Summer 2022 Transfer Thread

[Scott_M]

15 minutes ago, Boss said:

 

I don't think they were risks. Both of them were one of the top 5 best players (in their position) in the world. Arguably Alisson was number one and Van Dik was top three. Bellingham isn't even in the top 30 best midfielders in the world. It's not even in the same ballpark as far as comparisons go. Buying someone like Joshua Kimmich for £80m would be comparable to Van Dijk and Alisson.

 

Bellingham has shown nothing. He's not considered one of the best in the world. He's not running the show for Dortmund like Sancho was - and he's been a massive flop. He wasn't scoring a goal a game like Werner was - who's also been a massive flop. Just a solid player, nothing more. Haaland is going for £63m and he's scored a goal a game in the Champions League and the league for two straight seasons. Bellingham for £80m+ is terrible value for money. 

 

 

We’re going to have to agree to disagree on the VVD and Alisson stuff! I can’t add more than I have. 
 

My point still remains on Bellingham. If Klopp and team are as sure on him as they were VVD & Alisson, and we can afford it, then we should go for it. 
 

If they aren’t as sure, we should look elsewhere. 

[Boss]

25 minutes ago, Scott_M said:

We’re going to have to agree to disagree on the VVD and Alisson stuff! I can’t add more than I have. 
 

My point still remains on Bellingham. If Klopp and team are as sure on him as they were VVD & Alisson, and we can afford it, then we should go for it. 
 

If they aren’t as sure, we should look elsewhere. 

 

We won't sign him. That Indykalla is a bullshit merchant. The only scenario where we'll sign him is if Salah leaves - which is possible, but it'll be a terrible decision by the club because there's no comparison between what Salah offers us right now versus what Bellingham will.

 

Chances are we'll end up signing someone like Tchouameni for about £50m or some unheralded player that'll go on to be brilliant. If you look at our signings (at a similar cost), they were both in their mid 20's. We've never signed an 18-year old for £80m or anything even remotely akin to it under Klopp. 

 

You don't sign 18-year-olds for those fees. That's what United do. They almost always end up as flops. A player should be signed at 23-25 years old. That's the perfect age where they've gone through their trials and tribulations. They may have been hyped as wonder kids early on, but now they've crashed down to Earth. You want to catch them as they start a rapid ascent. Just like Diaz and Jota.

 

We could win the title next season with Rice in our midfield. Chances are we wouldn't with Bellingham. He's too green. He's not up to speed with the pace of the league. He'll make a lot of mistakes due to his age and inexperience. Our goal here is to win titles, not to have the best team on paper. 

[Carvalho Diablo]

Did he shag your tortoise?

[Scott_M]

35 minutes ago, Boss said:

 

We won't sign him. That Indykalla is a bullshit merchant. The only scenario where we'll sign him is if Salah leaves - which is possible, but it'll be a terrible decision by the club because there's no comparison between what Salah offers us right now versus what Bellingham will.

 

Chances are we'll end up signing someone like Tchouameni for about £50m or some unheralded player that'll go on to be brilliant. If you look at our signings (at a similar cost), they were both in their mid 20's. We've never signed an 18-year old for £80m or anything even remotely akin to it under Klopp. 

 

You don't sign 18-year-olds for those fees. That's what United do. They almost always end up as flops. A player should be signed at 23-25 years old. That's the perfect age where they've gone through their trials and tribulations. They may have been hyped as wonder kids early on, but now they've crashed down to Earth. You want to catch them as they start a rapid ascent. Just like Diaz and Jota.

 

We could win the title next season with Rice in our midfield. Chances are we wouldn't with Bellingham. He's too green. He's not up to speed with the pace of the league. He'll make a lot of mistakes due to his age and inexperience. Our goal here is to win titles, not to have the best team on paper. 

I’ve also said Indy Whateverhescalled is troll and a WUM. I don’t trust his rumours one bit, which is why I’ve mocked them when posting. 
 

However, it has been mentioned numerous times in more reputable outlets, including in the run up to deadline day, that the club and Klopp really like Bellingham. 
 

