNS THAT

SEASON

DAYS SINCE

LAST RUN

NUMBER OF RUNS

OVER HURDLES

ODDS

7 11s 10lb 2 3 34 10 9 to 2

COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

(RUNNERS WINNERS PLACED % WIN & PLACE)

to No. of Runners / to No. of Places (27)

GB Bred 34 5 4 26.5% 33.3%

Irish Bred 45 1 7 17.8% 29.6%

French Bred 31 3 7 35.5% 37%%

German Bred 2 0 0 0% 0%

Others 10 0 0 0% 0%

 

KEY TRIALS

Blue Square Hurdle. Haydock. February 14th

This saw the long awaited seasonal reappearance of last years World Hurdle runner up Kasbah Bliss

who hadn't run since a fair 4th in a Group 1 flat race last backend. And what a comeback run it was

as the French horse jumped superbly, moved effortlessly alongside the runner up approaching the

last and sprinted 8 lengths clear on the run in. Given the soft ground this was a performance out of

the top drawer and sets the standard for all the other World Hurdle hopefuls.

Cleeve Hurdle. Cheltenham. January 24th

Run over the course and distance of the World Hurdle but on ground described as heavy this was

still a good dress rehersal for the main event in March. The race went to the Paul Nicholls trained

Big Bucks who, in receipt of a much needed 8lb, got the better of the odds on Nicky Henderson

trained Punchestowns by 4 lengths. Connections of both horses will be very pleased with the result

but with conditions likely to be less testing in March it will be Mr Henderson who has more reasons

to be smiling. Fair Along ran another good race in third on his favourite track and will no doubt

give another game performance without threatening the market leaders. A comment that also applies

to the robust Lough Derg who ran well in fourth without posing a danger. He would be an

interesting runner in something like the Coral Cup.

Long Walk Hurdle. Ascot. December 20th

The race that put Punchestowns to the forefront of the home based stayers as he recorded an easy

success from his stablemate Duc de Regniere. With a whole host of decent stayers well behind him

this was a very good performance and a big step up from the handicap he had won at the track

previously. Mobaasher stayed on quite well to take third and should be suited by Cheltenham's stiff

track. Blazing Bailey ran another poor race, after flattering to deceive three flights out, to finish a

well beaten fourth but it's worth remembering that this horse seems to run his best races in the

Spring.

With the majority of winners having run previously at the Cheltenham Festival it may be worth

looking at the 2008 running of the World Hurdle.

2008 World Hurdle. Cheltenham. March 13th 2008

Kasbah Bliss was the only runner to give Inglis Drever any sort of race last year and he lost nothing

in defeat in going down by a length to one of the best stayers of recent years. With that rival now

enjoying a well earned retirement the path is clear for the relatively young French horse to assume

his Staying Crown. After a highly promising reappearance that crown is his for the taking. Blazing

Bailey assumed his normal finishing position of fourth last year and seems unlikely to improve on

that run this time around while Hardy Eustace and Lough Derg were well out the back and have it

all to do again.

 

LAST YEARS WINNER HAD HIS LAST RUN PRIOR TO CHELTENHAM IN THE....

Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham. See above...

 

Selection Big Bucks Alt Kasbar Bliss EW Tazbar

 

 

 

 

RACING POST FESTIVAL PLATE HANDICAP CHASE

2M 5F. GRADE 3. 5y-o+

RACE HISTORY

Formerly the Mildmay of Flete Handicap Chase it took it's new name in 2006 when The Racing

Post took over the sponsorship. When it was run under the old title it was a race Martin Pipe

regularly targeted and he won it 4 times in the 5 races between 1997-2002.. He was also responsible

for the last winning favourite in 1999 (Majadou) since when the race has been won by less fancied

runners none more so than last years shock 66/1 winner Mister McGoldrick . This horse was also

only the second horse to win this race at the ripe old age of 11.

RECENT TRENDS

Killer stat: French bred horses have won 5 of the last 9 runnings and were runner up in the other 4.

• All of the last 11 winners had won a Class 3 or better race.

