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Russia v Ukraine


Bjornebye
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53 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

 

Fuck knows. He posts a picture of Biden eating a Pot Noodle followed by a story about a Belarusian chess tournament and expects it to mean something.


He won’t interact with me anymore. Completely blanking me directly responding, quoting or putting @Gnasher in my posts? 

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2 hours ago, Curly said:


So what needs to happen then? I really don’t get your point on any of it

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see it go the way of this headline in next year. The writing has been on the wall for a while.

 

20231227_171706.jpg

The 37 billion a year needed to keep Ukraine afloat is plainly unsustainable. Especially during a cost of living crisis  

 

20231227_170659.jpg

 

A cost of living crisis where approx 44 million Americans are struggling to feed themselves  

If the Yanks don't change tack Genocide Joe could turn into a one term wonder. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/1-in-8-us-households-struggle-with-hunger-food-insecurity-usda.html

 

 

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1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

 

Fuck knows. He posts a picture of Biden eating a Pot Noodle followed by a story about a Belarusian chess tournament and expects it to mean something.

 

I thought those headlines were clear and fairly self explanatory. 

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On 26/12/2023 at 14:03, TheHowieLama said:

 

It's just a fundamental misunderstanding of how wartime effects a country that produces their own munitions vs one that does not.

 

Wartime has historically low unemployment when folks are making bombs n stuff.

The UK is an example as to what happens to war time "employment" rates when a war ends.

 

 

It will ultimately come down to the economy though. Russia's biggest achievement is that they have managed to shield most of their society from the war, and as long as this is the case, they will feel that they only have to wait the West out. As usual, they are not taking Ukraine seriously enough, and they won't be able to wait Ukraine out. They won't just go away. But Ukraine is way too slow in developing their own military industrial complex.

 

On the other hand, if the inflation continues (they are predicting it will be contained at current level, but let's see) to go up in Q1 and goes firmly and deeply into double digit territory and currency has another big dip as it did in the summer, they may struggle to keep people happy. Another theory I read recently is that it all comes down to the price of oil.

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6 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

 

It will ultimately come down to the economy though.

 

 

The Russian economy after 12 rounds of sanctions is in a far healthier state than plenty in the west. As many predicted.

6 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

Russia's biggest achievement is that they have managed to shield most of their society from the war, and as long as this is the case, they will feel that they only have to wait the West out. As usual, they are not taking Ukraine seriously enough, and they won't be able to wait Ukraine out.

 

Why will Russia not be able to "wait Ukraine out"? 

 

 

6 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

They won't just go away. But Ukraine is way too slow in developing their own military industrial complex.

 

On the other hand, if the inflation continues (they are predicting it will be contained at current level, but let's see) to go up in Q1 and goes firmly and deeply into double digit territory and currency has another big dip as it did in the summer, they may struggle to keep people happy. Another theory I read recently is that it all comes down to the price of oil.

 

Wishing on a star.

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14 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

The Russian economy after 12 rounds of sanctions is in a far healthier state than plenty in the west. As many predicted.

 

It isn't.

The problem with these sanctions is that they have never before been imposed on such a big economy (almost a percentage point of global GDP ), so it is hard for them not to be porous, since the incentives to break them are significant. Also, Russia's main export is oil and gas, and about half of oil has been sold to countries that were never going to join the West's (US) sanctions. If, however, we have a repeat of the situation several years ago when oil futures went into a negative territory, Russia will collapse within a year. Which you can easily see by checking the history of its GDP. Their current budget is calibrated as if oil will remain around US$70-80.

 

14 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Why will Russia not be able to "wait Ukraine out"? 

 

Because unlike the West, Ukrainians don't have other thing to do, more important than defending their own invaded country. Invader has historically always been the party that gets waited out, not the country that has been invaded.

 

 

Wishing on a star.

 

Based on what?

 

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1 hour ago, SasaS said:

 

It isn't.

The problem with these sanctions is that they have never before been imposed on such a big economy (almost a percentage point of global GDP ), so it is hard for them not to be porous, since the incentives to break them are significant. Also, Russia's main export is oil and gas, and about half of oil has been sold to countries that were never going to join the West's (US) sanctions. If, however, we have a repeat of the situation several years ago when oil futures went into a negative territory, Russia will collapse within a year. Which you can easily see by checking the history of its GDP. Their current budget is calibrated as if oil will remain around US$70-80.

 

 

 

 

https://moveforhunger.org/blog/us-food-insecurity-soars-leaving-44-million-americans-without-access-food

 

 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4276594-10m-more-americans-living-in-households-struggling-with-hunger-research/

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/06/excess-winter-deaths-caused-by-cold-homes-in-great-britain-up-by-about-a-third

 

 

https://abc17news.com/money/cnn-business-consumer/2022/05/16/opinion-44-million-people-now-face-extreme-hunger-the-us-must-do-more-to-help/

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44 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

I trust these are articles listing economic indicators proving Russian economy is doing better than Western economies? Or some random shit from Google?

 

 

 

Random shit of Google. 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/06/excess-winter-deaths-caused-by-cold-homes-in-great-britain-up-by-about-a-third

 

 

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8 minutes ago, SasaS said:

You'd need to compare basic macroeconomic indicators if you want to prove a point about Russian economy doing better than the West.

 

 

 

 

 

Ah, but according to the Big Mac index the Ruble is the second most undervalued currency in the world after the Venezuelan Bolivar so, er, yeah, victory to Mother Russia, or some shit.

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12 minutes ago, SasaS said:

You'd need to compare basic macroeconomic indicators if you want to prove a point about Russian economy doing better than the West.

 

 

 

 

 

Where have I said the Russian economy is doing better than the west?

 

It's a side question anyway. 

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1 hour ago, TheSire said:

"The Russian economy after 12 rounds of sanctions is in a far healthier state than plenty in the west. As many predicted."

 

 

Which is true. It is in a better state than plenty in the west. 

 

They've got record low unemployment and a 20%  rise in wage inflation. All despite sanctions. 

 

Obviously not across the board but their economy is defying expectations. Britain, France, Ukraine, Germany not looking so good.

 

https://abc17news.com/money/cnn-business-consumer/2022/05/16/opinion-44-million-people-now-face-extreme-hunger-the-us-must-do-more-to-help/

 

20231227_170659.jpg

 

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