I don’t really have an opinion on Bellingham one way or the other. I’m not getting suckered in because of Twitter WUMS or because he’s good in FIFA or FM’22. 
 

My point is if Klopp and team like him as much as reported, then we should trust their opinion and go for it. 
 

I have to admit, I’m not sure what the points your making here are.

If it’s there are better options available for less money (although I suggest Rice would cost more) then fair enough. IMO, Klopp and team have proved themselves enough to know what their doing. 

[Carvalho Diablo]

I once had that Grizz Khan twitter ITK fella dm me. It went something like this...

 

GK: Did you call me a nonce?

 

Me: Yes

 

 

[Jose Jones]

The reasons people want Bellingham is because he is really good for his age, English which we need, and not a twat.

I agree we don’t spend big on youngsters though, we either poach them at 16 (or 19 with Carvalho) or wait until 23-25 age where we can be sure they are worth the money. So can’t see us signing him.

 

Also he’s more of an attacking central midfielder and we already have Curtis and Harvey filling the young English attacking midfielder role.

[sir roger]

5 minutes ago, Jose Jones said:

The reasons people want Bellingham is because he is really good for his age, English which we need, and not a twat.

I agree we don’t spend big on youngsters though, we either poach them at 16 (or 19 with Carvalho) or wait until 23-25 age where we can be sure they are worth the money. So can’t see us signing him.

 

Also he’s more of an attacking central midfielder and we already have Curtis and Harvey filling the young English attacking midfielder role.

I tend to this view mainly because of the midfield stocks the older section are the more defensive guys , Milner, Thiago and Hendo.

[skend04]

Well, seeing as my bitching that we wouldn't sign anyone in January put the mockers on FSGs transfer policy, I'll repeat it here.

 

Lads, we won't sign anyone.

[Boss]

Apparently, Spurs sent a contract to Bentancur that they'd drafted up for Luis Diaz and it still had Diaz's name on it.

 

https://www.record.pt/multimedia/videos/amp/tottenham-enviou-contrato-para-bentancur-com-o-nome-de-luis-diaz

[Moo]

No chance we'll get Bellingham, who will end up at the Mancs if they get a decent manager this summer.

[Grinch]

Just now, Moo said:

No chance we'll get Bellingham, who will end up at the Mancs if they get a decent manager this summer.

It’ll be like Sancho and Mbappe.  Talk about them for years and then the minute they’re actually available and a club that spends proper money is interested, go oh well plucky wee Liverpool can’t compete with that sort of money.

[Scott_M]

22 minutes ago, Grinch said:

It’ll be like Sancho and Mbappe.  Talk about them for years and then the minute they’re actually available and a club that spends proper money is interested, go oh well plucky wee Liverpool can’t compete with that sort of money.

Like Diaz?

[Megadrive Man]

30 minutes ago, Moo said:

No chance we'll get Bellingham, who will end up at the Mancs if they get a decent manager this summer.

Somebody asked him if he was going to join Man United a few days ago and he laughed and said don't be silly.

 

I think that at the rumoured 80 to 90 million, Bellingham would be too big a risk for us. He's obviously very talented but I think we will pursue cheaper options.

 

There is no doubt that Midfield is a key area for transfers for us now. Fabinho is the only current midfielder I can definitely see being in the starting line up in two years time. The other 7 or 8 players all have question marks around either their fitness or form. Ideally we will bring in at least two or three midfielders this summers to replace Milner, Keita and or Ox. 

[3 Stacks]

Boss is right. Alisson and van Dijk, although this is a bit of hindsight, weren't risks. They were the best players on the market for their respective positions. With Bellingham, he's a fine player right now, but if you were spending 80m or so on him, you're projecting loads of things and betting on his potential. That's not a sure bet.

 

We'll see where he is in 2023 or in a couple years. His move likely isn't happening soon, anyway.

[Grinch]

2 hours ago, Scott_M said:

Like Diaz?

I don’t even know how it made sense for you to bring Diaz Into it.  A player that was signed for £30 odd million and wanted by the mighty spurs.

