Cheltenham Wednesday's Guide

[bobhorse]

DAY 2 Wednesday 11th MARCH

 

1.30 139th YEAR OF THE NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP (Amateur Riders) NOVICES’ CHASE

5yo + 4 miles

 

TRENDS:

• 13 of the last 15 winners were FIRST or SECOND on either of their LAST 2 STARTS.

• 15 of the last 18 winners had finished in the first 4 on their LATEST START.

• 12 of the last 14 winners had run at least 4 times over fences.

• ALL of the last 15 winners were AGED SEVEN +

• 15 of the last 18 winners were either SEVEN or EIGHT YEAR OLDS.

• 10 of the last 18 winners have started at 10/1 or LESS.

• Only 5 winners in the last 16 years had started longer than 14/1.

• 9 of the last 15 winners had WON PREVIOUSLY over at least 3 miles.

• JONJO O’NEILL has won the race 4 times in the last 7 years.

• There have only been 2 IRISH TRAINED winners in the last 11 years

 

Selection Cant Buy Time Alt Coe e/way Kornati Kid ( should Wichita Lineman run in this after winning today take the hint conections alos have the Selection )

 

2.05 BALLYMORE PROPERTIES NOVICES’ HURDLE

(Grade 1)

4yo + 2 miles 5 furlongs

 

TRENDS:

• FAVOURITES have won 4 of the last 11 renewals.

• NO FAVOURITE has won since 2000.

• 14 of the last 19 winners had won LAST TIME OUT.

• 13 of the last 14 winners had FINISHED 1st or 2nd LAST TIME OUT (MASSINI’S MAGUIRE being the exception).

• 11 of the last 12 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on ALL COMPLETED STARTS OVER HURDLES (MASSINI’S MAGUIRE being the exception).

• 12 of the last 14 winners had won at least 50% of their hurdle runs.

• 15 of the last 19 winners had run at least 4 times.

• 15 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m 4f earlier in the season.

• 11 of the last 14 winners started their career in either IRISH POINTS or BUMPERS.

• 13 of the last 19 winners had WON a GRADED NOVICE EVENT earlier in the season.

• Only 7 winners, in the last 19 years, have returned SP’s BIGGER than 8/1.

• The last 18 winners: 4yo = 1: 5yo = 5: 6yo = 11: 7yo = 1

• 6 of the last 15 winners had won a NOVICE HURDLE at LEOPARDSTOWN

 

Selections Mikale D Haguenet Alt Diamond Harry E/Way Realt Dubh

 

2.40 RSA CHASE (Grade 1)

5yo + 3 miles 110 yards

 

TRENDS:

• 11 of the last 18 winners had already won over at least 3 miles.

• 14 of the last 15 winners have been AGED 6 – 8 (Star de Mohaison being the exception).

• 14 of the last 17 winners have been AGED 7 or above.

• Only 6 of the last 18 winners had previously won a Graded chase.

• Only 3 of the last 17 winners had run MORE than 5 times over fences.

• ALL of the last 17 winners had finished in the FIRST THREE LAST TIME OUT.

• 11 of the last 12 winners have finished 1st or 2nd LAST TIME OUT.

• There have only been 3 IRISH TRAINED winners since 1980.

• 5 FAVOURITES have won in the last 18 years.

• PAUL NICHOLLS has won the race TWICE in the last 3 years

 

Selection Caruthers Alt What a Friend e/way Massini Maguire

 

3.20 SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER

CHAMPION CHASE (Grade 1)

5yo + 2 miles

 

TRENDS:

• 12 of the last 18 winners were previous COURSE & DISTANCE winners.

• 12 of the last 18 winners had WON or been PLACED at the FESTIVAL previously.

• 12 of the last 17 winners were running in the race for the FIRST TIME.

• 15 of the last 18 winners had either been 1st or 2nd on their LATEST START.

• 12 of the last 16 winners had raced over fences at least 9 times.

• FAVOURITES have won the race 3 times in the last 7 years.

• 12 of the last 15 winners had been in the FIRST THREE IN THE BETTING.

• 8 of the last 12 winners were GRADE 1 winners previously.

• In the last 18 years, 5 previous ARKLE TROPHY winners 12 months earlier followed up here, 5 others were placed in the Queen Mother.

• The last 18 years: 5yo = 1: 6yo = 1: 7yo = 3: 8yo = 7: 9yo = 3: 10yo = 2: 11yo = 1

• Record of Reigning Champion: 312445U3542 : Record of previous year’s Arkle winner: 123121121

 

Selection Master Minded Alt Petit Robbin e/way Twist Magic

 

4.00 CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3)

5yo + 2 miles 5 furlongs

 

TRENDS:

There have been 15 runnings of the race.

• Only 3 of the 15 winners had RUN MORE than 4 times that season.

• 13 of the 15 winners carried NO MORE than 11st 3lb.

• 7 of the last 15 winners carried 10st 3lb or LESS.

• ALL of the last 13 winners have been OFFICIALLY RATED between 126 & 147.

• Only 1 winner has been OFFICIALLY RATED higher than 144 (Monkerhostin in 2004).

• 11 of the 15 winners had finished in the first 3 LAST TIME OUT, with 9 winning on their LATEST START.

• ALL of the 15 winners had finished no worse than sixth LAST TIME OUT.

• 11 of the 15 winners had run at least 9 times over hurdles.

• 10 of the last 12 winners had run NO MORE than 16 times over hurdles.

• 9 of the last 12 winners had been AGED 6 – 8.

• There have been 5 IRISH TRAINED winners.

• ONLY 1 FAVOURITE has won in the last 14 renewals.

• 13 of the 15 winners had won over 2m 2f – 2m 6f.

