Russia v Ukraine

[Gnasher]

On 07/12/2023 at 13:35, SasaS said:

That article was actually a bit baffling to me, unless it was a deliberate part of the "new narrative".  I've also seen opinions that this left bank activities is Ukraine somehow rushing to disaster, as if they are throwing thousands across the river in some attempt nobody understands.

 

According to various reports, they are deliberately keeping only up to an infantry battalion on the other side, so Russians cannot inflict huge casualties through carpet bombing, and Russians have trouble putting together counterattacks because the AFU forces across the river are well protected from ground attacks by a massive shield consisting of drones and artillery. Also, it is a bit confusing that they would be sending inexperienced troops without a clear understanding of their mission across, instead of some trained assault forces.  

 

Possible explanation on why they send over/in novice fighters?

 

 

 

[Gnasher]

I'd lay a heavy bet that everyone in this room is making serious amounts of money through the war in Ukraine. I'd also bet not one of any of these peoples family will venture within 50 miles of a front line warzone.

 

 

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

 

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching it's invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress said.

Russia has been able to keep its war effort going despite the heavy losses by relaxing recruitment standards and dipping into Soviet-era stockpiles of older equipment. Still, the assessment found that the war has “sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force.”

 

Before the invasion, Russia had a total standing military of approximately 900,000 active-duty troops, including ground troops, airborne troops, special operations and other uniformed personnel, according to the CIA. Since the start of the invasion, Russia has announced plans to increase the size of the armed forces to 1.5 million. The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced several rounds of conscription, including its regular fall conscription cycle on October 1.

Russia has also leaned heavily on convicts marshaled to the fight by the Wagner Group and has increased the age limit for certain categories of citizens to remain in the reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

[Gnasher]

^ US intelligence are almost as bad as the IDF. If that preposterous claim were anywhere near true it'd raise serious questions about the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Army in not gaining any significant land gain.

 

Ames has probably called this right, he usually does.

 

 

 

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

Other than completely misunderstanding the stat Ames is spot on.

[Gnasher]

^ Ames hasn't mentioned the stat. He's just made a general observation on US intelligence.

[TheHowieLama]

He has literally quoted the stat in the tweet you just posted.

[Gnasher]

He did indeed, then made a general observation on American intelligence. He hasn't 'misunderstood' anything. He's simply doubting the accuracy of the information provided.

[TheHowieLama]

Ah right on - I thought he was disagreeing with it.

 

Just his opinion on the umbrella that is US intelligence.

 

What does he do?

[Gnasher]

3 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Ah right on - I thought he was disagreeing with it.

 

Just his opinion on the umbrella that is US intelligence.

 

What does he do?

 

Writer? Not sure exactly. Used to have a radio station in Moscow till Putin kicked him out. Hence the "inexile" title of his War nerd podcast.

[Gnasher]

6 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Ah right on - I thought he was disagreeing with it.

 

Just his opinion on the umbrella that is US intelligence.

 

What does he do?

 

It appears he is disagreeing with it. 90% losses is veering into Ghost of Kiev/Putin has cancer type nonsense. 

[Gnasher]

The Russians have no doubt incurred heavy losses but to lose the amount suggested by US intelligence it'd make it almost impossible to continue fighting. Nevermind to continue fighting and not lose significant amounts of ground.

[TheHowieLama]

7 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

The Russians have no doubt incurred heavy losses but to lose the amount suggested by US intelligence it'd make it almost impossible to continue fighting. Nevermind to continue fighting and not lose significant amounts of ground.

 

I think you are now misunderstanding what that says.

 

Russia has drafted about 3/4 of a million folks into active duty since. They have a larger active military now than they ever have. Increasing the age of conscripts and using convicts has helped them there.

[Gnasher]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

I think you are now misunderstanding what that says.

 

Russia has drafted about 3/4 of a million folks into active duty since. They have a larger active military now than they ever have. Increasing the age of conscripts and using convicts has helped them there.

 

I understand they are taking heavy loses and are constantly having to be replenishing stock (ie men from prison etc) but to lose that amount of mainly front line troops is unfathomable, even if many/most were being replaced over time. It seems a timely exaggeration tbh. 

[Gnasher]

If I had to have an amateur guess at loses and I mean an "amateur' guess I'd go Ukraine 100-150 000. Russkies 150-200 thousand. 

[TheHowieLama]

lose that amount of mainly front line troops is unfathomable

 

Why? 361k is a drop in the bucket for Russia. The only question is that accuracy. It's 87% of what they had then. They would have had an active force of @500k at that time. I think they are double that now.