 

So no nothing like Diaz at all.  If Bellingham goes for stupid money it will be exactly like the dumb cunts who talked about Mbappe for years (until he available)

 

LFC don’t shop at that table.

[Scott_M]

42 minutes ago, Grinch said:

I don’t even know how it made sense for you to bring Diaz Into it.  A player that was signed for £30 odd million and wanted by the mighty spurs.

 

So no nothing like Diaz at all.  If Bellingham goes for stupid money it will be exactly like the dumb cunts who talked about Mbappe for years (until he available)

 

LFC don’t shop at that table.

It was more “we’ll talk and talk about them and never sign him” comment. We’ve all read the Diaz stories for weeks, but the vast majority of posters, myself included, just dismissed them.

 

As for beating Spurs, there was a time not long ago when it was the other way round. They aren’t as good as they were a couple of years ago but they are still in contention for a CL space, have a new stadium, some excellent players, an excellent coach and could be viewed as being on the up, and likely more playing time. I don’t think £37m rising to £50m in add ons is small change to easily dismiss. 
 

We did beat Chelsea, City & Arsenal to VVD though. We didn’t have to out bid them, because he made it clear he only wanted us.

[Boss]

1 hour ago, 3 Stacks said:

Boss is right. Alisson and van Dijk, although this is a bit of hindsight, weren't risks. They were the best players on the market for their respective positions. With Bellingham, he's a fine player right now, but if you were spending 80m or so on him, you're projecting loads of things and betting on his potential. That's not a sure bet.

 

We'll see where he is in 2023 or in a couple years. His move likely isn't happening soon, anyway.

 

Here's a list of Fifa's highest potential young midfielders based on their respective year:

 

2015: James Ward Prowse

2016: Paul Pogba

2017: Dele Alli

2018: Marco Asensio

2019: Amine Harit

2020: Kai Havertz

2021: Sandro Tonali

2022: Jude Bellingham

 

You can't accurately predict what a player will become until they hit their mid-twenties (in most cases). Occasionally you have an extraordinary talent where you can tell by their early twenties. You can't predict what's going to happen with an 18-year-old.

[Scott_M]

12 minutes ago, Boss said:

You can't accurately predict what a player will become until they hit their mid-twenties (in most cases). Occasionally you have an extraordinary talent where you can tell by their early twenties. You can't predict what's going to happen with an 18-year-old.

I get all that, what if Bellingham is a generational talent like Rooney or Owen or somebody? 
 

The mancs obviously saw it big in Rooney back in 2004…

 

 

if Klopp and team think it’s a risk worth taking, we should do it. 

[3 Stacks]

1 hour ago, Scott_M said:

I get all that, what if Bellingham is a generational talent like Rooney or Owen or somebody? 
 

The mancs obviously saw it big in Rooney back in 2004…

 

 

if Klopp and team think it’s a risk worth taking, we should do it. 

If there's a generational talent, you see it very clearly. Mbappe was such a case, recently. Bellingham I don't think can be put on that level. It's wait and see for him. We need to see more.

[Ne Moe Imya]

10 hours ago, Scott_M said:

This is why I don’t get some posters saying it’s not a good deal or good value for money. 
 

Throwing rough numbers out here, but if we sign Bellingham for £80m and he plays for us until he’s 30, that’s £7.3m per season.

 

VVD signed in 2018 and his current deal runs until 2025. So VVD is costing us £10.7m per season. 
 

Alisson signed in 2018 and his current deal runs until 2027 - he is costing us £7.2m per season. 
 

If we’re sure Bellingham is the player for us and we’re prepared to pay the amount Dortmund want for him, then IMO it is a value for money.
 

Unless some are now saying VVD & Alisson aren’t value for money? 
 

I fully appreciate it’s a lot of money on a player not fully proven, you could also say the say the same or VVD & Alisson. 
 

If Klopp and the back room staff are 100% sure on him and we can afford him, I think we should go for it. 

This is not at all how this works, or at least, it's incomplete.

