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Bjornebye

China v Taiwan

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23 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

 

Doesnt Xi Jinping travel everywhere on 'military planes' when he's on official visits?

 

 

He was in Hong Kong last week for the first time in a few years. Train then a ferry across if I had to guess..

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16 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

I don't suppose it really matters that much. I think her just going there in the first place is slightly more of an issue than how bizarre it might be that I mentioned the type of plane she's in. There's enough shit going on in the world without this stupid corrupt ghoul adding to it. 2nd in line to be president too, complete fucking madness.

But you made the mode of transport the issue saying she was travelling via a 'military plane' and could have used anything but. Now you say the mode of transport doesnt matter and the issue is her in the region.

 

This last bit (her being in the region), I agree with you.

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1 hour ago, dockers_strike said:

But you made the mode of transport the issue saying she was travelling via a 'military plane' and could have used anything but. Now you say the mode of transport doesnt matter and the issue is her in the region.

 

No I didn't. The issue was her going to Taiwan in the first place, I just thought that a military plane added to making the stupid fucking situation even worse. I don't really care what the norm is for a clown like herself to be using as a plane at the end of the day, the fact that she's chosen to go there to stir up a load of shit is the main problem.

 

The State Dept says this on their site too :

 

Quote

Though the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, we have a robust unofficial relationship.

 

https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/

 

But we have the US speaker of the house with this delegation going to Taiwan :

 

Quote

Pelosi's delegation includes U.S. Reps. Gregory Meeks, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee; Mark Takano, chairman of the House Committee on Veterans' Affairs; Suzan DelBene, vice chair of the House Ways and Means Committee; Raja Krishnamoorthi, a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and chair of the Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform; and Andy Kim, a member of the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees.

 

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/01/1114818421/pelosi-begins-asia-tour-in-singapore-with-no-official-word-if-shell-visit-taiwan?t=1659447471891

 

"Unofficial." It's a bunch of US politicians, Democrats, going to Taiwan knowing that it's going cause problems, potentially serious ones.

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8 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Doing nothing?

 

I have no idea what the solution is like I said, Nancy Pelosi probably isn't the answer though.

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The situation is similar to that faced by Great Britain and France in 1938 when Germany announced they intended to occupy the Sudetenland, which was then part of Czechoslovakia.  The German rationale was that the Sudetenland was traditionally part of Germany, inhabited primarily by German-speaking people. Britain and France acceded to Hitler's demand, and we all know what happened next.

 

China has a historical claim on physical territory of Taiwan, and the majority of the Taiwanese population are descended from the Nationalist Chinese who occupied Taiwan in 1949, so they certainly have a point. To add a further complication, almost half of the population of Taiwan are in favour of re-unification with the Mainland. 

 

China has made its intentions clear.  The issue now is the impact of re-unification on the strategic interests of the USA and its allies, and how far both sides are prepared to go in pursuit of their interests. 

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11 minutes ago, Waitak said:

The situation is similar to that faced by Great Britain and France in 1938 when Germany announced they intended to occupy the Sudetenland, which was then part of Czechoslovakia.  The German rationale was that the Sudetenland was traditionally part of Germany, inhabited primarily by German-speaking people. Britain and France acceded to Hitler's demand, and we all know what happened next.

 

China has a historical claim on physical territory of Taiwan, and the majority of the Taiwanese population are descended from the Nationalist Chinese who occupied Taiwan in 1949, so they certainly have a point. To add a further complication, almost half of the population of Taiwan are in favour of re-unification with the Mainland. 

 

China has made its intentions clear.  The issue now is the impact of re-unification on the strategic interests of the USA and its allies, and how far both sides are prepared to go in pursuit of their interests. 

As I understand it, the Taiwanese in favour of reunification are only in favour under specific circumstances i.e. not seeing their civil liberties crushed.

 

Taiwan arguably has a greater claim to China than China does to Taiwan. It's one reason China - or more accurately the CCP - gets antsy about the whole situation.

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26 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

I have no idea what the solution is like I said, Nancy Pelosi probably isn't the answer though.

Most military strategists posited that if Russia rolled into Ukraine - which seemed outlandish at one point - the recently strengthening of relations between Putin and China meant Taiwan was likely next.

 

What do you suggest the democratic world does? This is very much one that can probably only be judged fully in hindsight, like Ukraine. Do nothing, and China invades, and you're left counting the bodies. A show of diplomatic relations with Taiwan is about as mild a line in the sand as the US can draw.

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11 minutes ago, Babb'sBurstNad said:

As I understand it, the Taiwanese in favour of reunification are only in favour under specific circumstances i.e. not seeing their civil liberties crushed.

 

Taiwan arguably has a greater claim to China than China does to Taiwan. It's one reason China - or more accurately the CCP - gets antsy about the whole situation.

I didnt realise taiwan would embrace reunification under any circumstances. As I gather, when the communists revolution began, the 'old' Chinese regime fled to Taiwan and set up camp there.

 

For whatever reasons, the communists failed to invade Taiwan or decided to stick with the gains they had. China is a lot more powerful and bellicose than it was back in the day and are trying to grab more control in and around the South China Sea as well. If that kicks off, it will make Putin's action in Ukraine seem like a tea party.

 

Oh and we do get a lot of our goods and tech directly or indirectly from China so parallels with the gas from Russia (not that we get much directly from them).

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I really don't know anything about the conditions specified by those in favour of re-unification.  In the 30 years since the advent of democracy in Taiwan, there has been a number of changes of government between those in favour of independence and those in favour of re-unification, and the majority either way is normally slim.  If the re-unification party has any illusions about imposing conditions on China, they only need to look at Hong Kong. 

