Russia v Ukraine

[Gnasher]

1 hour ago, TheSire said:

Which is EXACTLY why putting so much stock in journalists opinion etc is close to meaningless. Fast forward 3 months and the weathercocks will have something new to write about.

 

Most journalists are experts in absolutely fuck all. You can't bet everything on the flavour of the month. I mean that dope above can't make his mind up. It's fuck all to do with the penny dropping.

 

You sit there rubbing your hands together when you make 90% of your posts don't you?

 

"I SHOWED THEM! LOOK AT HOW SMART AND MORALLY SUPERIOR I AM"

 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Kemp

 

I take it you haven't read his book.

[TheSire]

49 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Kemp

 

I take it you haven't read his book.

Which ones?

 

Loads of analysts and former military predicted Russia to win the war within weeks.

[Section_31]

Major developments this evening.

 

 

[M_B]

6 hours ago, Gnasher said:

A farce in four parts. The sound of a penny slowly dropping. 

 

 

Have you read those articles? You shitpost headlines that suit your agenda, most likely fed to you by your handlers which is why you have never read the articles.

 

So I'll enlighten you - These are his final thoughts in the Dec 28th article.

Quote

If Russia defeats Ukraine, it will be due to half-hearted support from the US and Europe – upon which Kyiv is wholly dependent – largely because of an unfounded fear of Putin. Israel is also dependent on US support, which in turn is influenced to some extent by America’s allies in Europe. Their backing for Israel is already wavering in the face of a concerted propaganda campaign, as well as fear of Iran.

 

Our priority should not be on pusillanimously trying to avoid escalation, but on doing everything we possibly can to ensure our allies win.

 

 

So his summary is exactly what I have been saying. Maybe he takes his opinions from me? But I am guessing you didn't read his thoughts and just focused on the headlines. I'm also guessing it wasn't you who put together that collage, but got it from a right wing, Russian supporting forum - or your handler.

[DJLJ]

17 minutes ago, M_B said:

 

Have you read those articles? You shitpost headlines that suit your agenda, most likely fed to you by your handlers which is why you have never read the articles.

 

So I'll enlighten you - These are his final thoughts in the Dec 28th article.

 

 

So his summary is exactly what I have been saying. Maybe he takes his opinions from me? But I am guessing you didn't read his thoughts and just focused on the headlines. I'm also guessing it wasn't you who put together that collage, but got it from a right wing, Russian supporting forum - or your handler.

The reason he only repost from twitter. He is just click bait. 

[SasaS]

24 minutes ago, M_B said:

 

Have you read those articles? You shitpost headlines that suit your agenda, most likely fed to you by your handlers which is why you have never read the articles.

 

So I'll enlighten you - These are his final thoughts in the Dec 28th article.

 

 

So his summary is exactly what I have been saying. Maybe he takes his opinions from me? But I am guessing you didn't read his thoughts and just focused on the headlines. I'm also guessing it wasn't you who put together that collage, but got it from a right wing, Russian supporting forum - or your handler.

 

 

[Gnasher]

48 minutes ago, M_B said:

 

Have you read those articles? You shitpost headlines that suit your agenda, most likely fed to you by your handlers which is why you have never read the articles.

 

So I'll enlighten you - These are his final thoughts in the Dec 28th article.

 

 

So his summary is exactly what I have been saying. Maybe he takes his opinions from me? But I am guessing you didn't read his thoughts and just focused on the headlines. I'm also guessing it wasn't you who put together that collage, but got it from a right wing, Russian supporting forum - or your handler.

 

"fed by your handlers". Espionage night over Army cadets was it? 

 

You and others got caught up in the tidal wave of propaganda and film star Zelensky status that you lost the compass they gave you on your weekend cadet course. You've been proved wrong time and time again, although I did try to temper all your exuberance. Nevermind. Admire your optimistic nature  

 

As for the articles  At least Kemps got the good sense to realise where the winds blowing and alter his position accordingly to the events He's right in one respect. You think western aid is open ended? 

 

Anyway here's another 'Russian shill" for you to dismiss; and to save  yourself, I have read it. 

 

 

https://asiatimes.com/2023/12/zelensky-needs-to-go-before-ukraine-collapses/?s=09

 

 

Here's the 'shill'

 

https://yorktowninstitute.org/fellows/stephen-bryen/

[Gnasher]

24 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

 

 

How's the Ukrainian recruitment drive going? Wasn't it you who only recently said they didn't have a manpower shortage?  Who told you that? Your Aussie mate of Facebook? 

 

 

[Gnasher]

Armchair generals. Easiest job in the world  Great fun. Not so much fun when you or your family are doing the fighting though. 

[Gnasher]

39 minutes ago, DJLJ said:

The reason he only repost from twitter. He is just click bait. 

 

Use the ignore button then blert. Off you pop.

[Gnasher]

 

Wars. Great business for some 

 

 

 

[SasaS]

12 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

How's the Ukrainian recruitment drive going? Wasn't it you who only recently said they didn't have a manpower shortage?  Who told you that? Your Aussie mate of Facebook? 