• 10 of the last 11 had won at a trip between 2m3f and 2m5f

• 15 of the last 17 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival

• 14 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 4 last time out

• There's only been 1 winning favourite in the last 27 years

• The last 11 winners all had there last run in a Chase event within the last 2 months

• 10 of the last 11 winners carried 11-03 or less

Interesting Fact: The shortest priced winner since 2000 was 12/1

Edited March 12, 2009 by bobhorse

[Guest The Big Green Bastard]

Local weather is same as yesterday, bit cloudy and grey all day by the looks of it. At least the none of the meetings have been called off unlike last years debacle. The former landlord of my local went bankrupt due to Gold cup not running last year, its a measure of how much local business around here relies on race week and the tourists, never seen so many dodgy taxis in my life!

If anyone is going to the races from the station, dont get a taxi you could end up paying £20+ for a 3 mile journey. Get the 'D' bus from the station straight to the course.

 

Good luck all.

[stringvest]

Cheers Guys. Bob! Your tips, man!

[banger]

Thanks once again bob. any selections in the last ?

[bigal]

Mine for today

 

Northern Alliance / Exmoor Ranger

Synchronised / Buena Vista

Voy Por f/cast with Imperial Commander

Kasbah Bliss / Tazbar (EW)

5th is impossible but Notable d'Estruval/Finger on the Pulse/ Or Bleu and Buck The Legend all have EW shots

Poker de Sivola / Le Duc

 

That 5th really is a pinstickers race.

[Xherdan]

That 5th really is a pinstickers race.

 

My speciality.

[Soleilrouge]

Big talk from the connections about Poker Di Sivola

 

Also I fancy Tidal Bay to run a big one and hes a good price

 

For each way backers take a look at Kia Kaha in the first

[sir roger]

Thanks once again bob. any selections in the last ?

 

Judging by the time he posted the thread-starter , he'll still be in bed if he has any sense.

[Carradona]

Good stuff bob.

[loadsoftrophies]

Cheers Bob, going against the big two today i see.

[riafbadmig]

thanks bob for the info

 

Betfair users - can you do forecasts etc on betfair im relatively new to bet fair and see how you can go about it

[The Tott]

Best of luck guys

 

Crescent Island in the 1,30 is a tip i got for ew

[rondeco]

Big talk from the connections about Poker Di Sivola

 

Also I fancy Tidal Bay to run a big one and hes a good price

 

For each way backers take a look at Kia Kaha in the first

 

Poker di savola is in to 9/4 now. PLenty of money gone on him.

 

p'tit fute is worth an each way look.

[Xherdan]

Best of luck to everyone today.

[loadsoftrophies]

Poker di savola is in to 9/4 now. PLenty of money gone on him.

 

p'tit fute is worth an each way look.

 

9/2 athe the moment.

[Carradona]

9/2 athe the moment.

 

I got him at 4/1.

[rondeco]

I meant 9/2 sorry lads

[bigal]

thanks bob for the info

 

Betfair users - can you do forecasts etc on betfair im relatively new to bet fair and see how you can go about it

 

They have their own forecasts. Go to Horse Racing - Today's Card on the left hand column and you'll see the option for each race.

Or you can do a Tote exacta by clicking on the Tote button above the card

[Xherdan]

As said in yesterdays thread, I wouldnt be a big fan of horse racing, but Cheltenham week is fucking ace.

[Carradona]

Isn't That Lucky gets me some money on the first race. Lovely. Came from nowhere too.

[bigal]

Small win due to place for Northern Alliance. Got tipped that winner and ignored it

[Ezekiel 25:17]

Cain you little rat I backed that to win. Nevermind I am the worlds unluckiest gambler so it couldnt win , oh and take heed people I have backed bobs selections in the next aswell. So the sensible thing to do would be bet against them !

[Woo]

Ballydub and Petit Flute for me in the next.

[Carradona]

I back most of my bets each way, Zeek!

[bigal]

I've just reviewed and of the 4 handicaps (not including the Xcountry) run so far every winner had won its previous race. Not saying that's a guarantee but it's worth noting