 

From 1949 until the late 1980s when the Chiang dynasty ended, Taiwan was officially at war with China.  The Taiwanese government (KMT) position for those 40 years was that they were going to invade China and retake control of the country as the "rightful" government, which constitutes their claim. The fact remains that the Communists and Nationalists fought a civil war from the early 1930s to 1949, and the Nationalists lost. Despite spending massively on their armed forces, it was never likely that Taiwan would be able to invade China, and realistically the purpose of their military power was to deter China from attacking them. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Babb'sBurstNad said:

What do you suggest the democratic world does? This is very much one that can probably only be judged fully in hindsight, like Ukraine. Do nothing, and China invades, and you're left counting the bodies. A show of diplomatic relations with Taiwan is about as mild a line in the sand as the US can draw.

 

I guess if I was forced to have an opinion it'd be that we try having better relations with China if we're so bothered and try to push them in the direction of not invading. Maybe try to find a way that the current situation can be maintained more instead of being so hostile to China and doing shit like having Pelosi in Taiwan.

 

This is very unlikely to be attempted though because China are seen as a threat to US dominance, so we'll probably never know how it could've gone.

 

If the other option is to carry on winding them up until there's an invasion then try the Ukraine method of helping them defend the place though, maybe even Trump will have turned out to have been right if this is accurate :

 

Quote

According to former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s memoir, Trump liked to point to the tip of one of his Sharpies and say, “This is Taiwan,” then point to the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and say, “This is China.”

“Taiwan is like two feet from China,” Trump told one Republican senator. “We are 8,000 miles away. If they invade, there isn’t a fucking thing we can do about it.”

 

 

The Four Mysteries of Pelosi’s Troublesome Taiwan Trip

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3 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

I guess if I was forced to have an opinion it'd be that we try having better relations with China if we're so bothered and try to push them in the direction of not invading. Maybe try to find a way that the current situation can be maintained more instead of being so hostile to China and doing shit like having Pelosi in Taiwan.

 

This is very unlikely to be attempted though because China are seen as a threat to US dominance, so we'll probably never know how it could've gone.

 

If the other option is to carry on winding them up until there's an invasion then try the Ukraine method of helping them defend the place though, maybe even Trump will have turned out to have been right if this is accurate :

 

 

The Four Mysteries of Pelosi’s Troublesome Taiwan Trip

Maybe ask people in Hong Kong how the progressive diplomatic approach works with the Communist Party.

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The Western powers have been happily selling weapons and military know-how to Taiwan for decades because it was in their military and economic interests to maintain the status quo.  China has routinely complained about these arms sales, and has successfully set about isolating Taiwan diplomatically.  

 

China now undoubtedly has the military power to overwhelm Taiwan. The only question is whether the USA and its allies will intervene in the event of an attack, and that decision is entirely dependent on the perceived threat to their strategic interests in the Pacific region should China occupy Taiwan. 

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6 minutes ago, Babb'sBurstNad said:

Maybe ask people in Hong Kong how the progressive diplomatic approach works with the Communist Party.

 

Yeah good point, the same with Tibet too which is why I'll never be a fan of the Chinese government. But what other options are there? Seriously try arming Taiwan in the hope that they'll defeat China? And have another risk of a wider war breaking out like we already have in Ukraine? This appraoch we have can't be sustained I don't think, and when you have China seen as a threat and no genuine attempts at anything other than trying to maintain US dominance (which is looking increasingly stupid and outdated) I don't get how anything is solved peacefully.

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1 minute ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

Yeah good point, the same with Tibet too which is why I'll never be a fan of the Chinese government. But what other options are there? Seriously try arming Taiwan in the hope that they'll defeat China? And have another risk of a wider war breaking out like we already have in Ukraine? This appraoch we have can't be sustained I don't think, and when you have China seen as a threat and no genuine attempts at anything other than trying to maintain US dominance (which is looking increasingly stupid and outdated) I don't get how anything is solved peacefully.

I don't think there are any options that guarantee peace. If Xi Jingping wants to roll into Taiwan he's going to, whether the yanks threaten him or give him a reacharound. Like Putin, that's the problem with dictators.

 

Does feel like we're heading back to the nukes race and mutually assured destruction though. Maybe this is how the apes take over.

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52 minutes ago, Babb'sBurstNad said:

 

Taiwan arguably has a greater claim to China than China does to Taiwan. 

True - Taiwan was China until the beginning of the Chinese Civil war. Then Taiwan was Japan for awhile. Then back to being China until the end of the civil war.

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20 minutes ago, Shooter in the Motor said:

It’s no Top Gun.

 

Neither is Cruise. China are threatening a IS ally and the little shithouse is nowhere to be seen. Maverick my arse.

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True - Taiwan was China until the beginning of the Chinese Civil war. Then Taiwan was Japan for awhile. Then back to being China until the end of the civil war.

 

Not exactly.  Taiwan was occupied by Japan in the 1890s, and was run as a Japanese colony until 1945. Japan withdrew at the end of WW2, and the country was left to its indigenous population until the Chinese Nationalists occupied in 1949.  Going further back, Taiwan was occupied by the Dutch for a while, and intermittently by various Chinese dynasties. 

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China now undoubtedly has the military power to overwhelm Taiwan.

They have for decades.

 

According to this panel of experts, https://www.cfr.org/event/evolving-military-balance-taiwan-strait  a Chinese invasion 20 years ago could have been easily repelled. In the past 20 years the balance of power has swung significantly in China's favour, and the Taiwan military now concede that they could only hold on for a matter of days without external intervention. 

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