 

 

 

Is there anything that does not go over your head? That was not even aimed at you.

 

More importantly, Mediazona updated Russain casualties identified by name , steady hogh numbers continue with new 1175 names registered in two weeks so their total is now 40,599.

 

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

[Gnasher]

6 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

Is there anything that does not go over your head? That was not even aimed at you.

 

More importantly, Mediazona updated Russain casualties identified by name , steady hogh numbers continue with new 1175 names registered in two weeks so their total is now 40,599.

 

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

 

You answered me when I remarked on Ukraine running out of manpower. Zelensky has just told the army to go on recruitment drive. You were wrong, again. But nevermind.

[Gnasher]

8 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

Is there anything that does not go over your head? That was not even aimed at you.

 

More importantly, Mediazona updated Russain casualties identified by name , steady hogh numbers continue with new 1175 names registered in two weeks so their total is now 40,599.

 

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

 

What are the Ukrainian numbers? I don't think they are published.

[Gnasher]

20 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

Wars. Great business for some 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[M_B]

41 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

"fed by your handlers". Espionage night over Army cadets was it?

 

Poor reply that.

[M_B]

11 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

What are the Ukrainian numbers? I don't think they are published.

 

Neither are the Russian numbers.

[M_B]

36 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Armchair generals. Easiest job in the world  Great fun. Not so much fun when you or your family are doing the fighting though. 

 

Shills. Easiest job in the world  Great fun. Not so much fun when you or your family are doing the fighting though.

[SasaS]

22 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

You answered me when I remarked on Ukraine running out of manpower. Zelensky has just told the army to go on recruitment drive. You were wrong, again. But nevermind.

 

 

When was that? I thought latest news was that he said the army wants the government to mobilize half a million more people and Zelensky said he wants more information and explanation how will they pay for that. You were banging on about some old women being mobilized or something at the time, I lose track.

 

I seem to recall I said none of the analysts I read stressed manpower as an issue, the issue was trained manpower, "pipelines in force generation" as they call it. You've been going on about how they don't have people and will to fight anymore since Popasna, which is June 2022, 18 months ago.

[Gnasher]

On 07/11/2023 at 21:15, SasaS said:

 

I was commenting / expanding on what another poster said. 

 

None of the analysts I read regularly thinks Ukraine has so far had big problems with manpower, they all still think it's the lack of equipment that is the problem.  And of course, training.

 

Hmm.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-26/ukrainian-cabinet-submits-draft-law-to-boost-mobilization-effort

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/26/ukraine-zaluzhny-troop-mobilization/

 

 

[TheSire]

3 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

"fed by your handlers". Espionage night over Army cadets was it? 

 

You and others got caught up in the tidal wave of propaganda and film star Zelensky status that you lost the compass they gave you on your weekend cadet course. You've been proved wrong time and time again, although I did try to temper all your exuberance. Nevermind. Admire your optimistic nature  

 

As for the articles  At least Kemps got the good sense to realise where the winds blowing and alter his position accordingly to the events He's right in one respect. You think western aid is open ended? 

 

Anyway here's another 'Russian shill" for you to dismiss; and to save  yourself, I have read it. 

 

 

https://asiatimes.com/2023/12/zelensky-needs-to-go-before-ukraine-collapses/?s=09

 

 

Here's the 'shill'

 

https://yorktowninstitute.org/fellows/stephen-bryen/

Don't open the first link. Just detected malware.

[SasaS]

11 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

Hmm.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-26/ukrainian-cabinet-submits-draft-law-to-boost-mobilization-effort

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/26/ukraine-zaluzhny-troop-mobilization/

 

 

 

I see your Google still works. Since most of this is behind a paywall and you have not read it, let me explain further (I don't know why I'm doing this but hey, an exercise to start a day may be a good thing, even if it is in futility).

Ukraine has an estimated 500,000 people under arms, Russia either 400,000 according to Ukrainian intelligence or 600,000 according to Putin in and around Ukraine. Neither country has so far conducted a proper, wide mobilization drive, Ukraine was even turning people away in the first months, both foreign and domestic  volunteers (which I didn't understand but they have their own reasons) because it didn't have the capacity to train them and equip them properly, also, security issues. It has largely relied on people who were registered reservists (it had about 400,000 of those as I recall in Feb '22) and didn't mobilize men under the age of 27 unless they volunteered and didn't mobilize women (they may have been drafting women medics and some specialized professions, I don't remember the details any longer). Their main problem has always been that they have been filling the units with personnel without sufficient training, they could not afford to train and gradually "blood" people unto fighting and they had their own serious organizational issues over this.

Now, after almost two years of war, this system has clearly exhausted itself, there are few new volunteers and if they are young, they mostly end up in more elite units, like the 3rd Assault Brigade etc. The system also created a divided society, which those on the front lines feel that they are the only ones bearing the brunt of Russian aggression (soldiers tend to always feel like that to be fair), they are fatigued, many want a break or cannot take it any more - it's an incredibly bloody war with insane casualty rates. Military is therefore constantly pushing for more recruits (which they would be doing anyway, army at war always wants more of everything, as they say).

