Russia v Ukraine

[chrisbonnie]

10 hours ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

Ukrainians must be shitting themselves at Trump winning the election, him being Putins puppet.

Didn't Russia invade Ukraine in 2022? 

[Bobby Hundreds]

18 minutes ago, chrisbonnie said:

Didn't Russia invade Ukraine in 2022? 

The general talk is Trump wants to stop backing Ukraine financially and with weapons, allowing Russia to walk to victory. We will see. I'm not to arse either way I'm an ant and these cunts will play their games of power and greed regardless.

[Pete]

8 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

The general talk is Trump wants to stop backing Ukraine financially and with weapons, allowing Russia to walk to victory. We will see. I'm not to arse either way I'm an ant and these cunts will play their games of power and greed regardless.

Problem is one he gets Ukraine, where does he stop?  Poland? Finland?  

[M_B]

RIP Ukraine.

 

Moldova - you're next. 

[SasaS]

Now we will probably learn there was no EU contingency planning for Trump pulling US out of support.

[Ne Moe Imya]

12 hours ago, M_B said:

RIP Ukraine.

 

Moldova - you're next. 

 

Pretty much. The interesting question is whether he stops there, or goes on and tries a nibble at Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania or Poland.

 

It's a pretty terrifying question, all things considered. The West is going to try the Neville Chamberlain approach again, and it didn't work out too well last time.

[Red Phoenix]

Trump has said in the past that he wants Ukrainians and Russians to stop dying. He hasn't said anything about allowing Russia to go right through Ukraine though whilst they're left defenceless that I can see and he's said the opposite at least once :

 

 

I'm not agreeing with everything said in this article either, it was just where I found the quote I was looking for : https://archive.ph/Aa6Fa

[Ne Moe Imya]

When one country is bent on doing evil and won't stop unless you can make them stop by force, then "stop the dying" translates to "give the aggressor what he wants."

 

But you knew that already, and so does Trump.

[Red Phoenix]

3 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

When one country is bent on doing evil and won't stop unless you can make them stop by force, then "stop the dying" translates to "give the aggressor what he wants."

 

But you knew that already, and so does Trump.

 

You can translate and assume whatever you want however you want, if Trump "stops the dying" though Russia aren't getting through Ukraine so they won't be having a "nibble" at Poland.

[Jose Jones]

The only way to “stop the dying” is for Putin to pack up the Russian troops and go home.

If Trump can get him to do that, then tip of the cap will be in order.

[Red Phoenix]

43 minutes ago, Jose Jones said:

The only way to “stop the dying” is for Putin to pack up the Russian troops and go home.

If Trump can get him to do that, then tip of the cap will be in order.

 

Putin clearly isn't packing up the Russian troops and going home, as much as many of us would like him to. That's been pointed out for years now already and I'm sure plenty of people in the US gov accepted that long before Trump won the election.

 

I'm not under the illusion that Trump is going to magically solve this whole situation either. Even if the war does stop for the time being with him arranging an agreement between both sides I'll still be really sceptical of it lasting any decent amount of time.

[redinblack]

9 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

Trump has said in the past that he wants Ukrainians and Russians to stop dying. He hasn't said anything about allowing Russia to go right through Ukraine though whilst they're left defenceless that I can see and he's said the opposite at least once :

 

 

I'm not agreeing with everything said in this article either, it was just where I found the quote I was looking for : https://archive.ph/Aa6Fa

You know and I know that what he says he will say to Putin and what he will actually say to Putin are not the same. He will sit in front of Putin like a frightened child like he did in Helsinki.

[M_B]

The only credible peace must include a long term security guanantee for Ukraine - land concessions in return for Nato membership. 

 

Otherwise any negotiated peace will be torn up after Russia has prepared for round two.

 

But I doubt that will happen with Trump. He'll give a verbal guarantee that the US will provide more support if Russia refuses peace, but that won't ever materialize. In effect, we'll just have a negotiated cease fire for 4 years. 

[Red Phoenix]

21 minutes ago, redinblack said:

You know and I know that what he says he will say to Putin and what he will actually say to Putin are not the same. He will sit in front of Putin like a frightened child like he did in Helsinki.

 

I haven't got a clue what Trump will actually say to Putin. The main thing I was pointing out was that he said he wants people to stop dying, obviously Russia going through Ukraine and reaching Poland means that isn't going to happen so I'm going to assume there'll be efforts to try and make sure that some type of relative peace is arranged, even if it doesn't last.

[SasaS]

RP, nobody is going to say I want people to keep dying.

 

What he wants is not to fund and send weapons to Ukraine any longer, hoping Russia will get what they want and Ukrainians will somehow quickly go away as an issue. Like he didn't want to keep supporting Afghanistan's "forever war" any longer and that later went very well when Biden had to pull the troops out. There is peace in Afghanistan now and everything is great.

 

He also solved Middle East last time around, by allowing weapons sales to autocratic Arab regimes if they recognize Israel, which turned Palestinians further towards Iran. It's all just one great deal after another. It's an art with him.  

[Megadrive Man]

11 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

Trump has said in the past that he wants Ukrainians and Russians to stop dying. He hasn't said anything about allowing Russia to go right through Ukraine though whilst they're left defenceless that I can see and he's said the opposite at least once :

 

 

I'm not agreeing with everything said in this article either, it was just where I found the quote I was looking for : https://archive.ph/Aa6Fa

 

Do you not think Biden and the Democrats would have tried this strategy if they thought it would work?

