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Street Preacher

Long shots

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Now this might just be my memory playing tricks with me, but is there a lack of long distance shots in the modern game? 

 

I seem to remember that in the 90s and early part of this millennium there used to be a veritable cornucopia of shots either flying into the back of the net or smacking against the bar. If this is the case, is it something to do with players have less time on the ball to pick a shot, players being trained differently or is it something else? Or am talking bollocks?

 

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Less time on the ball and the number geeks will have concluded that it's a pretty shit use of the ball generally.

 

I guess that 20/30 years ago midfielders had to be able to tackle, pass and shoot. Now they generally need to be able to pass and run.

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4 minutes ago, Street Preacher said:

Now this might just be my memory playing tricks with me, but is there a lack of long distance shots in the modern game? 

 

I seem to remember that in the 90s and early part of this millennium there used to be a veritable cornucopia of shots either flying into the back of the net or smacking against the bar. If this is the case, is it something to do with players have less time on the ball to pick a shot, players being trained differently or is it something else? Or am talking bollocks?

 

I think you're spot on, deffo a lot less long range shooting especially by us.

 

Turnip head Turner cottoned on to this supposedly most goals were scored from the attacking team just having 3 touches of the ball. Hence, supposedly, why the 'long ball' game came into being.

 

I think it's clear from our style of play we want to work the ball into the box, around 12 yards from goal before attempting a shot since more often than not, this is what we do. And surprise, surprise, that's where most of our goals come from.

 

Great intricate movements can result in some great goals but there's nothing better than seeing the net bulge from a 30 yard rocket in my opinion.

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I think as stats have become more prevalent in the modern game they’ve brought the realisation that scoring from far out has low percentage chance of success. 
 

Tyler and Carragher actually touched on this in their commentary the other day and the first one that came into Tyler’s mind was, naturally, Kompany against Leicester a couple of years ago. 

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After a quick Google there's quite a few articles about this. It definitely looks like having a go from 30 yards is dying out. Like has already been said, there's such a small chance of a shot over 30/35 yards going in that it's generally not worth it when the likelihood is you're just going to lose possession. 

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Statistically speaking, long shots are a terrible choice for a player to make. I think if I recall, the odds of scoring from 30+ yards are around 1%, and get lower as you get further away.

 

Which, if you consider that possession of the ball in the final third leads to a goal somewhere between 2-3% of the time, means that if you decide to pass up possession to "have a whack" you're actively harming your team's chances of winning the match.

 

There are probably a few players (Gerrard, Messi, etc) and situations (there's no one on your team in the box and you're wide open with time to set your body for the shot) where it makes sense but it's pretty rare that it's a net positive for the team.

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MV5BMTYzMTc1NTEyNV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNjA2

 

Memories of the Brechin thread. Arguably the best thread on the FF ever. Deleted by the fucking Politburo incase Si won an oscar 

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8 minutes ago, Rushies tash said:

Yeah, but what a 1%...

 

gerrard-miss.gif?quality=90&strip=all&zo

It's an odd one, isn't it? Says a lot about football and why we love it as supporters, honestly, and why it's difficult to break it down into just simply numbers.

The latter two clips are arguably defensible choices, statistically speaking. Gerrard was a great striker of the ball and he has time and space to pick his spot. But this one against Boro, is an objectively TERRIBLE decision, and yet it's one of my favourite goals ever.

Look at it. He can easily pass to Baros (I think?), a pass he probably completes at least 80% of the time, and then Baros is going to have a great, central shooting position. Maybe a 0.1-0.2 xG shot, if you're looking statistically. So overall, the odds that Gerrard's pass leads to a goal there is around 8-16% if he chooses to pass. Instead, he passes that up for a 1% chance of a goal from 35 yards.

 

But the ball sits up perfectly, he strikes it purely, and produces one of the finest parabolas the sport will ever see, the ball curling away from the keeper and then back into the corner with such precision you couldn't possibly improve upon it. And on such works of art is the sport built.

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Well, you won't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket. Fat Fwank made a career out of it.

 

Against the dregs of the league putting on the low block, always a source of frustration in me that the players don't attempt this more. The front three and the midfielders certainly have it in their locker. Jota and Thiago though, are the only ones having shots from distance in recent memory although I expect this to be coached out of them next season.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Pungkoq Hang said:

Well, you won't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket. Fat Fwank made a career out of it.

 

Against the dregs of the league putting on the low block, always a source of frustration in me that the players don't attempt this more. The front three and the midfielders certainly have it in their locker. Jota and Thiago though, are the only ones having shots from distance in recent memory although I expect this to be coached out of them next season.

 

 

Other than Ox, none of the midfielders really have shown they have it. Gini for Holland is never what we saw, Hendo has done it about once every 2/3 years,Milner not for a long time, Jones once. A proper goal scoring midfielder has been missing for a long time, since Coutinho, under Rodgers

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11 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

Statistically speaking, long shots are a terrible choice for a player to make. I think if I recall, the odds of scoring from 30+ yards are around 1%, and get lower as you get further away.

 

Which, if you consider that possession of the ball in the final third leads to a goal somewhere between 2-3% of the time, means that if you decide to pass up possession to "have a whack" you're actively harming your team's chances of winning the match.

 

There are probably a few players (Gerrard, Messi, etc) and situations (there's no one on your team in the box and you're wide open with time to set your body for the shot) where it makes sense but it's pretty rare that it's a net positive for the team.

Long shots dont have to be 30 yards out,the edge of the box is 18 yards out. The ball moves more nowadays due it its design so it seems a waste not to test the opposition keeper now and again.

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Repeatedly fucking about with the design of the ball itself hasn't helped.  In making the flight of the ball "more random" as I recall reading somewhere, it means it's harder to put the damned thing on target.  Look at Fabinho's long range strikes, he's having to strike the ball almost perfectly straight through the middle with no spin.

Any slight leaning back or spin on the ball and it's in the crowd.

It's probably why most players are reluctant to take a shot on while the ball is moving, striking a dead ball at least gives them a better chance of controlling any spin on the ball.

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On 23/05/2021 at 13:33, Street Preacher said:

Now this might just be my memory playing tricks with me, but is there a lack of long distance shots in the modern game? 

They've kicked the bucket. 

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15 hours ago, scudger99 said:

Repeatedly fucking about with the design of the ball itself hasn't helped.  In making the flight of the ball "more random" as I recall reading somewhere, it means it's harder to put the damned thing on target.  Look at Fabinho's long range strikes, he's having to strike the ball almost perfectly straight through the middle with no spin.

Any slight leaning back or spin on the ball and it's in the crowd.

It's probably why most players are reluctant to take a shot on while the ball is moving, striking a dead ball at least gives them a better chance of controlling any spin on the ball.

Yeah, that's when C. Ronaldo started doing those toe punt free kicks too (Gareth Bale did them as well).  Just hoofing the ball slightly off centre then it would swerve all over the place and hopefully into the top corner. 

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