 

Selection Mirage Dore Alt Ambobo e/way Dancing Tornado

 

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle

 

2 miles 0.5 furlongs Listed Race 4 year olds

 

This is a race for those who are thought not to be good enough to

 

win the Triumph Hurdle. Once again it is an ultra competitive

 

handicap. We need to look for runners that have shown that they

 

have the ability to win a race but have not been subjected to a

 

hard race recently or performed below expectations. The profile

 

we are looking for is:

 

 A horse with an Official Handicap Rating from 120 to 150.

 

 Is carrying a weight from 10 stone 7 pounds to 11 stone 7

 

pounds.

 

 Last ran between 29 and 60 days ago.

 

 Finished in the first 4 in at least 2 of its last 3 races.

 

 Has achieved a form rating in excess of today’s Official

 

Handicap Rating.

 

We will also be looking to avoid horses that meet the following

 

profiles:

 

 Avoid if beaten favourite last time out.

 

 Avoid if finished 2nd or 3rd last time out.

 

 

Sel Higgy's Boy Alt Amore Mio e/way Resounding Glory

 

5.15 WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT (Grade 1)

4 – 6yo 2 miles 110 yards

 

TRENDS:

There have only been 16 runnings of the race

• IRISH TRAINED horses have won the race 13 times.

• WILLIE MULLINS has won the race 6 times.

• 15 of the 16 winners have been IRISH BRED (SUFFIX IRE next to a horse’s name).

• 15 of the 16 winners had won a bumper with at least 15 runners.

• 14 of the winners had WON LAST TIME OUT, with 10 of them being UNBEATEN.

• Only 3 FAVOURITES have won.

• Only 7 FAVOURITES have finished OUT of the first two.

• 6 of the winners had only raced ONCE.

• 7 of the last 11 winners were off the track for at least 32 days.

• The 16 winners: 4yo = 1: 5yo = 11: 6yo = 4

 

Selection Shinrock Paddy Alt Rite of Passage e/way Meath All Star

 

Well Good Luck to anyone who is having a go today

[The Tott]

Thanks a million bob ur a legend

[Guest The Big Green Bastard]

The weather looks ok for today, overnight rain has nearly dried up, should be grey cloud for the rest of the day with very little chance of rain, loads of punters already queing for race brekkie at my local.

[WaltonRed]

I'm going to have a dabble today.

 

I'm clueless so is there a bet you can do for all the races in one go?

 

One of those one's were the results all follow on, on the bet.

[Koptimus Prime]

Have a go at the placepot on the tote, might have a go myself

[WaltonRed]

So pick a horse out of each of those six races and keep them crossed?

[Koptimus Prime]

Yep, as long as they get placed the bet is still alive....sound easy but im usually ripping the fucking ticket after the 2nd race

[Soleilrouge]

Cooldine is the nap today

[keysaint]

Cooldine is the nap today

 

liking cooldine myself today.

 

Managed to get wichita,quevega and garde yesterday (still annoyed at missing out on forpady, decided to put all eggs in one basket with tatenen instead). Today looks more tricky. Don't want to wedge too much on master minded in case it all goes tits up somehow. I'm not exactly playing with thousands so i won't get a decent return whatever i do. May be worth an ew nibble on something instead.

[Woo]

Cheers Bob, good luck to all.

[Xherdan]

Walton you could try some form of Lucky 15 on the races. .5 stake costs about 15 for the bet and you have all singles, doubles & trebles etc. So it will pay if even one horse wins. The more placed the better your return.

 

I have a lucky 31 today with the following:

 

Tricky Trickster in the 1:30

Karabak in the 2:05

Coldine in the 2:40

Master Minded in the 3:20

Pause & Clause in the 4:00

 

If all win I take 6,846 off .50, but I have all the other mupltiples too.

[bigal]

Tough tough card today.

 

1.Can't Buy Time will go close but Im going for longer prices on Niche Market and Parson's Pistol

2.Mikael D'Haguenet [NAP] (Karabak)

3.Gone To Lunch (Killyglen)

4.Master Minded (Petit Robin)

5.The Polomoche (Ambobo/Serabad)

6.Miss Sarenne (Balzaccio)

7.Rite of Passage (Dunguib)

 

Good luck to all players, we'll need it today

[loadsoftrophies]

Got told Mad Max could be one to watch today in the 2.05.

[paddyberger15]

Got told Mad Max could be one to watch today in the 2.05.

 

Bart will have had a cracking couple of days if he steers that one home, but I'd reckon he is up there with the favourite.

[Xherdan]

Does anyone have a link to watch the races?

[odris]

Fucks sake i give up betting.

[Woo]

Not the best start.

[bigal]

Twiston Davies has been really struggling. A good omen for Imperial Commander tomorrow?

[sir roger]

Does anyone have a link to watch the races?

 

Watching it on Channel 4 , No19.

 

I take it you know Tricky Trickster won,

[Xherdan]

I do, constantly refreshing the paddypower site until the results come in.

 

Nice start on that lucky 31, have 7.50 carrying on to the next race.

[sir roger]

I do, constantly refreshing the paddypower site until the results come in.

 

Nice start on that lucky 31, have 7.50 carrying on to the next race.

 

Well done

 

BBC Sport has a good text thing which shows the winners pretty quickly & some witty comments in between races.

[Xherdan]

Well done

 

BBC Sport has a good text thing which shows the winners pretty quickly & some witty comments in between races.

 

 

 

Will check it out, thanks mate.

[bigal]

Good start that mate. Where did you pull that one from?

[Woo]

BBC SPORT | Other sport... | Horse Racing | Live text - Cheltenham Festival

 

You can also listen to it on Radio 5 Live, the link is in there.

[Woo]

Aswell as my normal bets, just thrown an e/w treble on Karabak, Colldine and Master Minded with the returns from Can't Buy Time getting a place.