So back to manpower issues - AFU's main problem has always been shells, equipment (artillery and armour), ability to counter ever developing  Russian EW, lack of longer range missile capabilities, air defense, lack of air force capabilities. That is why most analysts has so far never been stressing the manpower as an issue. I have never heard an explanation for a failed attack or lost position that UAF didn't have enough soldiers, it is always either lack of armour, or they have been seriously outmatched in firepower or other issues. Somebody from RUSI even said on one of the podcast that even if AFU doubles the number of soldiers, it would probably not change a thing, because of training and equipment, increasingly technological character of the war. This is also why I don't understand why would NATO want to exit this theater, it is a perfect opportunity for real world testing of stuff that doesn't require politically sensitive boots on the ground etc. EW will increasingly impact the battlefield dominated by drones and probably soon various other unmanned ground vehicles.

Every army always wants more and more soldiers, the problem is training, equipping and after that supplying and sustaining the numbers, Russians would probably very much like to have additional fully trained and equipped 500,000 troops, they would send them to attack again from Belarus and end this war in a couple of weeks. And vice versa.

 

 

[Gnasher]

26 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

I see your Google still works. Since most of this is behind a paywall and you have not read it, let me explain further (I don't know why I'm doing this but hey, an exercise to start a day may be a good thing, even if it is in futility).

Ukraine has an estimated 500,000 people under arms, Russia either 400,000 according to Ukrainian intelligence or 600,000 according to Putin in and around Ukraine. Neither country has so far conducted a proper, wide mobilization drive, Ukraine was even turning people away in the first months, both foreign and domestic  volunteers (which I didn't understand but they have their own reasons) because it didn't have the capacity to train them and equip them properly, also, security issues. It has largely relied on people who were registered reservists (it had about 400,000 of those as I recall in Feb '22) and didn't mobilize men under the age of 27 unless they volunteered and didn't mobilize women (they may have been drafting women medics and some specialized professions, I don't remember the details any longer). Their main problem has always been that they have been filling the units with personnel without sufficient training, they could not afford to train and gradually "blood" people unto fighting and they had their own serious organizational issues over this.

Now, after almost two years of war, this system has clearly exhausted itself, there are few new volunteers and if they are young, they mostly end up in more elite units, like the 3rd Assault Brigade etc. The system also created a divided society, which those on the front lines feel that they are the only ones bearing the brunt of Russian aggression (soldiers tend to always feel like that to be fair), they are fatigued, many want a break or cannot take it any more - it's an incredibly bloody war with insane casualty rates. Military is therefore constantly pushing for more recruits (which they would be doing anyway, army at war always wants more of everything, as they say).

So back to manpower issues - AFU's main problem has always been shells, equipment (artillery and armour), ability to counter ever developing  Russian EW, lack of longer range missile capabilities, air defense, lack of air force capabilities. That is why most analysts has so far never been stressing the manpower as an issue. I have never heard an explanation for a failed attack or lost position that UAF didn't have enough soldiers, it is always either lack of armour, or they have been seriously outmatched in firepower or other issues. Somebody from RUSI even said on one of the podcast that even if AFU doubles the number of soldiers, it would probably not change a thing, because of training and equipment, increasingly technological character of the war. This is also why I don't understand why would NATO want to exit this theater, it is a perfect opportunity for real world testing of stuff that doesn't require politically sensitive boots on the ground etc. EW will increasingly impact the battlefield dominated by drones and probably soon various other unmanned ground vehicles.

Every army always wants more and more soldiers, the problem is training, equipping and after that supplying and sustaining the numbers, Russians would probably very much like to have additional fully trained and equipped 500,000 troops, they would send them to attack again from Belarus and end this war in a couple of weeks. And vice versa.

 

 

 

You could've just admitted you were wrong.

 

As for your comment on 'not hearing a story of ' misson failure because of men' 4th paragraph down  A recent BBC report, link posted here a little while ago, highlights precisely that, maybe you're the one who didn't read it

 

 

 

Edit; Here you go. Google still works. About 3/4s of the way down in bold.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67565508.amp

 

 

[SasaS]

OK I was wrong and you were right for all of the past 18 months of repeating that they have all been killed and their morale is gone. They will therefore now mobilize all women in Ukraine over 60 and send them to kick the Russians out and win the war by March 1.

[TheSire]

40 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

You could've just admitted you were wrong.

 

As for your comment on 'not hearing a story of ' misson failure because of men' 4th paragraph down  A recent BBC report, link posted here a little while ago, highlights precisely that, maybe you're the one who didn't read it

 

 

 

Edit; Here you go. Google still works. About 3/4s of the way down in bold.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67565508.amp

 

 

I knew it would be that article. There aren't a small number of troops over the river because of a lack of resource. Totally missed the point. There's no way you can be this dim.