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PODCAST: Liverpool 3 Leicester 3 (Reds win 5-4 on pens) - Match Reaction


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13 hours ago, m0e said:

On the penalties, I'm pretty sure I saw Milner give the first one to them, after they won the toss.

 

Very strange decision on the face of it, but it is based on some study someone did a few years back that claimed you have a 60/40 advantage going first.

 

EDIT - there were 2 tosses, one for the side and one for the first kicker.

 

That's been misinterpreted apparently, because he didn't take into account who won the toss.

 

An analysis of 207 penalty shootouts in 14 international football tournaments between July 2003 and August 2017, including the World and European Championships, found that only 56 percent of all captains opted to go first, while the remaining 44 percent sent their keepers into the goal first. Shooting second could be a strategic decision, the researchers suggest, if the team's own goalkeeper is considered better than that of the other team and more likely to make a save.

 

As a result, the evaluation confirms earlier studies, according to which the decision to take the first penalty kick does not bring an advantage. In the games analysed, the winning frequency of the teams kicking first was only about 51 per cent. The result of the coin toss, on the other hand, made a difference: about 60 percent of the teams whose captains won the draw were able to win the subsequent penalty shootout. This is significantly better than the 50 percent chance one might expect if the captains' decision did not matter.

 

https://www.mpg.de/17126111/coin-toss-influences-penalty-shootouts

 

Get out much, Moe?

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