[Red Phoenix]

23 minutes ago, SasaS said:

What he wants is not to fund and send weapons to Ukraine any longer, hoping Russia will get what they want and Ukrainians will somehow quickly go away as an issue.

 

That's on him then. Either way if people could actually stop dying and we had a ceasefire maybe that's a space where some type of lasting peace could look like more of a possibility.

 

2 minutes ago, Megadrive Man said:

Do you not think Biden and the Democrats would have tried this strategy if they thought it would work?

 

They've just spent an election year backing what Israel have done with regular weapons shipments and now Trump is back because of their failed election strategy so to be honest I'm not really sure.

[SasaS]

2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

That's on him then. Either way if people could actually stop dying and we had a ceasefire maybe that's a space where some type of lasting peace could look like more of a possibility.

 

 

They've just spent an election year backing what Israel have done with regular weapons shipments and now Trump is back because of their failed election strategy so to be honest I'm not really sure.

 

Lasting peace is possible if you have balance of power, when the price of war is too high and reward uncertain. If Israelis and Palestinians were dying one for one, for example, Israel would most likely pursue different paths of ensuring its security and / or survival.

[Red Phoenix]

20 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

Lasting peace is possible if you have balance of power, when the price of war is too high and reward uncertain. If Israelis and Palestinians were dying one for one, for example, Israel would most likely pursue different paths of ensuring its security and / or survival.

 

It's also possible if the governments of both countries aren't hating each other without any type of balance of power. I don't agree that Russia, Europe or the US should be wading into Ukraine with their warmongering or weapons though, I think the place would be better off left alone. Maybe that can happen at some stage but it might require a time where there's no Trump, Zelensky or Putin in power. For now though we're just going to have to hope the three of them can manage something that doesn't make the situation worse I suppose.

 

This doesn't mean I'm trying to say Zelensky is as bad as the others, more that him being there seems to wind Putin up and Putin being there seems to wind Zelensky up, I find it hard to see how they ever arrange real peace and maybe that's more likely with one or more of them gone and different leadership.

[SasaS]

5 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

It's also possible if the governments of both countries aren't hating each other without any type of balance of power. I don't agree that Russia, Europe or the US should be wading into Ukraine with their warmongering or weapons though, I think the place would be better off left alone. Maybe that can happen at some stage but it might require a time where there's no Trump, Zelensky or Putin in power. For now though we're just going to have to hope the three of them can manage something that doesn't make the situation worse I suppose.

 

This doesn't mean I'm trying to say Zelensky is as bad as the others, more that him being there seems to wind Putin up and Putin being there seems to wind Zelensky up, I find it hard to see how they ever arrange real peace and maybe that's more likely with one or more of them gone and different leadership.

 

But the whole problem is that Russia doesn't want to leave Ukraine alone. If Ukraine predominantly wanted to forever be Russia's bitch, there is very little US or the EU can do about it. Nor would they have much interest in doing it. Stakes in Ukraine are high for Moscow, not for the West or China or who ever else. For others, there is only a limited level of interest, possible opportunity. For Russia, it s a matter of utmost importance.  And obviously, by far the greatest importance is for the Ukrainians themselves. And this last thing is something many in the West bizarrely still fail to comprehend.

[Red Phoenix]

19 minutes ago, SasaS said:

But the whole problem is that Russia doesn't want to leave Ukraine alone. If Ukraine predominantly wanted to forever be Russia's bitch, there is very little US or the EU can do about it. Nor would they have much interest in doing it. Stakes in Ukraine are high for Moscow, not for the West or China or who ever else. For others, there is only a limited level of interest, possible opportunity. For Russia, it s a matter of utmost importance.  And obviously, by far the greatest importance is for the Ukrainians themselves. And this last thing is something many in the West bizarrely still fail to comprehend.

 

Whether or not Russia wants to leave Ukraine alone the idea of peace talks being a better option is shared by most Ukrainians now anyway if this is accurate so maybe it's best to just hope that something is worked out. Hopefully there's more polls on this though so there's a better idea of what people actually think. https://archive.ph/60owM

[Red Phoenix]

38 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

Whether or not Russia wants to leave Ukraine alone the idea of peace talks being a better option is shared by most Ukrainians now anyway if this is accurate so maybe it's best to just hope that something is worked out. Hopefully there's more polls on this though so there's a better idea of what people actually think. https://archive.ph/60owM

 

I looked for the source of this which I should've done before posting, sorry. It's not even accurate if we're talking about negotiations right now with no conditions. The only thing that's increased by 14% here is the idea that peace talks should start right now and that's gone from 20.9% to 35.2%. If you then add in withdrawing to the front line of Feb 23, 2022 before talks there's another 37.2%. Is this how they worked out more than two thirds? You could then add in another 50% though for talks if they go back to the 1991 borders to make it almost 122%! Well done Bloomberg (and me for not checking first.)

 

 

Support among citizens for Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO. Attitude to foreign countries. Attitude to peace talks (September, 2024)

[SasaS]

Mediazona has +1761 names of KIA, which is now the bi-weekly norm. Total is now 77,143 names of Russian soldiers confirmed as killed in Ukraine. Over 4,300 officers.

 

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

[Section_31]

The last week summed up as far as I can tell.

 

"Trump said to have had call with Putin and warned him not to escalate the war."

 

"Russians say no such talk took place."

 

"Russia escalates attacks in defiance of warning they said never happened. Record number of Russian troops die. Second highest muber of Russian troops die again the day after."

[Bjornebye]

I thought he’d end it in 48 hours?