 

Sasas will be along soon to weigh in on the numbers -- my guess is it is about half that kia.

[SasaS]

I also don't understand the 90 percent reference, the 315k number is about correct though, they have 70k to 80k KIA and very likely about 3 times as much wounded (of which many have probably returned to fight and may have been wounded more than once). You don't need intelligence to get to this number, it's all on the web, plus logic.

 

They have lost around 8k pieces of armour (up to 3k main battle tanks, plus AFVs , IFVs and APCs , which means they have lost equipment for an entire army of 250k soldiers (and accompanying personnel) - 30 soldiers per armour is considered a well equipped army. They have also lost comparable artillery support, air force, engineering vehicles etc for an army of 250k. They have invaded with about 170k plus 40k separatist if I remember correctly. This is also all on the interweb. 

 

This complete insensitivity to such catastrophic losses is the biggest surprise of this war to me. I though that was a thing of the past, expandable Russian lives. I thought once the body bags start coming home in thousands their insane war would stop. They have already lost more than four times as many as the entire USSR lost in Afghanistan in 10 years.

 

I guess the answer is in low losses in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. It doesn't look like they will run out of Buryats and other minorities, convicts and poor people used as cannon fodder any time soon.

 

And some people are still hoping that Putin and the rest of the Kremlin scum will win. That was the second biggest surprise of this war to me.

 

 

 

 

[Gnasher]

8 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

lose that amount of mainly front line troops is unfathomable

 

Why? 361k is a drop in the bucket for Russia. The only question is that accuracy. It's 87% of what they had then. They would have had an active force of @500k at that time. I think they are double that now.

 

Sasas will be along soon to weigh in on the numbers -- my guess is it is about half that kia.

 

Yeah you maybe right, I'm not sure.. That's does seem a phenomenal amount of lost men. I'm suprised they are keeping social order in Russia with them losses. 

[Section_31]

Maybe those hotmail emails from Russian birds are legit then. 

 

My Borris he blow up, I suck toes yes. 

[SasaS]

This attempt at reconstructing what has been happening north of Avdiivka by that guy Tom is now posting instead of his own reports seems interesting and indicative of what the war looks now on the ground.

 

  https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-11-december-2023-battle

 

 

[TheSire]

3 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

Writer? Not sure exactly. Used to have a radio station in Moscow till Putin kicked him out. Hence the "inexile" title of his War nerd podcast.

His short history of Russia book is a decent quick read.

[M_B]

3 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

It appears he is disagreeing with it. 90% losses is veering into Ghost of Kiev/Putin has cancer type nonsense. 

 

It isn't 90% losses. It's 90% dead or wounded. A high percentage of those wounded will be light wounds and the soldiers will return to the front in short time. Many allied units on the Western Front in WW2 had 90% to even 100% casualty rates, yet continued fighting to the end of the war.

[Gnasher]

20 minutes ago, M_B said:

 

It isn't 90% losses. It's 90% dead or wounded. A high percentage of those wounded will be light wounds and the soldiers will return to the front in short time. Many allied units on the Western Front in WW2 had 90% to even 100% casualty rates, yet continued fighting to the end of the war.

 

It'll be seriously wounded, otherwise why bother documenting them? If so they're out of action. That's a lot of manpower to lose from the battlefield and a lot of replacements having to be brought in.The timing of the announcement also raises eyebrows.

 

Anyway if you want to believe it:crack on.

[M_B]

I will thanks. The war has been going on for 22 months now. 

 

An average of 480 dead and wounded per day over that period equals 330k. The Russians are currently averaging around 1k per day and have been for some time. Same with the Bakhmut campaign. I don't think it's far fetched at all.

 

 

...plus the Russians stopped handing out Ladas to families in compensation ages ago. Now they get a sack of potatoes.

[Gnasher]

23 minutes ago, M_B said:

I will thanks. The war has been going on for 22 months now. 

 

An average of 480 dead and wounded per day over that period equals 330k. The Russians are currently averaging around 1k per day and have been for some time. Same with the Bakhmut campaign. I don't think it's far fetched at all.

 

 

...plus the Russians stopped handing out Ladas to families in compensation ages ago. Now they get a sack of potatoes.

 

1400r a month to go to Ukraine now. Much more than the average wage. The soldiers send the money home, the families send goods/food/socks etc to the front line. Report on the tv earlier. Didn't mention compo for death or injury.