It drives me insane when people discuss player value as if they transfer fee is what a player is worth. "Player A is twice as good as Player B, therefore if Player B is worth £20m then Player A is worth £40m."

The transfer fee is essentially what a player is worth over and above their wages. Because what a club cares about is the total cost of a player per season - they do not care if the money is going to the previous club or to the player in wages. So if Player A is twice as good as Player B, and Player B is available for a £20m fee and would sign for £5m/season for 4 years (£10m/season total cost), then you'd spend a total of £20m/season to sign Player A, theoretically. You don't care if that's on a free with a £400k/week wage, or if you pay a £60m fee and then sign him on a £100k/week wage.

 

In Bellingham's case, he'd cost probably £80m in fee and let's say at least £200k/week in wages. So over a 5-year contract that'd be £26m/season. The most expensive player we've ever signed is van Dijk, and he cost just under £25m/season in total between fee and wages, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that we'd go higher, but I agree with others who have posted that it's very unlikely we'd choose to buy a player at that price of his age. If he were 22 and had 5 years of that level of production behind him, then maybe. At his age, we would have to be VERY sure he'd be a huge success to risk it.

[Scott_M]

20 minutes ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

This is not at all how this works, or at least, it's incomplete.

It drives me insane when people discuss player value as if they transfer fee is what a player is worth. "Player A is twice as good as Player B, therefore if Player B is worth £20m then Player A is worth £40m."

The transfer fee is essentially what a player is worth over and above their wages. Because what a club cares about is the total cost of a player per season - they do not care if the money is going to the previous club or to the player in wages. So if Player A is twice as good as Player B, and Player B is available for a £20m fee and would sign for £5m/season for 4 years (£10m/season total cost), then you'd spend a total of £20m/season to sign Player A, theoretically. You don't care if that's on a free with a £400k/week wage, or if you pay a £60m fee and then sign him on a £100k/week wage.

 

In Bellingham's case, he'd cost probably £80m in fee and let's say at least £200k/week in wages. So over a 5-year contract that'd be £26m/season. The most expensive player we've ever signed is van Dijk, and he cost just under £25m/season in total between fee and wages, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that we'd go higher, but I agree with others who have posted that it's very unlikely we'd choose to buy a player at that price of his age. If he were 22 and had 5 years of that level of production behind him, then maybe. At his age, we would have to be VERY sure he'd be a huge success to risk it.

I think what I said was incomplete, rather than dismissing it! 
 

What if we signed Bellingham for £80m and he got £100k per week? Based on the above that would put him at £21m per season. 
 

Also, VVD and Alisson have just agreed extensions, so that fee is potentially spread further. In Bellingham’s case, it could be 10-15 years. 

What would Salah be now? £40m fee spread over 4 years and at £200k per week? So similar to the above figures of the 3 mentioned players?

 

Believe me when I say it, I don’t have an opinion either way in Bellingham. If Klopp & team want him then we should go for him, if Klopp and team think there are better players or better value elsewhere, then we shouldn’t. 
 

I agree with everybody who says it’s a risk, it is calculated and in recent years, we’ve been getting these risks right. 

[TD_LFC]

Splitting the difference between both your wages to give him a starting wage of 150k and using the assumption of a 50% increase in wages for each new deal, based on an 80 million transfer and a new contract between years 4 and 5 of each of the first two contracts you'd be looking at close to a £250 million outlay for 13 years of service. He'd cost;

 

1st deal

 

£16,000,000 in amortised value + £7,800,000 in base wage per year, over the course of 4 years that would be a total of £95.2 million

 

2nd deal 

 

£3,200,000 in amortised value + £11,700,000 in base wage per year, over the course of 4 years that would be a total of £59.6 million

 

3rd deal

 

£640,000 in amortised value + £17,550,000 in base wage per year, over the course of 5 years that would be a total of £90.95 million.

 

Total Outlay  = £245.75 million excluding signing on fee's and bonuses.

 

In reality, despite the transfer fee being spread over the length of the deal for amortisation purposes it's likely we'd have to pay the full fee within the first three years so the real cost for for the first 4 years would be £111.2 million (again excluding bonuses/signing on fee's).

 

It's not undoable but the question will be what else could you get for the money.

 

 

[Ne Moe Imya]

1 hour ago, Scott_M said:

I think what I said was incomplete, rather than dismissing it! 
 

What if we signed Bellingham for £80m and he got £100k per week? Based on the above that would put him at £21m per season. 
 

Also, VVD and Alisson have just agreed extensions, so that fee is potentially spread further. In Bellingham’s case, it could be 10-15 years. 

What would Salah be now? £40m fee spread over 4 years and at £200k per week? So similar to the above figures of the 3 mentioned players?

 

Believe me when I say it, I don’t have an opinion either way in Bellingham. If Klopp & team want him then we should go for him, if Klopp and team think there are better players or better value elsewhere, then we shouldn’t. 
 

I agree with everybody who says it’s a risk, it is calculated and in recent years, we’ve been getting these risks right. 

Fair enough, I agree with the last bit for sure.

 

Honestly, lookin at the Diaz signing purely on the numbers, if it were United making that signing I'd be laughing at them. Where with Jota, Mane, and Salah we took advantage of a finishing slump to buy for lower than the price should have been, with Diaz he's on a finishing hot streak, meaning you'd expect the price to be inflated relative to his true value. Given that he's 25, a single amazing season weighed against 3-4 seasons of meh, and you'd normally be questioning things.

 

But when you put it in context with Edwards and the genius lab saying "yeah, we think this isn't a statistical anomaly, we think it's him making the leap" you'd say they've definitely been getting the risk analysis right lately and you'd give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it's going to be a success.

 

So in the context of Bellingham, you'd probably do the same. If we go for him at 80m and whatever huge wages, I'd say they must be very, very confident he's going to work out. Because the only times we've gone for a fee anywhere near that (VVD and Alisson) it has, and the track record proves itself.

[Ne Moe Imya]

4 minutes ago, TD_LFC said:

Splitting the difference between both your wages to give him a starting wage of 150k and using the assumption of a 50% increase in wages for each new deal, based on an 80 million transfer and a new contract between years 4 and 5 of each of the first two contracts you'd be looking at close to a £250 million outlay for 13 years of service. He'd cost;

 

1st deal

 

£16,000,000 in amortised value + £7,800,000 in base wage per year, over the course of 4 years that would be a total of £95.2 million

 

2nd deal 

 

£3,200,000 in amortised value + £11,700,000 in base wage per year, over the course of 4 years that would be a total of £59.6 million

 

3rd deal

 

£640,000 in amortised value + £17,550,000 in base wage per year, over the course of 5 years that would be a total of £90.95 million.

 

Total Outlay  = £245.75 million excluding signing on fee's and bonuses.

 

In reality, despite the transfer fee being spread over the length of the deal for amortisation purposes it's likely we'd have to pay the full fee within the first three years so the real cost for for the first 4 years would be £111.2 million (again excluding bonuses/signing on fee's).

 

It's not undoable but the question will be what else could you get for the money.

 

 

Yes, I think this is more how they'll be thinking about it - the one complication you haven't factored in (and is pretty much unknowable) is how much he'll be worth if we were to sell. Because the one thing that will definitely play a role in the numbers guys' heads will be "if it doesn't work, and we have to sell him, can we get most of our money back?"

And that is why Bellingham might be a gamble that we end up chancing. Because if you imagine a future where he turns into a decent-but-not-great player in 4 years, he's still a 22 year old CM who's played for England - West Ham or Newcastle will give us at least 40-50m. So the upside, looking at his statistical profile, is that he's a generational midfield talent to partner with Harvey and they lead us to multiple trophies. And the downside is not really that bad as you can sell him for a decent wedge anyway. Might be a risk that they end up sanctioning.

[3 Stacks]

I think being interested in someone like Carvalho likely eliminates being interested in someone like Bellingham. Because for one; we don't stash young players, we use them in the 1st team if we think they're good enough and two; it reduces the need for someone like Bellingham, who is young, but already very expensive.